We’re on to Week 8 of the college football season, and we’ll get one of the biggest matchups of the year on Saturday. Penn State will travel to Ohio State to take on the Buckeyes, pitting two undefeated top-seven teams against each other.
The rest of the games aren’t quite as appealing, but there are still some big showdowns on the docket. Florida State will face a test against 16th-ranked Duke, and USC will look to rebound from a disappointing loss to 14th-ranked Utah last week. We also have our weekly ranked showdown in the SEC with Alabama hosting the 5-1 Tennessee Volunteers.
Let’s dive into my favorite bets for Saturday’s college football slate.
Penn State +4.5 at Ohio State (-110; BetMGM)
The marquee matchup of this week's slate of games will kick off at noon eastern, and whoever wins this game will be in a prime position to make the CFB playoffs. Both teams still have games with Michigan looming – who looks like an absolute juggernaut – but it’s possible that the Big 10 could get two teams into the playoffs this season.
I’m not a huge James Franklin guy, but what his team has done this season has been impressive. Penn State hasn’t navigated the toughest schedule, but they’ve passed each test with flying colors. The Nittany Lions currently rank second in the nation in points allowed to opponents per game, and they’ve averaged the fifth-most points on offense.
Their toughest test up until now was Iowa, and Penn State managed to keep the Hawkeyes completely off the scoreboard. They won 31-0 and easily covered the 14-point spread. In fact, the Nittany Lions are now a perfect 5-0 ATS against FBS competition in 2023. Not every cover has been easy – can you say fake kneel down? – but Franklin knows how to get the job done for the betting alumni.
Oct 14, 2023; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) throws a pass against the Massachusetts Minutemen during the second quarter at Beaver Stadium. Penn State won 63-0. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports
Meanwhile, Ohio State has had a handful of hiccups. They failed to cover against Indiana to start the season, and they struggled in the first half against Maryland two weeks ago. The Buckeyes also needed a last-second score to beat Notre Dame, converting a 3rd-and-19 and a fourth down along the way.
Ohio State is certainly still a good football team, but I’m not sure that they’re a great one this year.
I expect this to be a close game one way or the other, so I’m happy to grab the points with Penn State in a homecoming of sorts for Drew Allar, an Ohio native. I’m locking in the 4.5 now – this line has dipped to 4.0 on a few different occasions this week – but anything more than a field goal is playable.
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UCF +18.5 at Oklahoma (-105; FanDuel)
The sharps are all over UCF this week, and I’m in full agreement. The Golden Knights are one of my favorite plays of the week.
UCF has lost three straight games, but they’ve been without starting QB John Rhys Plumlee for most of that stretch. After a bye last week, head coach Gus Malzahn told reporters that JRP will be back in the lineup against the Sooners and is “close to 100%".
With Plumlee under center, this offense has the potential to be explosive. They’re 15th nationally in net yards per play, and UCF has averaged more than 500 yards per game so far this year.
Oklahoma is also coming off a bye, but the timing wasn’t nearly as helpful as it was for UCF. Instead of carrying all the momentum from their win over Texas, the Sooners spent a week cooling their heels.
Additionally, that win over Texas wasn’t quite as impressive as it seemed on paper. Texas outgained the Sooners in that matchup, and if not for three turnovers and some awful clock management, the Longhorns probably should’ve won. You obviously can’t take the win away from Oklahoma, who now sits at 6-0 for the year, but I still have Texas ranked higher in my power ratings.
Ultimately, this is too many points for Malzahn and UCF. He’s gone 12-4 ATS with at least 10 days to prepare for an opponent, so I’m playing the Golden Knights at anything better than +17.
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Wake Forest -1.0 vs. Pittsburgh (-110; Caesars)
Pittsburgh came through for us last week against Louisville, pulling off an outright win as home underdogs. That win gives the Panthers plenty of street cred, but they’re still just 2-4 on the year with a 0-2 record on the road.
