Ahead of the 2024 College Football season, I will be providing my college football best bets, organized by division. Not every team will have a bet that I am comfortable with for the season, and this will be noted.

To the left of each team name below, you will see a number. This is where the team ranks in my combined power rankings of the FBS and FCS. This is why some teams are ranked lower than 134, the number of teams in the FBS. 

My strength of schedule metrics below are out of those 134 teams in the FBS. While many use last year’s records – or projected 2024 records – for strength of schedule, my metrics stack schedules by the average strength of weekly opponents using my power ratings. This gives a more accurate gauge of the actual opponents being played. You can also access my full College Football Power Rankings for 2024.

The returning production numbers below come courtesy of ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

Below is where I stand on the Big 10.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 9 defense
  • Returning production: 56 | Offense: 66 | Defense: 39

This spring, CB1 Denzel Burke told the media: “It’s natty or bust.” Ohio State’s offseason strategy made that abundantly clear. First, difference-makers like Burke, RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Emeke Egbuka, DT Tyleik Williams, DEs Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau, and a host of others spurned the NFL to return to Columbus for a final season. Then, the Buckeyes signed superstars RB Quinshon Judkins and S Caleb Downs in the portal, as well as immediate starters QB Will Howard and C Seth McLaughlin. As if that wasn’t enough, HC Ryan Day convinced his mentor, Chip Kelly, to come aboard as OC.

The defense is going to be fearsome. Good luck trying to throw into the star-studded secondary with Sawyer, Tuimoloau, and Williams bearing down (OSU allowed the least passing YPG in the nation last year… and will be better in 2024).

The rushing offense in Kelly’s up-tempo scheme is going to be devastating – Judkins and Henderson could each be starting in the NFL right now, and Howard is a dangerous ground threat himself. OSU’s three biggest questions: 1) Can Day win big games?, 2) Will an OL that struggled last year be improved while breaking in two new starters (as well as McLaughlin)?, and 3) Can Howard, who never completed above 61.3% of his passes at KSU, make defenses pay for sneaking up to stop this epic RB duo?

  • Strength of Schedule: 21

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 10.8
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 10.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Keep in mind: OSU is going to the CFP even at 10-2. The schedule includes road trips to Oregon and Penn State, as well as the annual season-ending game against hated Michigan (this time in Columbus).

So while we lean over, we’re going to pass and focus on better-value plays on the board.

3. Oregon Ducks

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 9 defense
  • Returning production: 26 | Offense: 46 | Defense: 31

Ohio State had a tremendous offseason. So did Big 10 newcomer Oregon.

The Ducks were the only program in the nation to sign top-3 classes in both high school recruiting and the transfer portal. The portal class – led by QB Dillon Gabriel – was particularly vital amid the conference transition from the old Pac-12. The Ducks may be better in 2024 despite waving goodbye to 12 starters over the offseason.

The OL – a Joe Moore semifinalist last year – is full of NFL prospects, the skill positions are loaded, and I don’t see much of a qualitative drop-off from Bo Nix to Gabriel. Last year’s offense scored 44.2 PPG. This one, with decent health luck, will challenge that number.

Defensively, Oregon has one of the nation’s best LB corps. That unit cleans up messes in both the run and passing games. There are a few more questions up-front and in the secondary. The Ducks, who lost four of their top five interior DL, will try to plug the two holes next to stud DL Jordan Burch with a combination of former blue-chip recruits and a pair of mammoth P4 transfers.

The secondary badly needed a CB1 in the portal, and it got it with the signing of ex-Washington CB Jabbar Muhamed. Oregon will have a strong CB duo if Jahlil Florence can stay healthy. The safety group looks solid, but not difference-making. 

  • Strength of Schedule: 26

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 11.1
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 10.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Oregon and Ohio State are separated by less than one-half point in our Power Rankings. The reason we’re more confident that the Ducks can breach the identical 10.5-win total number comes down to scheduling.

