Ahead of the 2024 College Football season, I will be providing my college football best bets, organized by division. Not every team will have a bet that I am comfortable with for the season, and this will be noted.

To the left of each team name below, you will see a number. This is where the team ranks in my combined power rankings of the FBS and FCS. This is why some teams are ranked lower than 134, the number of teams in the FBS. 

My strength of schedule metrics below are out of those 134 teams in the FBS. While many use last year’s records – or projected 2024 records – for strength of schedule, my metrics stack schedules by the average strength of weekly opponents using my power ratings. This gives a more accurate gauge of the actual opponents being played. You can also access my full College Football Power Rankings for 2024.

The returning production numbers below come courtesy of ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

Below is where I stand on the Pac-12 and Independents ahead of the 2024 season.

8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 9 defense  
  • Returning production: 97 | Offense: 94 | Defense: 94

HC Marcus Freeman’s tenure has produced 19 wins in two seasons, but it has been haunted by high-profile slipups and gaffes – the home upset loss to Marshall in 2022, the late-game meltdown against Ohio State in 2023 – as much as his 19 wins over two seasons. But Freeman continues to excel in talent acquisition. On3 ranked Notre Dame’s transfer portal haul No. 14 – with Duke QB Riley Leonard and EDGE RJ Oben two of the biggest additions – and its high school class No. 9. 

The question becomes: Can Freeman’s in-game coaching catch up to his skill in roster construction?

One other offseason addition – OC Mike Denbrock – was brought in to help with that. Denbrock, in his third separate stint with Notre Dame, comes from LSU, where his offense led the country in PPG and YPG last year. Can he get anywhere near the developmental leap out of Leonard that he got out of QB Jayden Daniels? The offense holds the key to Notre Dame’s success – the defense and special teams are both undisputed top-10 units nationally.

  • Strength of Schedule: 55

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 10.8
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 10
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Freeman has quietly been good to bettors, posting a 16-9 ATS record. This year’s team likely needs to hit this win total – 10-2 or better – for a berth into the 12-team CFP.

That’s this team’s only goal – anything less, against this forgiving schedule, will be considered a failure.

With a push at 10-2, I can advocate an over bet. The Irish picked a good season to have a middle-of-the-FBS-pack schedule. And incredibly, the Irish only have three true road games in 2024 (with three neutral site games). 

61. Oregon State Beavers

  • Returning starters: 4 offense, 2 defense
  • Returning production: 132 | Offense: 120  | Defense: 132

After winning 18 games over the past two seasons, Oregon State is about to return to earth. The coaching staff was raided following HC Jonathan Smith’s defection to Michigan State. The roster was also nuked, with several losses to the NFL and another generous handful leaving via the portal.

Oregon State’s new staff oversees one of the nation’s most inexperienced rosters – the Beavers rank third from last in returning production. The offense must replace its QB, RB, top-four WRs, and four starting OL. The defense returns only two starters. Qualitatively, Oregon State appears to be worse at every single position on the field.

  • Strength of Schedule: 74

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 7.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

If there’s a bit of good news, it’s this: Oregon State plays only three P4 opponents (four if you count Wazzu). This is basically an MWC schedule – the Beavers have seven opponents from that conference on the schedule, as well as FCS Idaho State.

The much softer schedule could have Oregon State appearing to not have fallen off as steeply as they have in reality. The Vegas number is spot-on and not playable.

71. Washington State Cougars

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 4 defense  
  • Returning production: 94 | Offense: 84 | Defense: 71

Washington State returns more production than fellow left-in-the-Pac-12-dust cohort Oregon State, and Wazzu also managed to keep its coaching staff together. But while the past two incarnations of the Cougars had a prolific passing offense with a defense that paired a strong pass rush with a good secondary, Wazzu’s holdover staff might have issues coaxing the returning personnel into a similar identity. 

QB Cam Ward and his top two WRs are gone. The Cougs also lost its best pass-rushers – with DEs Brennan Jackson and Ron Stone off to the NFL – and its entire starting secondary, including stud S Jalen Hicks.

That matters for a team that tied for No. 1 nationally in defensive TD last fall. There’s one area where Wazzu returned almost everyone – four of last year’s starting five OL are back. That, however, was likely due to a lack of P4 suitors – last year’s OL allowed the second-most pressures in the Pac-12. 

  • Strength of Schedule: 78

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 7.4
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Last year, Wazzu played four top-20 teams. This year, the Cougs’ SOS falls off a cliff – Wazzu gets eight MWC opponents along with an FCS team. As with Oregon State, this could help disguise the talent drop-off on the Palouse. Topping Vegas’ win total will require finding a QB for OC Ben Arbuckle’s Air Raid, getting improved play from the OL, and praying the entirely new secondary is at least competent. It’s too close to the margins to bet.

139. Connecticut Huskies

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 8 defense  
  • Returning production: 100 | Offense: 111 | Defense: 72

Following a Year 1 surprise bowl bid, HC Jim Mora Jr. and UConn regressed sharply to 3-9 last year. The decline, in part, was due to a biblical plague of injuries. UConn gets QB1 Joe Fagnano back from his season-ending injury. Fagnano is going to notice a lot more weapons in the 2024 receiving corps after Mora got to work in the transfer portal. The team also has a shiny new OC.

Though the offense loses stud OG Christian Haynes, UConn brings back a pair of OT who are both NFL prospects. With better injury luck alone, UConn is going to get better play at QB and RB. The defense loses leader LB Jackson Mitchell, but most everyone else is back – with eight starters returning in total.

  • Strength of Schedule: 98

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.3
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

This is an easier schedule than the team played 2023, and UConn figures to enjoy better injury luck. There is a path to return to bowl season. My numbers, as well as the Vegas number, however, split the difference between the 2022 win total of six and last year’s three. There is not enough value here to place a bet.

150. UMass Minutemen

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 6 defense  
  • Returning production: 89 | Offense: 91  | Defense: 71 

UMass has never finished better than 4-8 in the FBS. In a bid to change that, veteran HC Don Brown added a small handful of former P4 transfers. One of them, WR Frank Ladson, will be reunited with former Clemson teammate QB1 Taisun Phommachanh. Ladson and San Jose St. transfer TE Dominick Mazotti are both 6’4, adding size to a pass-catching corps that previously lacked it.

UMass revamped its OL with at least two immediate starters from the portal – that unit should be the best it's been in the past few years. The defense is starting to look more like a small-scale Brown unit. Brown, nicknamed “Dr. Blitz”, likes to send waves of heat. Luckily, the strengths of his 2024 defense appear to be the pass-rush, and the size of his secondary (every projected starter is 6-foot or taller). 

  • Strength of Schedule: 104

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 3.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 3.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

In advance of UMass’ move to the MAC next year, the Minutemen open with six straight games against MAC opponents. Unfortunately, that includes road games at Toledo and Miami (OH), the class of the conference. Of the other six games, three are against SEC teams (including Georgia!), and another is against G5 titan Liberty.

In an odd scheduling twist, the other two are against lower-tier FCS opponents – giving this team a 2-win floor. But while this is Brown’s most talented team at UMass, it’s also arguably the toughest schedule he’s faced while at the school. To get over the total, UMass needs to sweep the FCS opponents, and likely go 2-1 in the games against EMU, UConn, and Buffalo. Flip a coin.

More College Football Betting Previews for 2024