We’re starting to get into the heart of college football season. For the most part, all the cupcake matchups against non-major schools are off the table. There are still some non-conference matchups to deal with, but most of the power conferences are starting to get into the meat of their schedule.
We’ve got massive conference matchups on tap in the Pac-12 and SEC this weekend, pitting ranked opponents against each other.
In other words, it’s time to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Let’s get into it.
Oregon (-20.5) vs. Colorado (-115; BetMGM)
Let’s not bury the lede here. All anyone can talk about right now is Colorado and head coach Deion Sanders. They’re 3-0, and coach Prime is garnering national media attention each week. Here’s the latest tidbit he dropped after a comeback win vs. Colorado State:
Coach Prime certainly doesn’t lack for self-confidence.
While there’s a good chance that Sanders can turn Colorado into a power – at least if he stays there for a while – they’re not quite there yet. Don’t forget that they took the field as three-touchdown favorites over Colorado State and needed double-overtime to eventually secure the victory.
Oregon Bo Nix leaves the field after the game against Hawaii in Eugene, Ore. Sept. 16, 2023.
They’re also going to be without arguably their best player in Travis Hunter this weekend. Hunter was the No. 1 player in his recruiting class, and he’s had an impact as a receiver and a defensive back for the Buffalos. Losing him impacts them on both sides of the ball.
The Buffalos will easily face their toughest test of the season this week vs. Oregon. As impressive as Colorado has been, Oregon has been better. They’re averaging 58.0 points per game, the second-highest mark in the nation. They’ve won at least 10 games in each of the previous two seasons, and they have a fifth-year senior at quarterback in Bo Nix.
The public is unsurprisingly all over Colorado in this spot, garnering 63% of the spread bets (per the Action Network). However, the sharps are laying the points with the Ducks. Oregon has received a whopping 74% of the dollars, which has forced this line up to 21 at most locations across the industry. You can still get 20.5 at BetMGM, but I don’t expect that figure to be around much longer.
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Cincinnati (+14.5) vs. Oklahoma (-110; Caesars)
Oklahoma is a college football blue blood, with seven national championships in school history. That said, they haven’t been particularly relevant of late. Their last title was back in 2000, and they haven’t made the expanded playoffs since 2019-20. After winning 11 games with Lincoln Riley 2021, they stumbled to just a 6-7 record with Brent Venables last season.
In his second season, things are off to a much better start for Venables. The Sooners have won their first three contests and are third in the nation in points per game. However, they’ve yet to really be tested. They started the season with a 73-point demolition of Arkansas State, and they’ve followed that up with wins over SMU and Tulsa. Cincinnati will represent their first matchup against a Power Five school, so this is where we’ll find out how good Oklahoma really is.
Last year, the run defense was an absolute abomination. The Sooners allowed more than 200 yards on the ground six times and lost all six of those games. When their opponent had less than 200 rushing yards, they were 6-1. Oklahoma has been much better in that department so far this season, but that was to be expected with their schedule.
Cincinnati is a matchup nightmare for the Sooners. They’re fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game, racking up an average of 244.5 yards through their first three contests. They had 216 rushing yards on the road in a win over Pittsburgh and followed that up with 278 rushing yards against Miami (OH). The Bearcats ultimately lost that game, but they outgained Miami by nearly 200 yards.
Historically, big home underdogs have fared well in Big 12 matchups. They’re 50-38-1 ATS when getting at least two touchdowns, including a 16-8 mark when facing Oklahoma.
Ultimately, I expect Cincinnati to continue to find success on the ground. If they can do that, this game should be closer than expected.
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UMASS (-3.5) vs. New Mexico (-105; FanDuel)
Fair warning – I don’t recommend watching this contest. These may be the two worst FBS schools in the nation: both teams are ranked in the bottom three in the Pro Football Focus power ratings. Massachusetts is 1-3 on the year, while New Mexico’s only win came against a non-major opponent. This one has the potential to be pretty ugly.
However, the sharps do see some betting value with the Minutemen. They’ve received 75% of the betting dollars on just 46% of the bets, which is a pretty significant discrepancy. That’s caused this number to move from the opener of -2.0 to -3.5.
Ironically, Massachusetts’ one win this season came on the road against New Mexico State. They played them back in Week 1 and hung 41 points on the scoreboard.
New Mexico faced that same squad in Week 3, and they ultimately lost by 10 points at home. I don’t want to read too much into two matchups vs. a single opponent, but that’s a stark contrast.
Now, New Mexico has to travel across the country to play a 3:30 p.m. ET game. That tends to favor the home team. EST schools are 85-69-2 when hosting a PST or MST school for an afternoon kickoff dating back to 2005.
Travel trends are overvalued when it comes to the NFL, but those are professional athletes. These are college kids. They can’t just spend the entire week prepping for an early start like they do in the pros. I would’ve preferred to get UMASS at a field goal or less, but -3.5 is still a solid enough number.
Ball State (+6.5) vs. Georgia Southern (-108; FanDuel)
Ball State and Georgia Southern are ultimately pretty similar schools. Both play in non-power conferences – Ball State is in the MAC, Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt – and they’re routinely .500 squads. Ball State has won between five and seven contests in four straight years, while Georgia Southern went 6-7 with a bowl game appearance in 2021. That was their first year under former USC coach Clay Helton.
Georgia Southern is off to a slightly better start this season, winning two games compared to Ball State’s one. That said, their two wins were against a non-major school and UAB. When they faced Wisconsin, they suffered a 21-point defeat.
Sep 16, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Georgia Southern Eagles head coach Clay Helton reacts to a call during the third quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
In other words, I don’t think Georgia Southern is a particularly good team. They’re not bad; they’re just kind of average.
With that in mind, why are they laying nearly a touchdown on the road against Ball State? I have these two teams ranked very similarly in my power ratings, so this number feels way off.
The sharps appear to agree, with Ball State securing 95% of the dollars on just 44% of the bets.
Ball State has faced a gauntlet of a schedule so far this season. They opened with games against Kentucky and Georgia – with both games on the road – so they’ve seen high-level competition. They’re not going to be intimidated by Georgia Southern, and they’re riding high after demolishing a non-major school in Week 3. I think they can win this game outright.
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Georgia Tech (+4.0) at Wake Forest (-110; Wynn)
Wake Forest has quietly turned into a solid CFB program. They’ve been ranked as high as No. 10 in the country in the AP Poll in back-to-back seasons, winning a total of 19 games. That includes two bowl wins, and they’re off to another 3-0 start in 2023.
That said, there are many reasons to believe this year’s version of Wake Forest isn’t as good.
For starters, they lost star quarterback Sam Hartman to Notre Dame in the transfer portal. That’s a massive loss. Hartman passed for at least 3,701 yards and 38 touchdowns in each of the previous two seasons, so Mitch Griffis has massive shoes to fill. He’s looked solid enough so far, but beating Elon, Vanderbilt, and Old Dominion isn’t exciting anyone.
Hartman isn’t the only player they have to replace, either. They lost their top receiver A.T. Perry to the NFL, while the offensive line lost three starters.
On the other side, Georgia Tech is just 1-2 to start the year, but both of their losses are defensible. They lost to a strong Ole Miss team on the road, and they lost a neutral site game to Louisville where they were leading by 15 points at halftime. Even though they collapsed in the second half, they were still good enough to cover the spread in that matchup.
I think Georgia Tech is good enough to win this game outright, so I’ll gladly take four points. This number is down to 3.5 at most locations, so I don’t expect +4.0 to be around much longer.
