This week's 10 best bets include a big discrepancy in the San Jose State line when held against our model, a Cincinnati passing yards prop, a little love for Kansas, and more. We have a fun mix!
Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets early and immediately – as they happen – into our college football free bet tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move. Also, I rank all 134 FBS teams weekly — if you're here, you're probably going to enjoy that, as well (we have strength of schedule and projected wins, too!).
“Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full college football game model based on my projections.
Onto the picks!
Coastal Carolina vs. Appalachian State
Appalachian State has one of the nation’s three worst run defenses. Because opponents can run at will on Appy, the chains keep moving, leading to more runs. The Mountaineers rank No. 133 in rushing success rate, No. 129 in yards per carry, and No. 132 in EPA/run.
Bennett missed time earlier this fall with an injury. By the time he came back, RB2 Christian Washington suffered an injury of his own that kept him off the field for a month.
Last week, in Washington’s first game back, he only touched the ball twice – Bennett had 13 touches. It’s possible that Washington gets a bit more work in this game, but Bennett will start and get more usage.
The gamescript has flipped against Coastal’s running game during the recent three-game losing streak. With Coastal a short favorite, there’s less of a chance of that happening here.
Bennett is averaging 6.5 YPC on the year. The data would suggest that we only need him to get to 9-to-11 carries to feel good about his chances of breaching this number.
Thor’s Bet: CC RB Bennett Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
Wake Forest vs. California
Adjusted Thor Line: Cal -5.1
This week, Cal travels cross-country to face another 4-4 ACC team. This will be the fourth cross-country road trip the injury-ravaged Bears have made this season.
Cal RB Jaydn Ott hasn’t been 100-percent since the first half of the opener, the WR corps hasn’t been full-strength all season, and the offensive line and defense have both been hit particularly hard. The OL has been in an emergency-state for most of the season (No. 128 blown-block %).
These injuries contributed to a four-game losing streak that Cal snapped last game by beating one of the only teams in the FBS dealing with more injuries than they are: Oregon State.
Wake Forest plays at high tempo on offense, which could give the injury-depleted, jet-lagged visitors issues. Cal’s biggest defensive weakness is tackling (No. 69), which Wake will force them to do in space.
We do like the over on WF QB Hank Bachmeier’s interception prop. This probably seems contradictory to our side bet. We view it as a mini-hedge on a legitimate bet. Bachmeier has thrown an interception in five straight games (six total over that time). Bachmeier will be throwing into a strong Cal pass defense that ranks No. 6 in INT %.
Wake Forest has won three of four since a 1-3 start. Wake Forest was blown out by Ole Miss and Clemson – no shame in that – but were involved in games decided by four-points-or-less in all five other games against FBS opponents.
We see another tight game coming for Wake, one that isn’t decided until late. That would set us up for a cover, and also a gamescript that will keep Bachmeier throwing.
We think we have a decent shot at both bets. But if we’re wrong on the side, and Cal runs away with the game, it would almost assuredly be because Bachmeier threw at least one interception, mitigating our overall risk.
Thor’s Bet: Wake Forest +7 | QB Bachmeier Over 0.5 Interceptions
San Jose State at Oregon State
Adjusted Thor Line: SJSU -2.1
Speaking of the nation’s most injury-depleted team – let’s talk about Oregon State. The Beavers were decimated by portal defections over the offseason after they lost HC Jonathan Smith to Michigan State. They entered the fall with the third-lowest returning production of any FBS team.
The Beavers opened 4-1, beating an FCS team and three bottom-barrel G5 teams while losing to Wazzu. During that stretch, injuries started piling up on a roster that did not have the depth nor experience to weather them.
In particular, OSU’s defense – which returned only two players who started in the FBS last season to begin with – has been wiped out. In the blowout loss to Cal last time out, the Bears scored on nine of 10 possessions.
Oregon State’s defense now ranks No. 102 SP+, and things are getting worse – the unit has allowed 31-or-more points in four straight, and three of those games were against G5 teams.
The offense has been playing without RB Jam Griffin for a month now, the OL has dealt with multiple season-ending injuries, and there’s newfound uncertainty at QB after Gevani McCoy was benched against Cal and two other QBs were used.
OSU, as a team, has only one strength: running the ball. San Jose State has a strong run defense (No. 36 EPA/rush) to counteract that.
On the other side of the ball, it’s difficult to envision this languishing Oregon State defense forcing SJSU off the field. SJSU is one of the pass-happiest teams in the nation, and the attack generates plenty of big plays (No. 24 marginal explosiveness). Oregon State struggles against the pass (No. 96 EPA/dropback), and the Beavers give up too many big plays (No. 112 % of 20+ yard plays).
San Jose, 5-3, can achieve bowl eligibility in HC Ken Niumatalolo’s first season with an upset win. We expect the Spartans to do just that.
Thor’s Bet: San Jose State +3
Washington State vs. Utah State
Adjusted Thor Line: Wazzu -23.5
Utah State’s defense is unthinkably bad, ranking dead-last in the FBS in SP+. That defense has allowed 50-or-more points in three of four games, and 45-plus in four of five. It is unsightly against both the run and pass, and it coughs up big plays as generously as it rolls out the red carpet for efficiency.
Utah State has played only three offenses around the same quality as Washington State’s No. 29 SP+ attack – USC, Boise State, and Utah. In those three games, Utah State coughed up 49.3 PPG. That is a reasonable expectation for Wazzu’s output here.
Washington State runs at high-tempo, and its offense is equally adept at running and passing, thanks in large part to breakout dual-threat star QB John Mateer.
Utah State’s pass-happy offense has had its moments this fall. But after losing WR Jalen Royals – a Day 2 NFL Draft prospect – to a season-ending injury, the offense is devoid of starpower. It was a devastating injury to the offensive plans of one of the pass-happiest teams in the nation.
