Thanksgiving may get all the glory, but don’t sleep on what Black Friday brings to the table.

Black Friday has gone virtual, and I’m all about it, baby.  Do I really need a meat thermometer? Not really. But will I buy one if it’s 50% off online? Damn right. I’ll sit at my computer on Black Friday (or Cyber Monday) and deal hunt with the best of them.

This year, the shopping will have to share the stage with NFL football. For the first time in NFL history, the league is offering up a standalone game on Black Friday. It’s not the greatest game on paper — the Chiefs are currently listed as 12.5-point favorites vs. the Raiders — but who’s going to say no to some extra football?

Let’s dive into everything you need to know for the Black Friday slate, including DFS picks and best bets.

Chiefs (-12.5) vs. Raiders | O/U 42.5

The dirty little secret about the Chiefs is that while they’re great at winning football games, they’re pretty terrible at covering the spread. That’s particularly true whenever the team is favored. They’re just 1-5-1 ATS when laying more than a FG this season, and they’re 22-35-1 ATS in that split since the start of the 2020 season. As a favorite of more than a touchdown, they dip to just 12-20-1.

Winning games that are closer than expected has become the Chiefs’ MO, at least until the playoffs come around. They know that as long as they keep the game close, Patrick Mahomes can ultimately pull it out in the end. That’s exactly what happened vs. the Panthers last week, and it’s a scenario we’ve seen play out repeatedly since the start of last season.

This also isn’t the same dynamic offense that we’ve seen from the Chiefs in years past. Mahomes is having one of the worst statistical seasons of his career, and they’re merely 14th in yards per game and 10th in points. It goes without saying that covering large spreads is difficult if you’re not putting a ton of points on the scoreboard.

We’ve already seen these teams play once this season, and the Raiders managed to cover the spread in Las Vegas. Granted, they needed a late Gardner Minshew touchdown pass to get in that backdoor, but that’s another reason why big underdogs are always live. Even if the Chiefs are winning this game big in the fourth quarter, the Raiders can potentially rally with meaningless scores in garbage time.

In general, targeting big underdogs in divisional matchups is good process. Teams getting at least 10 points in a divisional showdown are 153-125-9 since the start of 2005. We’ve only seen one team fit that trend so far this season, and it was the Cowboys getting 10.5 points vs. the Commanders last week. Not only did they cover the spread, they managed to win the game outright.

The one big change for the Raiders is that Minshew is done for the year after suffering a broken collarbone last week. The team has yet to officially announce a starter, but the reports suggest that Aidan O’Connell will ultimately get the nod. He’s probably a slight downgrade from Minshew — Matthew Freedman has him worth 0.5 fewer points on the spread —  but O’Connell does feel like the superior option to Desmond Ridder.

Add it all up, and I’m grabbing the Raiders and the points in this spot. Maybe this is the week where KC finally puts the hammer down on someone, but there’s no real reason to expect that.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Player Props

Patrick Mahomes Over 33.5 pass attempts (-118; FanDuel)

Even though Mahomes hasn’t had his best year, the Chiefs are starting to open up the offense a bit more. They’ve had a Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) of +12% in two of their past three games, and they’ve had a positive mark in five straight. That’s a big change from the beginning of the season, when the team had a -3% DBOE through their first seven outings.

As a result, Mahomes has attempted at least 34 passes in four of his past five outings. That includes his first game vs. the Raiders. The return of Isiah Pacheco could make them a bit more efficient on the ground, but there’s also a chance he’s limited in his first game back. As long as this isn’t a boat race, I think Mahomes should get back to 34 passes.

Jakobi Meyers Over 5.5 receptions (+115; FanDuel)

Meyers was out of the lineup in O’Connell’s only real outing this season, so we’ve yet to see how he looks with him at quarterback. Still, Meyers has been an absolute target hog since the team lost Davante Adams. He has posted a 28% target share since Week 4, which is an absolutely elite figure.

Meyers is coming off a monster game in Week 12, racking up 15 targets and 10 receptions vs. the Broncos. I doubt he has that type of performance in store for the Chiefs, but he could approach double-digit targets once again. I don’t mind hunting for an over here at +115.

Sincere McCormick anytime touchdown (+550; DraftKings)

Look, odds are McCormick isn’t going to score a touchdown vs. the Chiefs. That said, I can’t help but take a flyer on him at +550. The only running backs the Raiders have at the moment are him, Ameer Abdullah, and Dylan Laube. Abdullah and Laube are both on the smaller side, so McCormick profiles as their top “big back.”

Abdullah got most of the opportunities in the Raiders’ backfield last week, but I can’t believe that will continue for much longer. The team is only playing for the future at this point; why not see what the young pups have in their legs? Laube was out of the picture for most of last week, but I expect him and McCormick to take on larger workloads as the season progresses. Maybe that starts this week.

Chiefs vs. Raiders DFS Targets

DraftKings may not include the Black Friday game on their big Thanksgiving slate, but there are definitely single-game contests available to take part in. Make sure to leverage our projections and rankings to find the best plays,. Here are a few guys that stand out as underpriced to me:

Patrick Mahomes ($16,200 Captain; $10,800 Flex)

I know, I know. This take might be a bit too spicy for some, but this Mahomes guy might be pretty good.

In all seriousness, now that the Chiefs are letting Mahomes air it out more, he’s turned in some strong fantasy performances of late. He’s returned value in four of his past five outings, and he’s gone for at least 24.54 DraftKings points in two of them.

The Raiders aren’t a strong defensive team, so Mahomes should be able to shred in this spot. They’re merely 27th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

On a slate without much star power, Mahomes is a clear and obvious target.

Travis Kelce ($14,400 Captain; $9,600 Flex)

Who else are you going to pair with Mahomes but his superstar tight end? Like Mahomes, Kelce hasn’t had his most dominant season, but he’s racked up all the targets he can handle since Rashee Rice went down with an injury. Per our excellent utilization report, Kelce has posted a 28% target share since Week 5. That’s not just an elite figure for a tight end; it’s an elite figure for anyone.

The Raiders have also been one of the best possible matchups for tight ends this season. They’ve allowed the third-most PPR points per game and the second-highest yardage boost to the position.

The only reason Kelce hasn’t had a better season is because he’s struggled to find the end zone. He has just two receiving touchdowns, which is two fewer than backup TE Noah Gray. Kelce has been credited with 5.4 expected receiving touchdowns per PFF, so perhaps he’ll see some positive regression in this matchup.

Tre Tucker ($6,600 Captain; $4,400 Flex)

While Meyers and Brock Bowers are the clear top two options in Vegas, Tucker has carved out a solid role for himself of late. He has a 17% target share over his past five outings, and he’s been at 20% or higher in three of them.

Tucker’s eight targets last week were tied for his most this season, and he responded with seven catches for 82 yards. He stands out as underpriced at just $4,400, and using him should allow you to spend up for the KC stack.