Our system gives the Ducks a 92%-or-greater chance to win in 10-of-12 games. The other two? The home game against Ohio State, and a road trip to retooling Michigan. The Ducks frittered away a chance to play in the CFP last year by losing to Washington in the Pac-12 title game.

Oregon isn’t leaving anything to chance this time around – we see an 11-1 regular season coming, and we’re going over.

6. Penn State Nittany Lions

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 37 | Offense: 49 | Defense: 38

HC James Franklin has done a better job in Happy Valley than he’s given credit for, winning double-digit games in five of seven full seasons since 2016. The passing game has been the bugaboo that has prevented Penn State from competing for a national championship. New OC ​​Andy Kotelnicki – who helped turn around Kansas’ offense – was hired to address that. Can Kotelnicki coax out QB Drew Allar’s five-star talent? And will Franklin take the restrictor plates off the offense and allow Kotelnicki to get aggressive? Or will this be another disappointing offensive season that calcifies soft-comps between Allar and Christian Hackenberg? 

Allar will, at minimum, benefit from an awesome run game. PSU is loaded at RB, and Kotelnicki’s misdirection machinations in rushing concepts are going to make things even more difficult on opponents. 

On the other side of the ball, Franklin did well to hire ex-Indiana HC Tom Allen to replace Manny Diaz as DC. Penn State’s front seven is legitimately fearsome – for my money, it’s the best not just in the Big 10, but in the entire nation. Whether the defense is elite – or merely just very, very good – will come down to the play of a secondary that has to replace its top-three CBs.

PSU made some slick portal additions – Jalen Kimber from Florida and A.J. Harris from Georgia – to address that. It’s imperative that those two and holdover CB Cam Miller fortify the boundary. That group will be, of course, aided by a great pass-rush, as well as a pair of very good starting safeties.

  • Strength of Schedule: 36

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 10.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 10
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Kotelnicki’s addition raises the ceiling of the offense, and by extension the entire team. The schedule also provides a potential red carpet walk to the CFP. PSU has seven home games and plays zero road games against teams inside the top 19 of my College Football Power Rankings.

My system gives PSU a 77%-or-better chance to win in 11-of-12 games. The other? A home game against Ohio State in early November that my system sees as close to a pick ‘em. With the most advantageous schedule of the Big 10’s top three teams, and a number in Vegas a half-win lower than the other two, we’re going over the total.

10. Michigan Wolverines

  • Returning starters: 2 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 126 | Offense: 132 | Defense: 99

In my decade covering college football full-time, last year’s Michigan team was perhaps my favorite. My preseason pick to win the national championship, the Wolverines won all 15 games by at least six points. A mass exodus followed – rarely do you see a preseason top-10 team gutted to this degree. The coaching staff had to be totally reconfigured after HC Jim Harbaugh and seven assistants left for the NFL, with an eighth – RB coach Mike Hart – fired. There is some level of continuity with the promotion of Sherrone Moore – 4-0 as interim last year when Harbaugh was suspended – to HC. But Moore is new to that role, as are the team’s three new coordinators, and more than half its position coaches.

In April’s draft, the Wolverines had 13 players selected, falling just short of the NFL record. Five other Wolverines signed priority UDFA contracts with guaranteed money. Offensive regression is coming – this year’s team has questions at QB and WR, and the running game won’t be as potent with six from last year’s OL now in the NFL, along with RB Blake Corum.

It would similarly be impossible for this year’s defense to match last year’s incredible 10.4 PPG allowed. Not with five from last year’s starting lineup drafted in April and S Rod Moore tearing an ACL in the spring. Still, the 2024 Wolverines have the nation’s best DT duo and a top-3 overall DL. The Wolverines also boast a strong LB corps and a top-10 secondary led by one of the nation’s true lockdown CB1s, Will Johnson. 

