Ahead of the 2024 College Football season, I will be providing my college football best bets, organized by division. Not every team will have a bet that I am comfortable with for the season, and this will be noted.

To the left of each team name below, you will see a number. This is where the team ranks in my combined power rankings of the FBS and FCS. This is why some teams are ranked lower than 134, the number of teams in the FBS. 

My strength of schedule metrics below are out of those 134 teams in the FBS. While many use last year’s records – or projected 2024 records – for strength of schedule, my metrics stack schedules by the average strength of weekly opponents using my power ratings. This gives a more accurate gauge of the actual opponents being played. You can also access my full College Football Power Rankings for 2024.

The returning production numbers below come courtesy of ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

Below is where I stand on the Mid-Atlantic Conference (MAC) for 2024.

69. Miami (OH) Redhawks

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 42 | Offense: 54 | Defense: 40

I referred to last year’s Miami squad as the “Iowa Hawkeyes of the G5.” The Redhawks had arguably the nation’s best special teams unit, a top-20 overall defense (15.9 PPG allowed), and a run-heavy offense that chipped away at the sticks and kept the clock running. This year’s team must replace RB1 Rashad Amos (transferred to Ole Miss), WR1 Gage Larvadain (transferred to South Carolina), and All-American K Graham Nicholson (transferred to Alabama). But there’s a chance it’ll be just as good as last year’s 11-3 team.

QB1 Brett Gabbert made it eight games before a season-ending injury in 2023. The offense became even more run-heavy at that point, narrowing Miami’s margin for error. But Gabbert is back. And while there will be new starters at RB and WR, there’s a solid mix of program veterans and P4 portal imports.

The best news offensively is an OL that returns four starters. Defensively, Miami’s stellar LB corps returns both Matt Salopek and Ty Wise, who combined for 166 tackles last year. The Redhawks have the MAC’s best defense.

  • Strength of Schedule: 100

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

The one thing standing in the way of a repeat 11-win season? The schedule. Miami plays Northwestern, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame in the non-con (Cincy comes to Oxford). In MAC play, meanwhile, Miami must travel to Toledo. The Rockets were the only team other than Miami (FL) to beat the Redhawks last regular season.

Either way, the Vegas win total seems exceedingly light in lieu of what Miami returns. We’re going over.

90. Toledo Rockets

  • Returning starters: 4 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 122 | Offense: 127 | Defense: 103

Perennially the MAC’s most physically-talented team, Toledo heard its name called in Round 1 of the NFL Draft this past April (CB Quinyon Mitchell). The projected returning roster would have been prohibitive MAC favorites – had QB Dequan Finn and RB Peny Boone not transferred. Now, with only eight starters returning – and bottom-15 returning production overall – it’s fair to wonder if Toledo is headed for a step back.

The new backfield – QB Tucker Gleason and Jaquez Stuart – is, at the very least, experienced and trusted within the program. The bigger question for the offense is an OL that replaces all five starters – nobody on the unit has started an FBS game before.

The defense has one superstar – S Maxen Hook – and a couple of other proven veteran starters returning, joined by a small handful of transfers. The defense will be strong if the three new starters at CB turn out to be up for the task.

  • Strength of Schedule: 131

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

While this Toledo team might be a little down from last year, the soft schedule may make it difficult to notice. Toledo opens with a pair of OOC gimmies, followed by road games at Mississippi State and WKU that the Rockets hope to split. In MAC play, Toledo has the good fortune of hosting Miami (OH), Bowling Green, and Ohio. The toughest road trip is to NIU.

Though this is one of the five easiest schedules in the country, we’re low enough on Toledo’s roster to fade it against a generous 8.5 number.

92. Bowling Green Falcons

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 45 | Offense: 25 | Defense: 73 

HC Scot Loeffler went 7-22 over his first three seasons. Most would not have gotten a fourth, but Loeffler has rewarded BGSU’s faith with consecutive bowl appearances, including his first winning season in 2023 (7-6).

This year’s squad, on paper, is the best Loeffler has had. Bowling Green has 15 returning starters and ranks No. 4 in the MAC in returning production.

BGU returns its starting backfield, multi-purpose TE Harold Fannin, and four starting OL. Defensively, the entire three-man DL in BGU’s 3-3-5 returns – and it might be the best front in the MAC. The Falcons also have two former All-MAC DBs in a secondary that returns three with starting experience. There are new faces at WR and LB, but, overall, we know what we’re getting with BGU. This is a veteran-laden team with a strong coaching staff.

