Ahead of the 2024 College Football season, I will be providing my college football best bets, organized by division. Not every team will have a bet that I am comfortable with for the season, and this will be noted.

To the left of each team name below, you will see a number. This is where the team ranks in my combined power rankings of the FBS and FCS. This is why some teams are ranked lower than 134, the number of teams in the FBS. 

My strength of schedule metrics below are out of those 134 teams in the FBS. While many use last year’s records – or projected 2024 records – for strength of schedule, my metrics stack schedules by the average strength of weekly opponents using my power ratings. This gives a more accurate gauge of the actual opponents being played. You can also access my full College Football Power Rankings for 2024.

The returning production numbers below come courtesy of ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

Below is where I stand on the American Athletic Conference (AAC).

49. Memphis Tigers

  • Returning starters: 10 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 22 | Offense: 31 | Defense: 35

Memphis was extremely active this offseason, adding 34 transfers from the portal and JUCO ranks to what was already going to be an experienced roster. That gives this year’s team a do-or-die feel – next season’s roster will have to be built from close to scratch next offseason. That’s tomorrow’s problem – HC Ryan Silverfield has constructed a roster that gives Memphis a puncher’s chance at the G5’s first auto-bid into the 12-team CFP.

Former South Carolina RB1 Mario Anderson will start next to QB Seth Henigan, who is entering his fourth year as the starter. Almost all pass-catchers are back – led by thousand-yard WR Roc Taylor – and 124 career starts return along the OL.

The Tigers added a ton of transfers to the two-deep on defense to surround First-Team All-AAC LB Chandler Martin. A mediocre DL against the run last year has mostly been replaced with transfers. There will be fierce battles in the secondary for playing time in camp, with a handful of ready-to-play transfers joining returning starters CB Julian Barnett and FS Greg Rubin.

  • Strength of Schedule: 78

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.1
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

To get into the CFP conversation, the Tigers will need to win the AAC and probably run the table outside of an expected loss at Florida State. That won't be easy, as Memphis is forced to travel to USF, UTSA, and Tulane. My system sees 1.7 wins over those three games. We’ve always liked Silverfield as a recruiter – not so much as an on-field coach. We see a 9-3 team against this schedule. We’ll fade the bullish market and go under. 

55. UTSA Roadrunners

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 84 | Offense: 86 | Defense: 57

Familiar face QB Frank Harris is gone, but HC Jeff Traylor and his staff remain. QB Owen McCown takes over after getting playing experience during Harris’ injury-plagued 2023 season. Though WRs Joshua Cephus and Tykee Ogle-Kellogg depart, UTSA has one of the G5’s most dangerous pass-catching corps with WR De'Corian Clark back from injury, WR Devin McCuin emerging, and TE Oscar Cardenas returning. The OL should be strong with four starters returning.

The loss of stud EDGE Trey Moore in the portal to Texas stings a defense that finished No. 2 nationally in sacks and No. 5 in TFL a year ago. Moore is impossible to replace, and his loss will assuredly lead to worse havoc numbers. Where UTSA hopes to make up that ground is via an improved run defense – the Roadrunners gave up 200-plus rushing yards three times last year. The DL is big and deep, the LB corps is active, and this is probably the best secondary in the AAC.

  • Strength of Schedule: 106

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

The non-con will provide two easy wins, but also brings road games at Texas and Texas State. Where UTSA hit it right this season was in the AAC scheduling.

The Roadrunners draw Memphis at home, while avoiding the other two teams projected in the league’s top four – Tulane and USF. Normally, the roughly half-win of value we’re showing here would lead to a bet. But that feels, essentially, like a doubling-down on the bet above. We aren’t confident enough to do so.

62. Tulane Green Wave

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 96 | Offense: 90 | Defense: 97 

Last year, Tulane went 11-3 without RB Tyjae Spears and LB Dorian Williams. This year, the Green Wave will try to extend their streak of double-digit win seasons to three with a new coaching staff and without longtime QB1 Michael Pratt. Despite Pratt’s loss, the offense has a chance to improve from a more sluggish-than-expected 2023.