  • Strength of Schedule: 7

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.3
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 9
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

The past couple of seasons, Michigan was criticized for its cupcake-filled non-con schedule. That emphatically changes this fall, with the Texas Longhorns coming to town (along with G5 bowl-probables Fresno State and Arkansas State). And while Penn State isn’t on the regular season schedule for the first time in over a decade, things haven’t exactly gotten easier with Oregon, Washington, and USC now on the slate.

Michigan also must close the season in Columbus. One bit of good news: Michigan hosts eight-of-the-11 games before the finale. This team won’t repeat as champions, but it could look a lot like the past few incarnations of Penn State, with a nasty defense and strong run game (but limited passing offense). All this said, with the market having driven this number to 9-flat, I do not see any value in a preseason bet.

20. USC Trojans

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 9 defense
  • Returning production: 77 | Offense: 99 | Defense: 34

USC’s offense will fall off a bit after losing QB Caleb Williams, RB MarShawn Lloyd, and four of its top six pass-catchers. But count on HC Lincoln Riley to get a big season from his choice at QB of holdover Miller Moss and UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava. I loved the portal signing of RB Woodie Marks – a three-down, ready-made replacement for Lloyd – and the pass-catchers will be, if nothing else, more explosive, with young speedsters everywhere.

The OL replaces three starters but has a strong chance of improvement from the leaky 2013 incarnation. Riley didn’t have a flashy offseason in the portal. But you have to give him credit for getting serious about turning around the moribund defense. 

USC hired talented DC D’Anton Lynn away from UCLA and rebuilt the positional staff beneath him with strong hires like former North Dakota State HC Matt Entz as LB coach. As for the personnel, the front seven looks tangibly improved over last fall. And while the secondary loses S Calen Bullock to the NFL, the 2024 pass defense is likely to improve upon last year’s No. 101 ranking in pass YPG allowed. After ranking No. 118 in PPG allowed last year, we know some degree of defensive improvement is coming.

I think USC will allow less than 29 PPG for the first time in a full season since 2018. And while the offense won’t average 41 or more PPG as it did in each of Riley’s first two seasons, it’s not likely to fall off as far as the defense will improve.

  • Strength of Schedule: 3

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 7.3
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

I’m tentatively bullish on USC. But the Trojans are about to embark upon an absolute gauntlet of a schedule – one of the three hardest in the FBS, according to my system. There are OOC landmines to open and close the regular season, with LSU in Vegas in Week 1 and a home date with Notre Dame on the last Saturday in November. While USC ducks Ohio State and Oregon in Big 10 play, the Trojans have road trips to Michigan and Washington on the docket, as well as home dates against Wisconsin and Penn State. I see either a 7-5 or 8-4 season coming in USC’s first campaign in the Big 10. The number is spot-on.

21. Iowa Hawkeyes

  • Returning starters: 10 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 10 | Offense: 33 | Defense: 2 

Iowa QB Cade McNamara has struggled in fall camp and may be in jeopardy of losing his job. But whereas the loss of McNamara (along with TEs Erick All and Luke Lachey) to season-ending injury banished last year’s offense into the pits of football hell, the Hawkeyes have sufficient QB insurance this fall in the form of former Northwestern QB1 Brendan Sullivan. One of the two will give Iowa competent QB play, something the Hawkeyes lacked after Deacon Hill (now in the FCS) took over.

The run game also could be the best it’s been in multiple years – the top-two RBs return, as do 154 career starts along what should be an exceptional OL. Iowa is likely to significantly improve upon last season’s No. 129 finish in offensive SP+ under new OC Tim Lester. The Hawkeyes appear to have the baseline personnel to run Lester’s preferred brand of offense, which is to establish the run and heave one-on-one downfield shots off play-action.