  • Strength of Schedule: 93

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.8
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Bowling Green is going to take a couple of paycheck losses with road games at Texas A&M and Penn State. But as long as the Falcons can take care of ODU at home, they’ll make it out of OOC play 2-2. In the MAC schedule, BGSU has to travel to Toledo but gets both NIU and Miami (OH) at home.

We lean towards a 7-win regular season, but we’re not seeing enough value at the 6.5 number to bet it.

102. Northern Illinois Huskies

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 45 | Offense: 74 | Defense: 23

NIU did a better job than most of its conference mates fending off bigger programs in the transfer portal. The Huskies return 16 starters in what will be HC Thomas Hammock’s most veteran-laden squad. The arrow was pointing up for this squad following a change at OC in late September after a 1-3 start. In the last nine games, NIU more than doubled its PPG average while going 6-3. The three losses were by a combined 11 points, including a two-point loss at Toledo.

The Huskies will have the conference’s best rushing offense. NIU returns a star RB in Antario Brown, along with a MAC-best OL that returns four starters. WR Trayvon Rudolph should be closer to his 2021 self now that he’s a full year clear from a knee injury that cost him the 2022 campaign.

Defensively, NIU returns all five DBs from what is the conference’s best secondary. The front seven lacks star power but boasts both experience and depth.

  • Strength of Schedule: 122
  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

NIU must travel to Notre Dame and NC State in the non-con. Outside of that, this is an extremely manageable schedule. In MAC play, NIU avoids Ohio and is the only upper-tier MAC team that gets to host Toledo. There are, however, tricky road games at Bowling Green and Miami (OH) that could decide this team’s ultimate fate. The Vegas number is spot-on.

117. Western Michigan Broncos

  • Returning starters: 9 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 12 | Offense: 34 | Defense: 17

The Broncos have fallen off to a 12-15 the past two seasons. WMU has the MAC’s most-experienced returning roster – including 17 returning starters – to try to turn the ship around in 2024. Interestingly, that experienced roster will be playing under new coordinators on both sides of the ball. OC Walt Bell, the former UMass HC, has called plays at four previous FBS programs. There’s an opportunity to start quickly here, with nine returning starters on offense.

The 2023 defense was a mess. HC Trent Taylor and former DC Lou Esposito butted heads during the season, and the unit, which had only two returning starters, allowed 7.7 PPG more than the previous year (31.8). There is hope of getting that number back into the mid-20s with eight returning starters and multiple P4 transfers. New DC Scott Power, the former DC at Louisiana Tech, must get this group on the same page immediately.

  • Strength of Schedule: 126
  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.4
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

WMU has a brutal first two games – at Wisconsin and Ohio State. The last 10 games, however, make up one of the easiest stretches any team in the nation will play. That includes an FCS opponent, a manageable road game against Marshall, and a MAC schedule that fell perfectly. WMU ducks both Toledo and Miami (OH), and they get NIU at home.

A bowl trip appears to be in the cards, but the Vegas number doesn’t provide enough value to tie up money.

119. Ohio Bobcats

  • Returning starters: 2 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 127 | Offense: 126 | Defense: 119  

Ohio’s roster was raided of 12 contributors in the portal over the offseason. In last year’s bowl game, HC Tim Albin’s rag-tag squad – which lost numerous starters to opt-outs – whipped Georgia Southern 41-21. We’ll see if Albin has more rabbits in his hat this fall. Ohio’s top two QBs – Kurtis Rourke and CJ Harris – both transferred to the P4, leaving Parker Navarro as the starter. Navarro had 120 passing yards and 71 rushing yards in the bowl win. The WR corps is decimated, so this should be a run-heavy team that makes heavy use of Navarro’s legs. The good news is the OL projects to be solid.

On the other side of the ball, a defense that finished No. 6 in scoring also needs to find multiple new starters. Ohio’s 2023 defense relied on the pass-rush and generating turnovers – it’s not necessarily an easy formula to replicate with a new cast of characters. Ohio’s front-seven is the question mark. The Bobcats do benefit from the return of both starting safeties.

  • Strength of Schedule: 127

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Ohio is a weird proposition. The coaching staff is good, and the schedule is about as easy as it gets. But the roster does not inspire confidence.

All these factors in mind, the Vegas number is too sharp to make a referendum on.

132. Central Michigan Chippewas

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 85 | Offense: 81 | Defense: 70

HC Jim McElwain took over a 1-11 program and immediately turned it around, going 20-13 over his first three seasons. The past two years, however, CMU has sagged backwards, going 9-15.

