Welcome to the new year! Thanks to the expanded 12-team playoff system, we are all blessed to squeeze just a little more nectar from the fruit that is college football. And thus here we are — presented with another glorious opportunity to not only enjoy competition at the highest level between the best the FBS has to offer… we get a chance to profit off it. 

And then there were four; Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, and Texas. Some of the bluest of blood in the game left to decide who will claim the title in a season full of parity. Two more games to dive into and dissect the various ways you can put plays together to add some extra chicken to your account. Let’s eat!

You can check out all the odds as they move here on Fantasy Life. 

Check Out the Spread!

Last week Alabama and Georgia made fools of us all and exposed a weakness in the SEC’s armor. I was facing a goose egg on my spread picks, but Buffalo saved me as they handled business in dominant fashion. 

Penn State +2.5 (-110 on DraftKings) vs Notre Dame 

Penn State has surprised me with their poise under pressure. James Franklin's teams have been known for losing the big time or high pressure games, but we cannot disregard the resilience they showed in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise State hit them with their best shot and they walked through it like a boxer facing an opponent with a weak jab. This game should be another knuckle fight against a team with an athletic quarterback who can make throws. 

Notre Dame will be formidable, although Penn State’s defense is not to the level of Georgia's. This Penn State offense is much better than whatever Georgia put on the field last week. This time the Nittany Lions are getting points — and in games that are this close on paper, the points always sways the decision. 

My pick: Penn State

Ohio State -6 (-110 on DraftKings) vs Texas

Ohio State has been the class of the expanded CFP so far. Chip Kelly has reminded people why he is one of the best offensive minds in football — they have talent everywhere and they get the ball to that talent in every possible way. The Buckeyes have two special talents at running back and two special receiving talents. The retooled offensive line gets better every outing and the defense is slapping opponents around like they owe them money. 

Texas has been surviving. That’s no shade, it's all you need to do in the playoffs. They will need to win this game, it will not be gifted to them. I don't know if they will be capable of winning without assistance from their opponent. Because the way this Buckeyes squad is playing does not suggest that they are willing to give anything. 

My pick: Ohio State

Line Steppers!

The “line steppers” were 3-0 last week as LSU, Penn State, and Ohio State’s games all cleared the total pretty easily. All three were carried by quality quarterback performances and you can expect that to be the catalyst for scoring, once again, in the semifinals. 

Penn State vs Notre Dame, Over 44.5 (-115 on DraftKings)

Don't be fooled by the quarterfinals; these two teams' games normally eclipse this total. There were so many points left on the board in the previous round of games these scores could have easily been in the mid 50's. Expect both teams to go into this game and execute better. 

Notre Dame is not playing UGA, one of the best defensive units in college football over the past half decade — that will certainly help. Penn State should avoid the bonehead moments that cost them touchdowns last week against Boise State — and even that game went over this total. In fact their games have gone over this number in their previous six contests. Strap in, ladies and gentlemen. This matchup should light up the scoreboard. 

Ohio State at Texas, Over 53.5 (-110 on Draftkings)

Ohio State has been scoring at an insane clip during the playoffs; they have been over 40 in their two playoff matchups. Texas has been almost as good, averaging 48.5 points during that time. Yes, the secondary for the Longhorns is good — but I can't see Texas slowing down this Ohio State offense. They are just too diverse and have too many ways to score quickly against their opponents. I can also see the Longhorns putting a few scores on the board themselves against the Buckeyes. If the gamescript sees one team jump out to a double digit lead, both will not hesitate to unload the entire clip. One will do so to keep the score close and the other will do it to keep the scores as separate as possible. However, if the Buckeyes come out and lay the smackdown like The Rock on a Thursday night back in Columbus, all that Texas will need to do is put up a couple harmless scores and the total flies over.

Prop-aloosa!

Jeremiah Smith WR, Ohio State, Over 5.5 Receptions vs Texas (-106 on FanDuel)

Jeremiah Smith is a freak of nature who has been imbued with the essence of Julio Jones — and because of how explosive the pieces are around him, defenders can't simply focus on stopping him. That is why he continues to shine. And he has been unleashed in the playoffs. Smith is averaging over six receptions per game in the postseason; the Buckeyes find multiple ways to get the ball into his hands. It can be quick throws, swing/screen passes, or deep shots. 50/50 balls are more like 70/30 or 80/20 with him. 

Emeka Egbuka WR, Ohio State Over 5.5 Receptions vs Texas (+125 on FanDuel)

Egbuka is a problem for all defenses. He, like Smith, has 70 receptions on the season for the Buckeyes. He is the receiver that Ohio State gets the ball to when they need to calm things down. Egbuka also takes advantage of the middle of the field better than a lot of receivers. So with all the attention that Texas will pay to stopping the run game, he will get plenty of targets. 

Egbuka has been dancing around this number but just under it in the team’s two playoff games. That is why he is getting plus money. Ultimately, the game script will call for him to get targeted enough to haul in six passes. 

Gunner Helm TE, Texas Over 3.5 Receptions vs Ohio State (-120 on FanDuel)

Helm has really stepped in to become the second leading receiver on this team. What makes him so effective as a pass receiver is his ability to block in the run game. It's hard for defenses to know when he is going out on a route or when he is blocking. In 15 games this season, Helm has gone over this number eight times. He has finished with three receptions another three times. Texas will need to get their rushing attack going and look for Helm to pick up a few easy passes off play action. 

Good luck everyone!