Ahead of the 2024 College Football season, I will be providing my college football best bets, organized by division. Not every team will have a bet that I am comfortable with for the season, and this will be noted.

To the left of each team name below, you will see a number. This is where the team ranks in my combined power rankings of the FBS and FCS. This is why some teams are ranked lower than 134, the number of teams in the FBS. 

My strength of schedule metrics below are out of those 134 teams in the FBS. While many use last year’s records – or projected 2024 records – for strength of schedule, my metrics stack schedules by the average strength of weekly opponents using my power ratings. This gives a more accurate gauge of the actual opponents being played. You can also access my full College Football Power Rankings for 2024.

The returning production numbers below come courtesy of ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

Below is where I stand on the SEC for 2024.

1. Georgia Bulldogs

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 7 defense
  • Returning production: 29 | Offense: 22 | Defense: 61  

Georgia has a Heisman contender at QB (Carson Beck), deep RB and WR rooms, and two NFL-caliber TEs (Oscar Delp and Ben Yurosek). And did we mention the best OL in the nation? That OL is teeming with NFL talent. The running game will almost assuredly be better in 2024 after the import of former Florida RB Trevor Etienne and the return of former elite recruit RB Branson Robinson, who was injured last year. It’s impossible to replace a player like TE Brock Bowers, but Georgia did the best it could in adding Yurosek. 

On defense, the Bulldogs have a top-3 front seven and a top-5 secondary nationally. That secondary is arguably the team’s biggest question mark – three starters from last year were taken in the first two days of the NFL Draft – is a testament to just how few holes can be found on this roster.

Georgia also has the nation’s best coaching staff, one of the best special teams units in the country, and depth at every position. Georgia is the rightful preseason No. 1. On top of that, the Bulldogs have a motivational chip on their shoulder after dropping from No. 1 to out-of-the-CFP after losing to Alabama in the SEC title game. 

  • Strength of Schedule: 2

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 10.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 10.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Georgia is No. 1 in our preseason Power Poll as well. Still, we’re going to pass on betting here. The Bulldogs play the No. 2 strength of schedule, per my numbers. In the new 12-team CFP era, Georgia has two-loss leeway to still gain entry. We think there’s better value on the board.

4. Texas Longhorns

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 36 | Offense: 26 | Defense: 60  

A Texas offense that averaged 35.8 PPG and 478.0 YPG in 2024 returns QB1 Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns replaced WRs Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders with portal additions WRs Isaiah Bond, Silas Bolden, Matthew Golden, and TE Amari Niblack.

UT also has a top-five national OL led by likely R1 pick LT Kelvin Banks. One potential area of concern is RB, where CJ Baxter – projected to replace Jonathon Brooks – and backup Christian Clark have both already been lost for the season to injury. Texas, which now has only three healthy scholarship RBs, says it will be monitoring the portal for a depth add this last week before the season kicks off.

Last year’s defense, led by DTs Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat, only gave up 18.9 PPG. This year’s unit will have a new identity – last year, opposing offenses had to avoid the middle on running concepts and skew more to the pass against Texas. Two of the three brand-new starters on UT’s 2024 defense are the two DTs. The pass-rush will be improved, in part due to the addition of active former UTSA EDGE Trey Moore. The secondary, which got lit up in a few high-profile matchups last year, also got better over the offseason.

  • Strength of Schedule: 12

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 10.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 10.0
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

The OOC features a treacherous road trip to Michigan on September 7, and two home games against bowl-likely G5 programs. The SEC schedule includes the annual game with Oklahoma, as well as a home date with Georgia and a roadie to Texas A&M. UT managed to avoid Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU, and Missouri, however. We lean over but are going to pass. One more injury at RB and the ‘Horns are in deep, deep trouble.

5. Alabama Crimson Tide

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 98 | Offense: 58 | Defense: 121

HC Kalen DeBoer’s first order of business is improving QB Jalen Milroe’s efficiency through the air. Milroe’s arm strength and scrambling ability speak for themselves – his draft stock will soar if DeBoer can improve his intermediate accuracy and timing.

Multiple new starters with lofty recruiting pedigrees are being broken in at the skills. Those groups currently lack star power and will need difference-makers to emerge. The biggest thing Alabama’s offense has going for it is one of the nation’s best OLs. This was the under-discussed foundation that Washington’s powerful offense was built upon – the Huskies’ OL won the Joe Moore Award last year.

