Ahead of the 2024 College Football season, I will be providing my college football best bets, organized by division. Not every team will have a bet that I am comfortable with for the season, and this will be noted.

To the left of each team name below, you will see a number. This is where the team ranks in my combined power rankings of the FBS and FCS. This is why some teams are ranked lower than 134, the number of teams in the FBS. 

My strength of schedule metrics below are out of those 134 teams in the FBS. While many use last year’s records – or projected 2024 records – for strength of schedule, my metrics stack schedules by the average strength of weekly opponents using my power ratings. This gives a more accurate gauge of the actual opponents being played. You can also access my full College Football Power Rankings for 2024.

The returning production numbers below come courtesy of ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

Below is where I stand on the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC).

13. Florida State Seminoles

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 90 | Offense: 87 | Defense: 83

Ten Seminoles were selected in April’s NFL Draft, one short of the ACC record. HC Mike Norvell, one of the best in the country at acquiring portal talent, did the best he could to plug holes. FSU may not see much of a qualitative QB1 drop-off from Jordan Travis to DJ Uiagalelei. The skill positions, however, had a hard time keeping pace after the losses of RB Trey Benson, WRs Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman, and TE Jaheim Bell. Norvell is praying the Alabama duo he plucked out of the portal – RB Roydell Williams and WR Malik Benson – will both have breakout seasons. The WR room appears to be shaky behind Benson. FSU’s OL is elite – four starters and 190 career FBS starts return from a Joe Moore semifinalist unit last season.

FSU’s pass defense is going to be one of the best in the country. The book-end pass rushers – Patrick Payton and Marvin Jones Jr. – are a nasty duo. Last year, Payton had more sacks, a higher pressure rate, and more run stops than departed Round 1 pick Jared Verse. Jones Jr., who transferred from Georgia, is already evoking Jermaine Johnson.

That pair is going to speed up the clocks of opposing QBs who must throw into one of the nation’s best secondaries, with a lock-down CB duo (Fentrell Cypress and Azareye'h Thomas) and a star S (Shyheim Brown).

  • Strength of Schedule: 32

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.5
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

FSU starts the season in Ireland against Georgia Tech. The non-con also includes home games against Memphis and Florida. The schedule includes a pair of daunting road trips to Miami and Notre Dame, and another tricky spot at SMU. Our system’s number is the exact same as Vegas’, so we’re going to pass.

15. Clemson Tigers

  • Returning starters: 9 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 33 | Offense: 13 | Defense: 88

Last year, Clemson started 4-4 and failed to reach double-digit wins for the first time in 13 years. Clemson has nine returning starters on offense and ranks No. 13 in returning production on that side of the ball. The fate of this team will be determined by how much improvement second-year OC Garrett Riley can coax out of QB Cade Klubnik.

Last year, Clemson ranked No. 111 with 6.3 YPA. We know the running game will be strong. RB Phil Mafah is a stud, and the OL returns four starters. As for the passing game, there are reasons to believe that improvement is coming. Klubnik will have time to throw, standout TE Jake Briningstool is back, and the WR corps is more experienced – and assuredly will be healthier – than it was last year.

The defense, which lags behind the offense in the returning production metric, nevertheless has far fewer questions. The back seven is filled with studs – including LB Barrett Carter and dynamic safeties Khalil Barnes and RJ Mickens. Clemson lost all four starting DL. Those around the program, however, swear there will be no dropoff up front.

The Clemson DL pipeline is chock-full of top-15 DL recruits. Starting DT Tre Williams recently said of Clemson’s defense: “Last year we finished Top-8 in total defense and that is not where we want to be. We want to be the number one defense in the country. And we feel like we have all the pieces for that.”

  • Strength of Schedule: 47

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Clemson plays Georgia in Atlanta in the opener. In the 12-team CFP era, this isn’t bad scheduling… a free spot to dramatically enhance entrant odds, or, if nothing else, inject a steroid shot into the SOS.

The Tigers must later play Florida State on the road, but the Tigers get Louisville at home and avoid both Miami and SMU. We’re tentatively bullish on Clemson – the offense is going to be better and the defense should be top-10 again – but don’t see enough value on the number to place a bet.

17. Miami (FL) Hurricanes

  • Returning starters: 10 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 30 | Offense: 15 | Defense: 77

HC Mario Cristobal is 12-13 over two seasons. With his seat beginning to warm, Cristobal went ballistic over the offseason, signing the No. 4 high school class and No. 10 portal class.

