We have three games on Saturday, following Friday's 27-17 Notre Dame/Indiana game that kicked off the tournament. Below are my best bets for these games, which include my “Alternate Thor Line” — a true point spread generated by my model. 

You can find updated odds here. My model can be found here. 

Good luck, enjoy the games, and happy holidays to all!  

SMU at Penn State

Spread: PSU -9  | ATL: PSU -7.9

Dec. 21, 12 p.m. | TNT/MAX | University Park, Pennsylvania

Noteworthy Portal, Opt-out and Injury News

SMU

  • SMU starting TE RJ Maryland (Injury-OFY)

Penn State

  • Penn State starting RT Anthony Donkoh (Injury-OFY)

Handicap

SMU is expecting to get back CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson from injury after he missed the ACC title game due to an undisclosed injury. These teams are relatively healthy outside of that.

I like the way SMU matches up in this game.

SMU’s defense has one big Achilles heel: It gives up too many explosive passes (No. 72 marginal explosiveness). It is very good against the run (No. 5 EPA/run), and mucking up passing efficiency (No. 10 success rate).

Penn State is a run-heavy team that really needs its ground game working to field an effective offense. The Nittany Lions are not explosive through the air (No. 42 marginal explosiveness, No. 83 yards per successful attempt). For PSU to give themselves a chance to exploit SMU’s biggest weakness, they’ll have to assume the elevated risk of turnovers from QB Drew Allar.

Meanwhile, SMU is going to be able to stay multiple on offense in this game. The run game should be viable as the get-me-over pitch it’ll be used as. Whatever chance SMU has of pulling the stunner will rest with SMU’s passing offense. 

You can throw on Penn State (No. 32 success rate, No. 51 marginal explosiveness), and SMU’s pass offense, which ranks No. 11 in EPA/dropback, is both efficient and explosive.

Because of this, we’re going over on SMU QB Kevin Jennings at an extremely-reasonable passing yardage number of 225.5. Jennings has thrown for 225 yards or more in nine-straight games! The last time he didn’t was his very first start of the season on Sept. 21 against TCU. 

We also like SMU to make this a game late in the fourth quarter. 

Thor’s Bets: 

  • SMU +9 
  • SMU QB Kevin Jennings Over 225.5 Passing Yards

Clemson at Texas

Spread: Texas -13  | ATL: Texas -11.4

Dec. 21, 4 p.m. | TNT/MAX | Austin, Texas

Noteworthy Portal, Opt-out and Injury News

Clemson

  • Rotational WR Troy Stellato (Injury/Portal)

Texas

  • Starting WR Isaiah Bond (Injury-Questionable)

Handicap

Texas QB Quinn Ewers and LT Kelvin Banks Jr. are both listed as probable on the updated injury report and likely to play. A potential top-10 overall pick in April’s draft, Banks Jr. didn’t play in the SEC title game. 

Texas WR Isaiah Bond is facing "long odds" to play due to a high-ankle sprain that got reaggravated in the SEC title game, according to ESPN's Pete Thamel. Fortunately, Texas has ridiculous WR depth – little tangible effect should be felt from Bond’s theoretical absence with WRs Ryan Wingo and Silas Bolden assuming more snaps.

Long story short, we don’t trust Texas. The Longhorns played only one team inside the top-14 of our power rankings – and it lost twice to Georgia, including in OT in the SEC title game with Georgia’s backup quarterback finishing out the game.

Texas QB Ewers has significantly regressed this season, going from an 86.1 PFF grade in 2023 to 71.9 this year (essentially equivalent to his grade in 2022 as a redshirt freshman). Texas’ pass-leaning offense is going to find sledding tough against a Clemson pass defense that ranks No. 20 EPA/dropback. 

We like the under on Ewers at 260.5 passing yards in the prop market. The books continue to set Ewers’ lines as though this were last year. Prior to the SEC title game, Ewers had thrown for 218 yards or less in six-of-eight games.

On the other side, Klubnik’s resurgence this season probably hasn’t been talked about enough. His 88.0 PFF grade is superior to Ewers’ last season. We like the over on his 217.5 passing yardage number in the prop market. Klubnik has gone over this number in six of his last eight games. The gamescript isn’t likely to flip against him in this game.

Thor’s Bets: 

  • Clemson +13 
  • Clemson QB Cade Klubnik Over 217.5 Passing Yards
  • Texas QB Quinn Ewers Under 260.5 Passing Yards

Tennessee at Ohio State

Spread: Ohio State -7.5  | ATL: Ohio State -3

Dec. 21, 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN | Columbus, Ohio

Noteworthy Portal, Opt-out and Injury News

Ohio State 

  • Starting LT Josh Simmons (Injury-OFY)
  • Starting C Seth McLaughlin (Injury-OFY)

Tennessee

  • Starting WR Bru McCoy (Injury-Questionable)
  • Starting WR Dont’e Thornton (Injury-Questionable

Thor’s Bets: 

  • Tennessee +7.5 
  • Ohio State QB Will Howard Under 11.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Ohio State RB  Quinshon Judkins Under 58.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson Under 49.5 Rushing Yards