The Crimson Tide’s defense lost two starting EDGEs and both starting CBs within the first 60 picks of April’s draft. It stung extra when star S Caleb Downs transferred to Ohio State. But new DC Kane Wommack – the overqualified former standout HC at South Alabama – has plenty to work with, including one of the nation’s best LB corps for his 3-4 scheme (including the awesome ILB duo of Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell). The DL has waves of depth, and the secondary, while down, returns SS Malachi Moore and adds insta-starter CB Domani Jackson from USC.

  • Strength of Schedule: 10

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Alabama has an unfortunate scheduling quirk of playing four teams off a bye. But at least the Tide are likewise off a bye in the games against Georgia and LSU (and the road trip to Oklahoma is after the quasi-bye against FCS Mercer).

The talent is slightly down in Tuscaloosa this year. But DeBoer is one of the nation’s best coaches, and arguably its best offensive mind. This looks like a 9-3 or 10-2 team that will be in the thick of the CFP race. We’re too close to the 9.5 number to make a bet. 

7. Ole Miss Rebels

  • Returning starters: 10 offense, 10 defense
  • Returning production: 23 | Offense: 9 | Defense: 80

Coming off an 11-2 season, HC Lane Kiffin – the “Portal King” – signed the No. 1 portal class in the nation. This despite losing RB Quinshon Judkins to Ohio State. Judging from the team’s comments after Judkins left, Judkins did not appear to be well-liked in the locker room. Either way, RB is the only offensive position breaking in a new starter. Kiffin hilariously added a bevy of bodies to that room, making this a potential four-RB platoon. One possible configuration is Logan Diggs and Rashad Amos splitting early-down work, with Ulysses Bentley and Henry Parrish divvying passing-down work. RB depth is good in a system that runs at hyper-tempo.

The OL returns five starters and is a top-20 national unit. The passing game will be even better with QB Jaxson Dart and a deep pass-catching corps returning.

The defense may start more 2024 portal additions than defenders on last year’s roster. The biggest new name is DT Walter Nolan, the crown jewel of Kiffin’s portal class. Every member of the front seven was starting somewhere last year.

The Rebels, who had some struggles in short-yardage situations last year, will be stingy up front. Last year’s secondary was inconsistent. While it showed some ball-hawking ability, it also got lit up by LSU, Texas A&M, and Georgia. Though the secondary might be the team’s biggest weakness, we think it’ll be improved in 2024.

  • Strength of Schedule: 27

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Kiffin, bypassed for serious consideration for the Alabama job due to booster questions, has a chance to vet out his spite by bypassing the Tide in the SEC’s pecking order this fall. To do that, he needs to figure out an effective RB rotation, and he needs his secondary to make a jump.

Ole Miss has a breezy OOC schedule. In SEC play, the Rebs avoid Alabama, Texas, Texas A&M, and Tennessee, while getting Georgia and Oklahoma at home. We like the Rebels to qualify for the new 12-team CFP, and we’re going over the 9.5 number.

9. LSU Tigers

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 60 | Offense: 79 | Defense: 28

QB Jayden Daniels and WRs Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. – who teamed up to make the Tigers one of the nation’s most entertaining teams in 2023 – were all first-round picks. LSU promoted a pair of assistants to co-OCs following Mike Denbrock’s departure to Notre Dame.

Pocket-passing QB Garrett Nussmeier, whom HC Brian Kelly has repeatedly praised since taking over, finally gets his chance. LSU’s skill talent is down, but that was an impossible inevitability to avoid. We don’t know the ceiling of the new LSU offense, but having one of the nation’s best OLs embeds a high floor. OTs Will Campbell and Emery Jones are both potential R1 picks.

Last year’s defense was a trainwreck. So Kelly cleaned – ahem – house over the offseason, firing DC Matt House and his assistants. In comes former Missouri DC Blake Baker to turn things around. LSU intends to use Harold Perkins Jr. at off-ball LB again. This is a good decision for Perkins’ NFL evaluation – his 6’1/220 frame won’t regularly work on the EDGE in the NFL – but perhaps not the best for LSU’s defense. LSU allowed over 2,000 rushing yards each of the last two seasons, the first time that’s happened in program history. This is the reason why Baker was targeted – his run defense at Mizzou last year was tremendous.

Of course, LSU’s pass defense last year was also crummy, ranking No. 118 overall and No. 92 in PFF coverage grade. Last year’s secondary was ravaged with injuries – better health alone will lead to instant improvement.