Offensively, Miami shooed away the inconsistent QB Tyler Van Dyke and convinced Cam Ward to spurn the NFL Draft. Ward will pair with RB Damien Martinez – also a former star of a 2-Pac school – to give the Canes a dynamic backfield. Ward is a perfect fit for OC Shannon Dawson’s Air Raid offense, and the Hurricanes are loaded at WR. The OL, always a strength under Cristobal, will be very good with 121 career starts returning.

Defensively, Miami has a nasty DL that might be a top-10 unit in the country. That’s led by EDGE Rueben Bain, who was Third-Team All-ACC as a true frosh. The LB corps is one of the best in the ACC. The best player on the second level, LB Francisco Mauigoa, came over from Wazzu last offseason and now reunites with Ward.

The shakiest positional unit on the entire team is the secondary, where three new starters are being broken in. If the Hurricanes disappoint, it will likely be because they are easy to pass on. If the Hurricanes win the ACC, it’s likely because the new faces in the secondary play well.

  • Strength of Schedule: 56

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

The tried-and-true two-step process to guarantee yourself year-over-year improvement: Field a better roster than the year before, while playing an easier schedule. That’s the case we have here – the Hurricanes are going to top last year’s 7-5 finish.

Further, I believe the Hurricanes have enough talent to win the ACC. But I’m simply not ready to tie money up for months on the idea that Miami could go 10-2. Our system has a slight lean to the over, but this is a pass for us.

21. SMU Mustangs

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 11 | Offense: 11 | Defense: 16

Slapstick “SMU boosters buy way into Power conference” storylines aside, SMU enters its first year in the ACC on the shortlist of teams capable of making the conference’s championship game. That’s partly because SMU already had a P4-quality roster, and partly because of scheduling luck.

Depending on who you read or listen to, SMU is either one of the P4’s biggest sleepers, or SMU is one of the P4’s likelist to underwhelm expectations. Let’s investigate the cases on both sides.

SMU is a CFP sleeper

SMU went 11-3 last season in the AAC, one of the G5’s strongest conferences. HC Rhett Lashlee, entering Year 3, is 18-9 overall. Last year’s offense finished top-25 on a per-play basis, and the defense soared into the top-40. Both units return a ton of talent.

The offense is legitimately dangerous – and already one of the ACC’s best – with QB Preston Stone and a loaded set of skill players. The defense brings back its best players, with a small handful of P4 transfers added to augment the holdovers. 

SMU will disappoint in its transition to the P4

Sure, the Ponies went 11-3 last season. But SMU went 0-3 against the P4, with losses to Oklahoma, TCU, and Boston College in the bowl game. This year, SMU will play 10 opponents from the P4. In addition, the positions where SMU appears to be weakest on both sides of the ball – OL and CB – are not spots you can hide deficiencies. It is also fair to point out that SMU’s depth – while great at a few individual positions like RB – is not yet above average for the P4.

  • Strength of Schedule: 68

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.8
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Finally a betting opportunity!

As you can see, we come down decidedly in the “SMU is a CFP sleeper” camp. SMU enters the ACC with arguably the most offensive firepower of any team outside of Miami. And the defense’s rapid improvement suggests another step forward is a possibility.

The schedule, in particular, is extremely promising. The Ponies play one of the softest schedules of any P4 team, with two patsies followed by home games against BYU and TCU. Our system is calling for a 10-2 year that would leap over this win total.

We’re also wetting our beaks on tickets for SMU to make the CFP and SMU QB Preston Stone at 150-to-1 to win the Heisman.

27. Louisville Cardinals

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 48 | Offense: 100 | Defense: 8

Louisville started 10-1 in HC Jeff Brohm’s first season. And though the Cardinals lost their last three games, the campaign as a whole was an unmitigated success.

The same could be said for the offseason, where Brohm pulled in On3’s No. 1 portal class, signing 28 transfers. The offense needed a makeover, so Brohm added instant-starters QB Tyler Shough, RB Donald Chaney Jr., and WRs Caullin Lacy and Ja'Corey Brooks.

Shough, a former starter at Oregon and Texas Tech, has a ton of ability, but injuries have dogged his entire career. Brohm is betting big that Shough can make it through a full season. Hey, it worked for Washington with Michael Penix. If Shough can, the passing offense is going to be very good. The run game will likely take a step back with Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo both now in the NFL.

