There’s no such thing as too much football. The NFL kicked things off on Thursday, but you don’t have to wait until Sunday to quench your football thirst again. There’s plenty of college football action to choose from, including a massive Saturday Week 2 slate.
We’re still in the early part of the season, which means there aren’t a ton of great matchups on the docket. There are only two games between ranked opponents, and most of the leagues are still going through the non-conference portion of their schedule.
That said, we still have plenty of opportunities to look for betting value. Let’s dive into five of my favorite wagers for this Saturday’s slate.
NC State (+8.0) vs. Notre Dame (-113, BetRivers)
Notre Dame has gotten off to a phenomenal start this season, having dispatched their first two opponents by a combined score of 98-6. Transfer Sam Hartman gives the team the best QB they’ve had in ages, and Notre Dame has averaged more than 200 rushing yards per game to start the year.
However, they’re going to face a stiff step up in competition in NC State.
NC State has won at least eight games in three straight seasons and five of their past six. They boast one of the best defenses in the ACC, and NC State even limited UCONN to 14 points and 273 yards in their first game of the season.
Aug 26, 2023; Dublin, IRL; Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Deion Colzie (0) celebrates with quarterback Sam Hartman (10) after a touchdown against the Navy Midshipmen at Aviva Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
While Sam Hartman will deservedly get the attention in this matchup, the Wolfpack has a sixth-year transfer QB of their own in Brennan Armstrong.
Armstrong didn’t have his best showing against UCONN, but he was a three-year starter at Virginia before transferring to NC State. He racked up elite seasons in 2020 and 2021, earning a Pro Football Focus grade of at least 90.3 in both years before regressing as a senior.
NC State also has a solid track record of covering the spread as large dogs in recent years, having posted a 4-1 record when getting at least a TD. This ultimately feels like too many points, so give me NC State +7.5.
Texas Tech (+6.5) vs. Oregon (-110, Caesars)
This number has sadly dipped from 7.0 to 6.5 at most books, but I still think that the Red Raiders provide some solid value in this matchup.
They dropped their first game of the season, losing a double-overtime thriller against Wyoming on the road. That said, Texas Tech was clearly the better squad. They outgained Wyoming by more than 100 yards and won the turnover battle, but it ultimately came down to a battle of two-point conversions, and Wyoming was able to convert theirs.
Oregon thoroughly cruised through their opening matchup, racking up a ridiculous 81 points and 729 total yards of offense. Of course, facing Portland State wasn’t exactly the toughest competition the Ducks will see all season. Oregon was favored by 48 points in that matchup, and this will be a completely different contest.
The Ducks have a good team, but they're far from a juggernaut.
Texas Tech won eight games in 2022 under first year head coach Joey McGuire, and they returned 17 starters from that squad, including all 11 starters on offense. They also added the fourth-best recruiting class in the Big 12 and the 28th-best class nationally. This squad is no longer a pushover, and there aren’t a ton of teams in college football who should be laying nearly a TD in Lubbock.
The sharps have been all over the Red Raiders in this spot, as they've gotten 55% of the spread bets on just 20% of the tickets. The public may be enamored with Oregon, but the smart money is on the home dog.
Miami (+4.5) vs. Texas A&M (-115, FanDuel)
If you’re new to college football, Texas A&M is basically the college equivalent of the Los Angeles Angels. They’re oozing with talent, yet it never seems to matter on the field.
They had the No. 1 recruiting class in the country in 2022, beating out blue bloods like Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and Texas. They also had a top-eight class in each of the three previous seasons, so plenty of good players have made their way to College Station.
Unfortunately, it just doesn’t seem to matter.
Somehow, the Aggies managed just five wins last season, and their last season with double-digit wins was all the way back in 2012. Playing in the SEC obviously doesn’t help, but this team is a perennial underachiever.
