We’re getting pretty deep into the college football season now, and there are still six undefeated teams at the top of the AP poll. With only four slots available in the College Football Playoff, margins are extremely thin for each of those squads down the stretch.
Those teams are going to face some tough tests over the final weeks – the Ohio State-Michigan contest will essentially be a play-in game – but none of them will face a ranked opponent this week. Could there still be a stumbling block, or will these teams continue to cruise towards the new year?
Let’s dive into my favorite bets for Saturday’s college football slate.
Florida +14.5 vs. Georgia (-110, BetMGM)
We’ve done a pretty great job of reading the defending back-to-back national champions so far this season. Georgia has looked sluggish in most of their early-season contests, but they were able to cover against an undefeated Kentucky squad in their last game. It makes sense that we’d see their best performance yet in that contest.
Florida is another important game on their schedule, and the Bulldogs are coming off a bye in Week 8. Still, I doubt that we'll see another A+ performance from Georgia in this spot. Florida isn’t ranked, so Georgia knows that they don’t need to put forth their best effort to secure a victory this week.
Oct 14, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck (15) throws a pass against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
If the Bulldogs don't come into this game prepared, the Gators could definitely keep this one close. Head coach Billy Napier has historically been an elite coach to back as an underdog, having gone a ridiculous 19-6 ATS on his career. Napier also has a perfect 3-0 ATS record thus far against ranked SEC opponents.
Additionally, Florida is also coming off their bye, so they’ll also have had some extra time to prepare for Georgia. The Bulldogs get everybody’s best shot, so expect the Gators to come into this matchup ready to go.
Florida should also have an easier time than usual slowing down Georgia's offense with TE Brock Bowers out of the lineup. Bowers is arguably the best skill-position player for QB Carson Beck, and while Georgia has no shortage of playmakers, losing Bowers will still hurt.
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Michigan State +7.0 at Minnesota (-105, Caesars)
Michigan State is used to being in the mix for Big 10 titles, but they’re currently at the bottom of the standings. In fact, they’re still looking for their first Big 10 win of 2023, having lost to Maryland, Iowa, Rutgers, and Michigan.
I think the Spartans could find that first Big 10 win in Week 9.
Michigan State will travel to Minnesota, who's coming off an upset win over Iowa last week. Still, it’s hard to get too excited about what the Gophers did in that matchup. They managed just 12 points, and they would’ve lost the game had it not been for a controversial punt return TD getting taken off the board:
Offense has been an issue for Minnesota all season. They’ve averaged just 20.3 points per game, which ranks 114th out of 133 teams nationally. And it's not like their defense is elite either – they allowed 52 points to Michigan and 37 points to Northwestern – so they’re the type of team that plays in a lot of close games.
The sharps are all over the Spartans in this spot, as Michigan State currently has 95% of the dollars on 59% of the bets per the Action Network.
I think that this line will close at less than a TD, so I’d suggest locking in the Spartans +7.0 ASAP.
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Cincinnati +7.0 at Oklahoma State (-110, DraftKings)
What happens when a sell-high team meets a buy-low team? In this case, I’m hoping that it'll result in a Cincinnati cover.
The Bearcats made the transition from the AAC to the Big 12 this season, and their results have been abysmal. They went from winning at least nine games in each of the previous five seasons to just a 2-5 record so far this year. Under first-year head coach Scott Satterfield, it'll take a borderline miracle for Cincinnati to even be bowl-eligible at the end of the season.
Still, things haven’t been nearly as bad as they seem on paper. Although the Bearcats have lost five straight games, they’ve outgained their opponents in three of those losses. That includes two games where they outgained their opponent by nearly 200 yards only to ultimately suffer defeats. Even against undefeated Oklahoma, the Sooners only outgained Cincinnati by 50 yards, so Cincinnati was able to keep up in spite of the loss.
Oct 21, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Emory Jones (5) throws a pass against the Baylor Bears in the second half at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
The big issues for this team have been turnovers and lack of red-zone efficiency. They have a -6 turnover differential during their five-game losing streak, and they currently rank just 112th nationally in red-zone scoring. With some better luck in both areas, the Bearcats are a prime candidate to see some positive regression.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are riding high after having won three straight games. They’ve been underdogs in all three contests, so public perception of Oklahoma State is as high as ever.
That said, they have a massive showdown with their biggest rivals coming up next week. With Oklahoma on the horizon, will Oklahoma State be 100% focused for this 2-5 Cincinnati squad?
I’m happy to grab the points with a team that I think is significantly better than their current record might suggest.
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Notre Dame -20.0 vs. Pittsburgh (-110; WynnBET)
Pittsburgh scored a massive upset win over Louisville two weeks ago, but they came crashing back to reality last week with a loss to Wake Forest. Overall, the Panthers have been a below-average team all season, currently ranking just 88th in points per game and 122nd in yards per game.
Notre Dame’s chances of contending for a national championship are over, but if they’re disappointed about that, they certainly didn’t show it in their last game. They hammered USC by 28 points in South Bend, and they’ll be at home once again this week coming out of their bye.
The Fighting Irish always play a tough schedule, and they unsurprisingly have hit a few stumbling blocks. Losing to Ohio State by a field goal is obviously defensible, and they’ve also played close games against Louisville (loss) and Duke (win). Both of those teams were ranked in the top-25, and both of those games were played on the road.
In Notre Dame’s games against lesser competition this year, they’ve passed every test with flying colors. Each of their wins against Navy, Tennessee State, NC State, Central Michigan, and USC were by at least 21 points, and their smallest win at home this season was 24 points.
Add it all up, and I expect to see the Irish assert their dominance on Saturday.
California +11.0 vs. USC (-110; WynnBET)
I'm slightly embarrassed that I fell for the trap with USC last week. I thought that this Trojans team would have something to prove after having lost twice to Utah last season, and with Utah missing their starting QB, I expected an easy USC win.
The Trojans have the best player in college football, and they would've still had a path to the CFB playoffs had they been able to win the rest of their games.
Instead, they laid an absolute egg.
At this point, I think that Caleb Williams and the rest of this team is pretty much mentally checked out. This was a “National Championship or bust” kind of season, and they ended up busting. I’m sure that Williams has one eye on the NFL already, and the rest of the team can see the writing on the wall.
Oct 21, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws the ball against the Utah Utes in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
On paper, this game should not be close. USC should be able to hang 50-plus points on California. Of course, their defense is capable of giving back every single one of those scores. They rank 107th nationally in terms of points allowed per game, and they’ve allowed 41 points over their past four contests.
Cal’s offense isn’t nearly as good as USC’s, but they should be good enough to succeed in this matchup.
Their rushing attack has been excellent this season, currently ranking in the top-30 in both EPA per play and success rate. Additionally, head coach Justin Wilcox is 26-14-1 ATS as an underdog, including 17-8 when getting at least seven points.
I love grabbing the 11 points with the Golden Bears at home, and it wouldn’t shock me if they were to win this game outright.
