The college football season is nearly at the halfway point of the regular season, and we’re still looking to sort the contenders from the pretenders. The top eight teams in the top-25 are all undefeated, and there are some other undefeated squads sprinkled throughout the rest of the rankings as well.
Fortunately, we’re going to start getting some answers soon.
Last week featured a matchup between two undefeated Big 12 squads, and this week, the Pac 12 takes center stage. Oregon and Washington will square off in an undefeated showdown, and whoever wins that matchup will boost their chances of reaching the CFB playoffs.
While that game might be the marquee matchup of the week, there are plenty of other opportunities to look for value in the betting market. Let’s dive into five of my favorite bets for Saturday’s college football slate.
Memphis +4.5 vs. Tulane (-108; FanDuel)
This is one of the biggest matchups of the week in terms of the non-power conferences. Memphis and Tulane both enter this contest at 4-1, putting them in a tie for first place in the AAC.
Tulane entered the year with greater expectations. The Green Wave were the No. 24 team in the country, and they’ve largely lived up to the hype. Their only loss this season is to Ole Miss, and they played that game without their starting QB.
Memphis' Blake Watson (4) runs in for a touchdown during the game between the University of Memphis and Bethune-Cookman University in Memphis, Tenn., on Saturday, September 2, 2023. Photo Credit: Chris Day/The Commercial Appeal / USA TODAY NETWORK
However, Memphis has arguably been the better team. The Tigers are averaging more yards per game, and they’re 18th nationally in points per game. Seth Hannigan has played well in his third year as the team’s starting QB, and RB Blake Watson is averaging 137.6 scrimmage yards per game.
Ultimately, Memphis has been a serious riser in my power ratings. I still have Tulane rated as the better team, but after factoring in home field advantage, this is too many points. The sharps have been all over Memphis in this spot, as the Tigers have received 90% of the dollars on 61% of the bets per the Action Network, and I agree.
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Illinois +14.0 at Maryland (-110; BetMGM)
Maryland entered last week’s showdown with undefeated Ohio State at 5-0, and they ultimately kept things competitive in the first half. The Terrapins were tied 10-10 at the start of the second half, but the Buckeyes ultimately asserted their dominance and pulled away for a 20-point victory.
Maryland gets a much easier matchup this week at home against Illinois, but I still think they’re overvalued based off their hot start. Their five wins to start the year were against lackluster competition, so I’m not convinced that they’re a particularly good team.
The Illini may not be a great squad, but they’re not a pushover, either. They lost by just 11 points to Kansas on the road, and they managed to hang tough against Nebraska as well.
Large underdogs haven’t historically fared well in Big 10 matchups, but most of them involve teams like Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State. If you remove those three teams from the equation, underdogs of at least two TDs are 70-68-6 ATS dating back to 2005. That’s not a particularly strong trend, but when combined with Maryland being a bit overvalued, it points to Illinois +14.0 as a strong option.
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Oklahoma State +3.5 vs. Kansas (-122; FanDuel)
I ultimately view Kansas similarly to how I view Maryland. They have an elite record at 5-1, but most of their wins have come against inferior competition. The Jayhawks failed their only real test this season miserably, suffering a 26-point loss to Texas.
Kansas is still getting plenty of love – they enter this matchup ranked No. 23 nationally – but I’m not convinced that they deserve it. This current line suggests that they’re significantly better than Oklahoma State on a neutral field, and I don’t agree with that assessment.
The Cowboys don’t have the same quality record as Kansas, but they have a strong track record under head coach Mike Gundy. Oklahoma State has finished with a winning record in 17 straight seasons, and they’ve amassed double-digit wins in seven of them. In other words, the coaching staff is used to playing in big games.
Oklahoma State's Gunnar Gundy (12) throws a pass in warmups before the college football game between the Oklahoma State University Cowboys and the Kansas State Wildcats at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater. Okla., Friday, Oct. 6, 2023. Photo Credit: SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK
This is a new phenomenon for Kansas. The last time they were relevant was all the way back in 2007, and they’ve already nearly matched their win total from last season.
Oklahoma State has also been a wildly profitable squad for bettors since 2005. They’re 120-92-0 ATS over that time frame, making them the third-most profitable team in that stretch. The players may be different, but Gundy & Co. simply know how to cover the spread.
This number is down to 3.0 at most locations, but there’s still a 3.5 available at FanDuel. That number is heavily juiced, but with three being the most important number in football betting, I’m willing to pay a premium for the +3.5.
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Michigan -33.0 vs. Indiana (-110; DraftKings)
Michigan is currently the No. 2 team in the country, and they have absolutely dominated so far this season. They’ve been a juggernaut defensively, allowing 10 points or fewer in all six games.
Unlike a lot of teams, the Wolverines have actually increased their dominance since conference play started. They’ve won their three Big 10 matchups by an aggregate score of 128-24, and while they’ve yet to face any of the true conference powers, Indiana doesn’t represent a huge step up in weight class. The Hoosiers lost by 27 points to Maryland, and Michigan is a far superior squad.
Ultimately, Michigan feels very similarly to how Georgia and Ohio State felt last week: an elite team that isn’t getting enough respect from the public. Michigan has received just 29% of the spread bets, making Indiana a very public dog. Any time the public doesn’t want anything to do with a big favorite, you should consider going in the other direction.
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Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Louisville (-110; Caesars)
The theme of this week’s column is fading overvalued teams with inflated records. Louisville is yet another team who fits that mold. They’re 6-0 on the year, but most of those wins were fairly unimpressive. Last week’s win over Notre Dame was excellent, but that came at home. This week’s matchup against Pittsburgh will come on the road.
Pittsburgh has just one win this season, and it came against a non-major opponent in Week 1. Against FBS competition, they’re 0-4, and they’ve lost each of their past three games by double digits.
Pittsburgh Panthers Phil Jurkovec prepares to fire the ball downfield while looking for an open receiver during the first half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA on September 23, 2023. Photo Credit: Michael Longo/For USA Today Network / USA TODAY NETWORK
That said, the Panthers have historically been a solid squad under Pat Narduzzi. They’ve won at least nine games in back-to-back seasons, and they’ve won at least eight games in five of the past eight seasons.
Unsurprisingly, Pittsburgh has a pretty strong track record as underdogs. They’re 40-37-5 ATS as an underdog dating back to 2005, including a 29-26-2 record in conference games.
This is another game where the sharps are seeing a ton of value with the underdog. Pittsburgh has received more than 90% of the spread dollars, which has driven this number from 8.5 down to 7.5. As long as we’re still getting the key number of seven, I think Pittsburgh remains the correct side.
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