Iowa’s defense lost CB Cooper Dejean and EDGEs Logan Lee and Joe Evans to the NFL. Everybody else returns, and the three new starters were heavily used rotational players last year. The Hawkeyes have difference-making future NFL players at every level, with DT Yahya Black, LBs Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson, nickel Sebastian Castro, and S Xavier Nwankpa. Iowa finished No. 4 in scoring defense and No. 7 in total defense last year. The baseline expectation should be for the Hawkeyes to match those numbers in 2024. This is, objectively, one of the nation’s best defenses.

  • Strength of Schedule: 32

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Iowa went 10-2 last regular season… with an unthinkably inept offense. If the 2024 defense holds steady (a reasonable expectation), and the offense improves (it would be impossible not to based on where the bar is lying), Iowa has a clear path to improvement.

The pesky Hawkeyes could also be a sneaky contender for the conference title game due to their manageable Big 10 schedule. Sure, Iowa has a road game in Columbus, but the Hawkeyes avoid Michigan, Penn State, and Oregon. My system actually projects Iowa as four-point-or-greater favorites in every conference game outside OSU. The market has gassed Iowa’s number to an even eight. I’m still going over.

29. Wisconsin Badgers

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 31 | Offense: 57 | Defense: 25

While the offense scored a respectable 28.9 PPG against defenses ranked outside the top 20 last year, that number was cleaved in half against top-20 defenses. OC Phil Longo’s system begins to lose its teeth when his quarterback can’t throw deep – as was the case last year. The Badgers signed cannon-armed QB Tyler Van Dyke from the portal in an attempt to correct that. Can Longo’s system takes advantage of Van Dyke’s arm talent while cutting down on the bonehead mistakes that flipped games the other way while he was at Miami? I believe it will. Longo’s system will inoculate Van Dyke from the sorts of things he’s struggled with in the past, like making sound decisions under duress. Many reads in Longo’s system come pre-snap.

Wisconsin’s run defense was one aspect of the team that had been a strength in prior seasons that remained one in 2023. But Wisconsin’s pass defense was wildly inconsistent, and the defense didn’t generate enough turnovers. The pass-rush should be better this fall. The secondary has two foundational pieces to build around in CB Ricardo Hallman and S Hunter Wohler. 

  • Strength of Schedule: 11

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

HC Luke Fickell’s first team finished with the same record as the one before it (7-6), which was also the case in his first year at Cincinnati (4-8). The Badgers hired Fickell for what he did in Year 2 and beyond with the Bearcats. Getting Wisconsin on that kind of trajectory will require offensive improvement and a better effort from the pass defense.

As you can tell, we are optimistic on both fronts. But while we have a slight lean to the over, the rigorous schedule – which includes Alabama in the OOC – kept us on the sidelines.

35. Washington Huskies

  • Returning starters: 2 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 125 | Offense: 134 | Defense: 95

Coming off an appearance in the national title game, Washington has a brand-new coaching staff and roster. HC Jedd Fisch did the best he could – including bringing over a small handful of starters on last year’s Arizona team, and retaining QB Will Rogers’ commitment to the previous staff – but the Huskies are still in for a transition year. Rogers is a proven commodity, and UW has skill talent. But we know the Huskies’ Joe Moore Award-winning OL is going to be significantly down – it had to be totally remade this offseason.  

Last year’s defense was bad against the run and didn’t have much of a pass-rush. New DC Steve Belichick will build around a strong LB corps. Fisch was fortunate to coax CB Ephesians Prysock from Arizona to plug the large hole left by CB Jabbar Muhammad’s departure to rival Oregon. Washington’s secondary should be solid again. The big question mark is an inexperienced defensive front that appears to lack depth. The Huskies might struggle against the run again.

  • Strength of Schedule: 16

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

If there’s one saving grace for the new-look Huskies, it’s that the soft first four weeks of the schedule provide an opportunity to start 4-0 even as the roster is acclimating. To get over this number, it might have to – my system believes Washington will go 3-5 down the stretch. We’re too close to the Vegas number to place a wager.