Last year’s defense was spectacular against the run, and it finished top-30 in sacks. Brohm loaded up on senior transfers to plug holes left by departed defenders. The depth along the DL looks suspect, but the starters look strong, with stud former FCS DT Thor Griffith being counted on to cave pockets immediately.

The secondary loses feisty CB Jarvis Brownlee, but DC Ron English swears the new group, replenished with veteran portal additions, will be even better. Brohm’s offenses run at a very slow pace, mitigating the amount of time his defense is on the field.

  • Strength of Schedule: 60

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.1
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Louisville’s schedule provides a strong possibility of a 3-0 start. But Louisville must play road games at Notre Dame and Clemson and home games against SMU and Miami during what will be a defining six-week stretch after that. With Shough’s health questions and so many new players on the roster, we are going under the number.

33. North Carolina State Wolfpack

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 82 | Offense: 60  | Defense: 91

New NC State QB1 Grayson McCall had a tremendous spring game, going 16-for-20. McCall is a tremendous fit for OC Robert Anae’s system, in that he’s very good at timing concepts, is accurate short and intermediate, and can beat defenses with his legs. An OL that returns four starters has a top NFL prospect at LT in Anthony Belton. The skills are also improved, with a few immediate-impact transfers added to last year’s breakout player, slot dynamo KC Concepcion. NC State’s offense appears improved, perhaps even significantly so.

On defense, the Wolfpack lose leader LB Logan Wilson. But excellent DC Tony Gibson returns multiple NFL prospect in the front seven, including EDGE Davin Vann, who briefly considered declaring for the NFL Draft.

NC State also returns a star CB (Aydan White) and an active nickel (Devan Boykin). This defense could hold steady despite Wilson’s loss if the pair of new starting safeties get up to speed quickly.

  • Strength of Schedule: 59

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.8
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

NC State should bag at least three wins in the OOC, and do, at least, get Tennessee in Raleigh. The really good news comes in the ACC slate, where the Pack managed to avoid Florida State, Miami, SMU, Louisville, and Virginia Tech!

Indeed, NC State’s ACC schedule is the easiest in the entire conference. If the offense significantly improves and the defense doesn’t fall off, NC State is going to be sneaky dangerous. Our system leans over, but we’re close enough to the margins to pass.

35. Virginia Tech Hokies

  • Returning starters: 11 offense, 10 defense
  • Returning production: 4 | Offense: 1 | Defense: 13

Virginia Tech has been mentioned as a “sleeper” so often this offseason that they can no longer be considered a sleeper. But the reasons for optimism are very real. The returning production speaks for itself. The only projected starter on either side of the ball that wasn’t starting last season is DT Kelvin Gilliam, a former top recruit who was a rotational player for Oklahoma the past three years.

The offense was listless during last year’s 2-4 start, but it caught fire during the 5-2 finish, scoring 30 or more points in all five wins, and 38-or-more in four of them. This coincided with the ascension of QB1 Kyrone Drones, a beefy dual-threat who ran for over 1,000 yards last year (with sacks omitted). Drones is difficult to defend because he excels down the field, forcing defenses to play two-high safeties.

You could make the argument that every offensive position group will be the best in 2024 that it’s been since HC Brett Pry took over. The Hokies augmented ample returning experience on defense with a small handful of portal additions. VT is solid on all three levels, and also appears to have depth at every position.

  • Strength of Schedule: 65

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Virginia Tech has the prerequisites in place for a true breakout season: Tons of returning production, coaching continuity, an ascension arrow pointing upwards at the end of last season… and a super-easy schedule. In the OOC, VT plays No. 43 Rutgers – and no other opponent that my power rankings rank in the top 90.

In ACC play, VT’s schedule isn’t as easy as NC State’s. But it’s darn close, with the Hokies avoiding FSU, SMU, NC State, and Louisville. We do see a path for VT to make real noise in the ACC. However, with a bullish market having pushed the win total to 8.5, we do not see any preseason betting value here. The current number is the correct number.

42. California Golden Bears

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 41 | Offense: 36 | Defense: 58

Cal has not won more than six games – and by extension not finished above .500 – since 2019. The Vegas number of 6.0, then, might raise an eyebrow. I’ll end the suspense: It isn’t high enough. I’m a big fan of the offense, first and foremost because RB Jadyn Ott is a star. Ott will break out nationally this fall, and I believe he has a real chance to be RB1 in a loaded RB class in April. Ott runs behind an above-average ACC OL that returns 112 career starts.

