Ahead of the 2024 College Football season, I will be providing my college football best bets, organized by division. Not every team will have a bet that I am comfortable with for the season, and this will be noted.

To the left of each team name below, you will see a number. This is where the team ranks in my combined power rankings of the FBS and FCS. This is why some teams are ranked lower than 134, the number of teams in the FBS. 

My strength of schedule metrics below are out of those 134 teams in the FBS. While many use last year’s records – or projected 2024 records – for strength of schedule, my metrics stack schedules by the average strength of weekly opponents using my power ratings. This gives a more accurate gauge of the actual opponents being played. You can also access my full College Football Power Rankings for 2024.

The returning production numbers below come courtesy of ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

Below is my breakdown of Conference USA for 2024.

50. Liberty Flames

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 68 | Offense: 63 | Defense: 63  

The best G5 team in the country last year, Liberty returns 14 starters from a 13-1 team. The most important of those is QB Kaidon Salter, who spurned P4 overtures. Liberty’s offense averaged 38.3 PPG last year and has a shot to breach 40 PPG in 2024. It’ll be interesting to see if Liberty throws a bit more in 2024 now that Salter has 18 career starts under his belt. The run game speaks for itself – it’s nasty – as it so often does for Jamey Chadwell.

Liberty played a bevy of underclassmen on defense last season. This year, they’re more experienced. After last year’s unit finished No. 101 in run success rate, Chadwell went to work beefing up the front-seven through the portal. While the run defense should be better, the pass defense may be worse. Two new starters are being broken in at CB, and the pass-rush doesn’t look particularly scary.

  • Strength of Schedule: 134
Liberty Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 11
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 10.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Remember the debate last year about Liberty’s strength of schedule prior to the release of the CFP final rankings? Get ready for the same debate in advance of the unveiling of the first 12-team CFP field this fall.

Against what my numbers say is the easiest schedule in the FBS, Liberty seems destined to win the CUSA again. The road trip to Appy State may determine whether the Flames go undefeated in the regular season. 

The 10.5 number is lofty, but we’re still going over.

88. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

  • Returning starters: 9 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 76 | Offense: 65 | Defense: 74 

WKU’s Air Raid offense has finished with an average No. 33 SP+ the past three seasons. With nine returning offensive starters, the Hilltoppers will continue to move the ball in 2024. HC Tyson Helton wanted to fix was the anemic run attack, so he added former Colorado State OC Will Friend – most recently an SEC OL coach – as run-game coordinator. I would expect the 2024 offense to be closer to its 2022 output (36.4 PPG) than last year’s (30.5 PPG).

The defense lost far more than the offense over the offseason. Helton was aggressive and creative in the portal in an attempt to plug myriad holes that had popped up. He signed defenders from the SEC, G5, JUCO, and sub-divisions. WKU’s staff believes the defense will be better this fall. We’re going to take a wait-and-see stance on that after the past couple of seasons.

  • Strength of Schedule: 110
WKU schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 7.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

WKU scheduled a gauntlet in the non-con, with road trips to Alabama and Boston College and a home game against Toledo. The Hilltoppers, however, do have a decent shot of standing 6-0 in CUSA play before a road trip to Liberty and a home game against Jacksonville State in late-November.

Our system leans over, but we’re going to pass.

101. Jacksonville State Gamecocks

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 103 | Offense: 88 | Defense: 113  

Rich Rodriguez has won everywhere he’s ever gone but Michigan. He was 15-22 over three years with the Wolverines (.405), and 112-65 (.633) with West Virginia, Arizona, and, now, Jacksonville State. That included last year’s stunning 9-4 finish in the Gamecocks’ first year in the FBS that doubled JSU’s preseason win total in Vegas. This year’s team only returns nine starters. It would be foolish to discount them because of that.

RichRod has proven that an old dog can learn new tricks in how he has navigated the transfer portal. One of his returning starters is former Georgia OG Clay Webb, a Third-Team All-American last season. RichRod has assembled a QB room with three dual-threats capable of starting.

The most surprising aspect of last year’s team was how salty the aggressive 3-3-5 defense was in Year 1 in the FBS. Strong up front with a very good secondary, expect that to be the case again in 2024.

  • Strength of Schedule: 120
JSU Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 7.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

This schedule features no FCS teams, but only one game against a P4 opponent. J-State’s hopes of reaching the conference title game are tampered by a conference slate that includes road games at both Liberty and Western Kentucky.

Our system leans under the Vegas number, but we’re going to pass.

