Ahead of the 2024 College Football season, I will be providing my college football best bets, organized by division. Not every team will have a bet that I am comfortable with for the season, and this will be noted.

To the left of each team name below, you will see a number. This is where the team ranks in my combined power rankings of the FBS and FCS. This is why some teams are ranked lower than 134, the number of teams in the FBS. 

My strength of schedule metrics below are out of those 134 teams in the FBS. While many use last year’s records – or projected 2024 records – for strength of schedule, my metrics stack schedules by the average strength of weekly opponents using my power ratings. This gives a more accurate gauge of the actual opponents being played. You can also access my full College Football Power Rankings for 2024.

The returning production numbers below come courtesy of ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

Below is my breakdown of the Sun Belt Conference for 2024.

53. Appalachian State Mountaineers

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 62 | Offense: 70  | Defense: 43

The Mountaineers have coaching continuity, a long track record of success, double-digit returning starters, and rank in the top half of the conference in returning production. All that would indicate double-digit wins are in play. I’m probably a bit more pessimistic about that possibility than most. Last year, QB Joey Aguilar threw for 3,757 yards and 33 TDs. But Aguilar finished No. 2 in the country in PFF turnover-worthy plays – he was amongst a small handful of FBS QBs with more TWPs than big-time throws.

Aguilar’s game exists on the razor’s edge. Last year, it mostly worked. But he’s going to need to tangibly improve to stave off the Regression Monster. If regression comes for Aguilar, the offense will regress, despite everything it has going for it. Keep in mind he’ll be playing behind an OL with four new starters – this is where Appy was hit the hardest this offseason – and with a weaker RB room than in the recent past. Defensively, Appy is strong in the front seven, but loses their top-two tacklers. The Mountaineers also have some questions in the secondary.

  • Strength of Schedule: 89
App State Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

The OOC slate includes road games at Clemson and ECU, as well as a home tilt with Liberty. The Mountaineers avoid Texas State but got a tough draw in SBC scheduling besides that, including a cross-division road game against Louisiana. If Aguilar improves, the OL doesn’t drop off, and the secondary sorts itself out, this is a dangerous team. If only one – or, gulp, zero – of those things happens, you’re going to see a step backward.

We’re too close to the margins to bet it either way.

64. Texas State Bobcats

  • Returning starters: 9 offense, 9 defense
  • Returning production: 51 | Offense: 55 | Defense: 46

Last year’s QB1, TJ Finley, transferred to WKU. But James Madison transfer QB Jordan McCloud, the 2023 Sun Belt Player of the Year, is an upgrade – roughly equivalent as a thrower, and a far better athlete. McCloud is also a perfect fit for this offense. He’s very efficient with the short stuff and a better deep thrower than he’s given credit for. This fits the TSU ethos. RB Ismail Mahdi is a star, and UTEP transfer RB Deion Hankins is a perfect thunderous compliment for Mahdi’s lightning. TSU turned the ball over too much last year – if McCloud can help with that, the offense could be even better in 2024. Scary thought.

TSU’s defense is strong up front. The pass rush should be upper-echelon again. Kinne prioritized adding a pair of projected starters at EDGE – former top recruit Tunmise Adeleye and FCS star Steven Parker – and the DT rotation is deep. The Bobcats’ secondary was rancid last year – opponents quickly returned fire if TSU’s pass rush didn’t get home quickly. The Bobcats are relying on transfers at both LB and in the secondary – the team’s ceiling may depend on whether they chose correctly in the portal.

  • Strength of Schedule: 115
Texas St Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.1
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

Texas State had not won more than four games since 2014 before last season. HC GJ Kinne immediately turned things around – the Bobcats went 8-5 – with a big-play offense and an uber-aggressive, havoc-creating defense. It was the football equivalent of a fast-break offense and full-court press defense.

This is the year things get really fun. Texas State’s improved roster plays a breezy schedule. Not only are we going over this number – you can get 8 at -140 juice if that suits you more – but we have tickets on TSU at +550 to win the SBC and +1600 to make the CFP.

