Below are my best bets for college football's Week 8, a mix of picks on the spread and player props.
Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately – as they happen – into our college football free bet tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move. Also, I rank all 134 FBS teams weekly — if you're here, you're probably going to enjoy that, as well (we have strength of schedule and projected wins, too!).
“Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full college football game model based on my projections.
Onto the picks!
North Texas vs. Tulane
Adjusted Thor Line: Tulane -5.2
Tulane is a well-rounded team. The Green Wave aren’t elite in any phase, but their offense, defense, and special teams are all solidly above-average for the G5.
North Texas is not. The Mean Green have one of the G5’s very-best offenses (No. 22 SP+) – along with a top-50 SP+ special teams unit – but a rancid defense that ranks No. 128 SP+.
North Texas has scored 41-or-more points in all five games it has played this season against fellow G5 teams. It is extremely difficult to keep North Texas off the board, because UNT is uber-explosive and gives itself more plays by running at top-15 adjusted tempo.
Tulane’s defense, while strong overall, does not project to prevent this game from turning into a shootout. The kryptonite of Tulane’s defense is allowing explosive runs (No. 113 Yards per successful rush). North Texas’ offense ranks No. 3 in yards per successful rush!
Overall, Tulane ranks No. 113 in marginal explosiveness on defense. North Texas’ offense ranks No. 1 nationally in IsoPPP and yards per successful play.
On the other side of the ball, North Texas’ defensive metrics are so bad because the Mean Green have given up a ton of explosive plays (No. 124 IsoPPP). Tulane’s offense – while, again, a strong unit overall – is more efficient than explosive (No. 50 marginal explosiveness).
We’re happy to get more than a touchdown on a home team that projects to generate more explosive plays in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Thor’s bet: North Texas +8.5
Indiana vs. Washington
Adjusted Thor Line: Indiana -9.2
This line opened at Indiana -7 before getting batted down to -6.5 on Sunday night. The line briefly moved to IU -7 on Monday before settling back at the same -6.5 number that I got on Tuesday.
I feel that line is an overreaction to the news that the Hoosiers will be without QB1 Nathan Rourke in this game. Rourke injured his throwing thumb against Nebraska and is out indefinitely.
Indiana was up 28-7 when Rourke was removed from the Nebraska game. Indiana QB2 Tayven Jackson went 7-of-8 and two TDs, ultimately leading Indiana on four touchdown drives. The Hoosiers outscored Nebraska 28-0 after Jackson entered.
Jackson is a former four-star recruit who initially signed with Josh Heupel at Tennessee. At that time, 247Sports comped Jackson to Jordan Love. Jackson transferred to Indiana prior to last season and started a few games before losing his job to Brenden Sorsby. He stuck around after Indiana hired James Madison HC Curt Cignetti, even after Cignetti signed Rourke as the clear starter.
Jackson in Cignetti’s offense is an interesting thought experiment. Cignetti has a strong track record already in the FBS of immediately turning new quarterbacks into stars. At James Madison in 2022 and 2023, a pair of transfers, Todd Centeio and Jordan McCloud, put up big numbers for strong offenses. Rourke’s work had him moving up the Heisman odds boards prior to going down.
Per Cignetti, Jackson has had many “wow” moments in practice, but needs to continue developing his timing in the passing game. Jackson’s displayed his physical talent with a few “wow” throws against Nebraska. He also adds a rushing element to the offense.
In a small sample, Jackson is averaging double the yards per carry (sacks omitted) as Nathan Rourke. On only 18 throws this year, Jackson has 12 completions for 225 yards and three TD.
Cignetti’s offenses have been so good for so long – and so unbelievably quarterback friendly – that my assumption is that Jackson keeps the train rolling.
And in this matchup against Washington, Jackson’s skillset might ironically be a better schematic fit. Washington’s pass defense is utterly elite. But the Huskies’ run defense continues to be an issue (No. 80 success rate, No. 87 EPA/run).
Indiana’s rushing offense is really good. The Hoosiers rank No. 3 in rushing success rate and No. 19 in EPA/rush. RB Justice Ellison (73.4 YPG rushing, 7.0 YPC) has carried the ball between nine and 14 times in each game. RB Ty Son Lawton (56.1 YPG rushing, 5.2 YPC) has carried the ball 10 times or more in all four games Indiana didn’t win by 38 points or more.
