Bowl season is officially in full swing. We’re off to a solid 2-0 start from the bowl bets in last week’s article, but now we’re getting into the heart of college bowl season. Last week’s action was merely an appetizer.

This article is going to focus on the games taking place between Saturday, December 23rd and Friday, December 29th. We have a whopping 22 games to choose from, including plenty of high-profile matchups. There are four contests on this slate between ranked opponents, including a top-10 clash between Ohio State and Missouri.

As a reminder, if you’re new to betting on bowl season, there are a lot of factors that can impact these games. In addition to the usual injuries to monitor, there are transfers and players opting out to prepare for the upcoming NFL Draft. In short, the team you see on the field for a bowl game might look completely different from the one you saw during the regular season, and I’ll walk through all the relevant information in the game breakdowns below.

With that said, let’s dive into my favorite bets for the upcoming slate of college bowl games.

Louisville -7.5 at USC (-110, DraftKings)

After what happened in the ACC Championship game, I don’t blame you if you want nothing to do with Louisville. They were an embarrassment against Florida State, and in particular, QB Jack Plummer. He completed just 38.9% of his passes for 111 yards and an INT in that game with a meager 1.8 adjusted yards per attempt. It was truly one of the worst QB performances I’ve ever seen.

That said, he faced an elite FSU defense in that game, and Plummer has been otherwise solid for most of the season. He should look much better against a USC defense that has allowed everyone and their mother to score against them.

That said, the big reason to back the Cardinals is that all the talent that will be on the sidelines for the Trojans. Superstar QB and potential No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, Caleb Williams, has already opted out, as have RB MarShawn Lloyd and WR Brenden Rice.

Caleb Williams

Oct 28, 2023; Berkeley, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws a pass against the California Golden Bears during the first quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

On top of all that, USC also has 11 players in the transfer portal, and offensive lineman Jarrett Kingston missed their last game with an injury and could miss this game as well. This Trojans team will be a much-depleted version of the squad that we saw in the regular season.

On the other side, Louisville only has four players in the transfer portal, so they’ll have most of their starters from the regular season playing in this game.

USC was only able to win games this season due to their offense, and without Williams, they’re not going to be nearly as potent. This line has crossed the key number of seven, but I still think that there’s value in betting on the Cardinals.

You can tail the Cardinals -7.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you place a $5 initial wager and get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars. Sign up below to learn more!

Oklahoma State +2.5 vs. Texas A&M (-112, DraftKings)

If USC is in rough shape at the moment, then Texas A&M is in absolute shambles. They fired head coach Jimbo Fischer, and offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino went back to Arkansas. Elijah Robinson will serve as the team’s interim head coach, but he’s already accepted a job to be Syracuse's defensive coordinator next year, so it’s fair to wonder if his head will really be in this game.

The Aggies also have 13 players currently in the transfer portal and four confirmed opt-outs. They could even have a few more opt-outs yet before the game starts, so their sideline could be less crowded than an afternoon show at your local movie theater.

Most importantly, one of the transfers for Texas A&M is QB Max Johnson, which will leave Jaylen Henderson starting in this game. Henderson played in just four games during the regular season after having spent the previous two seasons riding the pine at Fresno State, so he’s a pretty inexperienced QB.

In contrast, Oklahoma State only has three players in the transfer portal, and two of them each played less than 200 snaps this season. The Cowboys also have zero confirmed opt-outs at the time of writing, so their team will be at essentially full strength.

Unfortunately, we missed the best number with Oklahoma State, but getting them as underdogs at any number seems pretty appealing. I’m cool with grabbing the Cowboys at +2.5 or even playing the moneyline at plus odds if you want to roll the dice on an upset win.

Missouri +1.5 at Ohio State (-110, FanDuel)

Not all bowl games are created equally. For Missouri, earning the opportunity to play in the Cotton Bowl is pretty amazing. They entered the year with minimal expectations after having won six games or fewer in each of the previous four seasons. The Tigers having won 10 games in the SEC this year has to have the team and fans jacked up for a high-profile opportunity like the Cotton Bowl.

As for Ohio State, though? Not so much.

The Buckeyes had their eyes on a National Championship entering this season. They only lost one game, but that wasn’t good enough to get into the postseason in a year with a lot of undefeated and one-loss teams. This game is a consolation prize for Ohio State that they probably aren't particularly excited about.

You can feel the difference. Missouri has just one player in the portal, and he played on just 45 snaps this season. The Tigers should also be at close to full strength from an injury perspective with the possible exception of CB Ennis Rakestraw.

On the other hand, Ohio State lost starting QB Kyle McCord to the transfer portal, and they have a slew of high-profile players who could opt out. It’s not known yet if guys like Marvin Harrison Jr., J.T. Tuimoloau, or Michael Hall Jr. will be in the lineup, but I would be pretty surprised if they were to play in this game.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Nov 11, 2023; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) scores a touchdown as Michigan State Spartans defensive back Chance Rucker (25) defends during the first quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

With the likelihood of the Buckeyes missing a number of key starters from the regular season in this game, the line has already shifted dramatically since it opened.

The spread is already down from 6.5 points to just 1.5 points on FanDuel, but that being said, I still think that there’s value with that number. The Tigers are actually one-point favorites on PointsBet, so this number could continue to move in Missouri’s favor. I'd look to grab Missouri +1.5 ASAP.

You can tail Missouri +1.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $200 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!

Arizona -3.0 at Oklahoma (-110, Caesars)

Most of the bowl games I’ve highlighted above or last week have featured a glaring mismatch when it comes to the availability of starters. This game isn’t really an exception, but it's worth mentioning that I would’ve liked Arizona here even if both squads were at full strength.

The Wildcats were an excellent football team down the stretch in 2023. They won six straight games to close the season, including four against ranked opponents. And from an ATS perspective, Arizona was 10-2 this season, which made them one of the most profitable squads in all of FBS.

Arizona really took off when they went to QB Noah Fifita. He averaged 9.3 adjusted yards per attempt with 23 TDs to just five INTs this year and was one of the most efficient players in college football. The Wildcats will also have most of their key players in the lineup. Although they'll be without a top offensive lineman in Jordan Morgan with potentially one more opt-out per head coach Jedd Fisch, Arizona has only one player in the transfer portal, and he played less than 200 snaps this season.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma has 11 players in the portal, including starting QB Dillon Gabriel. They also have two offensive linemen who've opted out and lost their top WR to a season-ending injury earlier this season.

Overall, Arizona's roster is in way better shape for this game, and they’ve been extremely good to bettors all season. I expect the Wildcats to add to their strong 2023 ATS record this week against the Sooners.

You can lock in Arizona -3.0 at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up for a new account below!

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