125. Sam Houston Bearkats

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 25 | Offense: 12 | Defense: 78  

Sam Houston’s transition into the FBS in 2023 was not as smooth as Jacksonville State’s. The Bearkats started 0-8, with a hard-to-watch, three-and-out-fest of an offense. But SHSU had a disciplined, gap-integrity defense. And by the end of the season, the Bearkats showed signs of life. SHSU went 3-1 in their last four. All three of SHSU’s losses after the midway point came by single-digits. HC KC Keeler’s chief offseason priority was to fix the offense.

He made some intriguing signings, bringing in JUCO national champion QB Hunter Watson and 2023 CMU starter Jase Bauer to compete with former top-recruit Grant Gunnell for the starting job. He added ex-NIU 1,000-yard rusher RB Jevyon Ducker to share the load with John Gentry behind an OL that averages 310 pounds.

The defense returns less production. While it should be solid up front, a secondary that was lit up for 350+ passing yards in three games last year remains a question.

  • Strength of Schedule: 111
Sam Houston

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Sam Houston’s path to topping this win total is offensive improvement – which is essentially guaranteed – and flipping the results of close losses from 2023 (five one-possession losses).

The schedule provides ample opportunities for wins, with only one P4 opponent (UCF) on the slate. Buoyed by late-season improvement, portal additions, and a strong coaching staff, we’re going over the number.

136. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

  • Returning starters: 4 offense, 3 defense
  • Returning production: 111 | Offense: 96 | Defense: 120  

Middle Tennessee’s roster suffered a lot of attrition after the firing of head coach Rick Stockdale. The man hired to replace him, ex-Vanderbilt HC Derek Mason, showed some aptitude for working the portal early. 

Offensively, Mason was able to convince several familiar faces amongst the skill group to return. The OL only returns one starter and 26 career starts. After running a spread system with a quick-hit, short passing game, MTSU intends to shift to a scheme with a downfield passing game and downhill rushing attack.

Across the line of scrimmage, the DL returns zero starters. The secondary returns only one. The man tasked with getting this rag-tag group on the same page is new DC Brian Stewart, who was coordinating in the XFL last year. MTSU does return both starting LB for the 4-2-5 system. But the defense seems destined to regress with the lack of experience up front and in the secondary.

  • Strength of Schedule: 112
Middle Tennessee Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

MTSU plays a brutal non-conference schedule that includes Ole Miss, Duke, and Memphis in September, with the WKU game tucked inside that stretch – not ideal for a team with a new staff. But while a 1-4 start seems destined, MTSU’s last seven games provides no fewer than five legitimate opportunities for victories.

The Vegas number is correct – no bet for us.

138. New Mexico State Aggies

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 3 defense
  • Returning production: 128 | Offense: 98 | Defense: 133 

Jerry Kill qualified for bowl games in each of his last two seasons, culminated by last year‘s 10-5 finish. Kill stepped down after the season, and several significant pieces hit the portal shortly thereafter. New HC Tony Sanchez inherited a roster that he had to rebuild on the fly. Training camp will feature open competitions for starting gigs around the roster.

That starts at QB, where three transfers will vie to be Diego Pavia’s replacement. It is unclear if the team will be able to throw. But it should be able to run. There was only one departure on the two-deep of what was already a strong OL, and the RB room appears to be a strength.

New Mexico State had a solid run defense last year (No. 48), but was susceptible against the pass (No. 104). Most of the key players to that success against the run are now gone. The trick for new DC Joe Morris will be to keep the stinginess against the run with a new cast of characters while hoping that a new-look secondary is better in coverage. NMSU was able to convince 2023 First-Team All-CUSA SS Da’Marcus Crosby to transfer over from Sam Houston.

  • Strength of Schedule: 117
NM State

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

NMSU faces an uphill climb to extend the bowl streak to three-straight seasons. With three hazardous road trips on the schedule – at Fresno State, Jax State, and Texas A&M – the Aggies are likely going to have to go 6-3 against the rest of the schedule to get there.

The Vegas number is closer to reality – too close, it turns out, to invest in.

153. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 120 | Offense: 108 | Defense: 122 

Do you ever have a betting season where you can’t miss on a team? Louisiana Tech was the inverse of that for me last year.

HC Sonny Cumbie’s squad started 3-3, frittered away three-straight losses by one-possession, and then seemed to pack it in, getting blown out in their last three games to finish 3-9. Because of all that, Cumbie, 3-9 in each of his first two years, enters this season on the hot seat.

The reason I liked LTU last year was because they had a very good WR corps with two All-CUSA performers and a superb secondary led by a Thorp Award semi-finalist (CB Willie Roberts). All three are now gone – only one starter returns in each position group.