The primary question this year? The same one that has dogged the program the past two years: Is there an effective quarterback on the roster? 

Bert Emanuel Jr. is a fabulous athlete – but his issues as a passer have stalled the offense and gotten him sent to the bench. Last year’s QB1, Jase Bauer, transferred to Sam Houston. Replacing him is Iowa transfer Joey Labas. It is utterly imperative that either Emanuel or Lebas step forward to seize the job. Whoever it is, the staff better be ready to build an attack around him – the pocket-passing Labas has a very different style than Emanuel.

The rest of the roster is in decent shape, with 13 returning starters. You could argue that every other offensive positon group outside of QB would qualitatively rank in the upper-half of the MAC. Last year’s defense that coughed up 31.1 PPG – third-worst in the MAC – returns six starters. CMU’s portal strategy on that side of the ball was to add beef up front to aid the run defense. It would also greatly help this unit if the offense stopped turning the ball over.

  • Strength of Schedule: 130
  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.8
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Finally some bettable value!

As you can see above, it turned out that my system saw a small handful of the MAC’s middle class nearly identical to the market. We appear to have bettable value with CMU, however.

The Chips’ schedule is a good news/bad news proposition. The bad news is that CMU is the only MAC team that must play the MAC’s top-6 rated teams in my power rankings. The good news is that the OOC is manageable – CMU should be favored in three of the four (but short favs in two of them). 

135. Ball State Cardinals

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 1 defense
  • Returning production: 115 | Offense: 68 | Defense: 131

Ball State has a good coaching staff – HC Mike Neu tailors the attack to the personnel on hand and squeezes everything he can out, and the DC is a two-time Broyles nominee – but precious little resources. Neu’s aptitude for finding and developing under-recruited gems has become muddied during the portal era, where big-spending programs poach the fruit of his labors.

This year’s team is an interesting thought experiment. Though RB Marquez Cooper was lost to San Diego State – and his HC at Kent State, Sean Lewis – Ball State’s offense returns eight starters.

BSU likes to thin boxes by spreading the field and then take advantage of numbers advantages wherever the might be – be it in the passing game, or with downhill running against thin fronts. The personnel – including four returners on OL – facilitates that. The fate of this team comes down to a defense that is a complete mystery. Lost to graduation are 10 of last year’s top-12 tacklers, and only one full-time starter returns. Neu played Reverse Monty to try to solve the problem – in his case, pragmatism, not paradox – by signing a bevy of transfers with the promise of early playing time. Did he choose wisely?

  • Strength of Schedule: 108

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.1
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 3.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Due to a tricky non-con slate – with road trips to two P4 programs and also James Madison – Ball State is going to have to do some damage in MAC play to return to bowl season. It’ll be interesting to see if Neu modulates his strategy in likely-to-lose OOC games – last year’s roster was decimated by injuries during a September gauntlet.

BSU did get a good draw with the MAC schedule, ducking Toledo, and getting WMU, NIU, Miami (OH), and BGU at home. Ball State needs to spring a couple upsets in that grouping and win a couple road games at lower-tier MAC programs to get back to the postseason.

We think that’s a more likely outcome than a 2-win floor-falling-out disaster scenario. We’re going over.

140. Eastern Michigan Eagles

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 117 | Offense: 105 | Defense: 123

I used to say that Frank Solich was college football’s most underrated coach. In Solich’s retirement, that crown has now been transferred to Chris Creighton. EMU had only ever played in one game prior to Creighton’s arrival – this is one of the worst jobs in the FBS. But the Eagles have played in six bowl games in the last eight years under Creighton’s watch. Though last year’s team dipped to 6-7 – with another bowl appearance – I’m here to tell you it was one of Creighton’s finest jobs.

That team was utterly devoid of talent – and star RB Samson Evans was dinged-up all year – but Creighton somehow found a way to get them back to the postseason. This is another squad that, talent-wise, we’d be seeing as DOA were it not for Creighton. QB Cole Snyder was a good get in the portal, but a new RB will be running behind an OL breaking in three starters with precious little experience. The defense loses a pair of LB who combined for 279 tackles last year – but with six starters back, the hope is that the unit doesn’t regress.

  • Strength of Schedule: 128

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.8
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

The schedule sets up well for another inspiring rally into the postseason for this undermanned Eagles squad. Outside of an OOC roadie at Washington, you can’t carve a loss into stone in advance. The other three OOCs are manageable, and EMU hit it right with the MAC schedule. The Eagles avoid NIU and Bowling Green, while getting Toledo and Miami (OH) at home.

