It's Championship Games Weekend! And my best bets include a best bet for Iowa State/Arizona State, several props across all the title games, one last bit of MACtion… and more. A lot more. Pour yourself a drink and settle in for a big one. 

It got so big, in fact, I broke out some separate pieces for the high-profile games:

I also have a projected playoff bracket. After the official bracket is announced Sunday, we'll have extensive coverage of all the matchups, as well as predictions, projections, and more!

Below each game's odds, you'll see my CFB model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, I have a full college football game model based on my projections, for all the games this weekend. 

Onto the picks!

MAC Championship | Detroit, MI | Saturday: Ohio vs. Miami (OH)

Couple injury notes: Ohio WR Coleman Owen managed to play last week after getting dinged-up the week before. Owen caught five balls for 142 yards and two TD against Ball State. Owen appears to be a full-go. Ditto for Miami (OH) WR Cade McDonald. McDonald returned to the field last week against Bowling Green and led the team with nine catches for 82 yards and a TD.

In the prop market, we like the over on Miami (OH) QB Brett Gabbert’s 209.5 passing yards. Gabbert averaged 220.7 YPG passing over four November games. Miami’s passing game has a bunch of quick-hit, three-step-drop concepts. Gabbert has the 17th-fastest average release time in the FBS. 

This style should neutralize Ohio’s strong pass-rush, while taking advantage of Ohio’s propensity to leave itself thin on the back-end. The Bobcats’ pass defense ranks No. 73 in success rate, No. 80 in completion percentage allowed, and No. 81 in adjusted completion percentage.

In a correlated play, we’re also taking the over on Miami WR McDonald’s 43.5 receiving yards. McDonald has played in roughly eight-and-a-half games, while Miami’s two other starting WRs have played in all 12… and yet McDonald has nearly as many targets as them. This price is more reflective of McDonald’s iffy health status prior to last week than reality as it stands.

Thor’s Bets: 

  • Miami (OH) QB Brett Gabbert Over 209.5 Passing Yards 
  • Miami (OH) WR Cade McDonald Higher 43.5 Receiving Yards

Big 12 Championship | Arlington, TX | Saturday: Arizona State vs. Iowa State

Spread: 

Arizona State WR1 Jordyn Tyson suffered what appears to be a season-ending collarbone injury last week against Arizona. Tyson will not be active for this game. That’s a devastating turn of events for a limited ASU passing game. 

Tyson has been targeted 114 times this season (75-1101-10 receiving line). ASU’s next-three highest targeted receivers –  Chamon Metayer, Cam Skattebo, Xavier Guillory – have been targeted a combined 118 times.

ASU doesn’t trust another receiver outside of Tyson. This puts an incredible amount of pressure on ASU RB Cam Skattebo to generate offense in this game. Can Skattebo – who is nearing 300 touches on the season – put the team on his back for four quarters when ISU knows what’s coming?

Iowa State’s No. 24 EPA/dropback-ranked pass defense is going to have no issues with ASU’s straightforward, risk-averse pass game. Skattebo should get his yards against ISU’s No. 89 EPA/run-ranked rushing defense – but, again, he’s going to be ganged-up on all day.

We did speculatively go over on Arizona State WR Xavier Guillory at 42.5 receiving yards in the prop market. Guillory assumes the WR1 role in this game. Guillory was already the team’s downfield field stretcher, leading the team amongst those with more than six receptions with a healthy 17.1 aDOT (with an identical 17.1 YPR average). In this game, Guillory should get at least his normal couple downfield shots.

Meanwhile, ISU’s No. 24 EPA/dropback-ranked passing offense should have success against an Arizona State pass defense ranked No. 55 in the same metric. We also think ISU will have some success on the ground in this one. ASU’s run defense has sagged to No. 78 EPA/run.

That’s why we’re going over on Iowa State RB Abu Sama’s 34.5 rushing yards in the prop market. Earlier this season, Sama fell out of favor, and ISU leaned more toward the pass. But Sama has carried the ball 12-times-or-more in two-of-the-last-three games, and had double-digit carries in four-of-six. 

Sama had at least 52 yards in all four of those games. We see 10-14 carries coming for Sama against Arizona State, which should get him comfortably over this number.

We also like Iowa State to pull the small upset and punch a ticket into the CFP against this compromised Arizona State team.

Thor’s Bets: 

  • Iowa State +2.5 
  • Iowa State RB Abu Sama Over 34.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Arizona State WR Xavier Guillory Over 42.5 Receiving Yards

Sun Belt Championship | Lafayette, LA | Saturday: Louisiana vs. Marshall

Marshall was able to topple James Madison last week without the services of LG Bryce Ramsey, LB Landyn Watson, and CB Josh Moten. Bettors interested in this game will want to keep an eye on the status of all three as we get closer to gameday.

We jumped at the under on Marshall RB A.J. Turner at 52.5 rushing yards when it opened. Turner is in a three-headed RB platoon with Jordan Houston and Ethan Payne. Since Week 10, Houston has taken 25-plus snaps in every game, and Payne has taken 11-plus. 