This matchup provides an opportunity for the 7-1 Cougars to flex their muscles, and we expect them to do so.
Thor’s Bet: Wazzu -20.5
Kansas vs. Iowa State
Adjusted Thor Line: ISU -0.6
Kansas is 2-6, while Iowa State is 7-1. But Kansas has been one of the unluckiest teams in the nation, while ISU has been one of the luckiest. By second-order wins, Iowa State has 5.9, while Kansas has 4.1. KU has played the slightly-tougher schedule.
Iowa State is in a deflate spot after getting upset 23-22 by Texas Tech last week. The previous week, ISU pulled out a game it should have lost, 38-35, against UCF.
The Cyclones are a run-heavy team that play at a below-average pace. They’ve now played in three games decided by three-points-or-less. The Jayhawks, for their part, have played in four decided by four-or-less.
This projects to be another close game. Despite a series of close losses that submarined the season early, the Jayhawks have clearly not stopped fighting. The past two games, KU has blown out Houston and suffered a last-minute 29-27 loss to Kansas State.
Kansas’ huge advantage in this matchup is its sterling rushing attack – led by prime NFL prospect RB Devin Neal – against Iowa State’s putrid run defense. The Jayhawks play at an even slower tempo than ISU, so the clock should be running most of this game.
The rallying cry around Kansas this week is that a longshot bowl berth is still possible by winning the last four games. While not likely, expect the Jayhawks – who came into the season regarded on the same plane as Iowa State – to come out with a throw-the-kitchen-sink-at-them effort.
Thor’s Bet: Kansas +3
Duke at NC State
Adjusted Thor Line: NC State -1.7
Duke has dropped three-of-four, while NC State has won two straight, including a 59-28 beatdown of Stanford last week. Recency bias is giving us a little line value on the Blue Devils.
Last week, NC State caught Stanford in a primo situational spot – the Cardinal, playing in their seventh-straight week without a bye, traveled cross-country to take their sixth-straight loss. The game before that, NC State snuck by Cal by one point. Duke, on the other hand, covered each of their last two SU losses, including a one-point loss to SMU.
Duke matches up well in this game. Duke’s biggest strength, as a team, is a pass defense that ranks No. 20 EPA/dropback and a pass-rush that ranks No. 23 in sacks/dropback.
NC State has a pass-leaning offense with an inexperienced QB (CJ Bailey) following the medical retirement of Grayson McCall. The Wolf Pack struggle to keep the pocket clean, ranking No. 79 in sacks/dropback.
Bailey hasn’t been bad this season, but he’s still very clearly developing his pocket awareness and feel for the rush. His 26.3% pressure-to-sack ratio is a bit troubling considering this week’s blitz-happy opponent.
Thor’s Bet: Duke +3.5
UCF at Arizona State
Adjusted Thor Line: Pick ‘em
After losing five-straight games, UCF let off some steam by destroying Arizona 56-12 last week. That game followed a week of change for the UCF offense – the OC was fired, and a new starting QB was named (Dylan Rizk).
Rizk, a three-star redshirt freshman, looked great in his first career start. In only 36 attempts, he’s already posted a 4/0 TD/INT rate. KJ Jefferson and Jacurri Brown, the UCF QBs who came before him, had combined for an 8/8 TD/INT rate.
Any threat of passing keeps defenses off RB RJ Harvey and one of the nation’s deadliest rushing attacks (No. 5 success rate, No. 10 EPA/run). UCF should have success on the ground here against an Arizona State defense that ranks No. 56 EPA/run. Especially since ASU starting LB Keyshaun Elliott has been announced out due to a neck stinger.
On the other side of the ball, much of Arizona State’s offense is funneled through RB Cam Skattebo. Skattebo has already crossed 1,000 yards on the ground, and he’s the team’s second-leading receiver (with more than double the yardage of the next-highest receiver).
But Skattebo has been listed as doubtful for this game – he’s out barring an unexpected late-week reversal in fortunes. ASU has been efficient (No. 10 success rate), but not explosive (No. 98 marginal explosiveness). It’s the type of offense that UCF’s one-sided defense is projected to excel in – even if Skattebo was playing.
UCF is very good against the run, ranking No. 15 in yards per rush and No. 18 in stuff rate. The defensive line ranks No. 29 in havoc rate. Where UCF’s defense struggles is against the pass.
But Arizona State’s passing attack is, by and large, a glorified extension of its running game. ASU ranks No. 1 in % of receptions out of the backfield, and No. 104 or lower in passes to the TE, slot WR, and boundary WRs. ASU is not equipped to pick on UCF’s Achilles Heel of a secondary.
Thor’s Bet: UCF +3
Cincinnati vs. WVU
We close out the column with a correlated prop angle in the Cincinnati-West Virginia game.
West Virginia has an extreme pass-funnel defense. The Mountaineers are very good at stopping the run (No. 23 EPA/run), but downright horrid against the pass (dead-last in the FBS in EPA/dropback!).
Cincinnati’s rock-solid passing game – No. 8 success rate, No. 20 EPA/dropback – is going to have a field day. And the Bearcats’ poor defense should cough up enough points to keep the gamescript from flipping against us. Cincinnati is favored by -4.
Cincy has played in three games this year decided by single-digits – UCF, Texas Tech, and Pitt. In those three games, Sorsby averaged 321.6 YPG passing.
Henderson, Sorsby’s top target, tends to come along for the ride when Cincinnati's passing game is popping off. In the aforementioned three single-digit games, Henderson averaged 77.0 YPG receiving.
Thor’s bets: QB Sorsby Over 256.5 Passing Yards | WR Henderson Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