41. Nebraska Cornhuskers

  • Returning starters: 9 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 20 | Offense: 32 | Defense: 30

HC Matt Rhule’s first Cornhusker team started 5-3 before a four-game losing streak to end the season. All four were by single digits (and three were by a field goal). Over the last four seasons, Nebraska is 5-21 in one-possession games, adding bitterness to the seven-year streak without a bowl appearance. This year’s team has a strong chance of breaking that streak: Nebraska ranks No. 20 in returning production, and the Cornhuklers signed the No. 18 recruiting and No. 33 portal classes. The biggest order of business is fixing an abomination of a passing offense that threw 16 interceptions on 52.1% completions. 

There is legitimate but theoretical hope on that front, with five-star true freshman QB Dylan Raiola in town and legit P4 starting-caliber WRs Jahmal Banks and Isaiah Neyor added from the portal. Is Raiola ready to start immediately? If he’s not, QB Heinrich Haarberg, a pure scrambler, is going to be forced into the lineup again.

Nebraska, stout on both sides of the line of scrimmage, won’t have problems running (No. 38 last year), nor stopping the run (No. 8). There are also reasons to believe the pass defense will improve from “decent” to “legitimately good” in Year 2 playing DC Tony White’s chaotic 3-3-5.

  • Strength of Schedule: 41

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Nebraska’s first seven games are manageable, with win expectancies of at least 56% in each game. The stretch run is brutal, with road games against Ohio State, USC, and Iowa, and home dates with Wisconsin and UCLA.

We like Rhule’s chances of snapping the bowl drought, but we don’t have a choice but to fade a hyper-optimistic win total of 7.5. 

43. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 13 | Offense: 40 | Defense: 20

Rutgers has surface-level similarities to Nebraska, perhaps a more mature but less physically-talented version. Both are run by former NFL HCs. Both run the ball effectively and play salty defense. Neither could throw their way out of a paper bag last fall. Rutgers’ solution to that issue was signing former Minnesota QB1 Athan Kaliakmanis and waving goodbye to last year’s starter, dual-threat Gavin Wimsatt. The idea is that the pocket-passing Kaliakmanis will finally give the team a legitimate aerial dimension, which will make it difficult to load the box against star RB Kyle Monangai (who I believe will go on Day 2 in April). 

The issue with that argument is that Kaliakmanis stunk last year – it’s why he’s no longer at Minnesota (the Gophers began publicly announcing scholarship offers to portal QBs before Kaliakmanis had left). Wimsatt, at least, brought the value of his legs. Kaliakmanis is going to have to show significant improvement as a thrower to offset that.

If nothing else, he’s in a good situation – Monangai is one of the best RBs in the country, and Rutgers has an intriguing WR corps. Defensively, Rutgers is strong. The Scarlet Knights finished No. 10 in pass YPG against last year playing predominantly out of a nickel formation. The secondary loses CB Max Melton, but returns four-of-five starters.

  • Strength of Schedule: 58

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.8
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Qualitatively, we see Rutgers and Nebraska as extremely similar. But Rutgers plays the easier schedule, and the Scarlet Knights’ win total was set one full win beneath Nebraska’s. Our system actually gives Rutgers a slightly higher win projection than Nebraska. Last year’s Rutgers went 6-6 in the regular season against a tougher schedule. We lean over, but don’t see enough value to tie up money.

46. UCLA Bruins

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 21 | Offense: 39 | Defense: 29

The Bruins, who have finished in the AP Top 25 in only one of the last nine seasons, are starting over again. UCLA tapped RB coach DeShaun Foster as the permanent replacement for Chip Kelly, who fled to become Ohio State’s OC following reports of friction with the administration.

Foster made an intriguing hire at OC with Eric Bieniemy. QB Ethan Garbers is a solid game manager, and RB T.J. Harden is an NFL-caliber talent running behind an OL that returns five starters. Garbers’ best skill is his ability to take care of the ball. Ball control could be the name of the game for UCLA in 2024.