The OL returns 143 career starts, and the skills blend proven production (RB Makhi Hughes and TE Alex Bauman) with high-upside transfers (QB Ty Thompson and WR Mario Williams).

Last year’s team was led by a superb defense that allowed only 20.5 PPG. The priority for new HC Jon Sumrall will be to replicate that success in Year 1. Sumrall runs a similar base 4-2-5 system to what Tulane ran last season, and continuity was further improved when multiple contributors from Troy came with him to New Orleans. Troy finished top-30 SP+ in defense in each of the last two years. That’s the goal in 2024 for Tulane.

  • Strength of Schedule: 82

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 7.8
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Tulane has a gauntlet of a non-con schedule that includes a home game against Kansas State and road trips to Oklahoma and Louisiana. Things cool down a bit in AAC play. Tulane ducks UTSA and gets both USF and Memphis at home. There are too many unknown variables to bet a number our system believes is objectively fair.

78. South Florida Bulls

  • Returning starters: 10 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 8 | Offense: 5 | Defense: 24

Between the last season of the Willie Taggart era and the entirety of the reign of his successor, Jeff Scott, USF went 8-34. Former Tennessee OC Alex Golesh turned things around immediately in Year 1, going 7-6 with a blowout bowl win over Syracuse. Golesh is going to be even better in 2024. The Bulls enter the season No. 8 in returning production, with 10 returning starters, including building-block QB Byrum Brown.

Last year’s offense ran at the fastest tempo in the nation – No. 1 in plays per game – and the Bulls are likely to do so again. USF’s ability to make the leap in 2024 will depend on how much defensive improvement they get. Last year’s defense ranked No. 115 in total defense. That was an improvement over the year before, when USF had one of the three worst defenses in the FBS. Expect further improvement with eight starters back.

  • Strength of Schedule: 74

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 7.1
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

USF has two likely losses on the schedule against Miami and Alabama. In large part because of those two games, our system ranks USF’s schedule as the AAC’s toughest.

In conference play, USF avoids UTSA. But road games at Tulane and Rice will present big tests. Another will come on a Friday night in October when the Bulls host conference frontrunner Memphis. We love what USF is building – the Bulls roared up our power rankings during last year’s 7-6 campaign and then jumped 32 more spots over the offseason.

Our system leans under against this gauntlet of a schedule, but USF’s rapid improvement has convinced us to stay on the sidelines.

84. Rice Owls

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 5 | Offense: 28 | Defense: 1

In 2023, Rice reached six wins for the first time since 2014. Going back to full seasons since the 1-11 finish in 2017, the Owls have increased their yearly win total by one each campaign. Though the team lost QB JT Daniels and WR Luke McCaffrey over the offseason, the expectations for this team are to do so again. Daniels started nine games before injuries ended his season (and, it turns out, his career). Ex-Temple QB EJ Warner is an upgrade over Rice’s 2023 QB play. Warner, the son of Kurt, quietly led the AAC with 307.6 passing YPG in 2023 on a terrible Temple team.

Keeping the passing game moving while cutting down the turnovers is this team’s key to improving again – last year’s Owls were -14 in turnovers. HC Mike Bloomgren says Rice currently has the best OL of his seven-year tenure; efficient vet RB Dean Connors will threaten 1,000 yards behind it.

Defensively, Rice was the best pass defense amongst the AAC last year, and it also had a top-20 red zone defense. With eight returning starters on that side – and the most returning production in college football – the Owls’ defense will almost certainly be better.

  • Strength of Schedule: 104

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 7.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Rice scheduled itself an ideal OOC to pile up wins – there is a chance for a clean 4-0 sweep of it if Rice can spring a small upset “at” cross-town Houston, a team going through a coaching transition. And while Rice does draw the AAC’s top-three teams, UTSA and USF come to Houston.

The path to the 7-5 we need for an over is pretty straightforward, and it doesn’t even require beating Houston. Win the other three OOC games – Rice could be double-digit favorites in all three – to finish 3-1 OOC, and a .500 showing in the AAC gets you home. Our system favors Rice in five of eight AAC games.

