Ahead of the 2024 College Football season, I will be providing my college football best bets, organized by division. Not every team will have a bet that I am comfortable with for the season, and this will be noted.

To the left of each team name below, you will see a number. This is where the team ranks in my combined power rankings of the FBS and FCS. This is why some teams are ranked lower than 134, the number of teams in the FBS. 

My strength of schedule metrics below are out of those 134 teams in the FBS. While many use last year’s records – or projected 2024 records – for strength of schedule, my metrics stack schedules by the average strength of weekly opponents using my power ratings. This gives a more accurate gauge of the actual opponents being played. You can also access my full College Football Power Rankings for 2024.

The returning production numbers below come courtesy of ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

Below is where I stand on the Mountain West Conference (MWC) for 2024.

37. Boise State Broncos

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 11 defense
  • Returning production: 35 | Offense: 92 | Defense: 5

Say this for new HC Spencer Danielson: He had a great first offseason. That began by convincing superstar RB Ashton Jeanty to return. It continued with bringing back OC Dirk Koetter and letting former OC Bush Hamdan walk. I mentioned last summer that forcing QB Taylen Green to run Hamdan’s pro-style, pocket-passing system was going to end in disaster. Now both are gone. Danielson convinced former five-star QB Malachi Nelson to transfer in from USC to take Green’s place. The WR corps goes five-deep, and the OL returns four starters.

Boise State returns starters at every position on defense! Last year’s unit allowed 25.6 PPG – the expectation this year will be to cut that number lower. Danielson promoted DL coach Erik Chinander to DC. Chinander spent five years as DC at Nebraska. He intends to run the same system as last year, affording Boise State’s experienced defenders scheme continuity.

  • Strength of Schedule: 83

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

This is the most talented Broncos team since the Chris Peterson era. We’re going to find out quickly if Danielson can coach. The season opens with a tricky road game across the country at Georgia Southern, followed by a brutal matchup at Oregon. In late-September, BSU hosts Wazzu. Fortunately, Boise State avoids Fresno State and Air Force in MWC play.

72. Fresno State Bulldogs

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 53 | Offense: 29 | Defense: 82  

HC Jeff Tedford stepped down in mid-July due to health concerns. Across two stints at Fresno State, Tedford went 45-22. The Bulldogs named Tim Skipper interim HC. Skipper led FSU to a 37-10 win over New Mexico State in the bowl game when Tedford took his first leave for the current health issues.

Skipper has a solid roster to work with—the starting backfield returns, as do two starting WRs. The OL struggled last year but should be better with four returning starters. A defense that has allowed around 21 PPG for the last three seasons hopes to stave off regression with only five starters back. A key to that would be the long-awaited breakout of former five-star USC EDGE Korey Foreman.

  • Strength of Schedule: 87

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Fresno State opens its regular season at Michigan, and it closes at UCLA. The 10 games in between will decide if Skinner is offered the job permanently. Fresno could be double-digit favorites in seven of them. The Bulldogs caught the MWC schedule right during this transition season – the Bulldogs are not scheduled to play heavy MWC frontrunner Boise State in the regular season. Unless the transition to Skipper is rockier than expected, my system agrees with the market that 8-4 is the most likely outcome.

78. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 66 | Offense: 67 | Defense: 52

HC Barry Odom went 9-4 in Year 1, bringing UNLV to its first bowl game since 2013. To repeat that level of success, he and OC Brennan Marion will have to replace QB Jayden Maiava, who transferred to USC. UNLV signed a pair of FCS standouts – Matthew Sluka (Holy Cross) and Hajj-Malik Williams (Campbell) – to compete with holdover Cameron Friel. Whoever wins the gig will be working with a deep RB stable and a strong WR corps led by All-American candidate Ricky White.

The Rebels’ stated defensive priority this offseason has been to figure out a way to cut down on the explosive plays allowed last season. The 2023 defense ranked a strong No. 34 in marginal efficiency and No. 10 in turnovers forced, but a ghastly No. 123 in marginal explosiveness. In conjunction with the issues on third-down – UNLV ranked No. 122 in third-and-long situations – the Rebels would often give back profits. The Rebels appear improved at every level. UNLV sneakily had a top-three special teams unit last year – they must replace K Jose Pizano, but the unit should be strong again.