The defense is almost assuredly going to regress with EDGEs Laiatu Latu and the Murphy twins now in the NFL, and ace DC D'Anton Lynn now at USC. The hallmark of the 2024 Bruins was intense pressure after the snap, forcing quick decisions. UCLA can’t play that way anymore. Still, the Bruins are blessed with a strong DT combination, a run-fitting LB corps, and a secondary that appears set with two strong CBs and the signing of three veteran safeties to compete for two vacated spots.

One sneaky area that UCLA improved: The kicking game. The Bruins signed Cal transfer Mateen Bhaghani – who missed only one FG or XP attempt last year – to replace kickers who combined to go 8-of-17 on FG attempts last year.

  • Strength of Schedule: 5

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.5
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

UCLA is likely to fall back a bit this year, and the Bruins must play one of the nation’s five-hardest schedules. But the market has already priced those factors in, driving this number down to 4.5. It’s the correct number.

49. Minnesota Golden Gophers

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 19 | Offense: 45 | Defense: 22

In lieu of circumstances, Minnesota’s 6-7 finish last fall probably shouldn’t be considered a disappointment. Yes, the Gophers had gone 9-4 the two seasons prior, but last year’s Gophers team had a terrible passing game, and a defense in a transition year. There was also a rash of injuries to deal with besides that. But keep in mind: That Gopher team was one flipped call by referees away from 4-8 – that infamous call, which brought back a Cooper DeJean punt return TD to preserve Minnesota’s lead late against Iowa, helped Minnesota finish 5-7. The Gophers had the top APR rating of qualifying teams when bowl representatives were looking for a fill-in. Minnesota, of course, went on to win that bowl game.

We should see big offensive improvement this fall. HC PJ Fleck grew tired of Athan Kaliakmanis in 2023 – his first order of offseason business was ushering Kaliakmanis out to give his spot to FCS standout QB Max Brosmer. 

Brosmer is seen inside the building as a clear upgrade. RB Darius Taylor and Sieh Bangura are a strong RB duo, and they’ll be running behind a massive starting OL that averages over 320 pounds. Mauling LT Aireontae Ersery already has the NFL drooling. The defense gets one of its top players back from injury (LB Cody Lindenberg) and adds the highest-rated recruit in Gopher history (S Koi Percich).

  • Strength of Schedule: 33

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 5.3
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

This bet could be decided by the result of the Thursday night opener at home against UNC. The Gophers should beat the two OOC cupcakes after that. But a gauntlet awaits in the Big 10, starting with Iowa, Michigan, and USC. My system installs the Gophers as underdogs of six points or more in six of their nine conference games. The Vegas number is spot-on. 

50. Maryland Terrapins

  • Returning starters: 4 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 102 | Offense: 123 | Defense: 42

Maryland’s offense was gutted over the offseason, with QB Taulia Tagovailoa and most of his OL moving on. The QB options – transfer MJ Morris and holdover Billy Edwards Jr. – are both mobile, but neither is a feared thrower. Accuracy issues from behind center could conspire to waste the talents of a strong WR corps. Whenever Edwards was on the field last year, defenses could cheat up knowing he couldn’t beat them down the field, giving RB Roman Hemby less room to work.

Maryland’s defenses have exceeded expectations the past two seasons, in large part thanks to an exceptional secondary. But four of the top six snap-getters in the secondary are now gone. CB Jalen Huskey was a nice addition from the portal, but Maryland likely isn’t going to earn a top-20 PFF coverage grade again as they did last fall.

The Terps have good size on the defensive interior. The LB corps has a couple of building blocks but needs to find an additional starter and develop some depth.

  • Strength of Schedule: 28

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.0
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

After years of playing gauntlet schedules in the Big 10 East, schedule-makers gave the Terps a break by keeping Ohio State and Michigan off the slate.