97. East Carolina Pirates

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 79 | Offense: 69 | Defense: 76

After two consecutive bowl seasons, ECU fell off the shelf in 2023 during a disastrous 2-10 campaign. For HC Mike Houston to get the train rolling again, he’s going to have to turn around one of the nation’s worst offenses. ECU only averaged 17.3 PPG while gaining a paltry 277 YPG in 2023. Both QBs from that team have mercifully departed, giving way to a pair of P4 transfers, Jake Garcia and Katin Houser, who will compete for the gig.

It’s imperative that one of the two excels in former Ole Miss co-OC John David Baker’s new scheme, which spreads the field and plays at tempo. The RB1 is back, the WR corps looks like it could be decent, and the OL returns four starters. The 2023 defense performed admirably while saddled with a DOA offense, allowing only 22.4 PPG. ECU plays an assignment-sound, conservative brand of 3-4 defense that seeks to stop the run and tackle reliably after completions.

  • Strength of Schedule: 124

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

With the returning production and easy schedule, the expectation should be for ECU to triple last year’s win output (or more). While ECU’s OOC schedule features arguably the best that the Sun Belt (Appalachian State) and CUSA (Liberty) have to offer, the Pirates play zero games against P4 opponents. ECU also got the incredible fortune of avoiding Memphis, Tulane, and USF in AAC play!

ECU went 7-5 during the regular season in both 2021 and 2022 before last year’s one-off aberration. We see ECU returning to bowl season. But this number is too sharp to play.

103. UAB Blazers

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 58 | Offense: 7 | Defense: 117

UAB went 4-8 in Trent Dilfer’s first season, but 3-4 after a 1-4 start. The offense actually gained more YPG than any season since the Blazers returned from shuddering its program. But the leaky defense made it difficult to stay in games – it allowed 36.9 PPG one year after giving up 23.2.

The good news? A strong offense returns most of its key pieces and should be even better. The bad? The defense is starting over.

Perhaps a defensive reset isn’t such a bad thing after Dilfer called last year’s unit a “trainwreck.” Diler added four P4 transfers to the DL, a former Purdue starter at LB, two FCS stars at CB, and a pair of projected starters at safety who played at Georgia Tech and Clemson last year. The offense is led by productive dual-threat QB1 Jacob Zeno and features a deep RB room, a potential star WR in Amare Thomas, and an OL that returns four starters.

  • Strength of Schedule: 105

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.3
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Dilfer’s second team is definitely going to be better than his first. The OOC features a roadie at Arkansas, but is otherwise manageable. UAB avoids UTSA in the AAC schedule. It will all come down to how much the defense has improved. We don’t see value on the Vegas number on the Blazers.

110. Florida Atlantic Owls

  • Returning starters: 4 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 121 | Offense: 122 | Defense: 105

The Tom Herman hiring seemed inspired at the time. But Herman’s first season – 4-8 – did not inspire, and FAU comes off a ho-hum offseason. An offense that struggled mightily after the season-ending injury to QB Casey Thompson is starting over, with ex-Marshall QB Cam Fancher taking over and a new cast of characters populating the skill groups. Fancher is a dual-threat QB who turns the ball over too much. The offense’s best player, WR LaJohntay Wester, transferred to Colorado.

The defense’s best player – NT Evan Anderson – is also gone. Fortunately, FAU should be able to shoulder that loss with the return of eight starters. FAU’s defense was decent last year, allowing 25.5 PPG, and is likely to be a bit better in 2024. The DL looks to be a strength again, and the secondary is one of the AAC’s best, with four returning starters. Will the defense get any help from the retooled offense this fall?

  • Strength of Schedule: 133

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

If you’re looking for an encouraging sign that Tom Herman will return FAU to a bowl game, look no further than the schedule. The Owls play the second-easiest schedule in the entire FBS – only Liberty’s schedule, oft-mocked, is weaker. The only OOC against a P4 is the opener at rebuilding Michigan State. FAU has a decent chance to sweep the three other OOC games.

In AAC play, the Owls avoid both Memphis and Tulane, and they host USF on a Friday night during Homecoming Week. We don’t love FAU’s roster. But the soft schedule has our system calling for a bowl game. With our number almost sitting smack-dab on the market’s, we’re going to pass.

