The end is near. We’re heading into Week 11 of the college football season, leaving us with just three more weeks of the regular season after this coming Saturday.
That said, there's still plenty left to be decided.
At the top of the rankings, five undefeated teams are currently battling for four playoff spots. Other squads are just fighting to earn bowl eligibility. Regardless, almost every team has something to play for.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite bets for Saturday.
Kentucky +11.0 vs. Alabama (-105, Caesars)
There’s been some buzz recently that Nick Saban and his squad can still make a trip to the CFB playoffs. That’s theoretically possible, but they’re going to need to play much better than they have for most of the season.
Alabama is coming off their best offensive game of the year against LSU last week, but LSU has been shredded by nearly every opponent in 2023. The Tigers allowed 45 points to Florida State, 55 to Ole Miss, and 39 to Missouri, so the Crimson Tide scoring 42 points last week wasn't exactly a difficult feat.
Jalen Milroe has all the tools to be a premier QB, but he’s not quite there yet with struggles with consistency, particularly when you can limit his effectiveness as a runner. Kentucky has been strong against the run all season, ranking 21st in rushing yards allowed per game and 20th in yards per carry allowed.
Nov 4, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) scrambles up the field against LSU Tigers linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. (4) during the second half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama Crimson Tide defeated the LSU Tigers 42-28. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Saban’s squads have also failed to cover in these types of spots as of late, as Alabama has been just 3-8 ATS when laying more than a TD on the road.
Overall, this is the most important game on Kentucky’s schedule, while Alabama is in a bit of a letdown spot. They’re coming off back-to-back huge wins against LSU and Tennessee, and they know that a matchup against Georgia is looming in the SEC championship game. Don’t be surprised if Alabama is a bit flat to start this contest.
Ultimately, 11 points feels like too many for a game-ready Kentucky squad.
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Wake Forest +2.5 vs. NC State (-110, FanDuel)
NC State has picked up some big wins in back-to-back weeks, having beaten Clemson by seven points and Miami by 14 points. That brings the Wolfpack to 6-3 on the year, so they’re almost guaranteed a bowl appearance at this point.
That said, both of their recent wins have been fluky.
Clemson outgained them by more than 160 yards, but NC State had a crucial pick-six and won the turnover battle 2-0. Miami outgained them by more than 60 yards but shot themselves in the foot with four turnovers.
Despite two wins, NC State is not a particularly good football team. They’ve just been fortunate as of late.
The Wolfpack is also going to have to make a change at QB after M.J. Morris made the decision to redshirt. There’s not a huge statistical difference between Morris and Brennan Armstrong, as Morris has averaged 5.6 adjusted yards per attempt compared to 5.0 for Armstrong. Still, Morris has started each of the past four games, so this will be an adjustment this week.
Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson has also been one of the best in the business at bouncing back from a loss. He’s 43-32 ATS the week after a loss, including 30-18 as an underdog in those scenarios.
This is the perfect time to sell high on NC State. I’m holding off to see if a +3.0 will pop somewhere, but I’d still take Wake Forest at +2.5 before kickoff regardless.
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Northwestern +10.5 at Wisconsin (-110, BetMGM)
I’m not a mathematician, but to cover a 10.5-point spread, I think it means that Wisconsin will need to score at least 11 points, and that’s far from a guarantee.
The Badgers are the epitome of classic Big 10 football. While most teams continue to veer more and more toward the passing game, Wisconsin treats the forward pass almost like an affront to the game of football. They’ve averaged less than 214 passing yards against FBS competition so far this year, which ranks 81st nationally.
Nov 4, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Brendan Sullivan (6) runs against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the second half at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the Badgers' offense leaves a lot to be desired. In their past five games, they’ve averaged only 15.8 points per game. It goes without saying that covering a double-digit spread will be tough if you can barely crack 20 points most weeks.
Northwestern isn’t a great team, but they’ve been competitive for the most part this season. The Wildcats only have two double-digit losses over their past eight games, on the road against Duke and at home against Penn State, and it's understandable given that both are far superior teams.
Realistically, Northwestern only needs a couple of scores to cover this number, and I think they can get the job done.
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Arizona -10.0 at Colorado (-105, Caesars)
What a fall from grace it’s been for Coach Prime. It’s not entirely his fault since expectations were raised after starting the season with two upset wins, but he certainly didn’t help by talking into every camera he could find. I still think Colorado will be good during his tenure, but that’s still at least a year away.
Meanwhile, Arizona is really good right now. They’ve been the best team in college football at covering the spread this season with an 8-1 record ATS. The Wildcats have rattled off three straight wins, all against ranked opponents, and two of their losses have come by a combined nine points to USC and Washington.
Arizona really started to spread their wings after switching to Noah Fifita at QB. The sophomore has racked up 14 TDs to just four INTs, and he’s averaged 8.6 adjusted yards per attempt. His 164.0 passer efficiency rating is also the 13th-best mark nationally.
On paper, this is a massive mismatch. Colorado ranks outside of the top 100 in success rate against both the run and the pass while Arizona is in the top 10 in both metrics offensively. The Wildcats should be able to hang 40 or more points on the Buffs pretty comfortably.
This game shouldn’t be close, so I don’t mind laying double digits on the road favorite. This number has increased steadily since it opened, but I still think that there’s plenty of value in taking Arizona -10.
Air Force -18.5 at Hawaii (-110; FanDuel)
Fading Air Force last week was basically free money. You simply do not lay double digits with a service academy when they’re playing another service academy.
They're basically the only three teams left in college football that run the triple option, so they’re all extremely familiar with how to defend it, generally resulting in low-scoring, competitive contests between them.
But Hawaii? I can definitely get behind the Falcons in this matchup.
Oct 28, 2023; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; Air Force Falcons quarterback Zac Larrier (9) hands off to Air Force Falcons fullback Emmanuel Michel (4) at Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports
Hawaii hasn’t seen a triple-option team in years, and they’ve had massive issues defending the run in general this season. The Rainbow Warriors rank just 108th nationally in rush yards allowed per game and 110th in yards per carry allowed.
Air Force is going to absolutely run wild against this defense, and Hawaii’s offense isn’t good enough to keep up, so this game has all the makings of a blowout.
We all love to have a little late-night action on Saturdays, as this game will kick off at 11pm ET. Air Force will be a great way to close out a (hopefully) profitable day of betting this coming Saturday.
