Last week was the debut of this column, and unfortunately, we didn’t have the best start. We went just 2-3, but things could’ve gone a lot better. That’s what I’m telling myself, at least.
One of our losses was with Tulane, who surprisingly ruled out their starting quarterback. The line quickly shot up by roughly six points, so I wrote that one off as a loser before kickoff. Still, the Green Waves actually led by seven heading into halftime, and they had a chance for a backdoor cover in the fourth quarter. Sadly, the backup quarterback fumbled, and Ole Miss returned it for a touchdown to put the game away.
I’m not convinced Tulane was the right side, but Texas Tech definitely was.
They led for nearly the entire game against Oregon, and they were down just one point with less than two minutes on the clock. As 6.5-point underdogs, we were looking very good for a cover.
Unfortunately, Bo Nix had other ideas and promptly tossed a pick-six to give the Ducks an eight-point win. We don’t have a Sheesh Report for college football, but that certainly would’ve qualified.
Regardless, it’s time to put Week 2 in the rearview mirror. We’re on to Week 3, and variance will hopefully be a bit more in our favor. Let’s dive into five of my favorite picks for this week’s slate of games.
Buffalo (+3.5) vs. Liberty (-110; DraftKings)
Small games like this are typically some of my favorites for betting purposes. Buffalo is coming off a horrendous loss in Week 2, losing outright to an FCS school as 22-point favorites. However, they did establish a 21-3 lead early in the second quarter, so it’s possible they let their guard down in a game they were expected to win.
Meanwhile, Liberty is off to a 2-0 start, and they picked up a win in their first-ever game as a member of Conference USA. The Flames have displayed an excellent rushing attack so far this season, ranking eighth nationally with 248.0 yards per game. They already have three players with at least 125 yards on the ground through the first two weeks, which has made life pretty easy for quarterback Kaidon Slater.
Buffalo has been gashed on the ground so far this season – they allowed more than 300 rushing yards against their only CFB opponent – so this seems like an elite matchup for the Flames on paper.
That said, it’s important to remember that we’re still dealing with small sample sizes. We’ve only seen two games from each squad, which isn’t nearly enough to make any definite conclusions.
People tend to overreact to wins and losses early in the season. Historically, teams that have lost their first two games are 129-116-4 ATS in Week 3. Against a team that is coming off a win the previous week, that figure improves to 73-56-1. That’s good for a return on investment of +10.1%.
The sharp bettors are flocking to Buffalo in this spot, with the Bulls receiving 63% of the dollars on 43% of the bets (via the Action Network). I like them at +3.0 or better.
Sep 2, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; South Alabama Jaguars quarterback Carter Bradley (2) hands the ball off to South Alabama Jaguars running back Kentrel Bullock (14) against the Tulane Green Wave during the first half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
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South Alabama (+7.5) at Oklahoma State (-115; FanDuel)
If you’re not familiar with South Alabama, you should get to know them quickly. They may be overshadowed by another football program in their state – more on them later – but they won 10 games for the first time in school history in 2022. Their only two losses in the regular season last year came against UCLA and Troy, who won those contests by a combined five points.
They’re not quite a nationally-ranked power, but this is a very good football team.
We haven’t really gotten to see South Alabama shine so far this season. They opened the year against Tulane, which is one of the best non-power-conference schools in the nation. They followed that up against a non-FBS school in Southeastern Louisiana.
This week, they’ll get their chance to prove their mettle against a Big 12 school in Oklahoma State.
South Alabama boasted one of the best run defenses in the country last year, ranking third nationally in yards per game allowed. They can be exploitable through the air at times, but OK State doesn’t seem like the team to do it. Heck, they don’t even know who their best quarterback is yet. They’ve played three different players at the position through the first two weeks, which is two more than ideal.
I personally have this game power rated well below the current number. You can still find +7.5 at FanDuel, but the +7.0 across the rest of the industry is perfectly acceptable as well.
Florida (+6.5) at Tennessee (-105; FanDuel)
Both of these programs will be turning things over to new quarterbacks this season. Anthony Richardson departed Florida for the Indianapolis Colts, while Hendon Hooker moved on from Tennessee to the Detroit Lions.
Tennessee has cruised to a 2-0 record out of the gates, but they’ve yet to really be tested. Facing Virginia and Austin Peay isn’t exactly the type of gauntlet they’ll have to run to survive the SEC.
Meanwhile, Florida dropped their first game of the year to Utah, but they more than held their own against a ranked opponent. They actually outgained the Utes by 76 yards but were done in by an interception and three turnovers on downs.
Aug 31, 2023; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Graham Mertz (15) works the line of scrimmage against the Utah Utes at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
Overall, Florida’s defense has been extremely impressive to start the year. After limiting Utah to 270 yards in Utah, they limited McNeese State to a paltry 112 yards in Week 2. McNeese State is obviously not in Florida’s weight class, but that’s still really impressive.
This is another game where my personal ratings are way out of line with the spread. I have this number below four, and the market has started to adjust. This number opened at Florida +7.5, but it’s down to 6.5 across most of the industry. It’s even gotten to six at some locations, so I’d lock this one in before it moves even further.
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New Mexico (-1.5) vs. New Mexico State (-110; BetMGM)
This pick comes down to fading New Mexico State. They’re 1-2 on the year, with their lone win coming against a non-major program in Western Illinois. They started the year by surrendering 41 points to UMASS – one of the worst teams in college football in 2022 – and followed that up with a 16-point loss to Liberty.
The Aggies’ offense is not capable of covering up their horrendous defense. They managed just 17 points against Liberty, mustering 339 yards of offense with three turnovers.
Add it all up – this is one of the worst teams in the entire FBS.
The real question is, is New Mexico any better? I guess we’ll find out this week. We’ve yet to see New Mexico in a fair fight. They were dropped by 42 points against Texas A&M, and they steamrolled Tennessee Tech by 46.
With New Mexico being at home, this line states that New Mexico State is the better team on a neutral field. I have a hard time believing that with what we’ve seen from the Aggies so far this season.
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Alabama (-32) at South Florida (-110; Wynn)
In case you missed it, last week was apparently the funeral for the Alabama football program.
The dynasty is over, Nick Saban is done, and this team might as well just pick up their ball and go home.
This program has been so dominant over the past decade that anything short of an undefeated season and a National Championship feels like a disappointment. Perhaps losing to someone like Georgia is acceptable, but Texas? Apparently, that’s too much for most people.
Forget the fact that Texas is one of the biggest schools in the country, plays in a state that is crazy about college football, and routinely gets one of the best recruiting classes. The public believes that they’re simply not supposed to be in Alabama’s weight class.
If you can’t tell, I think this is an awesome time to buy low on a pissed-off Nick Saban.
Maybe Alabama isn’t the most dominant team in college football anymore. That said, losing a close game to Texas is far from a travesty. I currently have Texas rated as the fourth-best team in the country, so the Alabama obituaries are premature.
I fully expect them to take out their frustrations on a South Florida team that finds itself in the wrong place at the wrong time. South Florida lost by 17 points to Western Kentucky, so Alabama can definitely win this game by five touchdowns or more. Roll Tide.
