It’s Conference Championship week, baby! It’s the last opportunity for the big boys to make a statement to the selection committee and earn a spot in the College Football Playoffs. And boy, do we have some big games on the docket this week.

The action gets underway with a pair of great matchups on Friday night, including a marquee Pac-12 showdown between Washington and Oregon, followed by eight games on Saturday.

Will the four main undefeated teams left in college football – Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State – secure their tickets to the postseason, or will a one-loss team crash the party? Let’s dive into my favorite bets for Conference Championship week.

Oregon -9.5 at Washington (-110, BetMGM)

Oregon is technically the road team in this matchup, but it’s a neutral-site game being played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Washington managed to get the better of Oregon during the regular season, but that game was played in Seattle. Without home-field advantage on Friday, can they get past the Ducks once again?

I don’t think so. Oregon has simply been the better team by virtually all metrics this season. They rank third nationally in points per game and ninth in points allowed per game. Washington has a potent offense of their own (ninth in points per game against FBS opponents), but their defense has been an issue, ranking merely 40th in points allowed per game this year.

And while the Huskies have “slumped” over the back half of their schedule, having won eight straight games by single digits, the Ducks have won by an average of 26 points per game since suffering their lone defeat. Oregon also has two resounding wins against top-15 opponents in Utah and Oregon State over this span.

Bo Nix

Nov 24, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) warms up before a game against the Oregon State Beavers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Bo Nix leads the Ducks, and he's been the best player in college football this season. Nix has just three “turnover-worthy” plays on 425 attempts this season per Pro Football Focus (PFF) while having thrown 37 TDs to just two INTs. He also leads the country in both completion percentage and passing yards, and Nix ranks third in adjusted yards per attempt.

Michael Penix Jr. has also been great for Washington, but his QB play has dipped as of late with rumors circulating that he’s been dealing with an injury.

It may seem weird to see an undefeated team getting nearly 10 points, especially against a team they beat earlier this season. However, there have been other examples of this in recent memory.

Alabama was +10.0 against Florida in the SEC Championship in 2008, and Notre Dame was +11.5 against Clemson in the ACC Championship in 2020. Both of those teams failed to cover fairly large spreads, and I think that Washington will meet a similar fate on Friday night.

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Louisville +3.0 at Florida State (-115, WynnBET)

I’ve been bearish on Louisville for most of the season, but they are undoubtedly in a good spot to secure an upset over Florida State on Saturday. The Cardinals are another “road team” that will actually be playing a neutral-site game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

Of course, the big reason to like Louisville is the injury to Jordan Travis. Florida State's star QB suffered a season-ending injury in the penultimate game of the regular season, which leaves Tate Rodemaker starting in his place, and Rodemaker hasn't shown much.

He completed less than 50% of his passes for just 134 yards last week at Florida, and Rodemaker lost 26 yards from sacks and tackles for loss. Overall, the Seminoles managed just 224 yards of total offense in that game against a 5-6 Gators team despite ultimately pulling off a comeback win.

I don’t think that Florida State will be quite as fortunate against Louisville. Even though I think that the Cardinals are overrated for a two-loss team, they’re still undoubtedly better than the Gators. Louisville is currently power rated as the No. 15 team per PFF (+17.2 points above average) while Florida is all the way down at No. 51 (+3.8).

Without Travis, Louisville may be a better overall team than Florida State. The sharps have driven this number down to 2.5 across the industry, but you can still find Louisville +3.0 at WynnBET. I would suggest grabbing that while you still can. If you can’t find a +3.0 before kickoff, taking the Cardinals at plus odds on the moneyline could also be a viable strategy.

Appalachian State +6.0 at Troy (-110, DraftKings)

I don’t blame you if the Sun Belt Conference Championship isn’t really on your radar. With so many big-name squads in action this week, this game could definitely slip through the cracks.

However, it's been a favorite target for the sharps this week. They love the Mountaineers catching six points on the road at Troy, and Appalachian State has received 82% of the dollars on just 60% of the bets thus far per the Action Network.

Unfortunately, that means the odds of this number getting to +7.0 are pretty slim. The line is actually moving in the other direction, and App State has dipped from +6.5 down to +6.0 at most locations. The line is even down to 5.5 points at some books.

Being on the road shouldn't be a major concern for the Mountaineers. No conference has seen home teams perform at a worse clip than the Sun Belt, as home teams have a dreadful 319-414-8 ATS record dating back to 2005. App State has also fared extremely well as an underdog. They’re 15-8-1 ATS as underdogs since joining the Sun Belt, including 7-4 ATS in conference matchups.

Joey Aguilar

Sep 23, 2023; Laramie, Wyoming, USA; Appalachian State Mountaineers quarterback Joey Aguilar (4) looks to throw against the Wyoming Cowboys during the third quarter at Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

The Mountaineers have been road underdogs in two conference matchups in 2023: at James Madison two weeks ago and at Georgia State the week prior. Not only did they cover in both spots, but they won both games outright, beating the previously undefeated JMU by three points and hammering Georgia State by 28 points.

App State will have to navigate a very tough Troy defense in this matchup, but I think that they’re up for the task. The Mountaineers' offense was a top-30 unit this season in yards per play under QB Joey Aguilar. He's averaged 9.1 adjusted yards per attempt with 33 TDs to just nine INTs this season, which gives the team the aerial complement they’ve been looking for to their outstanding ground game.

The Mountaineers' defense has also improved over the course of this year, culminating with a dominant showing in their upset victory over James Madison. Given their track record and the fact that they’ve already beaten an excellent JMU squad on the road, I think that App State can go into Troy and give the Trojans a run for their money.

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