College Football Championship Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Washington vs. Michigan
In the end, there were two. After all the debate, we’re left with the Washington Huskies facing the Michigan Wolverines in a showdown for the College Football National Championship.
It’s hard to find an argument against Washington and Michigan having been the two best teams this season. Both squads will enter this contest undefeated, and they were the top two seeds in the playoffs. The Wolverines steamrolled their way through the Big 10, and the Huskies survived a couple of close calls in the very competitive Pac 12.
Stylistically, these teams are mirror opposites. Michigan is built around a dominant defense while Washington has been a juggernaut offensively. Michael Penix Jr. was the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy, but this will undoubtedly be his toughest test.
The Wolverines are currently listed as 4.5-point favorites, but the Huskies have exceeded expectations all year. Do they have one more cover in them, or will Jim Harbaugh take home his first CFB National Championship? Let’s dive into my best bets for this game.
Washington Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines
- Spread: Michigan -4.5 (-105, BetMGM)
- Total: 55.5
- Moneylines: Washington +155 / Michigan -190
After some ugly CFB seminal games in recent years, we had two great matchups this year. Michigan was able to outlast Alabama in overtime while Washington survived a late push from Texas. However, both teams won the yardage battle, so it’s hard to say that they didn’t deserve to win.
Michigan beat Alabama the same way they’ve won all season: with a dominant defense and a good-enough offense. They limited the Crimson Tide to just 288 yards of total offense, well below their season average of 381 yards.
Alabama's dynamic QB, Jalen Milroe, was held to just 116 scoreless passing yards with 21 carries for 63 yards as a runner. Given that he averaged 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt with two passing TDs against Georgia in the SEC Championship and finished sixth in the Heisman race, the fact that Michigan was able to shut Milroe down completely was extremely impressive.
That said, it didn't exactly come as a surprise. The Wolverines' defense has been stifling with the fewest yards and points allowed per game to opponents. In fact, they held eight of their 14 opponents to seven points or fewer, and only three teams managed to score 20 points or more against them: Alabama (20), Ohio State (24), and Maryland (24). Michigan's defense also ranked first in coverage grade and fifth in run defense grade per Pro Football Focus (PFF), so they really have no weakness on that side of the ball.
Michigan defensive end Jaylen Harrell tackles Alabama running back Jase McClellan during the first half of the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, on Monday, Jan. 1, 2024. Photo Credit: Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
Michigan’s defense is so good that it often overshadows their offense, but they’re pretty good there as well. The Wolverines were tied for sixth in PFF offensive grade, so they also can put points on the board when needed.
QB J.J. McCarthy has the potential to enter the 2024 NFL Draft, though scouts are a bit conflicted about his upside. He'll likely be a Day 2 pick but could sneak into the first round. Regardless, McCarthy is the best QB that Michigan has had during the Jim Harbaugh era. He’s averaged 9.9 adjusted yards per attempt with 22 TDs to only four INTs as a junior, and McCarthy added 171 yards and three TDs as a runner in 2023.
Additionally, RB Blake Corum is an outstanding complement to McCarthy in the backfield, and Corum has finished in the top 10 in Heisman voting in back-to-back years. He’s racked up at least 1,228 scrimmage yards in both seasons, and Corum's 26 total TDs this year were the most in the nation by a wide margin.
Overall, this Wolverines unit may not have the same eye-popping numbers as the Huskies' offense, but they’ve had no problems moving the ball all season.
Speaking of Washington, Penix is coming off an absolute masterclass against Texas in the Rose Bowl. He passed for 430 yards, two TDs, and no INTs with an impeccable 76.3% completion rate while adding 31 yards on the ground.
Jan 1, 2024; New Orleans, LA, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) passes the ball as Texas Longhorns defensive lineman Byron Murphy II (90) chases in the 2024 Sugar Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Penix has struggled with injuries for his whole career, but he’s never struggled to produce when healthy. Whether it was at Indiana or Washington, it’s clear that Penix was an elite college QB. Among high-volume passers, only Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix had better PFF grades this season.
With Penix under center, Washington's offense ranked 10th in yards per game and ninth in points per game in 2023. The Huskies also scored at least 31 points in all but three games this season with six 40-plus point outings. With Penix throwing to a sure-fire first-round WR in Rome Odunze combined with an 1,100-yard runner in Dillon Johnson, stopping this Washington offense seems nearly impossible.
The big X factor in this game will be the Huskies' defense, as they were suspect for most of the year. That said, they did show some improvement down the stretch. Washington's defense managed to hold Oregon to 31 points in the Pac 12 championship (10 points below their season average) and got stops against the Longhorns when they needed them the most in the Sugar Bowl. Still, the Huskies rank just 37th in PFF defensive grade on the year, so if there’s an exploitable unit in this contest, it's Washington's defense.
