Chiefs vs Chargers Predictions: Previewing Week 14 AFC West Battle
The top two teams in the AFC West square off in Week 14 and Matthew Freedman is here with his Chiefs vs Chargers Predictions:
In this breakdown of the Week 14 Chiefs-Chargers matchup, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via a boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.
I also …
- Provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.)
- Highlight any potential best bets I have on the game
- Note any players I like to outperform expectations.
Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”
*All data, projections, and analysis are as of 11:30 p.m. ET on Thu., Dec. 5.
*Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
Chiefs vs Chargers Week 14 Betting Odds
- Spread & Total: KC -4 | O/U 43
- KC ML: -200 (BetMGM)
- LAC ML: +180 (DraftKings)
Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
A spread of -4 means the Chiefs need to win by at least five points to cash. If the Chiefs win by exactly four, the bet pushes. If the Chargers win outright or manage to lose by no more than three, they cash. A total of 43 means that 44 or more points cashes the over, 42 or fewer points cashes the under, and 43 pushes. A -200 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $200 to win $100; a +180 ML, $100 to win $180.
The Chiefs enjoyed a 17-10 victory over the Chargers in Los Angeles when these teams played in Week 4.
I think another low-scoring game is what we'll see this week.
Implied Team Totals Chiefs vs. Chargers
- KC Team Total: 23.5
- LAC Team Total: 19.5
Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.
Betting Projections For Chiefs vs. Chargers Week 14
Chiefs-Chargers Betting Projections
- Spread: KC -4.5
- Total: 41.5
- ML: +/-199.1
Chiefs-Chargers Projected Odds to Win
- Chiefs: 66.6%
- Chargers: 33.4%
Final Score Prediction For Chiefs Chargers
- Chiefs: 23
- Chargers: 18.5
*based on my NFL game projections.
Best Bet For Chiefs vs. Chargers Week 14
The Chargers are an under team, and the under has historically been the sharp side at Arrowhead Stadium.
Points tend to be rare in outdoor divisional games, especially in December and January, when the under is 344-274-16 (8.1% ROI).
With a forecast wind speed of nine mph, we are already in the zone where game totals start to trend downward, and we are so close to the double-digit threshold that signifies true impact.
- Outdoor Under With Wind of 8-10 mph: 503-453-12, 1.9% ROI
- Outdoor Under With Wind of 10-plus mph: 657-495-12, 10.2% ROI
The under in this game is one of my favorite bets of the week.
Best Bet: Under 43 (-110, Caesars)
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Betting Records and Trends For Chiefs vs Chargers
Chiefs: 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 4-7-1, -27.8% ROI | Favorites: 3-6-1, -33.4% ROI | Home: 2-4, -36.3% ROI
- ML: 11-1, 29.5% ROI | Favorites: 10-0, 33.5% ROI | Home: 6-0, 34.7% ROI
- Under: 6-6, -4.2% ROI | Home: 3-3, -4.3% ROI
Betting performance data is via Action Network.
This year, the Chiefs have made an art of winning without covering, especially as favorites and at home. In the best of ways—like an aging-but-savvy heavyweight boxer trying to save his strength for the later rounds—HC Andy Reid's team seems to play to the level of its opponent every game.
Chargers: 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 8-3-1, 37.9% ROI | Underdogs: 0-2-1, -66.7% ROI | Road: 4-2, 29.1% ROI
- ML: 8-4, 6.4% ROI | Underdogs: 0-3, -100% ROI | Road: 4-2, 12.5% ROI
- Under: 8-4, 27.5% ROI | Road: 5-1, 59.1% ROI
The Chargers have been profitable this year, but they've been better at covering than winning, and they've been subpar at both as dogs.
With totals, they've been a through-and-through under team, given their stingy defense (No. 4 with a -0.076 EPA, per RBs Don't Matter), slow offensive pace (No. 3 with 28.6 seconds per snap, per FTN), and run-based attack (No. 9 with a 46.7% rush rate).
