This week's 10 best bets include a big discrepancy on the UConn and Penn State games between my model and the line, a Kalel Mullings rushing prop, and more. We have a fun mix!

Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets early and immediately – as they happen – into our college football free bet tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move. Also, I rank all 134 FBS teams weekly — if you're here, you're probably going to enjoy that, as well (we have strength of schedule and projected wins, too!). 

“Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full college football game model based on my projections. 

Onto the picks!

Clemson vs. Louisville

Adjusted Thor Line: Clemson -9.5

This spread is giving a level of respect to Clemson that I’m not sure it has earned. Clemson has won six straight since getting decked by Georgia in the opener. But during that stretch, the Tigers did not play one team with a record over .500. 

The Tigers have a strong analytical profile, with the No. 10 SP+ offense and No. 25 SP+ defense. The offense has been humming since the Georgia debacle, albeit against weak competition.

Clemson’s defense, however, has holes capable of being exploited – allowing explosive runs (No. 99 yards per rush) and tackling (No. 97 success rate). Louisville projects to do just that.

The Cardinals rank No. 20 in yards per rush, and No. 36 in yards per carry after contact. This is the thinking behind UL RB Isaac Brown’s rushing prop. Brown has gone over this number in four of five games – including 11-or-more in two of them. 

Clemson’s run game, on the other side, is going to be met by resistance from Louisville’s top-tier run defense. The Tigers, however, should have some success throwing. Louisville has a strong pass-rush, but a poor overall pass defense – so it’ll be interesting to see if Clemson’s OL can give QB Cade Klubnik enough time to exploit that.

We think Brown has a big day as Louisville puts a scare into Clemson.

Thor’s bet: Louisville +11.5 | UL RB Brown Over 62.5 Rushing Yards

UConn vs. Georgia State

Adjusted Thor Line: Connecticut -10.9

UConn, 5-3, boast one of the G5’s best defenses (No. 49). The Huskies have not given up more than 20 points to a G5 opponent. UConn’s pass defense (No. 8 success rate) is particularly dominant.

That makes this a bad matchup for Georgia State, one of the pass-happiest teams in the nation. The Panthers, losers of four straight, may have issues moving the sticks.

GSU, unhappy with its quarterback play, benched QB Christian Veilleux for Zach Gibson earlier this month. Gibson, proven veteran mediocrity, has thrown for a mere 192 yards in each of the last two losses.

Meanwhile, UConn’s offense, while far from powerful, should be able to scratch out points here. GSU has allowed 32-points-or-more in five-of-six games against FBS opponents.

Thor’s bet: UConn -6.5

UTSA vs. Memphis

Adjusted Thor Line: Memphis -8.8

Each of these defenses allows explosive plays at an alarming rate – Memphis is No. 128 in marginal explosiveness, while UTSA is No. 134.

The difference in this handicap is that Memphis can generate those on offense, while UTSA cannot. The Tigers are No. 26 in % of plays gaining 20-plus yards. UTSA is No. 99.

UTSA, in particular, is going to have issues with Memphis’ passing attack. The Roadrunners’ pass defense ranks No. 104 in yards/dropback and No. 91 in EPA/dropback. 

Memphis, one of the 20-most pass-happy offenses in the country, completes a high percentage of throws (No. 35 completion rate) while taking care of the ball (No. 10 INT %).

That is a recipe for moving the chains at will against UTSA’s defense. 

Thor’s bet: Memphis -7.5

Penn State vs. Ohio State 

Adjusted Thor Line: Penn State -0.4

There is some mystery on Penn State’s side heading into this game with QB Drew Allar labeled a “game-time decision” on Monday by HC James Franklin. Allar suffered a left knee injury late in the second quarter of Saturday's win at Wisconsin. 

After being evaluated, Allar returned to the field in uniform in advance of the third quarter to warm up. Allar then had a long huddle with the coaching staff. On Monday, we learned that during that conversation, Allar told Franklin he thought the injury would factor into his effectiveness. 

That the medical staff allowed Allar to give it a go and cleared a potential return would seem to be a clear indication that the injury is not serious nor structural, giving credence to Franklin’s comments that he has a shot to play this weekend.

Either way, I took Penn State and the four points on Sunday night. I believe this spread is an overreaction to Allar’s status. If both of these teams were full-strength, my system believes the fair-market spread should have been PSU -0.4.

If Allar winds up missing this game, the obvious question becomes – is the downgrade from Allar to Pribula worth 4.5 points?

As you can tell from my bet, I don’t believe it is. This preseason, Brad Powers estimated the drop from Allar to Pribula to be worth three points on the spread. The website CFB Depth currently pegs that exact same three-point downgrade.

When Allar went down on Saturday, the Nittany Lions trailed 10-7. Pribula went 11-for-13 for 98 yards, one TD and zero interceptions as PSU dominated Wisconsin 21-3 in the second half. The Nits won 28-13.

I would put the downgrade from Allar to Pribula between 1.5 and 2 points. Allar has posted an 89.9 PFF grade in 389 snaps this season. Pribula has posted an 88.1 PFF grade in 117 snaps. This is, of course, is a limited sample – but we got some proof-of-life to the theory that the dropoff is not precipitous last Saturday.

One other factor to my conviction: PSU OC Andy Kotelnicki. Kotelnicki’s scheme is extremely quarterback-friendly, and it is tailored to the personnel on hand. The last three seasons, when Kotelnicki was at Kansas, KU QB Jalon Daniels posted a combined 30/8 TD/INT rate on nearly 70% completions. This year, without Kotelnicki, Daniels has an 11/9 TD/INT rate on 56.8% completions – despite almost every key contributor returning on KU’s offense.

