In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Well, that was unexpected … for me at least. If you find yourself among the few and proud to get Monday Night Football correct, take your bow. If you swung and whiffed majestically, left looking the fool … raise your hand (mine slowly goes up).
I cannot believe what we just witnessed from the Detroit coaching staff without proper consequences. Better to be lucky than good sometimes.
And yes, I’m well aware Dan Campbell explicitly tried to warn us that he only has one speed. Coaches lie all the time and I got duped into expecting rationality.
Fred Warner didn’t skimp on the pregame fire, maybe I should’ve listened—I guess sometimes you gamble and you win.
Yes, I somehow missed the entirety of a high-scoring game, waiting for sanity to drop in to say hello—something that never happened. To really emphasize the magnitude of my misread on this one, Dan Campbell didn’t just color in the lines, he dialed up a successful hook and ladder play for a 41-yard TD late in the second quarter. So not only is this maniac risking his star players, but the playbook’s wide open in the process.
But John, why are you being such a chicken? I thought fortune favors the bold and to the victor go the spoils …
While those may be true at times, nothing ever trumps the risk-reward ratio of your ultimate goal. And Campbell almost paid the price for his reckless abandon. Amon-Ra St.Brown came up limping in the third quarter of a game without any meaningful consequence he should have been watching from the sidelines.
When people try to warn me who they are, I need to listen a bit more. Detroit may have gotten away with it this time—eventually, reason will prevail …
Until then … let’s get to the festivities for the New Year …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- College Football: Playoff and Bowl Picks For New Year’s Day
- Wednesday Charts: Can a Swiss cheese defense win it all?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball: A Super Bowl Bet in Week 18
The Best Sweat in Fantasy Football Just Got Sweatier.
Playoff Guillotine League contests are now LIVE.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👏 The Fantasy Life Show's Best of SiriusXM in 2024. Happy New Year!
📈 Upgrades and Downgrades. Who’s trending in the right direction for Week 18 and the playoffs?👀 The biggest edges on the CFB slate. Value on these props.
🪓 Fantasy Football during the NFL Playoffs? Introducing the CHOPionship.
⛳️ PGA season is back in full swing. Everything you need to know for The Sentry 2025.
🏆 A look at the College Football playoff … 12 teams entered, 8 remain.
🤝 Does your fantasy football league play in Week 18? We’ve got you covered.
🤔 Which CFB Playoff team is dominating the bets and handle? A peek behind the curtain at BetMGM.
College Football Playoff—Picks and Predictions for the Quarterfinals
By Gene Clemons
As we bid a fond farewell to 2024 the promise of a new year refocuses our glossed-over eyes and we grasp to the hope that better days filled with fresh opportunities are ahead. And what better way to run head first into the new unknown, singing Auld Lang Syne, than armed with some of the best College Football bets that I can offer?
Never forget that you can find all of my College Football bets and the best bets from all of our talented 'cappers here at Fantasy Life in the bet tracker. More importantly, I believe in any play that I post publicly—so if you decide to ride with me on these picks and they fail to cash, just know that we died together!
With that, let’s cash some tickets! And because I love you all, I'm going to give you some picks beyond just the Playoff Bracket, including a pick for the FCS title game. Why let them have all the fun?
Remaining Quarterfinal matchups:
- Peach Bowl: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas (1 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1, ESPN) — Live odds
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State (5 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1, ESPN) — Live odds
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (8:45 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1, ESPN) — Live odds
Check Out the Spread!
Gene's pick: Georgia -1 (-112 on DraftKings) vs. Notre Dame
This is not South Bend, Indiana, in the middle of December—this is a dome in New Orleans and this is not an upstart Indiana Hoosiers team … these are the DAWGS! They have been there and done that.
This will be as much of a business trip for Kirby Smart and his guys as you could imagine. They've had several weeks to clean up their issues and get healthier. They've also had weeks to get quarterback Gunner Stockton, a former record-setting high school quarterback in the state of Georgia, prepared to be the starter. He may not have a lot of game time experience but as a QB at UGA for the past few seasons, he has been up against one of the best defensive units in the country.
Guess who has not? Notre Dame. All the Dawgs need to do is win. I'll take that bet.
As John Laghezza Would Say … Total Recall!