  • Strength of Schedule: 15

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.1
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 9.0
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

LSU’s offense is in for a drop-off, but defensive improvements could wash that out and leave this team qualitatively similar to last year’s 10-3 squad. LSU plays both USC and UCLA in the non-con.

The SEC schedule is manageable, however. LSU avoids the SEC’s top-two projected teams in Georgia and Texas, and the Tigers get Ole Miss, Alabama, and Oklahoma at home. We think the Vegas number is spot-on.

11. Oklahoma Sooners

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 54 | Offense: 114 | Defense: 3  

Oklahoma is so high on new QB1 Jackson Arnold that it didn’t seriously try to prevent Dillon Gabriel from leaving for Oregon. Expect dynamic WR Deion Burks, imported from Purdue, to get peppered with targets.

Multiple WRs were working back from injury at the start of camp, and then starting WR Nic Anderson suffered an injury during it, potentially putting his Week 1 availability in doubt. Oklahoma’s OL has been remade after all five starters left, including first-round OT Tyler Guyton. A bevy of portal additions at the position gives OU an acceptable 114 career starts returning, but that group needs to gel quickly.

The trenches are also the biggest question on the other side of the ball. As with the OL, Oklahoma is counting on multiple transfers to step in immediately and start. If the DL proves to be decent, this defense is going to be nasty. The LB corps and secondary are both amongst the best in the entire nation. Venables appears to have the back-half personnel to fully unleash his patented “replacer” blitzes that marked his time as Clemson’s DC.

  • Strength of Schedule: 6

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.3
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Oklahoma improved from 6-7 to 10-3 in HC Brent Venables’ second season, aided, in part, by a softer schedule. Things will be considerably tougher this time around. Oklahoma avoids Georgia but draws all the other SEC heavyweights in a gauntlet of a conference schedule. If there’s good news, it’s that Oklahoma scheduled itself a breezy non-conference schedule that it should go four-for-four in.

The market has taken a pessimistic stance on OU, setting this number at a highly reasonable 7.5. If we get that 4-0 OOC record, OU only needs to be .500 in the SEC to go over this total. That’s a reasonable expectation.

12. Missouri Tigers

  • Returning starters: 9 offense, 5 defense 
  • Returning production: 17 | Offense: 10 | Defense: 64  

Last year’s powerful offense (32.5 PPG) returns intact with two exceptions. A pair of former 1,000-yard RBs from the G5 – Marcus Carroll and Nate Noel – were tag-team portal additions to replace Cody Schroeder, and Missouri signed OG Cayden Green (five starts as a true frosh at Oklahoma) and OT Marcus Bryant (first-team All-AAC at SMU) to plug the holes of NFL Draft R4 pick OT Javon Foster and OG Xavier Delgado. QB1 Brady Cook returns, as does a sensational WR corps led by top-10 overall NFL Draft prospect Luther Burden.

Missouri hired former South Alabama DC Corey Batoon to replace DC Blake Baker (LSU). Unfortunately, the Tigers lost five starting defenders to the NFL Draft, three of whom were taken in the first two days. The defensive front and secondary both are likely to take steps back from last year. Batoon does have a strong, veteran-laden LB corps to work with. While Missouri’s offense could be even better in 2024, the defense is likely to take a step back.

  • Strength of Schedule: 61

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Missouri is a legitimate CFP contender, in part because of this schedule. It would be stunning if the Tigers didn’t go 4-0 in the OOC. And in SEC play, Missouri ducks Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas! 

The market, having taken account of all this, has bet this number to the correct number of 9.5. There is no value here.

13. Texas A&M Aggies

  • Returning starters: 9 offense, 9 defense
  • Returning production: 38 | Offense: 35 | Defense: 53

At his previous stop, new HC Mike Elko immediately turned around moribund Duke, going 16-9 over two years. Elko doesn’t need to perform miracles in College Station. He just has to get the team to play up to its talent level. 

Jimbo Fisher recruited at a high level – including the No. 1 class in 2022 – but went just 13-15 in his last 28 games. It would really help Elko’s Year 1 cause if QB1 Connor Weigman stayed healthy all year. Weigman is a Round 1 talent, with a big arm and solid athleticism in a sturdy frame. A&M has solid skill talent with great depth, but lacks star power following WR Evan Stewart’s defection to Oregon. The OL projects to be roughly SEC-average.