We like the prices to the over on both – both numbers are discounted, and shouldn’t be. Avoiding the Washington pass defense is a good idea in general, and Indiana has every incentive to. Against a bottom-rung P4 run defense, we think Ellison and Lawton both have big days.
Like the offense, Indiana’s defense has made a huge leap forward – all the way to No. 12 SP+. That unit has only one pronounced weakness: It allows too many explosive runs. But Washington’s run game doesn’t produce a ton of those – Jonah Coleman is a hammer back. He’s not a burner.
This spot is also highly advantageous for Indiana. "College Gameday" visits Bloomington for only the second time in history. And this game kicks off at noon EST – 9 AM body-clock time for the Huskies. That’s a charged-up atmosphere to be playing a game three time zones away hours before you’re accustomed to kicking off.
Thor’s bets:
- Indiana -6.5
- IU RB Ellison Over 56.5 Rushing Yards
- IU RB Lawton Over 40.5 Rushing Yards
Miami vs. Florida State
Adjusted Thor Line: Miami -23.6
Another week, another Florida State fade. Incredibly, we’re showing line value on Miami in a game the Hurricanes will be incentivized to run it up.
The past few weeks, we’ve found out why FSU HC Mike Norvell wouldn’t bench DJ Uiagalelei in September. Brock Glenn, Uiagalelei’s injury replacement (broken finger), has been objectively worse. Glenn is completing 4% less of his passes and averaging one yard less per dropback while taking more sacks per pressure than Uiagalelei did.
Also noteworthy was the revelation in the Duke game that true freshman FSU QB Luke Kromenhoek – the fourth-ranked quarterback in the Class of 2024 – is not ready to play yet. Nobody is coming to save Florida State.
Norvell named Glenn the starter for Miami. What we’ve seen is what we’re going to get. FSU has the No. 96 SP+ offense. That offense is not efficient nor explosive. It turns the ball over regularly. The focus has been the putrid quarterback play, but FSU is also bereft of skill talent, and the offensive line has been horrible (No. 131 yards before contact and dead-last in the FBS in pressure rate allowed).
Miami’s defense is a havoc machine, ranking No. 2 in that metric. The Hurricanes are No. 15 in sacks per dropback, and No. 17 in INT %. That’s a double-edged sword – the Achilles heal of that Miami defense is allowing explosive plays (No. 132 marginal explosiveness).
It’s just that FSU’s offense doesn’t generate explosive plays. Brock Glenn is 0-for-7 on passes beyond 20 yards (to be fair, two were dropped – which goes back to FSU’s lack of skill talent). Lawrance Toafili’s longest run since Roydell Williams got injured was for 12 yards.
On the other side of the ball, Miami’s No. 1-ranked SP+ offense is going to do whatever it wants. QB Cam Ward will tee off on an FSU pass defense that ranks No. 111 EPA/pass. The only aspect of FSU’s defense that has been strong this year has been the pass rush. Miami can slow that down. Ward’s escapability and pocket awareness will help. The Hurricanes have been tremendous at avoiding negatives, ranking No. 3 in havoc allowed.
Against a down rival, this is a prime opportunity for Miami to score style points for the CFP committee. We expect a boat race.
Thor’s bet: Miami -20.5
UCF vs. BYU
Adjusted Thor Line: UCF -1
UCF’s offense is back on track after replacing QB KJ Jefferson with Jacurri Brown. Brown, a former four-star Miami recruit, ran for 154 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow 38-35 loss to Iowa State last week. UCF finished that game with a 69% postgame win expectancy.
UCF now ranks No. 6 in rushing success rate and No. 3 in yards per rush (sacks omitted). RB RJ Harvey is averaging a healthy 6.7 YPC – he and Brown are a devastating combo.
BYU’s run defense has been a problem this year – the Cougars rank No. 67 in success rate, No. 86 in yards per rush (sacks omitted), and No. 84 in yards before contact. The Cougars’ superb pass defense is going to be wasted here if UCF runs as well as projected.
BYU doesn’t have any offensive superstars. But the attack has been solid overall because of its balanced approach. That balance is going to go away, here, because of UCF’s awesome run defense.
BYU, 7-0, has had a great start to the season. But this is a tough assignment, traveling two timezones east for a game that will kick off at 9 AM local time.