During that same stretch, Turner averaged 13.7 snaps per game. He only topped his number once in those four contests, and just barely – getting to 53 against Old Dominion. Another thing that has hurt Turner is the emergence of dual-threat QB Braylon Braxton, who has had 12-or-more carries in six-straight games. 

You can run on Louisiana (No. 122 EPA/run). We just don’t think Turner will get enough usage to reach this number amid Marshall’s crowded RB room, with Braxton once again assuming a chunk of the rushing plan by himself.

We do, however, like the over on Braxton’s 58.5 rushing number. We believe the Herd coaching staff will go right at Louisiana’s Achilles Heel by centering this gameplan around Braxton’s mobility.

Thor’s Bets: 

  • Marshall QB Braylon Braxton Over 58.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Marshall RB A.J. Turner Under 52.5 Rushing Yards 

Friday's Games:

 Mountain West Championship | Boise, ID | Friday: Boise State vs. UNLV 

We’re staying away from the side of the MWC title game, but we’ve got a laundry list of player props.

Starting on the Boise State side, we’re going under on QB Maddux Madsen’s 216.5 passing yards and his 37.5-yard longest completion. 

Madsen has thrown for 217-or-fewer yards in eight-of-12 games this year. In all four games he went over, Madsen had 25 or more passing attempts, with 30 or more in three of those. In the first game against UNLV in late-October, Madsen was asked to throw the ball 33 times in a closer-than-expected 29-24 Boise State win. 

He finished with only 209 yards in that game. If BSU wins this game, they’re going to ask Madsen to play conservative and take care of the ball. Speaking of that, Madsen has gone under the 37.5-yard longest completion in five of six games. The one he didn’t – against Nevada – Madsen only went over by a half-yard (38).

We’re also fading Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty’s receiving props. Jeanty already has 92 more carries than he had all of last year. But he also has 25 fewer catches than he did last year – Boise State has been funnelling Jeanty’s touches into handoffs in 2024 as opposed to passing-game usage.

Jeanty is averaging just 8.5 receiving yards per game this season. He has gone under his 13.5 receiving yard number in 10-of-12 games. Jeanty has similarly gone under his 9.5-yard longest reception number in 10-of-12 games.

On the UNLV side, we’re positive about the passing game and pessimistic about the running game in the prop market. 

Boise State has a very good run defense (No. 17 EPA/run), but a shoddy pass defense (No. 79 EPA/dropback). In a neutral gamescript, UNLV should skew more air-heavy than normal. And if the Runnin’ Rebs indeed play from a deficit in the second half, they’ll become even more air-centric.

So we like the overs on UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams at 178.5 passing yards and UNLV WR Ricky White at 75.5 receiving yards. Williams is averaging 192.8 YPG passing since taking over as the starter. He had 179 passing yards in the first game against Boise – but needed only 21 attempts to get there. We think he’ll have more on Friday. 

White, his go-to receiver, has gone over his receiving yardage number in eight-of-11 games. In five of them, he had 125-plus receiving yards. We believe Williams will be targeting White – UNLV’s best player – early and often in this must-win game. White has been targeted eight-or-more times in four straight games. He’s gone over his 5.5 reception number in six of the last nine games. In all three that he didn’t, White finished with exactly five receptions.

UNLV uses an RB platoon. And even though RB Jai'Den Thomas has gone over 105 rushing yards in three-of-four, and even though he scored a TD in each of those games, we’re fading his 72.5 rushing yardage number. 

Thomas went under this number in seven of the first eight games before his recent hot streak. He had only 43 yards against BSU the first time around. We believe UNLV will be more pass-centric against BSU, and that they’ll get three RBs heavily involved. RB2 Kylin James will, as usual, take some of the rushing load from Thomas. 

But look for more of RB3 Greg Burrell in this game. Of FBS RBs with 25-plus pass-pro reps, Burrell ranks No. 11 in PFF pass-blocking grade. Thomas himself ranks No. 10. But Burrell is the slightly better receiver, and, in pass-heavy game scripts, Burrell enters the equation, complicating matters for Thomas further. 

Thor’s Bets: 

  • Boise State QB Maddux Madsen Under 216.5 Passing Yards 
  • Madsen Under 37.5 Longest Completion
  • Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty Under 13.5 Receiving Yards
  • Jeanty Under 9.5 Yards Longest Reception
  • UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams Over 178.5 Passing Yards
  • UNLV RB Jai'Den Thomas Under 72.5 Rushing Yards
  • UNLV WR Ricky White Over 75.5 Receiving Yards
  • White Over 5.5 Receptions 

AAC championship | West Point, NY | Friday: Tulane vs. Army

Army has been criticized for its poor strength of schedule. But how different is Tulane’s situation? Tulane accrued 8.3 second-order wins against our No. 82 SOS. Army posted 8.8 second-order wins against our No. 101 SOS. SP+ ranks Army’s resume No. 14, and Tulane’s No. 21.

These teams did not play each other in the regular season. Tulane did play Navy, beating the Midshipmen 35-0. But Navy QB1 Blake Horvath was knocked out of the game early after suffering an injury in the first quarter, ceding way to the ineffective Braxton Woodson.