The Bulldogs are likely to run a bit more this fall with RB Marques Crosby back from injury and RB Donerio Davenport imported from Texas State. The defense is shifting to a 3-3-5 in an attempt to combat the spread formations proliferating in the conference.

  • Strength of Schedule: 129
LA Tech

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.4
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

I don’t love this roster, and I’m weary of the coaching staff. But LTU does have one big thing going for it this fall: It plays one of the five-easiest schedules in the nation. LTU has road games against NC State and Arkansas in the non-con, but also an FCS opponent and FIU. In CUSA play, the Bulldogs avoid Liberty, and get Jacksonville State at home.

Our win total is essentially identical to Vegas’.

154. Florida International Panthers

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 34 | Offense: 20 | Defense: 69  

Mike MacIntyre has won four games in consecutive seasons, after which larger programs have come in to steal his best players. Last year, the Panthers started 3-1 and appeared to be on the precipice of a breakthrough. But FIU went 1-7 down the stretch, only beating winless Sam Houston in 2OT. On MacIntyre’s usual schedule, this is around the time of the breakthrough – he won 11 games in Y3 at San Jose State, and 10 in Y4 at Colorado.

What MacIntyre has going for him are a returning starter QB (Keyone Jenkins), a deep RB room, and strength along the trenches on both sides – including an OL that returns six with starting experience – and an experienced secondary. There are no stars on this roster. But depth is improved and there’s experience at important positions.

  • Strength of Schedule: 132
FIU Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

The opener at Indiana is the only P4 opponent that FIU will play. The CUSA schedule includes road games at Liberty and Jacksonville State. But FIU avoids WKU, and each of the remaining nine games is theoretically winnable. Our system leans under, but due to MacIntyre’s history and FIU’s experience, we’re going to pass.

156. UTEP Miners

  • Returning starters: 4 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 118 | Offense: 118 | Defense: 114

UTEP appeared to be slowly building towards respectability under former HC Dana Dimmel, but it turned out that the 7-6 finish in 2021 was as good as it was going to get.

In 2022, UTEP choked away a couple chances to win a sixth game in the final month and missed a bowl at 5-7. The wheels came off last year during a disastrous 3-9 season that led to Dimel’s firing. UTEP drastically changed its identity over the off-season, hiring former Austin Peay HC Scottie Walden.

Walden brought along 11 transfers from his former team, including nine on the offensive side (five of whom started last year). This was a pragmatic move in lieu of UTEP’s seismic change from Dimel’s methodical approach to Walden’s up-tempo attack. Walden will have to work magic with a crew that has precious little FBS experience. UTEP’s defense was gouged for 6.1 YPP last season, and then it lost two of its best starters over the off-season.

The Miners do have one difference maker returning in EDGE Maurice Westmoreland, a First-Team All-CUSA selection in 2023. Unfortunately, Westmoreland is the only returning starter in the front-seven. And the pass defense was abysmal last year.

  • Strength of Schedule: 114
UTEP Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 3.3
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

With road trips to Nebraska, Liberty, Colorado State, WKU, and Tennessee on the schedule, UTEP is going to have to play well at home to have a chance to top last year’s three victories.

The likeliest outcome is that UTEP treads water or takes a step backwards during this transition year. We’re going under the total.

161. Kennesaw State Owls

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 9 defense
  • Returning production: 87 | Offense: 95 | Defense: 54

Kennesaw State is a tricky team to project in their first year in the FBS. After going 49-10 between 2017-2021, the Owls joined a new FCS conference in 2022 and sagged to 5-6. Last year, Kennesaw shifted from a triple-option offense to a zone-read/RPO-heavy offense out of the Pistol. The transition did not go smoothly. The Owls went 3-6, with all three wins coming against D-II opponents. 

Kennesaw remains run-heavy – the Owls ran more than twice as often as it passed last fall. Though the Owls have 16 starters back, the depth on this roster appears paper-thin. Because of that, you can expect the offense to try to bleed the clock to protect the rest of the roster, much like Sam Houston did last year.

Of course, Sam Houston entered the FBS with a better track-record of success and promptly went 3-9 in Year 1 – with one of those wins coming over Kennesaw. 

  • Strength of Schedule: 118
Kennesaw State Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 2.5
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 2.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Kennesaw did well to keep an P4 opponent off this year’s schedule. But three solid G5 opponents await to begin the season, and the Owls got a tough draw with CUSA scheduling, drawing each of the conference’s best teams and only avoiding NMSU, which is expected to fall back into the bottom-rung of the conference this fall.

Our number is identical to Vegas’ – this is a no-bet.

More College Football Betting Previews for 2024