It will be fascinating to see who wins the QB competition between incumbent Francisco Mendoza and import Chandler Rogers – the loser makes for great depth.  Either way, they’ll be working with an underrated cast of pass-catchers and have the benefit of the attention defenses are forced to pay Ott. 

HC Justin Wilcox is a defensive guy. And while the team’s holistic strategy early in his tenure was to support that side of the ball, Wilcox has evolved his thinking. With more offensive firepower, Wilcox has ramped up the tempo on offense, leaving the defense on the field more often. That naturally led to worse PPG allowed numbers. The area Wilcox must fix in 2024 is a pass defense that got ripped for a No. 128 finish in pass YPG last year (the run defense was actually solid). With four starters returning in the secondary – and some Wilcox tweaks – the expectation is improvement in that area in 2024.

  • Strength of Schedule: 49

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 7.0
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.0
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

In my opinion, too much has been made of Cal’s lack of familiarity with its new ACC opponents and the amount of miles it will have to travel this fall. Cal plays seven home games, with three of those opponents traveling multiple time zones to get to California. And the lack of familiarity could end up helping Cal more than hurting it – 10 opponents are about to get introduced to Ott and Cal’s up-tempo offense for the first time.

Remember Wilxon’s second team, that Cal squad that went 8-5 in 2019? The 2024 incarnation is just as talented.

We like Cal to go at least 7-5 in 2024, but we have the leeway of a push even at six wins.

52. North Carolina Tar Heels

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 99 | Offense: 112 | Defense: 65

In five seasons since he returned to UNC, HC Mack Brown has posted an average record of 7.6-5.4. This despite starting either Sam Howell or Drake Maye at QB over those five seasons (with OC Phil Longo calling the shots in four of them).

Longo, of course, went to Wisconsin last offseason, and Maye went No. 3 overall to the Patriots in April. I do not believe that projected QB1 Max Johnson will be drafted in April. Johnson, who comes over via LSU and Texas A&M, is a statue in the pocket who lacks big-league arm strength. Typically, Johnson has been exactly as good as the supporting cast around him. We also have the question of whether Johnson can stay healthy for the entire season.

UNC does return stud RB Omarion Hampton, but the OL in front of him returns only one starter. I like TE Bryson Nesbit, but the WR corps is solid, not difference-making. OC Chip Lindsay did not impress during his first season. The offense seems destined to regress, perhaps significantly.

A defense that allowed 27.3 PPG lost its best player, LB Cedric Gray. New DC Geoff Collins does have a lot of talent returning up front, and three starters back in the secondary. Outside of a 2019 aberration, the defense has underachieved under Brown. Can Collins turn it around?

  • Strength of Schedule: 66

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 7.5
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

If UNC overachieves, this weak schedule will be in part to thank. After a Week 1 road trip to Minnesota on a Thursday night, UNC has three straight likely wins in the OOC. The ACC schedule lines up well, too, with UNC avoiding Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, and SMU. I don’t love this roster, and I’m not super-confident in the coaching staff either, but UNC has only one likely loss on this entire schedule.

With a hyper-reasonable current 7.5 win total number out there, we are unable to fade UNC despite our considerable reservations. 

55. Syracuse Orange

  • Returning starters: 10 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 16 | Offense: 16 | Defense: 45

Syracuse is a highly intriguing summer handicap. Last year’s team, Dino Babers’ last, was representative of the end of the Babers era. The Orange started 4-0, then got whipped by Clemson, FSU, UNC, and Virginia Tech. Babers publicly lamented his team’s lack of depth as injuries started to pile up (those started early, with TE Oronde Gadsen knocked OFY in Week 2).

Syracuse went 2-7 down the stretch, picking up enough wins to qualify for a bowl, where they were forced to start TE Dan Villari as a Wildcat QB and take a shellacking from USF (45-0). Syracuse fired Babers and hired former Georgia recruiting ace Fran Brown.