That injury neutered whatever chances Navy had of being competitive in that game. The next week, Tulane had a bye. Last week, Tulane was upset 34-24 by Memphis as a double-digit favorite. In that game, Memphis RB Mario Anderson erupted for 177 rushing yards as the Tigers ran for 242 yards as a team.

Memphis’ rushing outburst shone a spotlight on Tulane’s biggest issues as a team: Tackling, and allowing explosive runs.

Tulane ranks No. 25 SP+ on offense, and the Green Wave have a very good pass defense. The run defense has been solid when it can shut a play down right away – ranking No. 14 in success rate and No. 30 in yards before contact.

But Tulane ranks a lowly No. 125 in tackle rate, No. 118 in yards after contact, No. 101 in YPC with sacks omitted, and No. 130 in yards per successful rush allowed. In short: Tulane’s tackling woes open up opportunities for chunk plays on the ground.

Army QB Bryson Daily ranks No. 7 among FBS quarterbacks in broken tackles, and RB Kanye Udoh ranks top-100 among RBs. Both players have accrued a tick over 36% of their total rushing outputs on breakaway (15+ yards) runs.

We’re on Udoh’s over 41.5 rushing yards in the prop market. He went under the last two weeks – depressing his price this week – but Udoh went over in eight-of-nine games to start the year and we expect him to once again in this game.

We’re also going over on Tulane WR Dontae Fleming’s 28.5 receiving yards number. Fleming had no catches in the Memphis debacle, leading to this price-check in the prop market. But he’d gone over in five-straight prior to that, and eight-of-10 going back to early-September. 

Despite last week’s box score output, Fleming actually ran more routes than in any other game this season. As one of Tulane’s starting boundary WRs, Fleming doesn’t come off the field when the team goes into 12-personnel. 

Army has issues with teams that have the athleticism to shut down rushing concepts outside the tackles, and teams that tackle well. Notre Dame being this season’s biggest example. Tulane doesn’t fit that mold. Our system believes the line of this game should be a pick ‘em. We’re going to take the 4.5 points with a live underdog.

Thor’s Bets: 

  • Army +4.5
  • Army RB Kanye Udoh Over 41.5 Rushing Yards
  • Dontae Fleming Over 28.5 Receiving Yards

Conference USA Championship | Jacksonville, AL | Friday: Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky

These teams met last week, with WKU hitting a game-winning 50-yard field goal with three seconds to escape with a 19-17 win.

WKU – which needed to win the game to clinch a berth into the CUSA title game – had everything to play for in that game. Jacksonville State – which had already clinched its own berth – had nothing to play for. J-State also played the end of that game with its QB2.

We cashed a Jax State +2.5 ticket in that game. We’re returning to the well for many of the same reasons we backed JSU last week. This is what we wrote in this space seven days ago:

”Western Kentucky has lost two-straight, a surprising 12-7 upset loss to Louisiana Tech, and a 38-21 loss to Liberty last week. … WKU has a really good pass defense (No. 15 success rate and No. 53 EPA/dropback). But WKU’s run defense stinks (No. 111 success rate and No. 100 yards per rush with sacks omitted). That’s a bad recipe against Jacksonville State’s offense. The Gamecocks have one of the G5’s best rushing offenses … No. 4 in standard downs rush rate and No. 5 EPA/run. WKU’s Air Raid will get its yards against a mediocre Jacksonville State pass defense, but the Gamecocks are top-25 in turnovers forced and interception % and feel like a good bet to flip the field on a WKU offense that throws too many interceptions.”

We love the matchup for J-State once again, especially now that motivation has become a wash on both sides. One potential complication?: Jacksonville State QB1 Tyler Huff injured his left knee or ankle against WKU and was removed from the game.

JSU HC Rich Rodriguez has not yet updated Huff’s status. Veteran QB2 Logan Smothers – a transfer from Nebraska who started most of last season – would get the call if Huff can’t go. Smothers isn’t as good as Huff (1,079 rushing yards and 13 TD this year), but he’s a competent veteran backup who knows the offense and has already seen the defense.

Even with the Huff injury, we were showing a little line value on J-State. We like Jacksonville State to win this game and cover the number regardless of who is behind center.

In the prop market, we’re on the over of WKU RB Elijah Young’s 23.5 receiving yard total. Last week against this same Jacksonville State team, Young had seven catches for 78 yards and a TD. WKU has played in four games decided by one possession. In those games, Young has averaged about five catches for 38 receiving yards per game. We see similar output coming in this game. When WKU goes into throw-throw-throw mode, Young becomes a big part of the passing game.

In a correlated play, we’re also going under Young’s 14.5 rushing attempts number. WKU has lost three games by more than one point this year. In those games, Young averaged 9.6 rushing attempts per game. The way we see this game playing out, WKU will leverage Young in the passing game as much as they do the running game.

Thor’s Bets: 

  • JSU -3.5 
  • WKU RB Elijah Young Over 23.5 Receiving Yards 
  • Young Under 14.5 Rushing Attempts