Betting

Chiefs vs Eagles Predictions and Preview For Super Bowl 59

by Matthew Freedman

3 hours ago

In this breakdown of my Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl 59 predictions and matchup at the Caesars Superdome, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.

I also …

Provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.).
Highlight any potential best bets I have on the game.
Note any players I like to outperform expectations.

Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”

Obligatory notes.

Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of Tue., Feb. 4, 3:30 a.m. ET.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
You can get 10% off your FL+ sub with the promo code FREEDMAN.
And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl 59 Betting Odds

Spread & Total: KC -1.5 | O/U 48.5
KC ML: -124 (FanDuel)
PHI ML: +106 (FanDuel)

Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

A spread of -1.5 means the Chiefs need to win by at least two points to cash. If the Eagles win outright or lose by no more than one, they cash. A total of 48.5 means that 49 or more points cashes the over and 48 or fewer points cashes the under. A -124 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $124 to win $100; a +106 ML, $100 to win $106.

In the era of HC Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City and HC Nick Sirianni and QB Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, the Chiefs and Eagles have met three times.

2021 (Week 4): KC 42, PHI 30 | KC -6 win | KC -286 win
2022-23 (Super Bowl): KC 38, PHI 35 | KC +1.5 win | KC +100 win
2023 (Week 11): PHI 21, KC 17 | PHI +2.5 win | PHI +124 win

The Chiefs are 2-1 ATS & ML in these matchups—and they won the game that mattered most in Super Bowl 57.

As you'll see with my projections, I'm expecting a similar outcome in this rematch.

Chiefs-Eagles Implied Team Totals

KC Team Total: 25.25
PHI Team Total: 23.75

Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.

Projections for Super Bowl 59 Chiefs vs. Eagles

Chiefs-Eagles Betting Projections

Spread: KC -1.9
Total: 48.6
ML: +/-123.1

Eagles vs Chiefs Final Score Prediction

Chiefs: 25.2
Eagles: 23.3

Since this projected score is impossible, here's my "informed gut" projection: KC 24, PHI 21.

Chiefs-Eagles Projected Odds to Win

Chiefs: 55.2%
Eagles: 44.8%

Chiefs Player Projections For Super Bowl 59

Quarterback

Player	Comp	PaAtt	PaYd	PaTD	INT	RuAtt	RuYd	RuTD	FP
Patrick Mahomes	23.1	34.5	234.4	1.65	0.57	5.4	24.8	0.25	18.8

Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

Player	RuAtt	RuYd	RuTD	Rec	ReYd	ReTD	FP
Kareem Hunt	10.7	40	0.37	1.3	8.3	0.04	7.9
Isiah Pacheco	5.4	21.8	0.14	1.2	8	0.04	4.6
Samaje Perine	0.6	2.6	0.01	1.1	9.1	0.04	2
Carson Steele	0	0.1	0	0.1	0.4	0	0.1
Xavier Worthy	1.1	5.8	0.09	4.9	55.4	0.41	11.5
Hollywood Brown	0	0	0	3.3	40.3	0.24	7.1
JuJu Smith-Schuster	0	0	0	1.7	18.8	0.13	3.5
DeAndre Hopkins	0	0	0	1.6	17.4	0.14	3.4
Justin Watson	0	0	0	0.5	7.1	0.05	1.3
Travis Kelce	0	0	0	5.9	54	0.4	10.7
Noah Gray	0	0	0	1.6	15	0.15	3.2
Peyton Hendershot	0	0	0	0.1	0.7	0.01	0.1

Fantasy points are half-PPR scoring and based only on statistics shown. They do not include fumbles, two-point conversions, and miscellaneous TDs. Player order is by position and depth chart priority.

For our player-focused betting tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as our Player Prop Edge Table.