113. Army Black Knights

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 3 defense
  • Returning production: 110 | Offense: 76 | Defense: 128

Transitioning into what was described as a Jamey Chadwell-like spread-option scheme out of shotgun in 2023, Army’s offense sputtered during a 2-6 start. The four-game win streak to close out the regular season coincided with HC Jeff Monken returning to more flexbone concepts under center – Army attempted nine fewer passes per game in the last four games – and improved play from Army’s defense. Over the offseason, Army replaced OCs with the idea of returning to more traditional option concepts in 2024.

This is certainly the style that fits Army’s personnel better, though the team will have to work around the cut-block ban that got them to shift systems in the first place. Luckily, most contributors return. That’s not the case for Army’s defense, which returns only three starters. It’s been at least seven years since they had so few coming back, but DC Nate Woody usually has this unit playing well.

  • Strength of Schedule: 119

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 5.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Army has a breezy start to the regular season to get re-acclimated to under-center option play. And in the AAC slate, Army avoids Memphis and USF, while getting UTSA at home.

There is a late-November game in the Bronx against Notre Dame, but, overall, Army’s schedule is advantageous for a return to bowl season. 

116. North Texas Mean Green

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 104 | Offense: 115 | Defense: 87

The formula for HC Eric Morris, the 38-year-old who played WR at Texas Tech under Mike Leach, is pretty simple: This team will go as far as QB play takes it.

After starting last year 0-2, UNT inserted Chandler Rogers at QB and finished 5-5. With Rogers off to Cal, UNT signed former Oklahoma/TCU QB Chandler Morris to replace him. Morris is a former top recruit who has extensive experience in the Air Raid (he spent the past few years with Sonny Dykes).

But Morris also lost his starting gig each of the last two years. Can his new coach, who shares the same last name, fix him? If he can, this offense could fly – it has a strong WR corps and one of the AAC’s best OLs.

The defense is a major question mark, having allowed more than 31.5 PPG in four of the last five seasons, including a bottom-three nationally 37.1 PPG last year. UNT was particularly rancid against the run (No. 130) but is sticking with the 3-3-5 scheme designed to keep the ball in front of it.

  • Strength of Schedule: 97

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

The Mean Green’s OOC slate will not be easy, with road trips to South Alabama and Texas Tech, and a home game against frisky Wyoming. And while UNT ducks USF in AAC play, it has road games scheduled at Memphis and UTSA, and a home game against Tulane. We see another 5-7 finish.

122. Navy Midshipmen

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 7 defense 
  • Returning production: 50 | Offense: 62 | Defense: 37

In HC Brian Newberry’s first year, Navy had a terrible offense (No. 129 marginal efficiency, 17.7 PPG), a terrible pass defense (No. 115 success rate), and a very good run defense (No. 26 success rate). Navy finished 5-7. It was imperative to fix that offense over the offseason, so Newberry hired former Mercer HC Drew Cronic as OC. Cronic uses a jet-series Wing-T hybrid system, primarily under center.

The hope is that the system advances Navy out of the stone age offensively while retaining option components in the offense – it’s been compared to Jamey Chadwell’s offense, except under center.

That’s exciting stuff, of course, with the caveat that, last summer, Army compared its new offensive system to Chadwell’s – before trashing it after a poor start to return to more of its traditional option concepts. This team’s fate comes down to Cronic. Last year’s defense, overall, was strong (22.4 PPG allowed), and it’s possible it could be a bit better with the entire secondary returning from what the Midshipmen hope is an improved pass defense.

  • Strength of Schedule: 90

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.3
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Navy’s hopes of returning to a bowl game for the first time since 2019 are complicated by the schedule. Navy has a neutral-site game scheduled against Notre Dame in the OOC, and, in AAC play, Navy draws three of the top-four teams in the conference (only avoiding UTSA).

Navy is going to need Cronic to drastically improve the offense to go over the number. We’re going to fade that idea.

126. Charlotte 49ers

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 95 | Offense: 77 | Defense: 106

Charlotte’s 65-year-old HC Biff Poggi has shown enthusiasm – and dare we say suggest some aptitude? – for the portal, signing 51 transfers in the year-plus since he’s taken the job.

