Chiefs vs Bills Predictions and Preview for the AFC Championship
In this breakdown of my Chiefs vs Bills Predictions for their AFC Championship matchup, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.
I also …
- Provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.).
- Highlight any potential best bets I have on the game.
- Note any players I like to outperform expectations.
Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”
And be sure to check out my Eagles vs Commanders Predictions for the NFC Championship.
Obligatory notes.
Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of Sat., Jan. 25, 3:30 a.m. ET.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
You can get 10% off your FL+ sub with the promo code FREEDMAN.
And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Chiefs vs Bills AFC Championship Betting Odds
- Spread & Total: KC -2 | O/U 48.5
- KC ML: -130 (DraftKings)
- BUF ML: +110 (FanDuel)
Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
A spread of -2 means the Chiefs need to win by at least three points to cash. If the Bills win outright or lose by no more than one, they cash. If the Chiefs win by exactly two, it's a push. A total of 48.5 means that 49 or more points cashes the over and 48 or fewer points cashes the under. A -130 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $130 to win $100; a +110 ML, $100 to win $110.
Although Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is just 4-4 ATS and ML against Bills QB Josh Allen for his career, he's a golden 3-0 ATS and ML against Allen in the playoffs.
When the moment matters most, Mahomes almost always seems to be his best.
Chiefs vs Bills Implied Team Totals
- KC Team Total: 25.25
- BUF Team Total: 23.25
Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.
Projections for AFC Championship Chiefs vs. Bills
Bills vs Chiefs Betting Projections
- Spread: KC -1.9
- Total: 49.2
- ML: +/-117.4
Chiefs vs. Bills Final Score Prediction
- Chiefs: 25.5
- Bills: 23.7
Since this projected score is technically impossible, here's my "informed gut" projection: KC 27, BUF 23.
Bills vs Chiefs Projected Odds to Win
- Chiefs: 54.0%
- Bills: 46.0%
Chiefs Player Projections For The AFC Championship
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 22.8 | 33.5 | 240.7 | 1.73 | 0.56 | 4.5 | 20.1 | 0.11 | 18.1 |
Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
| Player | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 8.8 | 36.2 | 0.35 | 1.2 | 8.6 | 0.03 | 7.3 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 7.4 | 32 | 0.24 | 1.1 | 7.4 | 0.03 | 6 |
| Samaje Perine | 0.9 | 4 | 0.01 | 1 | 7.8 | 0.05 | 2.1 |
| Carson Steele | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1.1 | 6.3 | 0.08 | 4.3 | 51.4 | 0.35 | 10.5 |
| Hollywood Brown | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 35.2 | 0.18 | 6.2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 32.3 | 0.29 | 6.3 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 0.07 | 1.3 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 9.3 | 0.07 | 1.8 |
| Travis Kelce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 61.3 | 0.44 | 11.8 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 19 | 0.2 | 4 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.02 | 0.3 |
Fantasy points are half-PPR scoring and based only on statistics shown. They do not include fumbles, two-point conversions, and miscellaneous TDs. Player order is by position and depth chart priority.
For our player-focused betting tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as our Player Prop Edge Table.
Bills Player Projections For The AFC Championship
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20.2 | 30.5 | 227.3 | 1.42 | 0.57 | 7.6 | 37.2 | 0.54 | 20.6 |
Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
| Player | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 12.3 | 55.5 | 0.45 | 1.6 | 11.7 | 0.08 | 10.7 |
| Ray Davis | 3.8 | 15 | 0.13 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 0.04 | 3.1 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 13.1 | 0.06 | 1.2 | 11.1 | 0.07 | 3.8 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.01 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.01 | 0.3 |
| Khalil Shakir | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0 | 4.9 | 54.9 | 0.23 | 9.4 |
| Amari Cooper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 29.2 | 0.22 | 5.3 |
| Keon Coleman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 33.1 | 0.22 | 5.7 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 15.8 | 0.14 | 3.1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1.7 | 16 | 0.11 | 3.2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | 35 | 0.16 | 6.1 |
| Dawson Knox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 15.3 | 0.12 | 2.9 |
| Quintin Morris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.02 | 0.3 |
Top Fantasy Plays for AFC Championship Chiefs vs. Bills
Chiefs Fantasy Rankings
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Chiefs in their skill-position groups for the Conference Championships.
- Patrick Mahomes: QB4
- Kareem Hunt: RB6
- Isiah Pacheco: RB8
- Xavier Worthy: WR3
- Hollywood Brown: WR7
- DeAndre Hopkins: WR9
- Travis Kelce: TE1
Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor.
For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.
It's amazing that the Chiefs have one of the greatest QBs of all time and are just two wins away from winning a historic third straight Super Bowl … and yet outside of Kelce, they have no elite fantasy producers.
Bills Fantasy Rankings
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Bills in their skill-position groups for the Conference Championships.
- Josh Allen: QB1
- James Cook: RB2
- Ty Johnson: RB5
- Ray Davis: RB7
- Khalil Shakir: WR4
- Keon Coleman: WR8
- Curtis Samuel: WR10
- Dalton Kincaid: TE4
- Dawson Knox: TE6
Allen is the rare rising tide that lifts almost no boats. Outside of Cook and Shakir, the Bills have no consistent producers around their QBs.