Maryland, however, will be introduced to Oregon. On the whole, the Terps schedule is a tail of two halves of the season. In the first six games, my system projects 4.6 wins (with 1.4 losses). In the last six, my system projects 1.5 wins (with 4.5 losses). We think it’s going to be difficult to reach 7-5 with the current state of the QB room.

56. Indiana Hoosiers

  • Returning starters: 10 offense, 11 defense
  • Returning production: 59 | Offense: 50 | Defense: 55

HC Curt Cignetti was dynamite at his last two stops – FCS Elon and James Madison – and will now jack up the degree of rebuilding difficulty in attempting to turn around one of the P4’s worst historical programs. Cignetti told reporters that speed and athleticism were glaringly absent when he reviewed the film of last year’s Hoosiers team. So Cignetti essentially nuked the roster and remade it on the fly. The Hoosiers were one of only five FBS programs that signed more than 30 players in the portal. These were not surface-level moves, either – Cignetti signed good players with proven track records. 

So while Indiana only returns four who were full-time starters for the Hoosiers last season, Indiana’s projected starting lineup only features one player who wasn’t a full-time starter somewhere last fall.

I’m bullish on Indiana’s offense being solid right away. Cignetti added QB Kurtis Rourke (No. 1 PFF grade in 2022), a new RB rotation, and a pair of starting WRs. This team’s ceiling will be determined by a defense that got lit up for more than 30 PPG and 400 YPG in each of the last two seasons. Cignetti went out and signed a bevy of defenders with starting experience, including six defenders from JMU. The defense will be improved.

  • Strength of Schedule: 62

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.3
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Indiana now has a proven staff, along with a roster that is improved at every position group. Beyond that, this schedule is going to help facilitate Cignetti’s most recent turbo-rebuild. Indiana is either going to start 3-1 or 4-0.

Of the eight games on the schedule after that, the Hoosiers have a win expectancy of 42% or more in five of them. We believe Cignetti will get Indiana into a bowl game in his first season.

63. Illinois Fighting Illini

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 71 | Offense: 82 | Defense: 49

Last year’s Illini threw more often than traditional HC Bret Bielema teams. This year, expect to see a bit more rushing – Illinois has multiple NFL prospects along an OL that looks like the best that Bielema has fielded in Champagne. Illinois also has assembled a decent group of pass-catchers for second-year starting QB Luke Altmeyer. This offense should be slightly improved over last year.

And as surprising as it might be to hear, the Illini’s 3-3-5 defense is also likely to improve despite losing star DT Jer’Zhan Newton and both linemates that started next to him. The 2023 unit finished No. 61 in total defense, but an abysmal No. 93 in scoring defense. And though reservations about the new-look three-man DL are justified, Illinois has a very good LB unit and a secondary with a ton of experience.

  • Strength of Schedule: 26

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

This is not an easy schedule, but it does have two things going for it: Two cupcakes in the first three games, and seven home games total.

Our system favors Illinois in four games, with two others essentially coin-flips. Here’s the concern: The Illini might have to go 6-0 in those games to get over this total.

Our system gives Illinois a win expectancy of 26% or less in the other six, (and 3% or less in three). Bielema’s Illini have finished 5-7 in two of his three seasons. We think the 2024 team is headed for the same.

64. Northwestern Wildcats

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 80 | Offense: 89 | Defense: 50

In the wake of the hazing scandal that got HC Pat Fitzgerald fired, Northwestern’s win total at sportsbooks was set at 2.5. HC David Braun – who went from North Dakota State’s DC to a Big 10 HC in a matter of months – improved from 1-11 to 8-5 against the No. 64 SP+ schedule strength. Braun used a top-20 SP+ defense and a +13 turnover differential to flip close games (6-2 in one-possession finishes) and overcome an anemic offense and a bumbling special teams unit.

Braun made big changes to the offense over the offseason, hiring South Dakota State OC Zach Lujan to run the offense. Lujan’s scheme is suited for dual-threat QBs, so QB Brenden Sullivan transferred out and former Mississippi State/Vanderbilt QB Mikey Wright transferred in.