69. James Madison Dukes

  • Returning starters: 4 offense, 3 defense
  • Returning production: 123 | Offense: 127 | Defense: 126

Former HC Curt Cignetti left for Indiana, taking all three coordinators with him. The Dukes subsequently lost a metric ton of production to graduation and the portal, including 2023 SBC PoY QB Jordan McCloud. JMU hired FCS Holy Cross HC Bob Chesney. 

Chesney has an impressive track record of success. But keeping JMU at recent performance levels – 19-5 since joining the FBS – is going to be difficult with so much attrition. Chesney restocked heavily through the portal. His new backfield pairs former Washington top recruit QB Dylan Morris with thousand-yard ex-UNT RB1 Ayo Adeyi. A bevy of FCS imports are also being counted on to take over big roles immediately. 

  • Strength of Schedule: 121
JMU Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 9.2
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

We got the bad news out of the way above. The good news? James Madison plays one of the easiest schedules in the country.

There’s only one P4 opponent on the schedule. Outside of that, the OOC slate is a breeze, and the Sun Belt schedule appears highly unmanageable. Chesney’s brand-new roster has a chance to pile up wins again – but only if it coalesces under a new staff very, very quickly.

72. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

  • Returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 15 | Offense: 30 | Defense: 26

Last year’s team finished 6-7 for a second-consecutive year. That was more bad luck with injuries than a sign of stagnation, including two season-ending injuries to quarterbacks. This year’s team is the conference’s most experienced, with depth that can be trusted. Last year’s offense averaged 32 PPG despite having to close out the season with QB3. This season, Louisiana has two starting-caliber SBC QBs in Chandler Fields and Ben Woolridge.

Louisiana’s 3-4 defense returns eight starters. The coaching staff did a good job in the offseason of augmenting the two-deep with portal additions. Camp competition will be more intense, and it will be easier to trust subbed-in rotational pieces. Expect the secondary in particular to be much-improved.

New DC Jim Salgado, a former NFL assistant, specializes in coaching secondaries, and the Ragin’ Cajuns only lost one DB from their two-deep over the offseason. Louisiana has also had top-10 special teams play the last two seasons and looks like it will again.

  • Strength of Schedule: 106
Texas St Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.5
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

This is an advantageous schedule for a school looking to take a leap forward. The OOC includes a home game against Tulane, a road trip to Wake Forest – both are potentially winnable – along with what should be two breezy wins. And outside of a road trip to Texas State, the SBC slate is what you would hope for, with the tougher games at home and a few patsies on the road.

We think the Cajuns are due for a mini-breakout.

80. Troy Trojans

  • Returning starters: 2 offense, 2 defense
  • Returning production: 129 | Offense: 121 | Defense: 129

The last couple of years, Troy was a top-3 G5 weekly watch. It was an offensive product that folded new-age concepts with old-school philosophies – spreading the field to thin boxes for a dynamic run game, taking advantage of number advantages on the outside when the defense wouldn’t comply – and a defensive product that overcame a lack of size with hair-on-fire defenders who were hyper-aggressive while staying true to their system responsibilities.

Pour one out for those Troy teams: This incarnation will have zero resemblance to it. Former HC Jon Sumrall took the Tulane job, RB Kimani Vidal and EDGE are now in the NFL, and a metric ton of additional production was lost to either graduation or the portal. There’s a brand-new staff in town. I was surprised by the HC Gerad Parker hiring. He’s got a tall task in year one with one of the nation’s five-least experienced teams. This Troy team is going to come nowhere close to the 12- and 11-wins we saw the past two years.

  • Strength of Schedule: 85
Troy Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.9
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Troy visits Memphis and Iowa in September – not ideal for an inexperienced roster playing under a new staff. Things settle down somewhat from there. But there are a small handful of tricky road trips on this schedule, as well as an early-October home game against hyper-tempo Texas State that is going to test the Trojans’ shaky depth.

88. Arkansas State Red Wolves

  • Returning starters: 10 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 47 | Offense: 23 | Defense: 84

After three consecutive seasons of four wins or less, Arkansas State broke through with a bowl appearance in a 6-7 season in 2023. HC Butch Jones signed the Sun Belt’s No. 2 recruiting class in 2022 and its No. 1 class in 2023. The real fun begins this year: 16 starters return, including 10 from an offense that showed considerable promise last year when QB Jaylen Raynor took over.

