We’re on to Week 6. It’s a bit of a smaller slate, as a handful of teams are on bye this week. However, the teams that are playing are getting into the meat of their conference schedules.
We have two marquee matchups on tap for Saturday, including one of the biggest rivalries in college football. Georgia will also face a stiff test against Kentucky, who is coming off a 19-point win against Florida in their previous contest.
Can either of these squads pull off the upset? Let’s dive into five of my favorite bets for the Week 6 Saturday slate.
Texas (-6.0) vs. Oklahoma (-110; Wynn)
The Red River Rivalry gets the day started on Saturday with a noon kickoff at a neutral site. The Sooners have had the edge in this series as of late, having won 16 of 24 matchups since 2000. That said, Texas has the edge overall, having posted a record of 63-50-5 all-time against their biggest rivals.
This will be the final time that these two teams meet as members of the Big 12, and the implications are massive. It’s the first time that both teams enter this matchup undefeated since 2011, and whoever secures a victory this week will go a long way toward punching a ticket to the CFB playoffs.
Both of these squads have been impressive to start the year. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has Oklahoma ranked sixth in overall grade compared to just 23rd for Texas, but the Longhorns arguably had the biggest win of the year thus far.
Texas defeated Alabama by 10 points in Tuscaloosa, and while the Crimson Tide might be down this season, they simply do not lose at home. Alabama has a 103-9 record under Nick Saban at Bryant-Denny Stadium, and Texas handed them their first double-digit home loss in nearly two decades:
Oklahoma has certainly looked the part this season, ranking in the top five in both points scored and points allowed per game. However, the Sooners have also faced a cupcake schedule, having steamrolled their way through Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Iowa State. None of those teams is anywhere remotely close to being in the same weight class as Texas.
The sharps like the idea of laying the points with Texas in this spot, and favorites have a good track record of covering the spread in games between ranked teams. Home teams and neutral-site favorites have historically gone 282-209-9 ATS in ranked matchups since 2005. I’m happy to lay the points with Texas at anything less than a TD.
Arizona State (+4.5) vs. Colorado (-110; DraftKings)
After having had to a run a gauntlet the past two weeks against Oregon and USC, Colorado can finally take a breather against a slumping Arizona State squad. ASU is merely 1-4 on the year, with their only win coming in Week 1 against a non-major opponent.
With that in mind, it’s time for Deion Sanders and the Buffalos to get back on track, right? In the words of the legendary Lee Corso – Not so fast, my friends!
Sep 2, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Jaylon Robinson (13) cannot catch a pass while defended by Colorado Buffaloes cornerback Travis Hunter (12) in the second quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
The Sun Devils have been decimated by injuries of late, but it’s possible that they could get some reinforcements for Saturday’s matchup against Colorado. Meanwhile, Colorado’s star two-way player Travis Hunter remains a few weeks away from a return.
More importantly, the bloom is clearly off the rose when it comes to Coach Prime. Colorado started the year strong with wins against TCU and Nebraska, but neither of those wins looks as impressive in retrospect. They followed that up with a way-too-close-for-comfort victory over Colorado State and two disastrous performances against Oregon and USC. I know the final margin against USC wasn’t all that bad, but USC clearly took their foot off the gas after going up 41-14.
Personally, I don’t see a massive gulf in talent between these two teams. The only difference is that the public loves one of them. That’s creating some value with the home dog, particularly if they get back some of their injured players.
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Georgia (-14.5) vs. Kentucky (-105; FanDuel)
If you’re a fan of college football or sports betting and reading this column, I think it's a pretty safe assumption that you’re aware of Georgia’s struggles this season. They’re a perfect 5-0 overall, but they’re still winless against the spread.
That’s not just rare in college football. It’s basically unheard of.
Georgia is just the second team since 2005 to go undefeated without a cover through their first five games. The only other team to do so was Michigan, who kept the streak going with a straight-up but failed to cover against Rutgers in 2015.
It’s tempting to say that this Georgia team is a “disappointment,” but I don’t agree with that assessment. I still have them rated as the best team in college football by a pretty wide margin.
With that in mind, this feels like the perfect opportunity to buy low on the Dawgs. The advance spread on this game had Georgia at -23.5, so the line has decreased by nearly 10 points since then. That’s despite the fact that Georgia is starting to get healthier. They had three starters return to action last week against Auburn, and Ladd McConkey suited up for the first time all season. He was second to Brock Powers in receptions against the Tigers, so McConkey is a huge addition to the offense.
You can make a strong case that -23.5 was too many points against a Kentucky squad with massive big-play potential. That said, Georgia deserves to be a bigger favorite than just 14.5 points at home. This is a great opportunity to buy low on the best team in the country.
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Ohio State (-19.0) vs. Maryland (-110; Wynn)
I don’t normally bet on big favorites, let alone two in the same week. That said, big favorites are typically overvalued since the public loves to bet on them.
That’s not the case this week.
Georgia has received 20% of the spread bets against Kentucky per the Action Network while Ohio State has received just 21%. Both teams have a higher percentage of spread dollars than spread bets, which is an indicator that the sharps are backing the favorites. In other words, while the public is zigging to trendy underdogs, the professionals are laying the points with the superior squads.
Sep 30, 2023; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3) throws as offensive lineman Delmar Glaze (74) blocks during the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Maryland is off to a prototypical Maryland start. They tend to start the year getting fat against a soft non-conference schedule, and they’ve won their first two conference games this season as well. However, wins over a down Michigan State team and at home against Indiana aren’t exactly impressive.
Now, they’ll have to take on the class of the conference in Ohio, and Maryland has historically failed these types of tests. Maryland was 2-1 in 2019 before suffering a 59-point defeat to Penn State, and they finished that season just 3-9.
In 2021, they were 4-0 before getting thumped by Iowa. Maryland kept things closer last year against Michigan, but that game was played at home. Overall, they’ve been unable to get over the hump when it comes to Big 10 competition.
Expect more of the same in 2023. This number is trending upwards, but you can still find Ohio State -19.0 at Wynn.
Arkansas State (+16.5) at Troy (-105; FanDuel)
This might be my favorite matchup of the week. Troy is the defending conference champion in the Sun Belt, and Arkansas State is looking to prove they’re for real.
ASU started the year 0-2, which included a humiliating 73-point loss to Oklahoma. However, they made a QB change heading into Week 3 and haven’t lost since with Jaylen Raynor providing some of the best production in the country. He’s tossed 10 TDs to just one INT with a 239.0 Quarterback Rating and added 189 yards and two scores on the ground. If Raynor played in a major conference, we’d be talking about him as a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate.
This will easily be ASU’s toughest test with Raynor at QB, and their defense is going to surrender plenty of points against Troy. That said, I think they can manage enough scoring of their own to cover the 16.5-point spread.
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