This offseason, the top priority was fixing a 2023 offense that finished No. 126 with 17.5 PPG – No. 128 in run success rate and No. 125 in pass success rate – while using four QBs (leading passer Trexler Ivey, a pocket-confined walk-on, posted a 4/10 TD/INT). I loved the signing of ex-Florida QB Max Brown, a superb athlete who ran for 2,300 yards in two years as a starter in high school.

Brown played valiantly in a spot-start against full-strength Florida State in place of the fallen Graham Mertz last November – the Gators led until 7:17 to play. He’ll pair with a platoon of RBs Cartevious Norton and CJ Stokes, intriguing transfers from Iowa State and Michigan, respectively, who arrived for more playing time. Charlotte’s defense has a keeper in third-team All-AAC CB Grant Balfour. But there is little in the way of proven production returning around him from a defense that allowed 28.8 PPG in 2023. Poggi signed a ton of transfers on this side of the ball – he’s going to need to hit on several.

  • Strength of Schedule: 80

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 3.1
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 3.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Wins are at a premium at a program like Charlotte, and the 49ers’ 2024 non-con schedule isn’t going to help matters. It brings two road games at P4 opponents – North Carolina and revamped Indiana – as well as a home date with Sun Belt heavyweight James Madison.

Charlotte avoids UTSA in conference play, but gets the rest of the AAC’s big dogs. Though our system leans under, we’re intrigued enough by Poggi’s roster additions to sit this one out.

129. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 112 | Offense: 85 | Defense: 127

Second-year HC Kevin Wilson, coming off a 4-8 season, is a vocal detractor of NIL. He intends to build Tulsa predominantly through high school recruiting. This past cycle, he signed the best high school class in Tulsa’s history. But it remains to be seen whether that slow-burn long-term plan will work in the current era of open player movement. In 2024, however, it feels likely to lead to another losing season.

Tulsa’s offense should be decent. It should be able to run again (No. 35 rushing YPG in 2023), and the passing game can’t help but improve after throwing 19 INTs last year (Utah State transfer Cooper Legas is battling two incumbents for the job in camp).

The big short-term issue is the 4-2-5 defense, which ranked No. 128 in YPG allowed last year. Of the four projected starters back on that side, three are in the secondary – but is that a good thing for a team that ranked No. 127 in passing YPG allowed in 2023?

  • Strength of Schedule: 123

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.4
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Tulsa is going to need to win shootouts to win at all. Non-con games at Arkansas State and Oklahoma State are not ideal. It helps in AAC play to avoid Memphis and Tulane. It would have helped the 2024 team more if Wilson had added a couple more plug-and-play veteran defensive bodies. Our numbers on Tulsa are right in line with the market.

164. Temple Owls

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 130 | Offense: 119 | Defense: 130

This looks like the end for third-year HC Stan Drayton. Coming off consecutive 3-9 seasons, Drayton once again saw his best players depart. During Drayton’s tenure, the offense has only had a chance to move when QB EJ Warner was on the field. Warner transferred to Rice this offseason, while first-team All-AAC OT Victor Stoffel transferred to Cal.

The strength of last year’s defense was the LB corps – headlined by fifth-round NFL Draft pick Jordan Magee and UDFA Yvandy Rigby – but all three starters are gone. That was from a unit that coughed up 35.7 PPG. Not having much success in the portal, Drayton alarmingly signed a large JUCO class in a last-gasp effort for plug-and-play solutions to a roster filled with holes. We’ve seen this strategy end in disaster more often than we’ve seen it succeed.

  • Strength of Schedule: 85

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 1.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 2.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

My system pegs Temple as an underdog in all 12 games, and a touchdown-plus ‘dog in 11. A scheduling sacrificial lamb to Oklahoma in the opener, Temple needs to steal a win from one of its three other OOC G5 opponents – Navy, Coastal Carolina, or Utah State – to have a shot at going over this win total. We think the Owls are the worst team in the FBS, and we do not believe Drayton will finish the season. We’re going under.

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