The field continues to narrow. Oklahoma picked up their first loss of the season in Week 9, which left them merely ninth in the initial rankings for the College Football Playoffs. We still have four unbeaten teams atop the rankings in Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, and Florida State, and Washington currently occupies the No. 5 spot with a perfect 8-0 record.
The big Ohio State-Michigan contest is looming, but the big question is: will anyone slip up before then? If any of the current undefeated teams go down, there are plenty of one-loss squads that could find themselves right back in the championship picture (Oregon, Texas, and Alabama just to name a few).
Before we get to the playoffs, we have another strong docket of games to choose from in Week 10. Let’s dive into five of my favorite picks for Saturday’s slate.
Clemson +3.0 vs. Notre Dame (-105, BetMGM)
It's been a bizarre year for Clemson. They’ve been a perennial powerhouse for most of the past decade, and yet, they find themselves at just 4-4 in 2023. With games against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and South Carolina left on the docket, it’s possible that this team won't even qualify for a bowl game.
That’s a massive fall for Dabo Swinney and Co., but even so, the Tigers haven't been that bad this season. They’ve outgained their opponents in three of their four losses, but Clemson has suffered from terrible turnover luck and efficiency.
Oct 28, 2023; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack defensive end Davin Vann (1) bats a pass from Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) during the second half at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
The Tigers have had 10 fumbles in their eight games this season, and only Nebraska has had more. Fumbles are largely a fluky stat since it's hard to control how an odd, oblong-shaped ball bounces, and this makes Clemson a natural positive regression candidate.
Clemson also ranks 121st out of 130 FBS squads in red-zone scoring. Though they’ve converted only 70% of their red-zone trips into points, they’ve made 41 trips inside their opponents' 20-yard line in 2023. Only six other teams in college football have seen that many red-zone opportunities this season, and all six of them currently rank in the top-eight teams in points per game while Clemson ranks 81st.
The initial line on this game had Clemson listed as small home favorites, but their recent play has made them three-point home underdogs. We should see the best version of the 2023 Tigers in Week 10. I’m playing them at +3.0 up to -120.
You can tail the Tigers on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
Maryland +9.5 vs. Penn State (-110, WynnBET)
Another year, another typical Maryland season. They started the year 5-0, but then they faced their first real test against a Big 10 powerhouse in Ohio State. Maryland lost that game by 20 points, and they’ve since lost more games to Illinois and Northwestern.
At 5-3, the Terrapins' once-promising season now feels doomed to another mediocre finish. That said, I don’t think that this is the same subpar Maryland squad that we’ve seen in years past.
Their loss to the Buckeyes was actually closer than the final score indicated. Maryland shockingly had a seven-point lead in the third quarter, but they surrendered 27 unanswered points to end the game. Even so, they still would’ve managed to cover the spread if not for a meaningless field goal with two minutes left.
That loss against Ohio State undoubtedly resulted in a hangover, but the Terps have still managed to outgain their past two opponents despite having lost both contests. Those games could’ve gone either way, so I don’t think that Maryland has given up on the season. This week, they’re catching Penn State at the absolute perfect time.
Not only does Maryland get to face them at home, but Penn State has a massive matchup against Michigan looming next week. The Nittany Lions know that they need to win their upcoming match against the Wolverines to have any chance of sneaking into the playoffs, so don’t be surprised if they’re overlooking the Terps coming in on a three-game losing streak.
Penn State is a good squad, but they’re not nearly as good as Ohio State. If the Terps could hang with the Buckeyes in Columbus, they should be able to do it against a distracted Penn State squad at home.
The sharps are all over Maryland in this spot, which has driven the number down below 10 points. You can still find a +9.5 at WynnBET, but they’re +8.5 across most of the industry. Still, as long as you’re getting at least +8.0, I think they’re the right side.
Kansas State +4.5 at Texas (-110, FanDuel)
Texas is still alive in the CFB playoff race, but they suffered a big blow two weeks ago when Quinn Ewers went down with a shoulder injury. He’s currently listed as "week-to-week", so he’s not expected to suit up against Kansas State this week.
While fans would love to see Arch “heir-to-the-throne” Manning take the field, it’s Maalik Murphy’s show for the time being. Murphy was respectable in his first start against BYU last week, completing 64.0% of his passes for 170 yards, two TDs, and one INT. Still, he's a clear downgrade from Ewers, which makes the Longhorns vulnerable against the Wildcats coming to town.
Oct 28, 2023; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Maalik Murphy (6) throws a pass during the first half against the Brigham Young Cougars at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
Kansas State is 6-2, but they’re riding a three-game winning streak. They’ve started incorporating freshman Avery Johnson in the rotation at QB, and he gives their offense a different wrinkle.
Johnson has racked up at least 73 rushing yards in two of his past three games – including a five-TD performance against Texas Tech – and he’s averaged 10.6 adjusted yards per attempt as a passer.
When combined with Will Howard, the Wildcats have scored at least 38 points in three straight games. Ultimately, it wouldn't shock me if Kansas State is simply better than Texas without Ewers. Getting the Wildcats at better than +3.5 is a nice value.
You can tail Kansas State +4.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $200 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!
Army +18.5 at Air Force (-112, DraftKings)
Nothing says college football quite like a matchup between two service academies. And if you haven't been following too closely, Air Force actually enters this game with a perfect 8-0 record.
That said, it’s tough to determine just how good this team actually is. The Falcons have played a cupcake schedule thus far, with their seven FBS opponents currently boasting a combined 21-35 record. None of those matchups were against Power Five schools either, so Air Force has had one of the easiest schedules in all of college football.
Of course, Army isn't exactly a huge step up in competition from their prior opponents. Army is currently just 2-6 on the year, so this is another game where Air Force is expected to roll.
Still, when two service academy squads meet up, it’s wise to simply take the points. Air Force, Army, and Navy are three of the few remaining squads that still feature the triple option. While most opponents are not ready to face it, the service academy squads see it every single day at practice.
That’s why points tend to come at a premium in these matchups with the under at 44-10-1 in service academy matchups since 2005 per the Action Network.
While you could certainly look at the under in this spot, I’d rather just take the points with the underdog. Service academy underdogs of at least 14 points are 45-30-2 ATS dating back to 2005. Conversely, service academy favorites of at least 14 points are just 42-58-2 ATS over the same time frame.
In short, these academies tend to play close games against each other, so grabbing the points in matchups between them is tough to pass up.
You can tail the Black Knights on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you place a $5 initial wager and get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY. Sign up below to learn more!
New Mexico +10.5 vs. UNLV (-110; WynnBET)
This is a preferred matchup this week for the sharps, as New Mexico currently has 94% of the dollars on 69% of the bets. That’s driven this number down to +10.0 at most of the industry, but you can still find a +10.5 at WynnBET.
Either way, I think that the Lobos are still a fantastic target in this matchup.
Sep 2, 2023; College Station, Texas, USA; New Mexico Lobos quarterback Dylan Hopkins (10) throws the ball during the first quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports
New Mexico is a particularly good team, but they should be able to move the ball against UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels currently rank 125th in pass defense EPA, and the Lobos have some explosiveness to their offense.
The total on this game currently sits at 61 points, and New Mexico has scored at least 24 points in five straight games, and I think they should be able to get back to that mark against UNLV.
If they do, UNLV will need to score a lot of points to cover. While I expect the Runnin' Rebels to win this game, I don't think the margin will be quite that high.