Eagles Player Projections For Super Bowl 59

Quarterback

Player	Comp	PaAtt	PaYd	PaTD	INT	RuAtt	RuYd	RuTD	FP
Jalen Hurts	18.7	27.2	207.8	1.13	0.44	8.8	40.5	0.72	20.4

Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

Player	RuAtt	RuYd	RuTD	Rec	ReYd	ReTD	FP
Saquon Barkley	19.8	102.3	0.73	2.3	16.9	0.1	18
Kenneth Gainwell	1.9	8.3	0.07	0.8	5.4	0.01	2.3
A.J. Brown	0	0	0	5.2	70.9	0.41	12.1
DeVonta Smith	0	0	0	4.7	54.9	0.32	9.8
Jahan Dotson	0	0	0	0.9	9.7	0.04	1.6
Johnny Wilson	0	0	0	0.2	2	0.01	0.4
Dallas Goedert	0.1	0.4	0.37	4.3	44.9	0.23	10.3
Grant Calcaterra	0	0	0	0.3	3.2	0.01	0.6

Top Fantasy Plays for Super Bowl 59 Chiefs vs. Eagles

Chiefs Fantasy Rankings

Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Chiefs in their skill-position groups for the Super Bowl.

Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor.

For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.

The Chiefs have one of the greatest QBs and offensive playcallers of all time yet still have no elite fantasy options outside of Kelce.

Eagles Fantasy Rankings

Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Eagles in their skill-position groups for the Super Bowl.

Although this team is loaded, the passing attack is vulnerable and has been a diminished version of itself since the team's Week 5 bye. For better or worse, the offense runs through Barkley.

Key Matchups For Super Bowl 59 Chiefs vs. Eagles

Chiefs Offense vs. Eagles Defense

TE Travis Kelce vs. SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson & CB Cooper DeJean

Travis Kelce underwhelmed in the AFC Championship with 2-19-0 receiving on four targets, but the week before that he had an explosive 7-117-1 on eight targets, and for his career he has averaged 85.0 yards receiving per game in the playoffs vs. 69.4 in the regular season.

C.J. Gardner-Johnson (83.1 coverage grade) and Cooper DeJean (79.0, per PFF) are the DBs likely to match up most with Kelce throughout the game, and they've been strong coverage defenders this year. That said, Commanders TE Zach Ertz just had 11-104-0 on 16 targets against the Eagles in the NFC Championship.

I can imagine this matchup going in either direction, and I think it will be decisively one way or the other: A big performance by Kelce … or almost nothing.

If the Chiefs win, Kelce will almost certainly need to have strong statistics. If he does little, the Eagles will likely win.

Eagles Defense vs. Chiefs Offense

DT Jordan Davis vs. LG Mike Caliendo

In Week 15, the Chiefs shifted two-time first-team All-Pro LG Joe Thuney to LT in order to stabilize the OL and protect QB Patrick Mahomes' blindside.

Thuney has been acceptably average at OT … but his replacement at LG (Mike Caliendo, a career backup) has been decidedly subpar (43.6 PFF pass blocking grade, 49.7 PFF run blocking grade).

While it's massively positive for Caliendo that he probably won't play many of his snaps against second-team All-Pro DT Jalen Carter (who usually lines up on the left), he will need to go against right DT Jordan Davis, who has had a PFF defense grade of 70-plus in each of his three NFL seasons.

While it's always possible that the Chiefs over the bye week could decide to kick Thuney back to LG and return veteran LT D.J. Humphries to the lineup, if Caliendo draws the start, then Davis will have the potential to be a true difference maker as a run defender and pass rusher.

Eagles Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

TE Dallas Goedert vs. SS Justin Reid & FS Bryan Cook

No. 1 WR A.J. Brown is one of the league's best pass catchers, and No. 2 WR DeVonta Smith is one of the NFL's best complementary receivers … but Dallas Goedert since returning from injury has outplayed both of them in the playoffs (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Tool).

Goedert: 30% target share | 25% target rate | 15-188-1 receiving
Brown: 30% target share | 21% target rate | 9-120-1 receiving
Smith: 20% target share | 15% target rate | 12-121-0 receiving

Goedert is a real weapon within the Eagles offense … and the Chiefs are weak against TEs. In the regular season, they allowed league-high marks with a 19% target rate and 66.2 yards receiving per game to the position (per our Fantasy Life TE DvP Tool), and Justin Reid and Bryan Cook—the two players most responsible for defending TEs—have allowed 938 yards receiving on 106 targets this year.

If Goedert goes off, the Eagles will probably be able to do enough in the passing game to win.

Chiefs Defense vs. Eagles Offense

DT Chris Jones vs. C Cam Jurgens & LG Landon Dickerson

Jones is a three-time first-team All-Pro and maybe the league's best defensive player. He and DC Steve Spagnuolo are the twin pillars of the Chiefs defense.