Raynor (sophomore) is the only projected starter on the team who is not either a junior or senior. He might have the conference’s best set of pass-catchers surrounding him. Last year’s defense allowed 30.4 PPG, the lowest of the last five seasons. It has a real shot to allow less than 30 PPG in 2024 for the first time since the 2010s. And not for nothing? ASU has had top-20 national special teams units all three of Jones’ seasons at ASU.

  • Strength of Schedule: 77
ARKANSAS ST SCHEDULE

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6.6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6
  • Thor’s Bet: Over

ASU has two paycheck roadies: at Michigan and Iowa State. The other 10 games are all winnable. This is the team that Butch Jones has been building towards, and the schedule sets up well for what looks like it should be Jones’ first winning season in Jonesboro. Arkansas State could be a surprise contender for the SBC crown.

95. South Alabama Jaguars

  • Returning starters: 4 offense, 3 defense 
  • Returning production: 114 | Offense: 110 | Defense: 112

Last year, South Alabama was an experienced, senior-led team overseen by one of the G5’s best HCs (Kane Wommack). Over the offseason, Wommack accepted the Alabama DC job, and the roster was gutted by graduations and portal defections. In 2024, South Alabama will be one of the nation’s least experienced teams.

The new HC is Major Applewhite. Last we saw of Applewhite as an HC, he was spiraling the vestiges of Tom Herman’s powerful Houston teams into abject mediocrity. On the positive side, Applewhite was the team’s OC for the past three years, providing continuity. 

But he’s going to have to prove he’s matured as a coach since his time with the Cougars – that was not a well-coached team, and Applewhite had a bizarre penchant for publicly displaying the control he was losing, including a screaming match on the sidelines of a nationally-televised game with star DT Ed Oliver. USA has strong athleticism for the conference, including a good WR corps and one of the SBC’s best secondaries. But the backfield is an open-ended question mark, and the defensive front seven looks like it’ll be starting six new defenders.

  • Strength of Schedule: 102
USA Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 5.8
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

South Alabama has only one scheduled paycheck loss (at LSU). But the OOC features a tricky roadie at Ohio, and USA did not get a good draw with the Sun Belt slate, pulling two of the East Division’s best teams (Appalachian State and Georgia Southern). This program’s two-year bowl streak could be in jeopardy.

99. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 105 | Offense: 106 | Defense: 104

Last year, Coastal went 8-5 in the first year of the post-Jamey Chadwell era. We’re about to find out how they do in the first year of the post-Grayson McCall era, and get a referendum on if HC Tim Beck is any good.

The roster has now been almost entirely remade since Chadwell left (66 new players on this year’s roster alone!). Beck’s biggest decision in camp is tabbing McCall’s replacement between returnee QB Ethan Vasko and ex-Michigan State QB Noah Kim. It’s imperative he get that right – last year’s offense scored its fewest points since 2018.

To be fair, Coastal’s offense only lost 20 YPG despite playing without McCall for six games. The issue was the Red Zone – Coastal finished No. 127 in RZ TD%. Can the offense gain as many yards and fix that issue with so much production lost? Last year’s defense was, essentially, the offense’s inverse. It slashed 8 PPG off its ledger from the season before despite coughing up 414 YPG. This was done by ranking tied-No. 11 with 1.8 turnovers forced per game, and tightening up in the Red Zone. If Coastal doesn’t button things down between the 20s, they’re going to need to be situationally stellar again to avoid a drop-off.

  • Strength of Schedule: 101
Coastal Carolina Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 6
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

If there’s one saving grace, it’s that Coastal has a highly manageable schedule. It includes only one P4 opponent – and that’s a winnable home game against Virginia. My concern is with the team itself. I do not trust Beck. And since this is entirely now his roster, with inexperience everywhere, on a team that existed on the razor’s edge last year, I see a fourth-straight year of a dropping win total at Coastal.

Our number is in line with Vegas’ current line.

100. Georgia Southern Eagles

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 8 defense
  • Returning production: 88 | Offense: 116 | Defense: 27

HC Clay Helton had made consecutive bowl games after taking over a triple-option team coming off a 3-9 season. That’s wildly impressive. In each of the last two years, Georgia Southern has finished 6-7. Year 3 might be the year for the breakthrough – if Helton and company can choose the correct quarterback to replace Davis Brin.