Brown wasted no time, getting aggressive in the portal with immediate starters like former Ohio State QB1 Kyle McCord. Brown’s first roster is an intriguing mix of holdover experience and plug-and-play additions from a portal haul that On3 ranked No. 9(!). McCord underwhelmed at Ohio State. But by any measure, he’s a seismic upgrade over what Syracuse had at the position last year

 The Orange will have a strong running game with RB LaQuint Allen running behind an OL that returns four starters. Gadsden teams with an intriguing set of WRs to give McCord ample weapons. Defensively, the Orange are shifting from a base 3-4 to a hybrid 4-3. Interestingly, all three new starters on the unit are the base DL. JACK Fadil Diggs was a starter at A&M, and the rest of the projected starters in the LB corps and secondary also started last year.

  • Strength of Schedule: 67

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.0
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Syracuse’s path to finishing above .500 is as follows: A legitimate jump on offense from last year’s 23.5 PPG while holding steady on defense. Against this weak schedule, that’ll be enough.

The Orange have a shot to start 5-0 (my system projects 3.7 wins in those games). The schedule picks up in the last seven, with two coin-flip games, a likely win, and four games where Syracuse will likely be underdogs of more than three points. I’m relatively bullish on this team.

Unfortunately, so is the market – with the win total set at 7, we don’t see any value on a betting opportunity.

57. Duke Blue Devils

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 81 | Offense: 78 | Defense: 62

Former Miami HC and Penn State DC Manny Diaz takes over following Mike Elko’s departure for Texas A&M. That isn’t the only change, of course. QB Riley Leonard and EDGE RJ Oben – who both left for Notre Dame – were among 17 exits in the portal. To Diaz’s credit, he rebounded with a solid portal class, finishing No. 58 in On3’s holistic rankings that account for talent lost and acquired.

The biggest addition was former Texas QB Maalik Murphy, who will immediately take over for Leonard. Murphy is an intriguing mystery box. His size/speed/arm combination drew soft Vince Young comparisons in Austin.

Murphy was up-and-down in starts against BYU and Kansas State after Quinn Ewers’ injury, posting a 3/3 TD/INT rate on 56.3% completions. He’s an odd player. In that, we know he has a strong arm, but didn’t see him throw downfield much in the short sample, and in that, he’s a strong athlete who apparently prefers not to leave the pocket.

Either way, Duke’s offense hinges on Murphy’s play, and whether or not the new-look OL can coalesce. Duke is blessed with good skill talent. On defense, Duke has a strong LB corps and one of the conference’s best secondaries, including lock-down CB Chandler Rivers. That’s good news, because Diaz loves to leave his CBs on islands while sending the heat. The question is whether or not a DL that lost a ton of experience can hold up.

  • Strength of Schedule: 63

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 5.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Duke has an extremely soft non-con slate, with what look like three likely wins and then a coin-flip at Northwestern. The ACC schedule isn’t as forgiving, with a gauntlet of FSU, SMU, Miami, and NC State in succession after the midway point.

I believe the most likely outcome for this team is a 6-6 finish that would sneak over the total. But our numbers are too close to Vegas’ for us to pull the trigger.

58. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 44 | Offense: 8 | Defense: 108

Georgia Tech went 7-6 in HC Brent Key’s first season. The Yellow Jackets easily could have finished 4-8 had miraculous wins against Miami and UNC not gone their way. But there were ample encouraging signs for the future, first and foremost the progress of the offense. The attack was feast-or-famine, but, for the first time in years, the Yellow Jackets could pile up points when things were clicking.

QB1 Haynes King had over 3,500 yards of total offense – the offense could be even better if he cuts down on the sacks taken and turnovers. King’s mobility was one reason GT’s rushing attack led the ACC. RB1 Jamal Haynes also returns, as do four starting OL.

GT’s offense is a proven commodity at this point. This handicap comes down to whether the Yellow Jackets’ defense can improve any from “objectively bad.”

Here’s the bad news: With EDGE Kyle Kennard and DT D’Quan Douse transferring out, GT’s already feeble pass rush got worse. In fact, only three sacks from last year’s team return. Key loaded up on portal additions at DL and LB – but both spots are suspect until proven otherwise. In the secondary, GT has a pair of strong starting safeties, but the CBs are unproven.

  • Strength of Schedule: 17

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.0
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.0
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

There are some Georgia Tech fans out there in the market. I am not one of them. The offense is frisky – and the running game is legitimately good – but the turnover issues and defensive weaknesses are too pronounced for me to get behind the Yellow Jackets against this brutal schedule.

GT plays Georgia and Notre Dame in the OOC, and they have one of the hardest draws in ACC scheduling. My numbers say that the Jackets play easily the toughest schedule in the ACC. I’m going under the number.