C Cam Jurgens (back) was injured entering the NFC Championship, and he only played in that game (coming off the bench) because LG Landon Dickerson (knee), who was filling in at C, exited early with an injury.

Neither one has practiced this week, and although neither one had an injury designation on the Fri. 1/31 injury report, they are both likely to be at far less than 100% in the Super Bowl.

Jones should be able to capitalize against two injured interior linemen—and if he does then the Chiefs will likely win.

Super Bowl 59 Chiefs vs. Eagles #RevengeGame

In this spot, I think it's worthwhile to discuss what (in my mind) does and does not constitute a “Revenge Game.”

A player going against a former team or coach. A coach or coordinator going against his former team or employer/mentor. That's a revenge game.

A player going against another player he dislikes. A team going against another team that beat it previously. That's not a revenge game. That's more of a grudge match.

So even though the Eagles lost to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57, this is not a revenge game for them.

This is, however, the mother of revenge games for Chiefs HC Andy Reid, who was the Eagles HC for 14 years (1999-2012) and took them to five NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl before the team opted not to renew his contract after Reid had just his third losing season with the team throughout his tenure.

Some say that success is the best revenge—and Reid has had enormous success since the Eagles dumped him. In each of his 12 years with the Chiefs, Reid has had a winning record. In all but one of these seasons, the Chiefs have made the playoffs. Over the past decade, the Chiefs have won 10-plus games every year. And in his seven seasons with Mahomes as the starter, Reid has made every AFC Championship game and won three Super Bowls and now is just one victory away from being the first NFL HC ever to win three in a row.

With the success Reid has enjoyed in his post-Eagles era, he has a shot to retire eventually as the winningest NFL HC ever.

That's revenge.

For what it's worth, the Eagles have had success without Reid as well, winning one Super Bowl (with a Reid protege as coach) and barely losing another one to Reid himself.

But in this game, revenge belongs to just one man—and that's the man who might already have a claim to being the greatest NFL HC of all time.

Betting Records and Trends for Super Bowl 59 Chiefs vs. Eagles

Chiefs 2024 Betting Records

ATS: 8-10-1, -13.4% ROI | Favorites: 7-8-1, -9.6% ROI
ML: 17-2, 30.3% ROI | Favorites: 16-0, 40.9% ROI
Under: 11-8, 11.0% ROI

Betting performance data is via Action Network.

This season, the Chiefs have decoupled winning and covering by playing down to their opponents while still emerging victorious. Generally, I see such a dynamic as a sign of fraudulence. With the Chiefs, however, this looks like an intentional and intelligent strategy.

Eagles 2024 Betting Records

ATS: 13-7, 24.5% ROI | Underdogs: 3-0, 94.8% ROI
ML: 17-3, 32.3% ROI | Underdogs: 3-0, 127.7% ROI
Under: 11-9, 5.4% ROI

The Eagles have been profitable to back ATS and ML this year—especially as underdogs.

Chiefs Betting Trends

QB Patrick Mahomes: 69-59-4 ATS, 4.6% ROI | 106-26 ML, 18.1% ROI
Mahomes Since 2022: 28-28-2 ATS, -4.0% ROI | 48-10 ML, 22.1% ROI
Mahomes Not at Home: 37-24-3 ATS, 17.0% ROI | 51-13 ML, 30.3% ROI
Mahomes at Neutral: 5-0 ATS, 91.4% ROI | 5-0 ML, 83.8% ROI
Mahomes Indoors: 8-7 ATS, 1.0% ROI | 14-1 ML, 35.6% ROI
Mahomes as Favorite: 57-57-3 ATS, -2.9% ROI | 95-22 ML, 10.6% ROI
Mahomes as Favorite of -3 or Less: 15-7 ATS, 30.9% ROI | 15-7 ML, 16.9% ROI
Mahomes Outside Division: 51-39-2 ATS, 9.2% ROI | 71-21 ML, 16.9% ROI
Mahomes Outside Conference: 18-15-1 ATS, 4.4% ROI | 28-6 ML, 22.1% ROI
Mahomes in Playoffs: 14-6 ATS, 34.9% ROI | 17-3 ML, 40.9% ROI
Mahomes vs. Winning Teams: 37-28-2 ATS, 10.1% ROI | 52-15 ML, 21.3% ROI
HC Andy Reid vs. Eagles: 4-1 ATS, 55.5% ROI | 4-1 ML, 47.1% ROI

Since 2022, when the team traded No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill, Mahomes has exhibited a strong propensity to win without covering.