We’ve got a three-horse race between JC French, David Dallas, and Dexter Williams. It is imperative that whoever wins the job cut down on turnovers – the Eagles tied Nebraska for the most in the nation last year. It’ll help that GSU has one of the Sun Belt’s best collections of skill players. GSU goes three-deep at RB, and arguably seven-deep at WR.

Defensively, GSU has a game-wrecker in LB Marques Watson-Trent, an honorable mention All-American in 2023. GSU’s DL got pushed around last year, but all four starters return. The secondary returns three starters but is counting heavily on a pair of transfers at outside CB. With eight returning defensive starters and a legitimate star on that side of the ball, this will be Helton’s best defense at GSU.

  • Strength of Schedule: 80
Georgia Southern

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 5.5
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

Outside of a road trip to Mississippi, this is a very manageable schedule. GSU avoids the top teams in the West in cross-over play, and they get their three biggest competitors for the East crown all at home – Appy State, Marshall, and James Madison. This is a big year for the Helton regime. While we think there’s a decent shot at a third-straight bowl appearance, we’re going to pass with our number falling square on Vegas’.

107. Marshall Thundering Herd

  • Returning starters: 5 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 113 | Offense: 104 | Defense: 118

We have one core question to answer here: Was last year’s 6-7 faceplant – which featured a 2-7 nosedive in the last nine games – a one-off, or a blaring neon sign that the end is nigh for HC Charles Huff?

If the offseason has anything to say about it, odds suggest the latter. Huff, who went 16-10 his first two years, was unable to plug holes as quickly as they opened via the portal. The Herd’s biggest move in that regard was booting highly inconsistent QB Cam Fancher out the door and signing ex-Wake Forest QB Mitch Griffis to replace him, but Griffis promptly retired from football.

What that means is that either Cole Pennington – objectively worse than Fancher last year (0/6 TD/INT rate!) – or Tulsa transfer Braylon Braxton (banished to the bench early in 2023) will run the school’s Air Raid system under new OC Seth Doege.

Say what you want about Huff’s decision to shift from a run-dominant old-school system to a pass-happy one, but it’s hard to argue that Marshall’s personnel in 2024 is a fit for the latter. I do believe the defense will be salty – but will it be salty enough to overcome what could be an eyesore offense?

  • Strength of Schedule: 99
Marshall Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 5.4
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 6
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Marshall scheduled a pair of likely road losses against Ohio State and Virginia Tech – yes, I’m aware they upset the Hokies in Huntington last year – but have home games against an FCS team and Western Michigan in the other two OOCs.

A roster that has regressed with a staff on the headset is not a good combination to be facing an above-average SBC schedule.

113. Old Dominion Monarchs

  • Returning starters: 6 offense, 4 defense
  • Returning production: 93 | Offense: 83 | Defense: 101

ODU HC Ricky Rahne has made bowls in two of his last three seasons, but he’s also never finished with a winning record over four seasons. There are two decent options to choose from at QB (incumbent Grant Wilson or BC transfer Emmett Morehead), a couple of P4 transfers to platoon at RB, and a WR room that is deep if not star-studded. An OL that adds three transfer starters will need to coalesce quickly.

The defense has one abject superstar in LB Jason Henderson, who has more than 350 tackles and 34.5 TFL over the last two seasons! That is despite missing a game-and-a-half at the end of the 2023 season to a torn ACL.

Question 1: Will Henderson be ready for the start of the season?

Question 2: How much help is he going to get from the undersized, rag-tag group of defenders around him?

  • Strength of Schedule: 71
Old Dominion Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 3.5
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

This is a very difficult schedule with no freebies. If things start to go south, it could be Rahne’s last season. With Henderson’s health up in the air, we have to go under the number.

120. Georgia State Panthers

  1. Returning starters: 4 offense, 6 defense
  2. Returning production: 109 | Offense: 125 | Defense: 67

The 2023 Georgia State team that finished 7-6 had a delicious rushing offense led by bowling-ball RB Marcus Carroll and dual-threat QB Darren Granger. Both are now gone. So is the 2023 team’s best WR, Robert Lewis, and defender, LB Jontrey Hunter. So is the coaching staff – former HC Shawn Elliott surprisingly stepped down just before the opening of spring practices to accept the TE coach job at South Carolina. 