Wright is a speedster. He’s unproven as a thrower, however. Wright is going to have to carry a lot of weight for the offense to show legitimate improvement because the OL is shaky and the skills are mediocre. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the defense could be even better than last year’s. Almost everyone returns.

  • Strength of Schedule: 31

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.3
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.0
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Northwestern’s schedule gets significantly tougher this fall, with Michigan and Ohio State both added to the slate. There figure to be fewer games available to get close enough to flip. My system projects Northwestern as a six-point-or-greater underdog in six games, with a win expectancy of 15% or less in four of them.

Northwestern played on the razor’s edge last year, with one of their three wins by three points or less coming against FCS Howard. Against the 2024 schedule, the team is going to have to be significantly improved to get to 6-6. This number opened at 4.5 – I would have passed against that number. Now that it’s an even 5, we see value in opposing the market and going under.

73. Purdue Boilermakers

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 63 | Offense: 37 | Defense: 92

The Boilermakers sagged to 4-8 in Year 1 of the post-Jeff Brohm era under HC Ryan Walters. The offense (No. 90 SP+ last year) lost its top-two playmakers, with WR Deion Burks transferring to Oklahoma and RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. now in the NFL. QB Hudson Card returns, and Purdue has a good OL. The lack of proven talent at WR – the top-four pass-catchers from last year all must be replaced – is a concern, especially considering the limitations of Card’s arm. 

The defense was relatively better last year (No. 72 SP+), but it also projects to have significantly less experience in the Week 1 starting lineup. This unit has one big going for it: S Dillon Thieneman. A three-star recruit, Thieneman was a revelation as a true freshman, finishing No. 2 in the FBS with an 89.5 PFF grade (behind only Tyler Nubin). Purdue lost its other young defensive star, EDGE Nic Scourton, to Texas A&M in the portal. Overall, I’m not convinced that Purdue’s defense is going to improve.

  • Strength of Schedule: 22

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 3.5
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Purdue has moved up seven spots in my Power Rankings from the end of last season – that seems reasonable. The Boilermakers would have to make a bigger qualitative leap than I’m projecting to get to 5-7 – and the over – against this bear of a schedule. The FCS opponent is the only game with a win expectancy higher than 50% (though two others are exactly 50% – Northwestern and Michigan State).

My system projects Purdue as two-touchdown-or-greater underdogs in five games. If the Boilermakers go 0-5 in those games, they would have to go 5-2 in the other seven to go over. We don’t see that as likely.

80. Michigan State Spartans

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 10 defense
  • Returning production: 72 | Offense: 109 | Defense: 19

The Spartans spent big to make a splash with former Oregon State HC Jonathan Smith. Michigan State was crying out for a talent infusion after last year’s 4-8 finish. Smith did strong work, signing 24 new players in the No. 12-ranked class.

Smith’s biggest Year 1 task is fixing Michigan State’s offense, which was a bottom-15 unit in the FBS last fall. This makes the signing of former four-star QB Aidan Chiles – following Smith from Oregon State along with standout TE Jack Velling – critical. A significant jump from the passing attack could turn Michigan State’s offense legitimate. Questions along the OL could conspire against that.

The Spartans benefit from a ton of experience returning on this side of the ball overall. Last year’s defense was decent against the run. The pass rush was adequate, but, once again, the pass defense was horrific. My concern is that the pass defense could be bad again. MSU does not project to have strong CB play. It stung double when starting S Jaden Mangham left in the spring to step into Rod Moore’s (ACL) spot at hated Michigan.

  • Strength of Schedule: 36

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.4
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

We do see Michigan State as improved – the Spartans jumped 14 spots in the Power Rankings since the end of the last season – but do not like their chances of getting to the 6-6 record necessary to go over.

Michigan State has a ludicrous stretch of Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa, and Michigan in succession in the middle of the season, and only two games on the schedule with a win expectancy over 50%.

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