It feels like it’s been a relatively quiet college football season outside of what's been happening in Colorado. There haven’t been many shakeups at the top of the rankings, but we’re starting to get into the heart of the conference schedules. We have a few more marquee matchups featuring ranked opponents in Week 5, so things should start to pick up soon.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite wagers for this Saturday’s slate.
Oregon (-27.5) at Stanford (-105; FanDuel)
All aboard the Dan Lanning express. After hearing his pregame speech before last week’s matchup vs. Colorado, I was ready to run through a damn wall:
You think they were tired of hearing about Deion Sanders? The Ducks absolutely “talked with their pads” against the Buffalos, winning 42-6 in a dominant fashion. Oregon probably could’ve scored even more points last week had they wanted to, but they took their foot off the gas a bit after having established a 35-point lead by halftime.
There's probably going to be a bit of an emotional letdown after last week. It’s only natural after a game that was clearly important to them, but fortunately, Oregon shouldn’t need to bring their A game against Stanford.
Stanford has historically been a Pac-12 powerhouse, but they're way down in 2023. They’re just 1-3 on the season, having losing to a non-major program in Sacramento State along the way. USC also blew out Stanford by 46 points earlier this season, and we could be looking at a similar showing this week against the Ducks.
From a pure talent perspective, Oregon is one of the best teams in the country. They’re 10th in 247 Sports composite talent index, which measures the caliber of recruits that each team has across their roster. Although Oregon hasn't lived up to that talent in recent years, Lanning seems like the guy to get this team across the finish line. I’m fine with playing the Ducks at anything less than four TDs.
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Eastern Michigan (+7.5) at Central Michigan (-110; BetMGM)
Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan will square off for the 101st time in 2023, the longest-running rivalry between two MAC schools. Central Michigan has been the superior squad throughout most of this rivalry, and the last time EMU was able to win in Mount Pleasant was all the way back in 2011.
I’m not sure if Eastern can win in 2023, but I do think that they can at least cover the spread.
EMU hasn’t brought much to the table offensively this season, but they can play some defense. They’ve held all four of their opponents thus far to 25 points or less, including a Big 10 opponent in Minnesota.
Sep 16, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Central Michigan Chippewas quarterback Jase Bauer (8) throws in the second quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
On the flip side, Central Michigan can put up points on offense, but they’ve had major issues on defense. CMU is currently allowing 36.0 points per game to opponents through four games, which ranks 122nd out of 133 schools. Even a non-major school in New Hampshire managed to hang 42 points on the scoreboard, and Central squeaked by with a three-point win in that matchup.
Ultimately, I don’t think Central Michigan’s offense is good enough to overcome their leaky defense. This game should be close pretty much throughout, so I’ll take my chances on Eastern Michigan at more than a TD.
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Ole Miss (+2.5) vs. LSU (-102; FanDuel)
One of the premier matchups this week will take place in Oxford with LSU heading to Mississippi in a battle of two ranked SEC squads. Both teams are off to a 3-1 start this season, and the only blemishes for either team have come against strong opponents.
LSU dropped their first game of the season to Florida State, while Ole Miss lost last week in Alabama. Alabama may not be the same powerhouse they’ve been in previous years, but there’s still no shame in losing in Tuscaloosa.
This number initially opened with LSU as 4.5-point favorites, but the sharps have since taken that line down to 2.5. That means there’s obviously less value now, and I don’t typically like to “chase steam.” Just because the sharps liked Ole Miss at 4.5 doesn’t mean that we should still bet them at 2.5. However, in this case, I do still think that Ole Miss is the correct side even at +2.5.
LSU’s record and ranking are both impressive, but they haven’t really lived up to the billing for most of the year. The Tigers won by just three points at home against Arkansas despite having been favored by 17.5 points. LSU was also a slight favorite against Florida State, but the Tigers ended up losing by a humiliating three TDs.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss has exceeded expectations thus far on the season. They covered as 17-point favorites against Georgia Tech, and they also beat a quality Tulane program in New Orleans. That win was a bit fluky since Tulane was without their starting QB, and a late defensive TD made the final margin more lopsided than the game actually was, but it was a good win nonetheless.
I have these teams graded pretty similarly in my power ratings, so I think getting the Rebels as home underdogs is a solid investment.
Auburn (+14.5) vs. Georgia (-110; FanDuel)
Is Georgia ever going to turn it on? The back-to-back defending National Champions have breezed through the early part of their schedule, but things are starting to heat up. The SEC is no joke, and they’ll get their first real test this week against Auburn.
Auburn isn’t an elite team, but they are more than good enough to catch the Bulldogs if they’re napping. And Georgia is 0-4 ATS for the year, so they’ve been napping quite a bit to start the season. That said, they’re still the best team in college football by a comfortable margin, so they could flip the switch at any moment, but I’m not entirely sure that'll be this week.
Auburn isn’t necessarily the type of matchup that will get their juices flowing. The Bulldogs have more high-profile matchups coming against teams like Kentucky next week, and they have a four-game stretch against currently ranked teams toward the end of the season. It seems like the second half of the year could be a more logical spot for the Bulldogs to start playing their best football.
Georgia quarterback Carson Beck (15) warms up before the start of a NCAA college football game against UAB in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023. Photo Credit: Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK
If Georgia doesn't give Auburn their full attention this week, especially in Auburn, this game could be much closer than most expect.
Auburn has a legit head coach in Hugh Freeze, and this team is significantly better than last year’s 5-7 squad. The offense remains a work in progress, but Auburn's defense has been able to keep opponents out of the end zone for most of the year. It’s more of a “bend but don’t break” defense than a dominant one, but that could be enough against a Georgia squad that has started games very slowly this season.
The Tigers will need to limit their mistakes on offense, as flags and turnovers have been issues at times this season, but I think that Auburn is good enough to keep this game competitive. The Bulldogs will likely assert their dominance after halftime, but at that point, it might not be enough to cover the spread.
This number is down to 14.0 at some locations, so make sure to lock in Auburn +14.5 while you still can.
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Memphis (-3.0) vs. Boise State (-105; DraftKings)
This is one of the more surprising lines for me this week. I have Memphis rated as roughly three points better than Boise State on a neutral field, so getting them at -3.0 at home is a solid bit of value.
Memphis has had an excellent start to their season. Their only loss came last week against Missouri, who is currently 4-0 and the No. 23 ranked team in the country. Their success likely won’t continue, as the Tigers are about to start a brutal conference schedule, but it’s hard to qualify losing to an SEC school on a neutral field a bad loss.
Meanwhile, Boise State has been pretty underwhelming this season. They were blown out by Washington in Week 1, and they suffered a two-point loss at home against UCF in Week 2. The Broncos followed that up with a win against a non-major opponent and another win in Week 4 against San Diego State, but asking them to go into Memphis and keep this game to a field goal might be a bit too much.
The sharps are all over the Tigers in this spot, as they've received 66% of the bets and 91% of the money per the Action Network. I think that Memphis should be able to win this game by a pretty comfortable margin, so I'll take them at -3.
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