Best Bet: Michigan -4.5 (-105, BetMGM)
After having been disrespected for most of the year, both the oddsmakers and betting public have finally started to come around on the Huskies. Washington closed as just a 3.5-point underdog against Texas, and Michigan is favored over them by only 4.5 points in this game. Michigan is undoubtedly a better squad than Texas, so the oddsmakers have clearly upgraded their assessment of Washington.
The betting public is also starting to take notice. The Huskies have gone 3-0 as underdogs this season, having covered the spread by an average of 8.3 points per game in those contests. In fact, while it's a small sample size, no coach in college football has had a better ATS record as an underdog than Kalen DeBour since 1990:
It appears as though the public has now fully bought into this Washington team, as 72% of the bets and 74% of the dollars have been on the Huskies in this championship matchup per the Action Network. The sharps have yet to weigh in on this contest, but the early betting activity has all been on Washington.
That said, The Huskies' previous best wins have all come against teams with flaws; Oregon was as inept defensively as Washington while Texas ranked just 62nd in PFF coverage grade this year. It’s not all that surprising that Penix was able to lead Washington to victory in these shootouts.
However, going up against Michigan will be their toughest test yet. The Wolverines have been the best team in college football this season, bar none.
Michigan defensive back Mike Sainristil tackles Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe during the first half of the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, on Monday, Jan. 1, 2024. Photo Credit: Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
What will happen if Michigan is the team to finally slow down Washington's offense? If the Huskies can't score like they're used to in this game, they simply don't have the defense to stop the Wolverines and keep this game in reach.
Ultimately, I think that this is the perfect time to sell high on Washington. I have this spread closer to seven points using my projected power ratings, and I think that’s what this number would’ve been had these two teams met a week ago. This is the year where Harbaugh will finally get the Maize and Blue over the hump.
You can tail Michigan -4.5 on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
Other Wagers
As a resident of New York, I unfortunately don't have the option of betting on player props. Instead, I'm going to hand the reigns over to Mark Drumheller to take us the rest of the way.
Michael Penix Jr. Over 291.5 passing yards (-115; DraftKings)
The matchup the world will be watching is the Huskies' offensive line against the Wolverines' defensive front. Michigan made the Tide’s pass-blocking unit look like turnstiles during last week’s semi-final win.
However, these Huskies are a different breed. Outside of earning the Joe Moore award as the country’s top offensive line, Penix's protectors allow sacks on only 2.06% of dropbacks — the second-lowest mark in college football. Alabama, the team Michigan feasted on, ranks 132nd of 133 FBS teams in the same category. Michigan will pressure Penix, but I am willing to wager it’s not nearly as big of a factor as we saw last weekend. Penix's ability to hang in the pocket and deliver dots deep down the field is a huge reason I’m betting him to go over his passing yards total against Michigan’s stingy secondary.
Here’s why I love this prop so much — Penix is relentless.
When Washington gets threatened, the Penix-Odunze connection becomes unstoppable. Per Bill Connelly, Penix Jr. completed 19 of 21 passes to Odunze for 333 yards this season when the in-game win probability fell under 50%. Considering Michigan should be able to run up and down the field on Washington’s defense, there will be a massive amount of urgency on the Huskies' offense to respond every time they touch the ball. With Johnson playing through a leg injury, the offense falls entirely on the arm of their quarterback. Penix diced up the Oregon Ducks for 300+ yards on two separate occasions and is coming off a 430-yard performance against Texas. Win or lose, the Heisman finalist will get his.
You can tail the Penix prop at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!
Same-Game Parlay (+766; FanDuel)
- Penix Over 292.5 passing yards
- Corum anytime touchdown
- Over 58.5
- Roman Wilson Over 44.5 receiving yards
- Ja’Lynn Polk Over 53.5 receiving yards
We didn’t hit big on our SGP for the semi-finals, so let’s take a more measured swing with five legs at +766 odds. Corum will cut through this Washington defense like a hot knife through butter, so adding his anytime touchdown to our best prop will get us off to a solid start. It’s all about moving the sticks early and giving us a manageable shot at the later legs.
While Michigan’s brand of football doesn’t scream “over,” the National Championship game does. The National Championship games have averaged 65.3 combined points, and only two (22%) have ended with less than 60 in the nine-year history of the College Football Playoffs.
We will close the show with receiving overs. Wilson was the go-to guy for the Wolverines’ passing game last week, gashing a solid Alabama secondary for 73 yards. I also like Polk to have another standout performance for the Huskies, considering Odunze will likely see a lot of Will Johnson.
You can tail the SGP at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $5 or more!