Elko, a former Texas A&M DC, excelled at Duke because he made good defenses out of average recruits. With the Aggies, he has far more talent to play with than ever before. Last year, A&M had the SEC’s best run defense and its best pass-rush. The loss of DT Walter Nolen to Ole Miss stung. But A&M is loaded on the interior and projects to start a pair of former top-10 overall recruits at their position. The addition of star Purdue DE Nic Scourton basically makes it a qualitative wash up front.

A&M plugged Day 2 NFL Draft pick LB Edgerrin Cooper’s spot in the lineup with former Pitt starter LB Solomon DeShields. That unit won’t be as good without Cooper, but it remains stout. The secondary could be a little better in 2024 after replacing a small handful of non-NFL Draft picks with four transfers who were full-time starters last season.

  • Strength of Schedule: 37

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

A&M hosts Notre Dame in the opener. The other three OOC games are cupcakes. The Aggies caught a break in SEC scheduling, ducking Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. All the road games are winnable – the toughest are Florida and Auburn – giving A&M a chance at a special season. If Weigman stays healthy for 12 games, we think the Aggies will make the 12-team CFP. We’re going over. 

16. Tennessee Volunteers

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 108 | Offense: 101 | Defense: 111

It’s a testament to how well HC Josh Heupel is doing that a 9-4 season was considered a down year. But Joe Milton’s limitations in the pocket capped the ceiling of the offense, which scored 14 PPG less than the year before (31.8 PPG). QB Nico Iamaleava will prove to be an immediate upgrade. RB Jaylen Wright is gone, but RB Dylan Sampson is experienced, and the Vols have a tremendous WR corps and an upper-echelon OL.

The defense has less returning experience, but the unit has a superstar in EDGE James Pearce Jr. Pearce is a potential No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Tennessee led the SEC in TFL last year and could again. The back seven replaces all seven starters from last year. Between portal additions and in-house prospects, the LB room looks strong.

The secondary, however, is a big question mark. Tennessee added a couple of DBs with starting experience from the G5. But the unit lacks sizzle in the starting lineup and doesn’t have proven depth behind it.

  • Strength of Schedule: 39

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 9
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

While the offense will be improved – think something in between the bonkers 2022 offense and last year’s disappointment – we think that might get offset by regression on defense. Unless the secondary is better than we think it’ll be, the path to 10 wins against this schedule appears treacherous.

27. Florida Gators

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 24 | Offense: 27 | Defense: 44  

HC Billy Napier enters a do-or-die season with the most unfortunate of circumstances – Florida is about to play one of the hardest CFB schedules I’ve ever seen. Napier’s OLs – such a strength at Louisiana – have let him down in Gainesville. That OL should be better in 2024, with five having started in the past and the depth improved. For whatever it’s worth, PFF thinks it’ll be much better, ranking it the No. 10 OL in the country. The rest of the offensive pieces are there – QB Graham Mertz is a solid starter, RB Montrell Johnson is a proven commodity, and the pass-catching core is strong.

Florida’s defense imploded down the stretch last year after a strong start to the season. The Gators have an enormous DL that averages over 300 pounds per starter, and there’s depth on the EDGE. The LB corps will be fine so long as LB Shemar James stays healthy this year. Last year’s run defense was the worst it had been in more than a decade – I think it’ll be improved.

The pass defense wasn’t much better last year. The Gators had one good CB (Jason Marshall), and a young, mistake-riddled safety corps that contributed to as many messes as it cleaned up. The Gators signed former five-star CB Cormani McClain in the portal and made a smart decision in adding sixth-year former Washington S Asa Turner to give the safety room a seasoned vet. He and Jordan Castell project to be a strong duo.

  • Strength of Schedule: 1

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 5.1
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Florida’s win total dropped from an opening of 5.5 to the current 4.5 number as the market responded aggressively to the ramifications of this gauntlet schedule. The Gators take on Florida State, Miami, and UCF in the non-con, and the SEC slate is a bear. The last five games are nightmare fuel: Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State.

All that said, this roster is better than people think, and it’s going to be much, much improved at OL and the secondary, two previous areas of pain. I have Florida as a top-25 team in talent, and I think they have a better chance to get to a bowl game than they’re being given credit for.

28. Auburn Tigers

  • Returning starters: 9 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 40 | Offense: 19 | Defense: 85  

Auburn immediately had a top-25 rushing attack under HC Hugh Freeze – with RB Jarquez Hunter and four starters returning on the OL, it’ll be just as good in 2024. The issue with last year’s offense was an impotent passing attack that in some games was cringe-worthy.