70. Boston College Eagles

  • Returning starters: 9 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 27 | Offense: 21 | Defense: 59

Much has changed since new HC Bill O’Brien was in charge at Penn State post-sanctions. But O’Brien took quickly to the new landscape in CFB, bringing in the No. 43 portal class. Where O’Brien particularly succeeded was in beefing up the skill talent surrounding dual-threat QB Thomas Castellanos. New adds RB Treshaun Ward, WRs Jayden McGown and Jerand Bradley, and TE Kamari Morales are all projected starters. The OL lost stud OG Christian Mahogany, but returns a few NFL prospects, led by RT Ozzy Trapilo (who was given a Round 6 projection by Blesto this summer).

The offense is likely to be better in 2024. Can the defense stave off regression? It returns adequate production, but I have questions about the undersized front six.

Last year’s defense got stampeded by the run – ranking No. 118 in run yards allowed – and this year’s group appears likely to have the same issue. Under former HC Jeff Hafley, BC typically had better success against the pass. But Hafley was a longtime secondary coach who was known for developing defensive backs. Can Boston College retain that strength (No. 26 pass YPG allowed last year) without him? One thing that would really help is improving the pass rush – the Eagles ranked No. 131 in sack percentage last year.

  • Strength of Schedule: 45

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Boston College did well to hire O’Brien in the wake of Hafley’s surprising decision to accept an assistant job on the Packers’ staff. I do think O’Brien will have success here. That might have to wait until Year 2, however. Boston College’s roster has clear weaknesses, and the team did not schedule itself an easy OOC (likely 2-2).

In addition, I’m very curious how BOB designs an offense around a dual-threat QB like Castellanos who prefers to run. O’Brien’s offenses typically have a pocket-confined thrower capable of hitting timing concepts.

Castellanos is talented, but is unproven in areas that O’Brien has typically prioritized. We’re going to pass on a bet, here.

77. Pittsburgh Panthers

  • Returning starters: 9 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 92 | Offense: 80 | Defense: 98

Everything fell apart for Pitt during last year’s 3-9 finish. The defense badly missed DT Calijah Kancey’s disruption, sagging across the board. But it was the offense that truly flatlined. For the second straight season, Pitt fell off by more than 10 PPG (41.4 to 31.3 to 20.2). Your eyes are not deceiving you: The Panthers scored less than half as many PPG in 2024 as they did in 2022.

Big changes were needed. So 10th-year HC Pat Narduzzi blew everything up and hired 31-year-old former Western Carolina OC Kade Bell. Bell’s offense finished No. 4 in PPG in the FCS last year. Going back further, Bell’s offenses have topped 500 yards in 59.6% of games where he’s been OC. Narduzzi called the system "relentlessly fast and aggressive", and compared it to an NFL scheme run at hyper-tempo.

That’s great… but do the Panthers have the personnel for that this fall? QB Nate Yarnell is unproven, the skill talent on paper does not excite, and not much was added from the portal to support last year’s bad OL.

The system seeks to get defenses on its heels and paper-cut it to death with efficiency – but if the personnel itself isn’t efficient, quick three-and-outs could be on the menu. That would make things even more difficult for a defense that returns little from a unit that scarcely finished in the top half of the FBS in per-play metrics in 2023. Narduzzi signed a bunch of transfers in an effort to support the group – multiple inexperienced transfers are going to have to work out to avoid a second straight year of regression.

  • Strength of Schedule: 51

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

We like the impetus and thrust of Narduzzi’s offseason offensive makeover. But with serious doubts about the viability of the current personnel running it, and questions of whether the defense will be any better, we don’t have a choice but to go under this number.

80. Stanford Cardinal

  • Returning starters: 10 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 2 | Offense: 4 | Defense: 9

Stanford comes in off a third-consecutive 3-9 season, but for the first time in the past few years, there are reasons for optimism in Palo Alto. The 2024 Stanford Cardinal are more experienced – and indisputably, objectively better – across the roster from last year.

Importantly, that roster enters its second season under HC Troy Taylor, who plays a decidedly different brand of football from predecessor David Shaw. Last year’s offense, in acclimating to Taylor’s system, posted 20.6 PPG, a bottom-25 showing that was in line with Shaw’s last two teams. It would be stunning if Stanford’s offense didn’t improve significantly.