Pribula signed in the same 2022 class as Allar did, a dual-threat that ESPN ranked a four-star and other services pegged as a three-star. The QB2 the past two years, Pribula has been used more than most backup QBs. Penn State subs him in on sub-package looks to stress defenses with Pribula’s athleticism. As a true freshman, Pribula actually practiced at WR and S before ultimately shifting back to QB full-time.

Pribula does not have the arm talent that Allar does, but he’s a better runner, and he takes care of the ball. PFF has never charted Pribula with a turnover-worthy play. He might ironically be a better system fit than Allar in this game. If Ohio State’s offense plays anything like it did last week, PSU’s best course of action is to keep the ball on the ground and play things conservatively.

Can Ohio State’s struggling, injury-decimated offensive line hold up against PSU’s elite front-seven? Not likely. OSU’s OL has looked bad ever since LT Josh Simmons’ season-ending knee injury against Oregon. 

Simmons’ replacement, Zen Michalski, gave up two sacks and two additional pressures against Nebraska before getting injured himself. The Buckeyes were held to only 2.6 per carry in that game. We don’t know if Michalski is healthy enough to play, nor if OSU HC Ryan Day trusts him enough to start again. 

But Day was very clear on one point this week: If Michalski doesn’t start, veteran LG Donovan Jackson will shift to LT for this game. That’s a move that reeks of desperation. If PSU dominates in the trenches – the likely outcome – making it unfeasible for OSU to run effectively again, then the onus is going to be on OSU QB Will Howard to move the offense through the air against  an elite pass defense.

This brings us to Will Howard’s interception prop. Since September 21, Howard has thrown an interception in four-of-five games. Last year, at Kansas State, Howard threw 10 interceptions in 12 games. 

Penn State’s No. 3 SP+ defense ranks No. 25 in havoc. We expect the Nittany Lions’ defense to carry the day in an upset.

Thor’s bets: Penn State +4 | OSU QB Howard Over 0.5 Interceptions

Michigan vs. Oregon

Kalel Mullings’ rushing prop can be had at a steep discount this week for a few reasons: 1) He only had 13 carries for 18 yards last week against Michigan State, and, 2) Misconceptions about Oregon’s defense, 3) Michigan is a 14.5-point underdog, bringing about gamescript concerns.

Michigan State’s run defense is easily the strength of the entire team. The game before, Sparty upset Iowa by becoming only the second team to hold RB Kaleb Johnson under 100 yards rushing. 

In an attempt to augment this, the Wolverines used running QB2 Alex Orji in sub-packages more often to steal ground yards. Orji was Michigan’s leading rusher in that game. 

This time around, the neutral-script gameplan will be more straightforward: Go right at Oregon’s weakness, its run defense. The Ducks rank No. 97 in EPA/rush defensively. Oregon is also shoddy with tackling, ranking No. 78 in tackle success rate.

Defending the pass is where Oregon is elite (No. 12 EPA/dropback), incentivizing Michigan even more extremely to stay on the ground in a neutral gamescript. Mullings averaged 6.5 YPC in three games against teams ranked in the AP top-25 at the time, and 5.6 YPC over the entire season. 

Even if Michigan gets blown out and the gamescript eliminates the run in the fourth quarter, Mullings should have a strong shot to breach this number. If he gets 10 carries, the data on both sides suggests he’s going over. Mullings has 10-or-more carries in six-straight games.

Speaking of projected gamescript and Oregon’s elite pass-defense, we like the prop on Michigan QB Davis Warren to throw an interception. Jack Tuttle has medically retired, and Orji has settled in as the subpackage runner he is meant to be. That means it’s Warren’s show going forward.

Warren has thrown an incredible seven interceptions in only 96 attempts going back to last year – one every 13.7 attempts. With Michigan underdogs by 14.5 points, Warren is likely going to have to throw 25-plus times into the teeth of a very good pass defense. His body of work suggests an interception or two is coming.

Thor’s bets: UM RB Mullings Over 60.5 Rushing Yards | UM QB Warren Over 0.5 Interceptions

Tulane vs. Charlotte

Darian Mensah has thrown for 175 yards or less in five games this season, including three straight, and four-of-five. 

This number is elevated because of two outlier games where Mensah topped 325 passing yards – against USF and Kansas State in September.

Tulane is one of the most run-happy teams in the nation. And when the Green Wave take double-digit leads, they skew even more radically to the run. Tulane is favored by 14.5 points in this game. 

Additionally, for neutral-script purposes, Charlotte’s defense is far better against the pass (No. 66 success rate) than the run (No. 119 success rate).

Thor’s bet: QB Mensah Under 190.5 Passing Yards

Kansas State vs. Houston

Johnson has thrown for 224-yards-or-more in four-straight games. In those four games, KSU played two of the very worst pass defenses in the P4 (West Virginia and Oklahoma State), and had to come back late to win in the other two (Kansas and Colorado).

Back in September, Johnson didn’t top 181 passing yards in any of KSU’s four games. We see Johnson’s passing usage reverting back that direction in this game. 

Kansas State, like Tulane, is a run-first team (though perhaps not quite as slanted). And Houston, like Charlotte, is a heavy underdog (+13.5) that has a better pass defense (No. 56 EPA/dropback) than run defense (No. 82 EPA/run).

Similar to the Mensah handicap, we expect KSU to stake out to a lead and heavily skew to the ground, carving up a bad run defense to keep the chains moving and the clock ticking.

Thor’s bet: QB Johnson Under 202.5 Passing Yards