In a surprising move, Freeze didn’t sign a portal QB to step into the lineup. That means that last year’s QB1, Payton Thorne, needs to be much better in 2024. Freeze was hyper-aggressive beefing up the pass-catching corps for him this offseason, signing two five-star WR recruits, and signing immediate starters WRs Robert Lewis and Keandre Lambert-Smith.

While last year’s offense underwhelmed, the defense actually overachieved, ranking No. 41 in PPG allowed and No. 45 in total defense. While the pass defense was good, the run defense was mediocre. It should be better in 2024 with every projected starter in the front-six having started last year. New DC DJ Durkin has prioritized this area in camp. The secondary loses three starters from last year who all went late on Day 3 in April. I’d expect the run defense to be better, but the pass defense to be worse.

  • Strength of Schedule: 9

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 7.0
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Freeze’s decision not to upgrade at QB might end up coming back to bite the Tigers. If nothing else, it caps the ceiling of the 2024 offense. And with a good secondary now starting over, it’s hard to project overall defensive improvement even with the expectation of a better run defense.

This schedule is too tough to break through the 8-4 unless the passing attack is significantly better than I think it’ll be.

31. Kentucky Wildcats

  • Returning starters: 8 offense, 10 defense
  • Returning production: 14 | Offense: 41 | Defense: 14 

Kentucky has finished 7-6 in consecutive seasons. This year’s offense has a new look. OC Liam Coen returned to the NFL’s Rams, so Kentucky hired former Boise State OC Bush Hamdan. I haven’t been impressed with Hamdan’s work in the past. One thing he has going for him is a very strong OL.

The Wildcats have questions at the skills. QB Brock Vandagriff is a former top recruit who remains a mystery box after being stuck behind Carson Beck at Georgia. The new RB, Chip Trayanum, spent the past few years as an LB at Ohio State. The pass-catching group lacks a star.

While there are questions on offense, this defense could be awesome. It has a planet-sized mutant in the middle who is going to go in Round 1 in April, DT Deone Walker. Every projected starter on the DL and LB corps has previous starting experience, giving Kentucky a top-10 national front-six. The secondary loses Day 2 pick CB Andru Phillips but returns the other four starters.

  • Strength of Schedule: 8

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.3
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Vegas has set the correct number, here. If Vandagriff is good, Kentucky is going to top it. If Kentucky gets mediocre QB play this year, they’re going to be in jeopardy of missing a bowl game. There’s nothing to bet, here.

37. South Carolina Gamecocks

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 52 | Offense: 97 | Defense: 11  

This year’s offense is going to look much different. The Gamecocks have announced jumbo dual-threat QB LaNorris Sellers as the starter to replace Spencer Rattler. Last year’s offense had a mediocre ground attack, and the passing game was essentially Rattler forcing the ball to WR Xavier Leggette.

The ground game is significantly improved with the addition of RB Rocket Sanders and the added utility of Sellers’ legs. The overall WR corps also appears improved despite the loss of Leggette, with solid veteran starters Gage Larvadain and Jared Brown flanking freak athlete Nyck Harbor. The OL, which was horrible in 2022 before an injury-ravaged 2023, will be better in 2024.

Last year’s defense turned it around in November after the Gamecocks shifted to a 3-3-5 from a 4-2-5. This was done to help the run defense, and it worked. DC Clayton White said both alignments will be used in 2024. The DL is a bit undersized, but it's an active group that can get into the backfield and tip passes. LB Debo Williams is back after 113 tackles and eight TFL last year.

The secondary loses Day 3 pick CB Marcellas Dial but should avoid regression thanks to three returning starters and multiple plug-and-play portal additions.

  • Strength of Schedule: 18

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 5.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

The Gamecocks close with the annual rivalry game at Clemson – the rest of the OOC is filled with three cupcakes. South Carolina didn’t get a bad draw in SEC scheduling, avoiding Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee. In addition, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri must travel to Columbia.

This is an easier schedule than South Carolina played last year, and we think the talent has improved from last year’s 5-7 finish. But with 5-7 or 6-6 as the most likely outcomes, we’re too close to the margins to bet on this one.

