It’s officially the most wonderful time of the year. Holiday festivities are right around the corner, the NFL playoffs are in sight, and college football bowl season gets underway this Saturday. There are six games to choose from on Saturday followed by one game each next Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. We will cover these 10 games in this article with the rest in next week's article.

The good news is that a lot of football is coming our way! Combined with upcoming NFL games, you can watch football pretty much every day from now until the end of the year.

The bad news is that betting on bowl games requires quite a bit of detective work. With players sitting out due to injury, entering the transfer portal, or to protect their draft stock, the team you see on the field for a bowl game might be completely different than the one you saw during the regular season.

I’m going to do my best to highlight the noteworthy news in the games that I’ve selected, but it’s possible that something could slip through the cracks. Let’s dive into my favorite bets for the first week of college football bowl season.

Jacksonville State -2.5 at UL Lafayette (-112, DraftKings)

One of the staples of bowl games in recent years has been wild line movement. As news of transfers and players sitting out begins to trickle in, lines can swing by more than a TD in some cases.

We’ve seen a bit of that with Jacksonville State and Louisiana Lafayette. J State opened as a slight underdog in this matchup before getting steamed up to 3.5-point favorites. However, there's been some buy-back on Lafayette since then, which has pushed the number back down to 2.5 points.

At the current line of 2.5 points, I think that J State is the correct side. This is Jacksonville State’s first year as an FBS school, and they massively exceeded expectations under head coach Rich Rodriguez. They won eight games in Conference USA, which earned them a trip to the New Orleans Bowl.

J State operates like a prototypical Rodriguez offense. They play quickly, averaging 21.2 seconds per play, and they love to run the football. In fact, J State ranks third nationally in rushing yards per game, having averaged more than 231 yards on the ground against FBS opponents in 2023.

Zion Webb

Jacksonville State's Zion Webb tries to evade the tackle of Western Kentucky's Davion Williams during college football action at Burgess-Snow Field Jacksonville State Stadium in Jacksonville, Alabama October 17, 2021. Photo Credit: Dave Hyatt / USA TODAY NETWORK

That could spell trouble for UL Lafayette, as they have struggled to defend against the run for most of the season. They rank 121st in rushing success rate on defense, and they’re near the bottom of the country in terms of defensive stuff rate.

The Ragin’ Cajuns also like to run the football, but J State has been much more successful at defending against the run. They were a top-five unit in defensive line yards and rushing success rate defensively, so they’re much better equipped to handle ULL’s ground game.

J State does have a few key defensive injuries, including edge rusher Jaylen Swain, but they’re otherwise in pretty good shape. The only player in the transfer portal is their kicker, and while that’s not ideal, it could be a lot worse. As long as you can get the Gamecocks at less than a field goal, I think that they’re the correct side.

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UCLA -4.0 at Boise State (-112, DraftKings)

The first game mentioned above was pretty tame as far as transfers and injuries go, but this game is absolutely wild. Both teams are dealing with some major absences that are going to have tremendous impacts in this matchup.

Let’s start with Boise State. They lost QB Taylen Green to the transfer portal, as he's already committed to Arkansas. Maddux Madsen was second on the team in pass attempts this season, and he’s out for the year with an injury.

That leaves the Broncos with two options at QB for this game: true freshman C.J. Tiller or walk-on Colt Fulton. Tiller appears the more likely starter, but a bowl game is far from an ideal circumstance to make his first career start. He was considered a three-star prospect and the No. 40 QB in his class per 247 Sports, so it's not as if Tiller carries high expectations.

Things aren’t much better for the Bruins. UCLA will be missing some key contributors in the secondary as well as QB Dante Moore and two assistant coaches. However, the biggest absence will be Laiatu Latu, as the Lombardi award winner has opted out to prepare for the 2024 NFL Draft. Latu had 13 sacks and 21.5 TFLs this season, so his absence will severely impact UCLA’s defense.

The one bit of good news for UCLA is that QB Ethan Garbers is expected to suit up after having suffered an injury late in the regular season. Garbers has been fairly solid, having averaged 7.7 adjusted yards per attempt with nine TDs to only three INTs on his 134 pass attempts this season.

With that in mind, I’m comfortable laying the points with UCLA in what's essentially a home game. The LA Bowl is being played at SoFi Stadium, which gives them a decided edge over their opponents from Idaho.

The Pac-12 was also extremely tough this season, so I think that UCLA is far more battle-tested team than Boise State. Eight of the schools in the Pac-12 ended up as bowl-eligible, whereas the Mountain West conference featured far less high-end competition.

South Florida +3.0 at Syracuse (-110, FanDuel)

South Florida is another team that theoretically should benefit from the location of their bowl game. The Boca Raton bowl will be played in…you guessed it, Boca Raton. I know that a lot of New Yorkers retire to the sunshine state, but I doubt that they’re the most intimidating presence at college football games. Regardless, one team has to travel by plane for this matchup while the other is basically right around the corner.

As for the game itself, Syracuse has had a lot of upheaval to contend with. They fired head coach Dino Babers after a disappointing start to the season, which left Nunzio Campanile as the interim head coach. Tommy DeVito has done wonders for the Italian football community of late, but Campanile is not exactly set up for success.

Nunzio Campanile

Nov 25, 2023; Syracuse, New York, USA; Syracuse Orange interim head coach Nunzio Campanile reacts to a defensive play against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the second half at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

From a motivation standpoint, Syracuse has to be disappointed to be playing in this bowl after having started the season with loftier expectations. On the other hand, South Florida is probably happy to be playing in any bowl game at all. They’re in the postseason for the first time in five years and had a preseason projected win total of just 4.5, so they should rightfully be fired up to be here.

The sharps seem to like USF in this matchup, having already driven the line down from 4.5 to 3.0 points. The Bulls have also received 69% of the dollars on just 40% of the bets, so it wouldn’t shock me if this number were to close at 2.5 prior to kickoff. That makes getting the +3.0 with the Bulls inherently valuable.

You can tail South Florida +3.0 on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $200 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!

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