Additionally, Wake Forest couldn’t be catching Pittsburgh at a better time. Not only is this a potential let-down spot after last week’s massive win, but Pittsburgh also has games against Notre Dame and Florida State looming in the next two weeks. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Panthers are looking past the Demon Deacons.
Pittsburgh Panthers Phil Jurkovec prepares to fire the ball downfield while looking for an open receiver during the first half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA on September 23, 2023. Photo Credit: Michael Longo/For USA Today Network / USA TODAY NETWORK
And although Pitt did win last week, it was far from an impressive effort. They were outgained by nearly 150 yards of total offense, but Louisville turned the ball over three times. Pitt managed just 288 yards of their own, so they really struggled to move the ball offensively.
That’s not exactly a shock. The Panthers currently rank just 89th nationally in points per game, and only four schools have managed fewer yards per game against FBS competition.
Wake Forest is struggling to rebuild after losing Sam Hartman to Notre Dame, and they’re currently riding a three-game losing streak. However, head coach Dave Clawson is elite at getting his troops to bounce back. He’s 27-18 ATS following a loss at Wake Forest, so this is the perfect time to buy low on the Demon Deacons. I’d play them at anything less than a field goal.
USC -7.0 vs. Utah (-110; FanDuel)
The dream of Caleb Williams winning back-to-back Heisman Trophies is probably dead, but USC is still alive for a playoff berth. While four of their final five matchups are against ranked opponents, including matchups against Washington and Oregon, USC should be good enough to grab one of the four playoff spots if they can win both of those games and the Pac-12 Championship.
With that in mind, I’m expecting to see a major bounce-back performance from the Trojans on Saturday.
Additionally, this is a bit of a revenge spot for USC after having lost twice to Utah last season. The Utes were directly responsible for keeping them out of the CFB playoffs in 2022, so it would not be surprising to see Williams and Lincoln Riley try to run up the score if possible.
Utah still boasts a strong defense, currently ranking fifth in points allowed to opponents per game, but their offense is a major question mark without QB Cam Rising. There’s talk of him taking a medical redshirt and missing the rest of the year, and I’m not sure how Utah will keep this game competitive without him.
The Utes have already lost to Oregon State without Rising, and they managed just 14 points in a home win against UCLA. They’re going to need to find another gear offensively on the road against USC, and I don’t think they have one.
Unfortunately, this line has moved from USC -6.5 to USC -7.0, but I still think that the Trojans are the correct play at this number. Things will get a bit more dicey if the line moves to 7.5, so I’d lock in USC ASAP.
Arkansas State +10.5 vs. Coastal Carolina (-110; Caesars)
I rode with Arkansas State two weeks ago as a double-digit home underdog against Troy, and things did not work out well. In fact, it was one of just two losses I have for the season in our free College Football Bet Tracker.
However, I’m going right back to the well with the Red Wolves in this spot.
Arkansas State is coming off a bye in Week 7, and they’re catching Coastal Carolina at the perfect time. This will be the Chanticleers' third consecutive road game, and that’s a lot of traveling for a college football squad. Travel may not be a huge deal in the NFL, but I doubt that Coastal Carolina has the same resources dedicated to their football program.
Sep 2, 2023; Pasadena, California, USA; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers quarterback Grayson McCall (10) sets to throw a pass in the second half against the UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Coastal Carolina is also a bit down this year. They’ve won at least nine games in each of the three previous seasons, including two 11-win seasons in 2020 and 2021. However, the Chanticleers are just 3-3 in 2023, and they’re also just 1-2 in Sun Belt games after having gone a combined 20-4 in-conference over the past three seasons.
The Red Wolves have a dynamic QB in Jaylen Raynor, who's racked up 850 yards, 10 TDs, and just one INT in his four starts. He’s also added 194 yards and two scores on the ground, so Raynor a legit two-way threat. Coastal Carolina is going to have to score some points to keep up with him, and they’re simply a middle-of-the-road offense.
It’s time to get our revenge with Arkansas State. This line is down to 10.0 across most of the industry, but you can still find a +10.5 on Caesars.
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