New HC Dell McGee hired a pair of veteran coordinators in OC Jim Chaney and DC Kevin Sherrer. Chaney’s system leans more towards the pass – GSU added QBs Christian Veilleux and Zach Gibson to duke it out for the starting gig behind an o-line that breaks in four new starters. Far more experience returns for Sherrer on defense. But that unit collapsed during a five-game losing streak to close out the 2023 season.

  • Strength of Schedule: 90

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 4.3
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

The timing of Elliott’s departure meant a truncated offseason for the new coaching staff. With an inexperienced roster and new systems to install, this was far from ideal. HC McGee did a decent job quickly plugging holes in the portal. But it would be surprising if he returns GSU to bowl season in his first campaign in lieu of circumstances.

GSU wasn’t done any favors by a scheduling quirk that has both byes out of the way by October 5 – meaning the Panthers will play eight-straight games to close the season. But with the market already having driven this win total down to an even “4”, we don’t see any value in making a bet.

127. Southern Miss Golden Eagles

  • Returning starters: 4 offense, 6 defense
  • Returning production: 119 | Offense: 128 | Defense: 81

HC Will Hall’s seat is getting toasty following the second 3-9 finish of his three-year run. Hall saved his job by winning two games last November, followed by an impressive recruiting/portal haul. Whether he saves his job again probably comes down to how well former Florida State QB Tate Rodemaker plays. Quarterback play has been a bugaboo for Hall at USM. It was too easy the past few years for opposing defenses to gang up on now-departed RB Frank Gore Jr.

Rodemaker has a good RB to work with in Dreke Clark, and the offensive line looks decent relative to the rest of the SBC. But Southern Miss has pass-catcher questions – it would really help if former Ole Miss top-recruit WR Larry Simmons emerged. And while Southern Miss’ secondary looks promising, and while there are pieces on the DL, an undersized, inexperienced LB corps is a big question mark.

  • Strength of Schedule: 91
Southern Miss Schedule

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 3.7
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Under

Southern Miss scheduled itself a loss out of the gate with a road trip to Kentucky. They should get that back the next week against an FCS opponent. But two OOC G5 landmines come next – USF and Jax State – and USM draws James Madison and Marshall from the East. We think this season will mark the end of Hall’s time in Hattiesburg.

157. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

  • Returning starters: 2 offense, 5 defense
  • Returning production: 133 | Offense: 133 | Defense: 125

The Warhawks fired HC Terry Bowden following 10 wins over three seasons. Bowden’s replacement is former UAB interim HC Bryan Vincent.

It was an uninspiring hire. Vincent bypassed for the permanent UAB HC job in the wake of Bill Clark’s retirement, is a long-time OC with an antiquated philosophy: Run the ball, drain the play clock. At talent-bereft ULM, left to his devices, you can bet that Vincent’s Warhawks will contend for the slowest-paced offense in the nation in 2024.

This strategy requires talent at RB, an OL that can generate a push, and a defense that can get stops. ULM RB Hunter Smith is one of seven returning starters. The bad news is that he’s only 181 pounds – not the big bruiser type that Vincent has built his run offenses around in the past. ULM only returns one starter along the OL.

The defense signed a potential difference-maker in JUCO All-American DT Jaden Hamlin, who’ll start next to ex-TCU and USC DT Earl Barquet. The pass defense that was wretched last year returns three starting CBs.

  • Strength of Schedule: 69

 

  • Thor’s Projected Win Total: 1.4
  • Las Vegas Win Total: 1.5
  • Thor’s Bet: Pass

This isn’t the kind of schedule that engenders hope for Year 1 success under Vincent.

It starts with two scheduled losses at Texas and Auburn. In Sun Belt play, ULM draws two upper-half opponents from the other side (Marshall and JMU). ULM’s hopes to go over their season win total may rest on starting 2-0 – beating FCS Jackson State, and then Vincent getting revenge by springing an upset against UAB

 If USM doesn’t start 2-0, it likely needs to win a home date against Southern Miss to get there. There’s very little margin for error, here. But with the win total so low, we don’t see any value in a bet.

More College Football Betting Previews for 2024