  • Strength of Schedule: 84

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

The market has set a bullish line, here, with UNLV’s staff returning off a nine-win 2023 regular season. But the QB transition and the question marks on defense are not ideal against this tricky schedule. UNLV faces four P4 opponents in the non-con (if you still count Oregon State as a P4). In MWC play, UNLV has to play both Boise State and Fresno State – though both are home games.

The Rebels aren’t going to sneak up on anyone in 2024 – we’re fading the optimism and going under the number.

87. Wyoming Cowboys

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 75 | Offense: 93 | Defense: 36

HC Craig Bohl retired after 10 seasons following the best season of his tenure (9-4). DC Jay Sawvel was promoted to take his place, and the staff largely remains intact. Sawvel will hope to continue Wyoming’s identity as a strong defensive team. Last year’s unit allowed 22.3 PPG. With a ton of talent back, there’s a decent chance this group can lower that number.

The question for Sawvel was the question we often had about Bohl’s Cowboy teams – will the offense be competent? The run game is going to be good with RB Harrison Waylee running behind an OL that returns four starters. The team’s ceiling will be determined by the development of QB Evan Svoboda, a Josh Allen-sized signal-caller with a big arm. Svoboda is also a solid athlete – he qualified for the state title in the triple jump in high school.

  • Strength of Schedule: 94

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 7.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Last September, Wyoming pulled off a pair of wildly entertaining upsets in the non-con, beating Texas Tech and Appalachian State. With Arizona State (road) and BYU (home) on the slate this September, the Cowboys have a pair of low-tier P4 opponents to try to repeat the trick. Wyoming got an advantageous draw in the MWC, avoiding Fresno State and UNLV. The Cowboys also get Boise State in Laramie.

With a strong run game and a salty defense guaranteed, we’re confident enough to bet the over in Sawvel’s first year.

94. Colorado State Rams

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 61 | Offense: 44 | Defense: 68

In HC Jay Norvell’s second season, Colorado State showed improvement, finishing 5-7 (with two losses by a field goal or less). The 2023 Rams had a good passing offense and a solid run defense. But CSU couldn’t run the ball itself, and the Rams’ pass defense allowed the highest completion percentage in the nation.

CSU’s passing offense is going to be dangerous again with the return of QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (who spurned portal overtures) and All-American candidate WR Tory Horton (who spurned the NFL). TE Dallin Holker is gone, but CSU has two above-average G5 starters flanking Horton in the WR corps. There’s legitimate hope of big improvement for the run offense after RB Justin Marshall ran for 94 or more yards in each of the last three games of 2023 after entering the lineup in mid-November. And speaking of hope, it's almost assured that CSU’s pass defense will improve with four of five starters returning in the secondary – can’t be worse.

  • Strength of Schedule: 92

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

CSU has finished below .500 in six straight seasons. With so much experience back, in an MWC that is wide-open behind Boise State, the Rams are likely to break through to bowl season in Year 3 for Norvell. The OOC has Texas, Colorado, and Oregon State, but also two likely wins. Meanwhile, CSU is fortunate in MWC play to avoid Boise State and UNLV.

96. Air Force Falcons

  • Returning starters: 2 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 134 | Offense: 131 | Defense: 134

Last year, Air Force started 8-0 before the wheels fell off with four straight losses to close the regular season. The November faceplant coincided with a rash of injuries, most prominently to QB1 Zac Larrier. The injuries did provide experience for backups, which will be important in 2024 with Air Force returning the nation's least-experienced roster. In full seasons going back to 2014, Air Force has averaged nine wins per season. It will be one of HC Troy Calhoun’s best coaching jobs if he can match that number this fall.

The only returning starters on offense are the two WRs – in a passing attack that averaged only nine attempts per game last year. Air Force’s triple-option offense has reliably moved the ball over the years. But is this the year the Falcons start to feel the ill effects of the NCAA’s cut-block ban? On the other side of the ball, Air Force has finished in the top 6 nationally in defensive YPG allowed for four straight years. But with so little returning on defense, this could be the year that streak is snapped.

  • Strength of Schedule: 114

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.5
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Air Force has two things going for it: It plays a bottom-20 schedule, and it, as always, plays a different style of football, throwing a knuckleball to every opponent. Air Force’s P4 opponent, Baylor, is improved, and looking for revenge after Air Force’s upset win in the 2022 bowl season.