Gene's pick: Ohio State at Oregon, Over 55 pts (-123 on DraftKings)
Oregon and Ohio State both average 36 ppg. Oregon’s last two games against quality opponents were 45-37 over Penn State and 49-21 over Washington. They beat up Maryland and Michigan, holding both to 18 and 17 points respectively, and those totals still exceeded 55 points. And that doesn't include the 32-31 Oregon victory in their regular-season clash.
This is a playoff game, so we do not have to worry about opt-outs … and we won't worry about scoring, either; both teams will do that in spades. I have no idea who is going to win because the margins are razor-thin, but I do know both will empty the clip to try and secure this win. Points on points on points, baby!
GENE’S TAKE ON ALL THE CFB QUARTERFINAL PLAYOFF GAMES
Be sure to check out our College Football Game Model for today’s Playoff games, and dive into our Player Prop tool to find the biggest edges on the slate!
RELATED CONTENT:
Gene has more CFB Bowl bets outside of the playoff, too!
Wednesday Charts🧠📊—Team Expected Points Added Per Play
For the first official time in 2025, we’ll present the league through the lens of a single image. While no one picture or stat can truly shoulder that load, learning to take the temperature of each team’s offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) will sharpen your game—this per-play metric defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score.
It provides an analytically dense, perspective-laden snapshot that is absolutely worth familiarizing yourself with.
NOTE: The cross is league average. Also, positive EPA is ideal on both sides of the ball—so in this specific case below, the closer to the upper-right corner, the better a team’s combined performance in both phases.
For our purposes, I removed any eliminated teams from contention and stamped each quadrant accordingly. Not sure if I did too good of a job with my generalizations, but here’s your initial macro snapshot of what to expect.
Problems arise, however, with season-long metrics in failing to capture trajectory to account for injuries, roster moves, etc. I promised not to go overboard with the images but in this case, another graphic for the second half is in order.
Takeaways: Notice the clusters of consolidation in the second half, that, in my opinion, provide a much more accurate representation of what to expect going forward.
The Texans or Steelers need an absolute miracle to go deep in the dance. The Broncos, Vikings, and Chiefs can all make a big stop but struggle to move the ball on the ground. The Commanders, Rams, and Chargers haven’t stopped anyone on defense. Can you remember the last time a turnstile won it all?
And that may include the high-flying Bills and Lions, despite their ability to seemingly hang 35-plus points on the scoreboard at will. The Buccaneers, Ravens, and Packers made the most progress as compelling cases for a title run.
And then there are the Eagles, who we’ll get into more detail about below (in the business, they call that a teaser).
HOW DOES THE GAME MODEL VIEW EACH TEAM THIS WEEK?
Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Fly, Eagles, Fly!
THE BET: Eagles To Win Super Bowl (+750; DraftKings) (0.25u ONLY)
Long story short, I’m betting on that EPA graphic above. Philadelphia’s offense showed it can hang with anyone—maybe short of the Ravens or Bills—but make up for it with the league’s best defense by a country mile. Since their Week 6 bye, the Eagles are 11-1 with top-5 metrics all over the spreadsheet on both sides of the ball:
- 30.6 Points Scored Per Game: 4th
- 16.1 Points Allowed Per Game: 1st
- 14.5 Point Differential: 1st
- 2.7 Points Per Drive: T-4th
- 120 Net-Yard Differential: 1st
- +0.12 Offensive EPA/Play: 4th
- +0.14 Defensive EPA/Play: 1st
- 48.4% Offensive Scoring Drive Success: 4th
- 25.2% Defensive Scoring Drive Success: 1st
- 206.0 Rushing Yards Per Game: 1st
- 61.2% Rush Success Rate: 1st
- 8.2 Passing Yards Per Attempt: T-5th
- 90 Explosive Plays, Offense: 2nd
- 253.4 Yards Allowed Per Game: 1st
- 4.0 Yards Allowed Per Rush: T-5th
- 6.1% Explosive Rush Rate Allowed: 2nd
- +0.05 Defensive EPA/Dropback: 1st
- 157.4 Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 1st
- 56.6% Tackle Rate: 1st
- 262 Defensive Splash Plays: 1st
The list goes on and on (and on, and on, and on). By all indications, Jalen Hurts should be back under center and ready to go when the brightest lights turn on. Considering the utter domination from their interior on both sides of the ball, I can’t wrap my mind around Philadelphia as a +750 longshot to take home the crown.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
I’ve done more than my share of partying so no judgments here—but please be safe and do not drive under the influence.
I hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
