In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
If you’re like me, there are still a million things left to do before Christmas with about 12 seconds to get it all done. Fear not, I’m wordy at times but not today—I can already hear my late Aunt Josephine yelling “Andiamo!” (Let’s go!) in the background …
Yes, you read the schedule correctly—Santa’s treating us all to an NFL doubleheader featuring four of the AFC’s seven playoff-bound squads.
Merry Blitzmas!
Chiefs (14-1) at Steelers (10-5): “Kansas City can’t keep getting away with this!”, he yelled for the 14th straight week, weeping into his now empty, tear-soaked wallet. I’ve never been a Patrick Mahomes hater, quite the opposite. That said, we’re approaching truly unbelievable territory—the Chiefs 5.1 yards/play sits T26th on the season, tied with the Cowboys. Yeah, those Cowboys. Pretty big change of fates on the injury side tomorrow. All-world DL and current league leader in quarterback pressures Chris Jones left Saturday’s game with a balky calf—he hasn’t practiced and could miss the game. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s George Pickens, the straw that stirs the black and yellow drink, should suit up after practicing in full. Mike Tomlin’s hanging onto the divisional lead by a fingernail and I think with T.J. Watt back as well, we’re set to see the best version of the Steelers. LEAN: PIT +3 (-110)
Ravens (10-5) at Texans (9-6): No, you’re not experiencing déjà vu. If the teams playing tomorrow all look familiar, that’s because they are. In the NFL’s infinite wisdom, they’ve decided to go for the holiday monopoly and horn in on Christmas. I’m not that old, but can’t remember a regular-season game ever being played on a Wednesday. Anyway, Baltimore’s got a chance to claw back into a tie with the Steelers atop the AFC North with a win plus a Steeler loss. Lamar’s playing the best ball of his career as their defense figures it out at just the right time. Can’t see how the Texans, now without Tank Dell as well, can keep up on either side of the ball today. Houston’s run game went south in a hurry, leaving just Nico Collins as a legitimate threat—who’s going to get more attention than an only child on Christmas morning. LEAN: BAL -5.5 (-110)
🎄🎁🎅🏽 MERRY CHRISTMAS!🎅🏽🎁🎄
Make sure to check out our NFL Odds page to track the market for the week, and you can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Laghezza’s Week 17 Power Rankings: Circle The Wagons
- The New York Prop Exchange: Christmas Day Specials
The Best Sweat in Fantasy Football Just Got Sweatier.
Playoff Guillotine League contests are now LIVE.
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 The biggest player prop edges on the slate … three Chiefs lead the way.
✍️ Chiefs vs Steelers … everything you need to know.
🪓 Guillotine Leagues are live for the playoffs … welcome to the Chopionship.
📈 11 players rising up 2025 NFL draft boards after big Round 1 playoff performances.
✏️ Heavy chalk on the NBA Christmas Day betting slate … where do you lean?
Laghezza’s Week 17 Power Rankings💥🏈—Circle The Wagons
I built a stat-based power-rankings formula that factors in projected head-to-head betting lines and injuries to determine my top squads down the stretch.
(Hit me up with any pushback! We’re all friends here, I can take it!)
Buffalo circled their wagons around the top spot by continually showing an ability to win in a multitude of ways. From shootouts to dogfights, Josh Allen’s a one-man wrecking crew. When the defense shows up, no one’s beating them right now on a neutral field.
If anyone could hold a candle to the Bills, it’s the Eagles. Sadly, Jalen Hurts left Sunday’s game concussed despite trying to convince trainers he could go back out there. I imagine he’ll be back with a slim chance to claim the NFC’s top seed with some help.
Not much major movement on the board outside the Steelers and Falcons. As I mentioned before, Pittsburgh’s a completely different team with George Pickens, once again capable of going blow-for-blow with their more explosive counterparts. Regarding Atlanta, rookie QB Michael Penix looked incredible in a win, pushing the Falcons back into the divisional lead. However, it was the lowly Giants. Facing the Commanders on Sunday will present more of a challenge. Remember, we need to temper any outlandish expectations—he’s still a rookie. That said, with the way Bijan’s playing, Atlanta’s got the weaponry to hang with anyone.
How does the Game Model view each team this week?
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🎄🏛️—Christmas Day Specials
THE BET: Lamar Jackson Xmas Day Passing Yard Leader (+350; DraftKings)
Honestly, I struggled to gift-wrap my mind around this price. Houston’s the worst secondary on the slate against the best passing offense, yet Lamar Jackson’s the biggest longshot? Um, ok. If you say so …
THE BET: Xavier Worthy Xmas Day Receiving Yard Leader (+1100; DraftKings)
Kansas City’s rookie speedster is leading the league in near-misses after logging a second 11-target outing in a row. It’s coming. Eventually. With only four teams going, give me the long odds on a deep threat establishing himself as a focal point of the offense in critical spots down the stretch. There’s also a chance star DB Joey Porter Jr. misses the game after Mike Tomlin said he’d 'probably have a difficult time playing’. We don’t quite need a Christmas miracle but it’s paying 11:1 for a reason.
Make sure to check out our Player Projections to compare
I hope you enjoyed today’s special Christmas newsletter! Remember, regardless of belief structure, it’s never a bad time to be a good person. Reach out to a friend or family member you haven’t heard from in a while and say hello—sometimes just being there for someone is the best gift you can give. Corny, but true.
So from all of us at Betting Life, we wish you a happy and healthy holiday season to you and yours! HO HO HO!