In the MWC schedule, Air Force has the good fortune of avoiding both Boise State and UNLV. Even so, we’re skeezed by the unknown roster in an era where it has become much, much harder to run the triple-option. Despite our respect for Calhoun, we have to go under.

106. San Diego State Aztecs

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 107 | Offense: 103 | Defense: 109

For years, San Diego State was the “Wisconsin of the G5”, with a methodical, run-heavy offense backed by a stingy defense. That changed the second HC Sean Lewis was hired. Last year, SDSU ranked No. 124 in pace, while Colorado, where Lewis spent last season as OC, ranked No. 11. Lewis is a branch off the Briles/Babers tree – he spreads the field, runs at hyper-tempo, gets the ball into space, and mixes the run with the pass. SDSU has entered the “Aztec Fast” era. 

SDSU lost 24 lettermen from last year and, in essence, replaced them with 25 additions from the portal. Lewis added a few familiar faces – RB Marquez Cooper and WR Ja’shaun Polk both starred for Lewis a few years ago when he was HC at Kent State. The defense shifts from a 3-3-5 to a 4-2-5 featuring three safeties. The one potential problematic area is the DL, where one starter is being added to the base alignment on a roster where only one player returns with starting experience.

  • Strength of Schedule: 103

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Not an easy schedule for Year 1 under Lewis. SDSU plays three former Pac-12 schools in the OOC – Oregon State, Cal, and Wazzu – and also didn’t get an easy draw in the MWC. Though SDSU avoids Fresno State, it has road games scheduled at Wyoming, Boise State, and UNLV.

I loved the Lewis hiring. But I see growing pains in Year 1. We’re on the under.

108. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 7 | Offense: 17 | Defense: 4

HC Timmy Chang improved from 3-10 to 5-8 in his second season. Improving that win total again – and potentially reaching a bowl – is going to come down to Hawaii’s play in the trenches. Chang’s Run’n’Shoot offense is good to go at the skill positions. QB1 Brayden Schager threw for 3,542 yards last season, and Hawaii returns one of the G5’s deepest sets of WRs. Last year’s OL regressed while dealing with injuries – will the unit, which returns three starters, improve in 2024 and give Schager more time to throw?

On the other side of the ball, Hawaii returns all seven starters in the back-seven. Last year’s pass defense was solid, and this year it should be even better. The issue could be the DL, which returns zero starters. The Rainbow Warriors ranked No. 102 in rushing YPG allowed last year. Hawaii has allowed 31 PPG or more for three straight years.

With so much returning production, the Rainbow Warriors have a decent shot to slash that number beneath 30 PPG – but the run defense must improve.

  • Strength of Schedule: 115

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 5.8
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Hawaii drops from its usual 13 games to the standard 12. Oddly, Hawaii scheduled two FCS teams. That means that Hawaii must go 7-5 to achieve bowl eligibility. For our purposes, its two likely wins. The rest of the slate only brings one P4 opponent – UCLA is traveling to the Islands on Aug. 31 with a new coaching staff, a potential upset opportunity for Chang and company.

Against this soft schedule, we’re betting that Hawaii gets to at least 6-6 to go over the number. 

110. Utah State Aggies

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 86 | Offense: 43 | Defense: 110

Coming off three straight bowl appearances, this Aggies team promised to be Blake Anderson’s best since he won the MWC title in 2021. But Utah State fired Anderson for cause in mid-July, citing Title IX violations. A week later, projected starting CB Andre Seldon Jr. – who had transferred from New Mexico State – died in a cliff-diving accident. It would be understandable if the team’s attention was divided.

The offense is going to be a big strength, with four returning OL starters, a legitimate star in WR Jalen Royals, and a potential post-hype sleeper in former Iowa QB1 Spencer Petras. That offense might be tasked with winning shootouts every week again. Last year’s unit allowed 34.7 PPG, and this group may not be much better. It lost three of its top-four tacklers from last year and is going to greatly miss Seldon. 

  • Strength of Schedule: 89

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Coming off a traumatic summer, it’s not ideal to face USC, Utah, Boise State, and UNLV in the first half of the season. Later on, there are tricky road games at Wyoming, Wazzu, and CSU.

The interim staff has some strong pieces, but it faces a tall task in getting USU to a fourth-straight bowl. We don’t see it happening, so we’re going under the number.