Betting Records and Trends for AFC Championship Chiefs vs. Bills
Chiefs 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 7-10-1, -19.6% ROI | Favorites: 6-8-1, -16.8% ROI | Home: 3-6, -35.3% ROI
- ML: 16-2, 27.1% ROI | Favorites: 15-0, 37.9% ROI | Home: 9-0, 35.6% ROI
- Under: 11-7, 17.1% ROI | Home: 5-4, 6.4% ROI
Betting performance data is via Action Network.
The Chiefs have legitimately decoupled winning and covering by strategically playing down to the level of their opponents while still managing to emerge victorious. With any other team, I would interpret this as a long-term sign of fraudulence. But with the Chiefs, HC Andy Reid, and QB Patrick Mahomes, this pattern has the scent of intelligent design.
Bills 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 12-7, 19.7% ROI | Underdogs: 3-2, 15.4% ROI | Road: 5-4, 5.9% ROI
- ML: 15-4, 21.2% ROI | Underdogs: 3-2, 28.2% ROI | Road: 5-4, 2.6% ROI
- Over: 12-7, 18.9% ROI | Road: 5-4, 3.7% ROI
The Bills this year have been strong ATS and ML but significantly less so on the road.
Chiefs Betting Trends
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 68-59-4 ATS, 3.9% ROI | 105-26 ML, 17.6% ROI
- Mahomes Since 2022: 27-28-2 ATS, -5.8% ROI | 47-10 ML, 21.0% ROI
- Mahomes at Home: 31-35-1 ATS, -8.6% ROI | 54-13 ML, 5.4% ROI
- Mahomes as Favorite: 56-57-3 ATS, -3.8% ROI | 94-22 ML, 9.9% ROI
- Mahomes as Favorite of -3 or Less: 14-7 ATS, 27.7% ROI | 14-7 ML, 13.6% ROI
- Mahomes Outside Division: 50-39-2 ATS, 8.2% ROI | 70-21 ML, 16.1% ROI
- Mahomes in Playoffs: 13-6 ATS, 31.5% ROI | 16-3 ML, 38.4% ROI
- Mahomes vs. Winning Teams: 36-28-2 ATS, 8.8% ROI | 51-15 ML, 20.3% ROI
- Mahomes in 35 Degrees or Less: 15-7 ATS, 34.0% ROI | 18-4 ML, 25.2% ROI
Throughout his career (and not just in 2024), Mahomes has had a propensity to win without covering, especially since 2022, when the team parted with No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill.
Even so, Mahomes has been solid ATS (and strong ML) outside division, as a short favorite, in the playoffs, against teams with winning records, and in the cold.
Bills Betting Trends
- QB Josh Allen: 64-53-5 ATS, 4.7% ROI | 83-39 ML, 11.9% ROI
- Allen on Road: 30-24-2 ATS, 6.0% ROI | 32-24 ML, 11.4% ROI
- Allen as Underdog: 20-14-2 ATS, 12.8% ROI | 16-20 ML, 24.6% ROI
- Allen Outside Division: 43-34-3 ATS, 7.2% ROI | 53-27 ML, 16.6% ROI
- Allen in Playoffs: 5-7 ATS, -20.9% ROI | 7-5 ML, -16.0% ROI
- Allen vs. Winning Teams: 31-22-1 ATS, 11.1% ROI | 33-21 ML, 22.5% ROI
- Allen in 35 Degrees or Less: 14-11-2 ATS, 6.6% ROI | 20-7 ML, 1.8% ROI
Allen has been unremarkable but profitable as a betting asset in most situations throughout his career … but the playoffs is not one of them.
Chiefs vs. Bills Injury Report and External Factors
I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.
Chiefs Notable Injuries
Not one player has an injury designation this week for the Chiefs. They are wonderfully healthy.
Bills Notable Injuries
- SS Taylor Rapp (hip): Out after exiting last week early and missing every practice.
- CB Christian Benford (concussion): Questionable but missed practice on Friday and is still in the league's protocol.
The Bills could be without two starters in their secondary.
Chiefs vs Bills External Factors
- Home-Field Advantage: The Chiefs have a diminished HFA in this spot because the Bills have a similar turf surface at Highmark Stadium.
- Travel: This is the first meaningful road game for the Bills since Week 15. At the same time, this is the second straight home game for the Chiefs, who haven't played a consequential away game since Week 17.
- Rest: The Chiefs have an extra day of rest because they played on Saturday last week … and the week before that they were on bye.
- Weather: The forecast calls for winds of just two mph but a temperature of 31 degrees.
Chiefs vs Bills Anytime TD Player Prop
- James Cook Anytime TD: +145 (FanDuel)
- Proj: 0.52 TDs | +124.6 to Score
Cook this season has 19 TDs in 18 games (including playoffs). Since the Week 12 bye specifically he has eight TDs in eight games with a score in all but two.
Against the Chiefs in Week 11, he had two TDs.
He's not Derrick Henry, but Cook might be the most underappreciated scorer at the RB position.
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
- Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)