With Creighton navigating the waters, we lean over but are going to pass.

146. Buffalo Bulls

  • Returning starters: 3 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 101 | Offense: 113 | Defense: 75 

Welcome back to the MAC, Pete Lembo! Lembo had a strong 33-29 run at Ball State a decade ago. He was an inspired choice after former HC Maurice Linguist bolted for an assistant job on Kalen Debour’s new Alabama staff. Linguist correctly gauged the heat of his seat and skipped town before the guillotine fell – he posted a 14-23 at UB and likely would have been fired if he failed to double last year’s win total (3-9).

It is difficult to project how Lembo’s first offense will look, because we basically haven’t seen any of the skill players who will be tasked with putting points on the board (and they did not impress in the spring). All three of Buffalo’s returning starters on that side of the ball are OL – Buffalo’s line, fortunately, is qualitatively in the upper-half of the MAC.

The defense returns seven starters, and boasts a strong, veteran-laden secondary. How quickly can it pick up a new system with the fourth new DC in four years coming in?

  • Strength of Schedule: 125
  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Lembo, unceremoniously dumped by Ball State, is a good coach. Most recently, he was special teams coordinator at South Carolina under Shane Beamer. You gotta know ball to fill that role on a Beamer staff, and Lembo proved it by building the country’s best special teams units en route to a Broyles Award nomination in 2022. Lembo’s current roster doesn’t inspire confidence, but if he can get his team to coalesce quickly – ostensibly by establishing the run and hindering opposing passing attacks – the Bulls could surprise. Buffalo plays one of the 10-easiest schedules in the country this fall.

151. Akron Zips

  • Returning starters: 3 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 106 | Offense: 124 | Defense: 56 

In this year’s wide-open MAC, it’s a near guarantee that one team projected to be bottom-barrel is going to surprise by challenging for a bid in the conference championship game and qualifying for a bowl. Could it be Akron? HC Joe Moorhead – an innovator of the RPO – has a mere four victories over two years. But last year’s team was closer to competitiveness than the 2-10 record indicated, with three OT losses and two more by one-possession. This despite the offense getting neutered by former QB1 DJ Irons’ season-long battle with injuries.

Former NC State/Cal QB Ben Finley portaled into to fight holdover QB Tahj Bullock. Finley would appear to be a good fit for Joe-Mo’s offense. Ex-Michigan State RB Jordan Simmons is likely to start at RB. Outside of standout WR Alex Adams, there isn’t much continuity, but there are plenty of P4 transfers who arrived looking for immediate playing time.

The defense was actually solid last year, quietly slashing its PPG allowed to 28. Akron has one of the better front-sevens in the MAC. The secondary is the question mark.

  • Strength of Schedule: 104
  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 3.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 3.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Akron has a gauntlet in September, with road games at Ohio State, Rutgers, South Carolina, and Ohio. If Akron can survive it intact, there are a small handful of winnable games in MAC play. Akron avoids Miami (OH) and gets Toledo and Bowling Green at home. Our system leans under, but we’re bullish enough on Joe-Mo to sit this one out.

162. Kent State Golden Flashes

  • Returning starters: 9 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 91 | Offense: 42 | Defense: 115

Kent State went 0-11 against FBS opponents in Year 1 for HC Kenni Burns. Burns inherited a hollowed-out roster that suffered a mass-exodus of transfers when ex-HC Sean Lewis left for Colorado. Burns’ strategy is a bit different from some of his MAC contemporaries. Instead of using the portal to promise P4 players in bad situations immediate playing time, Burns is building with young players. The depth chart has as many projected freshman/sophomore starters as senior starters.

But Burns at least will enjoy offensive continuity, with nine starters back on that side of the ball. Burns, a former RB coach at Minnesota, was unable to get his preferred ground-centric approach off the ground last year as Kent State was getting throttled weekly. This fall, KSU adds RB Ky Thomas, who nearly ran for 1,000 yards under Burns in 2021 with the Gophers. The OL was bad last year but returns five starters. Last year’s defense had major issues tackling. It remains undersized and short on depth.

  • Strength of Schedule: 109
  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 2.8
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 2.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Kent State must survive playing three brutal road trips to P4 opponents in September. Hopes for doubling last year’s win total rest on beating FCS St. Francis and stealing a home MAC game against EMU, Ball State, Ohio or Akron. At a number of 2.5, this one is over or pass. We’re going to pass.

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