115. San Jose State Spartans

  • Returning starters: 3 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 131 | Offense: 130 | Defense: 116

New HC Ken Niumatalolo will not use the triple-option offense he became associated with at Navy. Instead, the Spartans are transitioning into former Texas State passing coordinator Craig Stutzmann’s “Spread and Shred” scheme, a hybrid of the Run & Shoot and Air Raid. Stutzmann did incredible work helping to turn around TSU’s offense in one year. He would appear to have a lot less help in Year 1 at SJSU, with an offense that returns WR Nick Nash and RG Marist Talavou and not much else.

SJSU smartly retained DC Derrick Odum, whose 3-4 flex defenses are known to confuse and harass opposing quarterbacks. The Spartans have led the MWC in sacks in two of the last four seasons, and finished top-4 in turnovers in four of the last five. The defense should be able to carry over some of the success from its stifling play during the six-game win streak to close out last year’s regular season. It appears strong up front and in the secondary – depth could be a question if injuries strike – but has a few questions in the LB room.

  • Strength of Schedule: 81

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.5
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

The Spartans draw three former Pac-12 opponents in the non-con, with road games at Wazzu and Oregon State, and a home game to cap the regular season against Stanford. Home games against Sacramento State, Kennesaw State, and Nevada bring three strong opportunities for victories. SJSU has five other games on the schedule with win expectancies between 31-35% – they’ll need to win two of those to go over. We’re too close to the margins to make a bet

143. Nevada Wolfpack

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 78 | Offense: 56 | Defense: 93

HC Jeff Choate, one of eight new coaches in the MWC, is the former Texas co-DC and Montana State HC. Nevada had a surprising amount of success in the portal, signing a top-15 G5 haul. This, in part, explains Nevada’s solid showing in returning production – the Wolf Pack signed a bunch of experienced, workmanlike P4 plug-and-plays such as ex-BC RB Pat Garwo and ex-Wisconsin EDGE Kaden Johnson.

Nevada has a solid starting backfield between returning QB Brendon Lewis and Garwo. Lewis doesn’t have a lot of talent to work with amongst the pass-catchers, but Nevada does have a decent OL. The strength of the defense is the LB unit, which returns Nevada’s top two tacklers from last year. The DL and secondary could both be problematic. 

  • Strength of Schedule: 71

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 2.4
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 2.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

While the roster should be a bit better from the pair of 2-10 teams that preceded it, it may be difficult to tell from Nevada’s final record. The schedule – the MWC’s toughest – is going to make things tough, with three non-cons against P4 opponents and two others against Sun Belt bowl teams. Nevada also got a tough draw in the MWC, with the top three projected teams in the conference on the schedule. It sure does feel like a 2-10 or 3-9 season is coming. We’re not confident enough in our read to tie up money here.

147. New Mexico Lobos

  • Returning starters: 3 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 124 | Offense: 129 | Defense: 100

HC Danny Gonzalez was let go after going 11-32 in four years. He didn’t leave behind an easy rebuilding job for grizzled veteran HC Bronco Mendenhall, who signed more transfers (29) than all but seven programs this offseason. The Lobos will be well-coached, with Mendenhall bringing in coordinators he has extensive experience with. But that staff is facing a total reset year. This is a team in need of a talent infusion.

Mendenhall’s offenses emphasize the quick-hit passing game and leveraging the quarterback’s legs. Sophomore QB Devon Dampier appears to be a really good fit. The skill groups don’t excite, and the OL projects to start five transfers after all five starters left. The 3-3-5 defense returns a decent DL with all three starters returning. But the LB corps is uninspiring, and the secondary is a major question mark.

  • Strength of Schedule: 72

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 1.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 2.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

New Mexico’s schedule is the second-toughest in the MWC, just behind Nevada. The Lobos face a non-con gauntlet with road games at Arizona and Auburn, and a home game against Wazzu. The only good news is that New Mexico was able to duck Boise State in the MWC slate.

Even so, Year 1 looks like a Mission Impossible scenario for Mendenhall. Mendenhall went a combined 8-16 (.333) in his first seasons at BYU and Virginia. In every other season, Mendenhall was 127-65 (.661). The time to buy New Mexico stock is the future. In 2024, fade them.

More College Football Betting Previews for 2024