I'm not a bold guy. Some people refer to me as a human wet blanket.
Hot takes are not my thing.
Nevertheless, I have a few (potentially) bold bets for the 2024 NFL season.
Here they are. (They're all also logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.)
Chargers to Win Super Bowl: +4500 (DraftKings)
Not all longshots are bold. Some are fun, the kind of bets that make people say, "Oooh, I like that."
I don't think this is one of those bets. Instead, this one might make people say, “Gross. The Chargers are in the same division with the Chiefs, and QB Justin Herbert has a foot injury. That's not for me.”
Hence, this bet is probably bold.
And yet I think it's also reasonable.
I break this bet down in detail in my article on my favorite futures longshots, so I won't give the full analysis here, but the quick version is this.
- Herbert and HC Jim Harbaugh are both top-eight at their positions (in my opinion).
- The defense has enough talent (EDGEs Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, CB Asante Samuel Jr., S Derwin James) to improve this year.
- The team has an easy schedule (Nos. 1 and 2 in opponent projected points scored and allowed).
At +4500, the Chargers have a 2.17% implied probability to win the Super Bowl (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), but I think their true probability is probably closer to 3% (+3233), maybe 3.5% (+2757).
Cardinals to Earn No. 1 Seed in NFC: +10000 (Caesars)
Sometimes I take my inspiration from the market when deciding if I actually want to invest in an idea that's bold.
For this bet, the market influenced me in two ways.
First, Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is +5000 to win MVP. If that happens, the odds are high — maybe as high as 90% — that the Cardinals will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Of course, the Cardinals could get the No. 1 seed, and Murray might still have just a 50% chance or so of winning the award.
The MVP market almost certainly has had more money flow into it than the No. 1 seed market, and so I believe it's a stronger "source of truth" with odds more representative of reality. At +5000, Murray has a 1.96% implied probability to be MVP, and if that line is somewhat efficient then it means that the Cardinals' chances of finishing as the top team in the NFC are roughly 4%, which translates to +2400.
So based on the MVP market, there's some real value on the Cardinals to be the No. 1 seed.
Also, this line at Caesars is way out of line with the rest of the market. At most sportsbooks it's +4000, and at DraftKings it's as low as +3500, which means that we're getting tremendous line-shopping value by grabbing it at Caesars at 100-1, which has a 0.99% implied probability.
Do I actually think the Cardinals will finish as the top team in their conference? No. But at 100-1 odds, this bet offers enough reward to warrant the risk.
Dave Canales to Win Coach of the Year: +2000 (Caesars)
After doling out a +10000 bet, I understand that a +2000 wager just doesn't hit the same — but exhibiting any enthusiasm for the Panthers feels sufficiently bold: They had a league-worst 2-15 record last year and are regarded in the various futures markets as the worst team in the conference (+25000 to win Super Bowl, +12000 to win NFC at DraftKings).
But they will almost certainly be better this year thanks to a new coaching staff, the natural development of QB Bryce Young in his second season and a slew of key additions (WRs Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, RB Jonathon Brooks, TE Ja'Tavion Sanders and OGs Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt).
As the 2022 Seahawks QBs coach and 2023 Buccaneers OC, Canales invigorated Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield: Maybe he can do the same with Young — and it helps that the Panthers are in the NFC South, perhaps the weakest division in football.
So what's the best way to leverage in the markets the general thesis that the Panthers will be better than they were last year and could exceed expectations?
Their win total is 5.5 (-110, Caesars). That's neither bold nor exciting.
What about the alternative win total market? We can bet over 9.5 wins at +760 (FanDuel). I like that one — but I might prefer Panthers to make the playoffs at +750 (BetMGM). The payout is comparable, and the latter might be more forgiving, as the Panthers might be able to make the postseason with only nine wins, just as the NFC South-winning Buccaneers did last year.
Here's the thing: If I'm thinking about betting them to make the playoffs, it might be worthwhile to consider wagering on them instead either to get a wild card (+1200, FanDuel) or to win the NFC South (+1300, BetMGM) because of the attractive longer odds. Then again, if the Panthers reach the postseason it might be a coin flip as to how they get there, and it would be terrible to get the basic thesis right (the Panthers will be better than people expect) while missing out on the specific bet (wild card, division winner) — so the general postseason bet is probably preferable.
But let's be honest: A +750 bet doesn't feel bold. We'd like to have longer odds.
Enter Canales as Coach of the Year at 20-1. If the Panthers manage to make the playoffs the season after finishing as the worst team in the NFL, then Canales will be a top candidate for the award.
Given that I have the Panthers projected to make the playoffs at +557 (vs. +750), there's probably some value as well in the correlated COTY market.
Bet Elite Underdogs During the Season
This might not seem especially bold, but I think it's notable — before the season starts — to say, “I will likely be on underdogs throughout the campaign.”
Not all underdogs, of course. But here are those I'll be inclined to bet against the spread (ATS) based on how they've historically performed when getting points (records below).
- Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes (11-1-1 ATS)
- Ravens: QB Lamar Jackson (12-2 ATS)
- Lions: HC Dan Campbell (23-10 ATS)
- Packers: HC Matt LaFleur (22-10 ATS)
- Steelers: HC Mike Tomlin (59-35-3 ATS)
- Cardinals: QB Kyler Murray (25-15-2 ATS)
- Giants: HC Brian Daboll (19-10-1 ATS)
That's right, I said I might back the Giants regularly this year. If that's not bold, nothing is.