Chiefs: Betting Trends
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 65-57-4 ATS, 3.4% ROI | 100-26 ML, 16.4% ROI
- Mahomes at Home: 30-33-1 ATS, -7.5% ROI | 51-13 ML, 3.9% ROI
- Mahomes as Favorite: 53-55-3 ATS, -4.7% ROI | 89-22 ML, 8.3% ROI
- Mahomes as Home Favorite: 30-32-1 ATS, -6.0% ROI | 51-12 ML, 5.6% ROI
- Mahomes in Division: 18-19-2 ATS, -3.6% ROI | 34-5 ML, 20.3% ROI
- Mahomes Since 2022: 24-26-2 ATS, -8.0% ROI | 42-10 ML, 18.5% ROI
- Mahomes Home Under: 38-25-1, 15.6% ROI
- Mahomes Home Under after September: 35-18-1, 26.3% ROI
The tendency the Chiefs have exhibited this year of being better at winning than covering is not just a 2024 thing. That has been the case throughout Mahomes' career—but especially since 2022, when the team traded away No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill.
Mahomes' ability to win without covering is maybe most manifest in division, where he has been a mediocre ATS asset but a strong ML dominator.
Relative to market expectations, the Chiefs with Mahomes have been a diminished version of themselves as favorites and at home, where the under has historically been a sharp bet, particularly in the colder months.
Chargers: Betting Trends
- HC Jim Harbaugh: 50-30-4 ATS, 20.8% ROI | 57-26-1 ML, 15.7% ROI
- Harbaugh on Road: 26-13-2 ATS, 28.6% ROI | 27-14 ML, 30.8% ROI
- Harbaugh as Underdog: 10-7-3 ATS, 12.4% ROI | 9-11 ML, 32.3% ROI
- Harbaugh as Road Underdog: 9-6-1 ATS, 16.6% ROI | 8-8 ML, 49.8% ROI
- Harbaugh in Division: 12-14-2 ATS, -8.6% ROI | 17-10-1 ML, -7.5% ROI
- Harbaugh vs. Reid: 2-0-1 ATS, 64.5% ROI | 2-1 ML, 124.2% ROI
- QB Justin Herbert: 40-33-2 ATS, 5.3% ROI | 38-37 ML, -14.6% ROI
- Herbert on Road: 22-15 ATS, 14.2% ROI | 18-19 ML, -9.4% ROI
- Herbert as Underdog: 13-12-1 ATS, -0.2% ROI | 6-20 ML, -43.3% ROI
- Herbert as Road Underdog: 10-6 ATS, 19.9% ROI | 5-11 ML, -23.2% ROI
- Herbert in Division: 14-9-1 ATS, 17.3% ROI | 11-13 ML, -18.1% ROI
- Herbert vs. Reid: 5-2-1 ATS, 36.5% ROI | 2-6 ML, -40.4% ROI
Throughout his tenure as an NFL HC, Harbaugh has been great on the road and as a dog and regretful in division.
Herbert has been an admirable ATS producer but an unfortunate ML loser—but I think that says more about his previous HCs than about him: He on his own has been good enough (especially on the road, as a dog, and in division) to keep the Chargers competitive, but his previous coaches were not good enough to situate the team for success on a weekly basis. Hence, covers but losses.
With Harbaugh, however, Herbert has started to turn covers into wins—and both of them have had success against Reid (albeit in a limited sample).