Dual-threat QB Ashton Daniels had an impressive spring and could have a breakout season. Daniels has a very good WR corps to work with, beginning with Day 2 prospect WR Elic Ayomanor. Ayomanor is a matchup nightmare – just ask Travis Hunter. The defense is led by a rock-solid LB corps. My chief concerns are DL depth, and just how much a secondary that finished No. 130 in pass YPG allowed will improve now that four of five starters return.

  • Strength of Schedule: 50

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 3.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 3.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

You can probably tell that I’m 100% convinced that this is the best Stanford team of the past few seasons. However, this sneaky-difficult schedule may conspire against them.

The Cardinal play five teams off of a bye, which is tied for the most in the nation. The OOC brings both Notre Dame and TCU. And in conference play, while Stanford avoids Florida State and Miami, the Cardinal do have to play Clemson, Virginia Tech, SMU, and Louisville. The first four road trips of the season will all be across the country. HC Taylor says Stanford will leave for cross-country road trips a day earlier than usual to combat that. 

ither way, we think this number is spot-on in lieu of circumstances.

81. Virginia Cavaliers

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 6 | Offense: 6 | Defense: 15

HC Tony Elliott is 6-16 across two seasons. I did not love the Elliott hiring, nor what I saw from his team over the first season-plus. However, Virginia showed tremendous progress last year – five of the nine losses were by one possession, with four of them coming by a FG or less – and now returns a metric ton of experience.

The first big decision for the coming year: Deciding between veteran Tony Muskett and youngster Anthony Colandrea. My pick would be Colandrea. Either way, the QB1 is going to have a better running game to work with five starters returning on the OL. I like Virginia’s chances of effectively replacing slot WR Malik Washington by spreading his targets between the returning Malachi Fields and portal add Chris Tyree, who’ll be lining up in Washington’s old spot.

Last year’s defense got lit up for 33.8 PPG. A rash of injuries that forced several underclassmen into the lineup prematurely did not help. Opponents ran on UVA at will (No. 114 rushing YPG allowed). The run defense should be improved with six of seven starters returning in the front seven. Virginia’s two-deep is dotted with defenders who have already been in college for at least three seasons. There are questions surrounding a secondary breaking in two new starters that doesn’t have much in the way of proven depth behind it.

  • Strength of Schedule: 43

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Virginia was far more competitive last year, and we expect them to improve again. This schedule does the Cavs no favors, however, including a road game to Notre Dame.

If UVA doesn’t at least split the Weeks 3-4 games against Maryland and at Coastal Carolina, it’s going to make it an uphill climb to get over the number. We’re going to pass on a bet.

82. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 73 | Offense: 59 | Defense: 79

Between 2016-2022, HC Dave Clawson’s Demon Deacons only finished under .500 one time – a 4-5 finish in the COVID-shorted 2020 season.

That was remarkable consistency at a P4 program devoid of resources. Last year, with QB Sam Hartman transferring to Notre Dame and only nine total starters returning, the team flat-lined to a 4-8 finish. Clawson’s slow-mesh offense, ahead of its time earlier in his tenure, suddenly wasn’t so hard to defend. The talent in the QB room had fallen off a shelf, sure, but defenses also didn’t seem as unsure of themselves, perhaps having become more accustomed in recent years to the proliferation of RPO concepts and similar slow-mesh concepts in other offenses.

Clawson traditionally preferred to develop his own QBs, in large part because the slow mesh requires meticulous timing and correct snap-bang decisions. But after last year’s debacle, Clawson reversed course to sign Hank Bachmeier, who started 37 career games between Boise State and Louisiana Tech.

Bachmeier has talent and experience. Will he have the slow-mesh timing down after one training camp? The offense’s fate will be determined by the answer to that question. By the PPG numbers, last year’s defense was actually the best of the Clawson era (27.2 PPG allowed). With seven starters back, Wake Forest has a chance to improve again – but a secondary breaking in three new starters will need to get up to speed quickly.

  • Strength of Schedule: 64

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.4
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Clawson was 10 games over .500 ATS until last year’s 4-8 ATS finish. He has made a habit of exceeding expectations and sending bettors to the window. But a lot of eggs are being put in the Bachmeier basket – a guy who was essentially run out at his last two stops – with no guarantee that he will be able to pick up this system in the short period he had to learn it.

While we think there’s a decent chance of further defensive improvement, the inexperienced secondary could conspire to foil those plans. We see a better chance of another 4-8 finish than a return to bowl season.

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