The clock might strike midnight for BYU’s charmed season in a tough matchup and bad spot against UCF.
Thor’s bet: UCF +2 | UCF +102 ML
Texas A&M vs. LSU
Adjusted Thor Line: A&M -1.6
I didn’t expect myself to be typing these words, but here goes: I think this LSU team is better than last year’s. The offense is slightly “down” – but it ranks No. No. 3 SP+ (compared to last year’s No. 2 finish). But the improvements on defense (No. 52 to No. 32 SP+) and special teams (No. 82 to No. 25 SP+) have done more than offset that.
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier has been even better than advertised. And the emergence of RB Caden Durham has given this team a ground element that we previously wondered if it would have.
First-year LSU DC Blake Baker could not rebuild Rome in a day. So he’s worked on improving specific areas of LSU’s defense while he awaits more talent reinforcement in the offseason. LSU is good at hindering rushing efficiency (No. 11 success rate) but gives up too many explosive runs (No. 132 Yards per successful rush).
The pass defense tries to take away explosive shots (No. 45 marginal explosiveness), but gives up short completions in bunches (No. 105 success rate and No. 112 completion % against).
On paper, LSU’s defense appears to match up with A&M’s offense better than most people would think. The Aggies’ run game is efficient (No. 25 success rate), but not very explosive (No. 57). The Aggies’ passing game has hit some big plays (No. 48 marginal explosiveness), but has been mired by inefficiency (No. 84 success rate and No. 105 completion % against).
In other words? A&M’s offensive strengths drive right into LSU’s defensive strengths. LSU’s defensive issues are areas where A&M’s offense is weak.
A&M’s defense is solid overall (No. 13 SP+), but it gives up too many explosive plays (No. 85 IsoPPP). An Aggies pass defense that ranks No. 45 EPA/pass is going to have issues slowing Nussmeier and company.
We hopped on LSU when this line opened on Sunday at a too-generous Texas A&M -3.5. By early-week, it had fallen to a far-more-reasonable A&M -2.5. If you’re late to the party but want to get involved, an LSU moneyline ticket at better than even money is worth considering.
Thor’s bet: LSU +3.5
USC vs. Rutgers
USC RB Jo'Quavious “Woody” Marks has 17-or-more carries in four-straight games. He’s surpassed 100 rushing yards in four-of-seven games as a Trojan. In this game, Marks has a plum matchup against a terrible Rutgers run defense (No. 124 EPA/rush) in a run-heavy projected gamescript (USC is 14-point favorites).
Moss’ passing yardage line is inflated because he attempted 50 passes (for 336 yards) in last week’s loss to Maryland. In the five games before that, Moss only went over 300 yards one time, while he was held under 230 passing yards three times. The outlier game was against Wisconsin – Moss had 308 yards on 45 attempts.
In this game, with USC expected to handily beat Rutgers, it is doubtful that Moss will be asked to throw 40-plus passes. Rutgers’ pass defense (No. 36 EPA/dropback) is also considerably better than Rutgers’ run defense.
USC Lincoln Riley desperately needs a win – the Trojans enter this game 3-4. Riley knows he has the more talented team. He has seen Moss throw six interceptions in the past five games.
Expect Riley to choose the pragmatic path – a run-leaning approach in a neutral gamescript early that progressively becomes run-heavier if USC is indeed able to open a double-digit second-half lead.
Thor’s bets: QB Moss Under 307.5 Passing Yards | RB Marks Over 94.5 Rushing Yards
Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse
This number is deflated because Holstein had a bad game last time out against Cal’s superb pass defense. In four-of-five games before that, Holstein topped 300 yards passing. The only exception was a 73-17 demolition of an FCS team where Holstein was given the day off early after 24 attempts.
Pittsburgh’s new offense is one of the nation’s 10-most pass-happy systems on a per-play basis. Holstein figures to feast on a terrible Syracuse pass defense that ranks No. 119 in success rate and No. 124 in completion rate.
The Panthers play at hyper-tempo (No. 11 adjusted pace) and excel at getting the ball into space quickly and forcing back-level defenders to make plays in space. Syracuse, ranked No. 124 in tackle success rate, is going to have issues keeping the Panthers off the field.
Thor’s bet: QB Holstein Over 295.5 Passing Yards
