It’s rivalry week! The final week of the CFB regular season is loaded with big-time matchups, including the always eagerly anticipated game between Michigan and Ohio State.
For some squads, this will be the final chance they have to get that crucial sixth win and secure bowl eligibility. For others, it’ll be about building up their resume to get to a marquee postseason contest.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite bets for one of the best college football weeks of the year.
Florida +6.5 vs. Florida State (-105, FanDuel)
This matchup will be a battle between backup QBs. The big news is that Florida State lost star QB Jordan Travis, which now puts their spot in the CFB playoffs in jeopardy.
Even if the Seminoles win out, there’s a chance that the committee could still award the final spot to a one-loss team instead. If the goal is simply to have the best teams in the playoffs and not necessarily the most deserving, then I don't think FSU is good enough without Travis.
Florida also lost their starting QB last week with Graham Mertz going down against Missouri. That leaves Max Brown as the new man in Gainesville.
Florida Gators quarterback Max Brown (17) looks for a playcall during the second half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, October 7, 2023. Photo Credit: Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK
On paper, it’s a pretty big downgrade. Brown is a true freshman, and he wasn’t particularly regarded as a three-star recruit.
That said, he might be a more natural fit for Billy Napier’s offense. Napier has shown a preference for mobile QBs in the past, and Brown fits that description much more than Mertz did. Brown racked up 42 rushing yards on seven carries in relief of Mertz last week, and he was good enough as a passer going 4-5 for 56 yards.
Overall, I’m far more concerned about the drop off from Travis to Tate Rodemaker. He looked passable against North Alabama…but that was against North Alabama. Going into the Swamp to try and salvage his team’s undefeated season will be an entirely different beast.
This game is also very important for Florida since they need a win to be bowl-eligible, but I still think all the pressure lies with FSU. I’m holding out to see if this line gets back to seven before kickoff, but I’m going to have a play on the Gators regardless.
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TCU +10.5 at Oklahoma (-115, BetMGM)
TCU is obviously not the same team that made it to the National Championship game last season, having lost a ton of players from that squad this past offseason. Still, they’ve shown vast improvement in recent weeks.
Specifically, freshman QB Josh Hoover has made a big leap as of late. He’s passed over 300 yards in four of his last five games, and Hoover also had multiple TD passes in three of those. He’s coming off easily the best game of his career last week against Baylor, having completed 83% of his passes for 412 yards and two TDs with no INTs. Hoover also added another score on the ground, which gave the Horned Frogs a huge win over their in-state rivals.
The competition level will be raised in Week 13, but TCU has everything to play for in this spot. Another win would make them bowl-eligible while Oklahoma is basically locked into place at 9-2. The Sooners technically don’t even need to win this game to make the Big 12 Championship game, although it would obviously help their chances.
The only reason Oklahoma is in this place to begin with is that they haven’t played particularly well as of late. They lost back-to-back games to Kansas and Oklahoma State and then eked out close wins over Texas, UCF, and BYU.
Ultimately, this spread is giving the Sooners too much respect. I like the Horned Frogs to cover any double-digit spread.
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Nebraska -2.5 vs. Iowa (-110, Caesars)
Do you like defense? If so, then boy do I have just the game for you. The total on this disaster of a football game currently sits at just 26.5 points…Yes, you read that correctly. 26.5 points. It’s even down to 25.5 at some locations, so this game might be a battle for either team to even reach a double-digit score.
Iowa is somehow 9-2 this season, which means that they’ve already earned the right to get shellacked by either Ohio State or Michigan in the Big 10 championship. This game means absolutely nothing to them.
Nov 18, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Chubba Purdy (12) throws a pass during the third quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
On the other hand, it means absolutely everything to Nebraska. The Cornhuskers need this win to become bowl-eligible, and targeting five-win teams in the final week of the regular season has historically been a strong investment. They’ve gone 114-101-4 ATS since 2005, including 52-40-2 as favorites.
Given the massive motivational edge, I’m taking Nebraska at -2.5. Anything less than a field goal should be a strong play for them.
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Navy +18.5 at SMU (-115, BetMGM)
I don’t have a lot of “hard and fast” rules in my life, but one of them is this: always take service academy schools when getting at least two TDs. Navy, Army, and Air Force have combined for a 46-30-2 ATS record since 2006 as underdogs of at least 14 points. Navy is 17-7-1 in those spots, making them the fourth-most profitable team in all of college football in that scenario.
The reason for this logic is simple. Navy, Army, and Air Force are basically the only teams left that feature the triple-option. That makes preparing for them an absolute nightmare. It’s the type of system teams see maybe once a year, so opponents go up against it, they're not really sure how to combat it.
The service academies are often at a talent disadvantage, but their offense system also shortens the game drastically. They keep the clock moving, which then gives opponents fewer opportunities to assert their dominance.
Navy is 9-3 ATS against SMU since 2008, and they’ve covered in similar spots in back-to-back seasons. They covered as 12.5-point underdogs last year in Dallas, and they covered as 13-point dogs two years ago in Annapolis. Don’t be surprised when they cover yet again this week.
Oregon State +14.0 vs. Oregon (-108, DraftKings)
Oregon State disappointed last week, failing to get the job done against Washington. That said, they were undoubtedly the better team in that contest. They outgained Washington but lost due to sloppy turnovers, which was partly due to the weather. Overall, the Beavers exited that contest with a 70% win expectancy based purely on the numbers.
There’s always a chance that Oregon State could come out a bit flat this week following a loss that killed any chance of a big-time bowl game, but the fact that they’re playing their in-state rivals is a mitigating factor. There is zero chance that Oregon State doesn’t want to ruin Oregon’s season, which they could do with a win on Friday night. If Oregon doesn’t win this contest, they won’t make it to the Pac-12 Championship Game and will officially be out of the CFB playoffs.
Nov 18, 2023; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Oregon State Beavers running back Damien Martinez (6) runs the ball during the third quarter against the Washington Huskies at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports
This line also just doesn’t make much sense to me. Oregon State was favored at home against Washington, who beat Oregon earlier this season. Now they’re two-TD underdogs on the road? I do think that Oregon is better than Washington all things considered, but that’s a pretty massive difference.
From a matchup perspective, Oregon State should be able to move the ball on the ground. They’re third in rushing success rate and sixth in EPA per rush this season, and they have the No. 1 run blocking grade per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Oregon also ranks a lowly 73rd in defensive line yards, so the Beavers have a big edge in the trenches.
This number is down to 13.5 across most of the industry, but you can still find the Beavers +14.0 at DraftKings. As long as that number remains available, I think that Oregon State is the side to take.
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