Will things change in 2023? They took care of business in Week 1 against New Mexico, but that wasn’t exactly a fair fight. They’ll have a much tougher go in Week 2 against Miami, who was equally impressive in their first game of the year.
Nov 26, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (9) attempts a pass against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
The Hurricanes are technically in Year 2 of a rebuild under new head coach Mario Cristobal, as they won just five games last year. That said, things weren’t nearly as bad as they looked on paper.
For starters, Miami was really unlucky from a fumble perspective last year, losing 13 of 15 fumbles while their opponents only lost eight of their 18 fumbles. That means that the Hurricanes only pounced on 10 of 31 total loose balls, which is well below the expected mark.
Like Texas A&M, Miami also has plenty of talent. They’re 12th in 247 Sports Composite Talent Index, which ranks the caliber of the recruits on the roster. This team is littered with former four and five-star prospects across the board.
Texas A&M managed to win this matchup by eight points last year, but it was played in Texas. This year’s edition will be in Miami, and I think the Hurricanes have seen more improvement heading into 2023. I like their chances of pulling off the upset.
Ball State (+42.5) at Georgia (-110, BetMGM)
It’s pretty much undisputed that Georgia is the best team in the country. They’ve won back-to-back National Championships, and they’re the top-ranked squad once again in 2023. In my power rankings, I have them as roughly seven points better than any other team in the country.
Betting against a wagon like that is scary, but 43.5 is a lot of points. They basically have to play a perfect game to cover a spread this high, and that’s easier said than done.
Case in point: Georgia failed to cover last week against a non-major school in Tennessee-Martin despite scoring 48 points. They started the game slowly on offense, racking up just seven points in the first 25 minutes, which put them behind the eight ball. They played much better over the final 35 minutes, but at that point, it was too steep of a hill to climb. Even a late pick-six by the defense wasn’t enough to cover.
This week, Georgia faces a slight uptick in competition against Ball State. While Ball State isn’t a particularly good program, they are an FBS squad. They should’ve covered last week against an underrated Kentucky squad, but a 30-yard TD run with six seconds left on the clock ultimately did them in.
I don’t think Ball State can win this game, and I don’t even think that it will be particularly close. But can they keep it within six TDs? Absolutely. If Georgia doesn’t play better than they did to start Week 1, this will be a closer game than most expect.
This is another game where the sharps are taking the points, with a whopping 88% of the spread dollars coming in on Ball State. Georgia knows that they’ll have to turn things on eventually, but don’t be surprised if they’re on cruise control for another week.
You can tail the spread on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up for a new account below!
Tulane (+7.5) vs. Ole Miss (-118, FanDuel)
This is one of the most enticing matchups of Week 2. Both of these squads are currently ranked just inside the top 25, and both fan bases have reasons for optimism in 2023.
Ole Miss is the more storied program, but Tulane is coming off one of the best seasons in school history. They won 12 games in 2022, including a thrilling Cotton Bowl win against USC. Caleb Williams played in that contest, so they went toe-to-toe with the best player in college football and managed to come out victorious. Tulane isn't going to be intimidated playing against an SEC power.
Sep 2, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt (7) reacts to making a first down against South Alabama Jaguars defensive lineman Jamie Sheriff (11) during the second half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Tulane did lose some of their skill-position players from last year, including running back Tyjae Spears, but they return a three-year starter at QB and four of their five starters on the offensive line. That's enough to win the AAC once again in 2023.
Ole Miss also isn’t exactly Georgia or Alabama. They’re a good football team, but they’re by no means unbeatable. They won just eight games in 2022, including a 17-point loss in their bowl game to Texas Tech.
Historically, underdog conferences have fared well when matched up with a Power Five school from an ATS perspective, at least when it comes to matchups between ranked squads.
They’re 12-11 ATS in those scenarios, so they can hold their own. Ultimately, I think that Ole Miss's ranking is bit overrated based on their reputation, and the Green Waves are being slightly underrated. I’ll take the points in New Orleans.