That said, Mahomes has been the better version of himself outside division (although not necessarily outside the conference), away from home (especially at a neutral location), in the playoffs, against teams with winning records, and as a short favorite.

Mahomes' career indoor splits are something to behold. In a dome, he has been a mediocre ATS but legendary ML producer. That's so on-brand.

As for Reid, he has been rather vengeful against the Eagles.

Eagles Betting Trends

HC Nick Sirianni & QB Jalen Hurts: 36-32-2 ATS, 1.3% ROI | 50-20 ML, 8.0% ROI
Sirianni & Hurts Not at Home: 17-18-1 ATS, -6.6% ROI | 24-12 ML, 11.4% ROI
Sirianni & Hurts at Neutral: 1-1 ATS, -3.7% ROI | 1-1 ML, -10.0% ROI
Sirianni & Hurts Indoors: 4-7 ATS, -30.7% ROI | 8-3 ML, 17.5% ROI
Sirianni & Hurts as Underdogs: 7-7 ATS, -2.7% ROI | 6-8 ML, -0.7% ROI
Sirianni & Hurts as Dogs of +3 or Less: 5-3 ATS, 22.6% ROI | 5-3 ML, 41.4% ROI
Sirianni & Hurts Outside Division: 26-22 ATS, 4.1% ROI | 34-14 ML, 13.6% ROI
Sirianni & Hurts Outside Conference: 11-9 ATS, 5.8% ROI | 15-5 ML, 20.2% ROI
Sirianni & Hurts in Playoffs: 4-4 ATS, -5.2% ROI | 5-3 ML, -13.0% ROI
Sirianni & Hurts vs. Winning Teams: 22-13 ATS, 20.4% ROI | 24-11 ML, 8.7% ROI

Like the Chiefs, the Eagles (with Sirianni and Hurts) have generally been better at winning than covering.

The samples are small, but the Eagles have been strong as small underdogs and outside conference, and with a larger sample they've been good against winning teams—but they've still underwhelmed in the playoffs.

Super Bowl 59 Injury Report and External Factors

I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.

Chiefs Notable Injuries

Not one player on the active roster has an injury designation for the Chiefs.

Eagles Notable Injuries

C Cam Jurgens (back): Missed practice last week, but his lack of an injury designation strongly suggests he'll suit up on Sunday.
LG Landon Dickerson (knee): Ditto.
RB Kenneth Gainwell (concussion, knee): Exited the NFC Championship and is yet to practice, but the bye week gives him a good chance to play.
EDGE Brandon Graham (elbow, IR): Last played in Week 12 but returned to limited practice on Thursday with a questionable tag.

The Eagles seem likely to have all their key players active—but the injuries to Jurgens and Dickerson are notable, given that they play right next to each other on the OL and are yet to practice.

Chiefs-Eagles External Factors

Stadium Advantage: This game is at the neutral Caesars Superdome, but if one of these teams has a slight stadium-based advantage it is likely the Chiefs, who play in the same time zone and on a similar turf surface at home.
Travel: Kansas City is significantly closer to New Orleans than Philadelphia is, but travel is a minimal factor given that both teams get a bye. It is notable, though, that the Eagles have barely traveled over the past two months, playing seven of their past eight games at home.
Rest: Both teams should benefit from the bye, but the Chiefs have a slight edge given that they also had a bye on Wild Card Weekend.

Chiefs vs Eagles Anytime TD Player Prop

Jalen Hurts Anytime TD: -110 (DraftKings)
Proj: 0.72 TDs | –160.2 to Score

Even though Hurts has scored 18 TDs in 18 games this year, the market is still too low on him.

If this game had a low total, I could understand this line a little more, but the Eagles are likely to score points

At -110, this prop has a 52.4% implied probability of hitting (per our Fantasy Life Betting Odds Calculator), but this year Hurts has scored in 12 of 18 games (66.7%).

Abbreviations

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
Against the Spread (ATS)
Over/Under (O/U)
Team Total (TT)
Moneyline (ML)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
Expected Points Added (EPA)
Success Rate (SR)
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Short Down and Distance (SDD)
Long Down and Distance (LDD)
Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)

Matthew Freedman