In Today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
We talk about stats a lot here. As we should—data is how you make informed decisions. We have some of the best data in the industry, led by Dwain McFarland and his Utilization Report, so we’d be foolish not to lean on it.
But sometimes you’ve gotta throw that all out the window.
Mike Tomlin is the NFL’s magic man. It doesn’t matter what type of roster he has; he always finds a way to get the job done. That’s not hyperbole. Tomlin has coached the Steelers for 17 seasons, and he’s never once had a losing record. He’s won less than nine games just three times. Last year, the team was 21st in scoring differential and 25th in yardage differential… and they still managed to win 10 games in one of the toughest divisions in football.
Expectations for the Steelers are pretty muted heading into 2024. Their win total is set at just 8.5 games, and you can get a tasty +135 on the over. The NFC North is going to be even tougher than it was last year, with the Bengals expected to return to prominence with a healthy Joe Burrow.
So the big question is—can Tomlin and the Steelers do it again? Let’s dive in.
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What is in today’s newsletter?
Death. Taxes. The Steelers posting a winning record.
Geoff Ulrich highlights his favorite options for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Watercooler: Simone Biles and Katie Ledecky solidify GOAT status.
BEST FUTURES BET FOR THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS
by Matt LaMarca
Steelers Over 8.5 wins (+135; DraftKings)
I get the reason for the pessimism with the Steelers. By most measures, they were not a good football team. They had an expected record of 7.9-9.1, and it could’ve been even worse. The defense was sixth in points allowed but 21st in yardage, and that kind of gap suggests good fortune. Ultimately, it would not be a shock if they took a step backward.
However, the Steelers have a track record of being an excellent defensive squad. They’ve been top 10 in points allowed in four of the past five years, and they have plenty of blue-chippers on that side of the ball. T.J. Watt remains one of the most dominant defensive players in the league, and Alex Highsmith is an elite running mate. Minkah Fitzpatrick should be better after an injury-plagued 2023 campaign, while the team acquired Patrick Queen in free agency.
Mike Tomlin always seems to get the best out of whoever is on the field, so I’m expecting another strong showing from this unit.
The offense is a different story. The Steelers were one of the worst offensive teams in football last season, but that tends to happen when you have poor quarterback play. Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph all started games for them last year, and they ranged from mediocre to downright bad.
This year, the team will hand the reigns to Justin Fields and/or Russell Wilson. That might not be the most intimidating duo, but it’s worlds better than what they had. Fields has shown promise at times, and while Wilson’s best days might be in the past, he isn’t that far removed from being one of the best quarterbacks in football. If either player can establish themselves as even an average starter at the position, this offense has the potential to be massively better than it was last season.
Still, all that is simply the icing on the cake. This bet is all about Tomlin. Not all NFL coaches are created equally. Some are motivators. Some are game planners. Some are like CEOs.
Tomlin is simply the best leader of men in the business. He’s gotten the best out of whoever has walked through the door in Pittsburgh. The man even somehow kept Antonio Brown in check. I expect him to squeeze whatever toothpaste is left in the tube out of Fields and Wilson.
Nine wins might feel aggressive, but no one expected 10 wins last year. Trust Tomlin to pull another rabbit out of his hat.
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Best Bets for 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year
by Geoff Ulrich
Offensive ROY - Jayden Daniels (+650; FanDuel)
I mentioned Daniels for this award back in early June, and he remains my preferred bet for top offensive rookie. Daniels is a top-three draft pick and will be one of the most explosive runners at his position the second he takes his first regular-season snap.
Here are some stats from Ian Hartitz’s player breakdown of Daniels' college career that illustrate the kind of rushing upside he brings to the table.
In his last four games in the NCAA, Daniels rushed for 11-163-1, 12-234-2, 10-96-2, and 11-120-0
Daniels' missed-tackle rate in college (0.31 per rush attempt) was better than Lamar Jackson (0.25) and Justin Fields (0.24).
He posted a 28.5% explosive run play rate.
He’s also done nothing to quell the argument that he might be a better passer than Caleb Williams.
Grainy training camp clips aside, the gap in odds between Williams (+135; 42.5% implied probability) and Daniels (+650; 13.33% IP) continues to make no sense. Both are QBs who are virtual locks to start Week 1, both are former Heisman winners, and both are on teams projected with the third-best win/loss total in their division.
QBs have only won OROY four times over the last 10 seasons, but after Stroud won this award last season, three of the last five winners of OROY have now been QBs taken in the top six draft picks. As long as the gap between Daniels and Williams remains high, taking Daniels to win OROY is one of my favorite NFL futures bets for 2024.
Defensive ROY - Laiatu Latu (+550; DraftKings)
I thought the Colts struck gold when Latu fell to them in the draft. He looks like the best pass rusher of this year’s rookie group by a longshot and likely only fell because of some past medical concerns.
The stats don’t lie, though. Latu led the nation in tackles for loss per game (1.8) in 2023 and ranked fourth nationally in sacks per game (1.08). He may lack pure power, but his speed has already impressed at camp.
Latu was projected as a reserve/backup to start the season simply because of the Colts' stout defensive line, but that changed when starting defensive end Samson Ebukam was lost for the season last week with a torn Achilles. Ebukam led the Colts with 9.5 sacks last season, and his loss means the team will be relying on Latu to produce from the get-go.
Latu has already pulled even at some sportsbooks for DROY with Dallas Turner, but now that Latu’s path is clear, he’s got the better chance to lead all rookies in sacks—and potentially his team.
Sacks are an easy-to-track stat for defensive players and are also easy to present to the public. Defensive linemen have won this award six of the last 11 years, and they’ve each tallied at least 7 sacks:
Aaron Donald (2014) – 9 sacks
Joey Bosa (2016) – 10.5 sacks
Nick Bosa (2019) – 13 sacks
Chase Young (2020) – 7.5 sacks
Micah Parsons (2021) – 9 sacks
Will Anderson Jr. (2023) – 7 sacks
As long as Latu is second in odds to Dallas Turner, I think he’s a good player to jump on before this year’s regular season gets underway.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
☀️ College football — it’s more than just the video game that everyone has played the past few weeks. Thor Nystrom breaks down his favorite bets for the Sun Belt Conference.
🐐 Another GOAT beckons. Simone Biles added to her already insane resume with her sixth gold medal.
🥇 Speaking of GOATs, Katie Ledecky cruised to another gold in the 1500m freestyle. Why did anyone else bother showing up?
⬇️ Make it 17 in a row for the slumping White Sox. Needless to say, betting on them has not gone well this season.
👨🦳 It remains to be seen if the 76ers can win it all, but Paul George has already won. He’s officially the last man standing from the 2010 draft class.