Player Projections for Chiefs vs Chargers Week 14
Chiefs Player Projections For This Week
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23.8 | 34.8 | 247.3 | 1.64 | 0.63 | 4.3 | 18.4 | 0.09 | 17.6 |
Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
| Player | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 11.1 | 48.4 | 0.36 | 1.7 | 12.3 | 0.06 | 9.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 8.1 | 31 | 0.26 | 1.2 | 8.8 | 0.05 | 6.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.01 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 0.04 | 1.8 |
| Carson Steele | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.01 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.01 | 0.4 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.2 | 49.1 | 0.34 | 9 |
| Xavier Worthy | 0.7 | 3.7 | 0.03 | 3 | 39.3 | 0.27 | 7.6 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 18.6 | 0.09 | 3.1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 17.8 | 0.1 | 3.2 |
| Mecole Hardman | 0.5 | 2.9 | 0.01 | 0.6 | 6.5 | 0.03 | 1.5 |
| Travis Kelce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.1 | 57.4 | 0.4 | 11.2 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 28.2 | 0.24 | 5.6 |
| Anthony Firkser | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.02 | 0.2 |
Chargers Player Projections For This Week
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 20.9 | 32.1 | 230.2 | 1.23 | 0.45 | 5 | 20.7 | 0.14 | 16.2 |
Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
| Player | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 42.7 | 0.39 | 1 | 5.9 | 0.02 | 7.8 |
| Kimani Vidal | 5.5 | 21.4 | 0.14 | 1.4 | 9 | 0.06 | 4.9 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1.8 | 6.4 | 0.05 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 0.02 | 1.8 |
| Ladd McConkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.2 | 63.5 | 0.31 | 10.8 |
| Quentin Johnston | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 3 | 41.7 | 0.27 | 7.3 |
| Joshua Palmer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 34.2 | 0.15 | 5.6 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.7 | 9.6 | 0.06 | 1.7 |
| Derius Davis | 0.6 | 2.8 | 0.01 | 0.8 | 8.6 | 0.04 | 1.9 |
| DJ Chark | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 0.02 | 0.6 |
| Will Dissly | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.1 | 37.7 | 0.2 | 7 |
| Tucker Fisk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 7.2 | 0.05 | 1.5 |
| Stone Smartt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 0.02 | 0.9 |
Fantasy points are half-PPR scoring and are based only on statistics shown. They do not include fumbles, two-point conversions, and miscellaneous TDs. Player order is by position and depth chart priority.
For our player-focused betting tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as our Player Prop Edge Table.
For my fantasy thoughts on the Week 14 slate, see my "Freedman's Favorites.
- Quarterbacks for Fantasy Football Week 14
- Running Backs for Fantasy Football Week 14
- Wide Receivers for Fantasy Football Week 14
- Tight Ends for Fantasy Football Week 14
Top Fantasy Plays for Week 14 Chiefs vs. Chargers
Chiefs: Fantasy Rankings
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Lions in their skill-position groups for Week 14.
- Patrick Mahomes: QB8
- Isiah Pacheco: RB24
- Kareem Hunt: RB33
- DeAndre Hopkins: WR34
- Xavier Worthy: WR39
- Travis Kelce: TE6
- Noah Gray: TE17
Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor.
For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.
Chargers: Fantasy Rankings
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Packers in their skill-position groups for Week 14.
- Justin Herbert: QB11
- Gus Edwards: RB28
- Kimani Vidal: RB40
- Ladd McConkey: WR15
- Quentin Johnston: WR47
- Joshua Palmer: WR49
- Will Dissly: TE11
Chiefs vs. Chargers Injury Report and External Factors
I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.
Chiefs: Notable Injuries
Literally nothing. The active roster is healthy.
Chargers: Notable Injuries
- WR Ladd McConkey (knee, shoulder): Exited last week early, but his back-to-back limited practices to open the week are highly encouraging.
- LB Denzel Perryman (groin): Has been out since Week 12, but his return to practice this week suggests he'll play this week.
- CB Cam Hart (ankle): Has missed the past two games but seems likely to suit up with back-to-back practices.
- SS Tony Jefferson (hamstring): Was downgraded from limited practice on Wednesday to no practice on Thursday. Trending toward out, which is bad for the Chargers, who are already without FS Alohi Gilman (hamstring, IR).
Without RB J.K. Dobbins (knee, IR), the Chargers are thin in the backfield, but their active roster is relatively healthy.
Chargers vs Chiefs: External Factors
- Home-Field Advantage: The Chiefs have had a modest home-field advantage over the past half-decade, and in this game, it's diminished even more because the Chargers are in division.
- Travel: This game is the second straight at home for the Chiefs and on the road for the Chargers.
- Rest: The Chiefs have a two-day rest-and-prep edge coming off their Black Friday game.
- Weather: The forecast at kickoff calls for winds of nine mph and a temperature of 50 degrees (per NFL Weather).
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
- Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)