48. Arkansas Razorbacks

  • Returning starters: 9 offense, 8 defense 
  • Returning production: 69 | Offense: 53 | Defense: 89  

HC Sam Pittman, in a last-ditch effort to save his job, made seismic changes to an offense that finished second-worst in the SEC last year. The most stunning of those was the hiring of OC Bobby Petrino, who returns to the program that once fired him as OC while embroiled in scandal. The new-look backfield pairs skyscraper dual-threat QB Taylen Green with RB Ja’Quinden Jackson. This team will be able to run. Will it be able to pass? Green has long struggled with accuracy, and Arkansas has an underwhelming set of pass-catchers surrounding him. An OL that regularly gave up pressure in 2023 may not be any better.

The defense showed saltiness at times in 2023 and is likely to improve this fall. The unit boasts a legitimate star in EDGE Landon Jackson, a potential Round 1 NFL prospect. While I like the defensive front, the LB corps is a question after Chris Paul (Ole Miss) and Jaheim Thomas (Wisconsin) left in the portal.

We don’t know exactly how the secondary will look, but it should be decent after Pittman’s aggression in the portal left the Hogs with seven DBs who have started in the past. 

  • Strength of Schedule: 24

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

The OOC should provide three wins with home games against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, UAB, and Louisiana Tech. My system sees the Mississippi State road trip as a true coin flip. That’s where the good news ends – in the other eight games, my system installs Arkansas as underdogs of at least 8.5 points. To get over this number, Arkansas needs to take care of business in the winnable games, and then spring an upset. We lean under. But with so much up in the air, we’re going to stay away.

61. Mississippi State Bulldogs

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 116 | Offense: 102 | Defense: 124  

Elevating DC Zach Arnett to full-time HC following Mike Leach’s death was a strange decision in the moment that quickly proved to be disastrous. Arnett made it 10 games before getting fired. New HC Jeff Lebby returns MSU to its offense-first roots. It may take some time for him to get things going, however.

QB Blake Shapen was a solid portal addition, but Shapen’s career has been mired with injuries, and there isn’t proven depth behind him. The RB room appears to be one of the SEC’s worst, and the WR corps isn’t scaring anyone. The OL replaces all five starters.

Last year’s defense sagged to 26.6 PPG allowed with only four starters returning. But that was playing with a slowed-down offense designed to protect it. This year, with a similar lack of production returning, but playing across from a high-tempo offense that could struggle, this defense might get left out to dry. Seven of the top eight tacklers are gone. The front seven could be legitimately problematic unless multiple players make leaps.

The secondary has far more experience, but it's more workerbee than difference-making, with no standouts.

  • Strength of Schedule: 4

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

The Bulldogs needed a talent infusion in the portal, and they didn’t really get it, finishing No. 45. Lebby did, however, sign a top-30 high school recruiting class. He appears to be building for the long haul, which sets up a true Year 0 proposition against a ludicrously tough schedule.

My system gives MSU a 10% chance or less of winning six games on this schedule. To get to five wins, MSU would need to go 4-0 in the OOC (my system projects 3.3) and then beat either Florida or Arkansas at home. The market was sufficiently pessimistic, giving us a number with no value.

94. Vanderbilt Commodores

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 57 | Offense: 72 | Defense: 32  

Vanderbilt has quietly put together a strong staff. New OC Tim Beck helped to turn around New Mexico State’s offense, and the architect of that program’s turnaround, Jerry Kill, was hired as chief consultant to the HC.

In addition, HC Clark Lea, previously one of the nation’s best DCs, announced that he will call defensive plays this year. Vanderbilt may not beat itself this year. But the issue remains the same – do they have the talent to beat anyone? Every SEC team had at least two players invited to the NFL Combine in the spring – except Vanderbilt, which had zero. The ‘Dores haven’t had a player draft since 2021.

Vandy appears to have analogous talent – or lack thereof – this year. The run game will be better with legitimate dual-threat QBs Diego Pavia and Nate Johnson competing for the job. But after losing their top-four pass-catchers, and in lieu of the limitations of Pavia and Johnson, the air could get sucked out of the ball when it’s in the air.

The OL is porous. On the other side of the ball, Vandy needs to turn around an abysmal pass defense. The run defense was marginally better but still bad. There simply isn’t enough talent on hand for Lea to get as aggressive as he wants to with the play sheet.

  • Strength of Schedule: 14

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 2.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 2.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Vanderbilt has win expectancies of 1% or less in seven games, and 14% or less in nine. Vandy will beat Alcorn State. But the Commodores also must beat both Georgia State on the road and Ball State at home to get over this number. That’s certainly possible. But with no margin for error, little faith in this roster, and the possibility of a mid-season HC firing, we’re going to stay on the sidelines.

More College Football Betting Previews for 2024