This week's best bets include a big Texas win, a discrepancy in the UCLA/USC line, some faith in floundering Utah… and more. Plus we have a Colorado/Kansas bet!
A quick note before we begin: because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets early and immediately – as they happen – into our college football free bet tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move. Also, I rank all 134 FBS teams weekly — if you're here, you're probably going to enjoy that, as well (we have strength of schedule and projected wins, too!).
“Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full college football game model based on my projections.
Onto the picks!
Texas vs. Kentucky
Adjusted Thor Line: Texas -22.5
Kentucky’s bye week and subsequent game against FCS Murray State both came at seemingly opportune times, as the Wildcats are one of the nation’s most injury-ravaged teams. But the Wildcats remain a MASH unit heading into this road trip to Austin.
Most recently, Kentucky announced that starting ILB D’Eryk Johnson is out for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury. The Wildcats were already playing without defensive starters DT Deone Walker, ILB Jason Dumas-Johnson, and OLB JJ Weaver. Walker will likely go in Round 1 in April. And we have an entire section dedicated to the draft here.
With multiple other injuries along the defensive front, and an LB corps that has been wiped out, a previously strong front-seven has been neutered. Depth is scarce.
These injuries have destroyed Kentucky’s defense, a long-time strength for HC Mark Stoops’ team. Kentucky’s defense ranks No. 104 success rate and No. 107 in % of 20+ yard plays. This is really bad news in advance of a date with the Longhorns’ powerful offense.
Kentucky’s offense did finally get RB Chip Trayanum back for Murray State – he had eight carries for 42 yards after battling injuries for most of the campaign. But WR Barion Brown missed that game, a huge shot for an uninspiring WR room.
UK’s offensive line is healthy, but that unit has struggled all year. The way to beat Texas is by dominating in the trenches. The Wildcats will not be doing that on Saturday.
Kentucky will be playing from behind for most of the day. Even at full-strength, this was not a team equipped to do that. In neutral game-scripts, the offense is a slow-moving, run-heavy, vanilla scheme.
Turnovers have been a problem for Kentucky – the Wildcats have already thrown 11 interceptions. Texas’ improved pass defense is likely to flip the field a few times on Saturday.
Kentucky limps in to a game it matches up poorly in, close to packing it in at 4-6.. And the favored Longhorns could use style points for the CFP Committee in their second-to-last regular season game.
Thor’s Bet: Texas -20
UCLA vs. USC
Adjusted Thor Line: USC -8.5
The Trojans’ offensive arrow is pointing up now that QB Jayden Maiava has been swapped in for Miller Moss behind center. A freshman sensation for UNLV last year, Maiava went 25-for-35 for 259, three TDs, and an interception in last week’s win over Nebraska.
A slippery athlete, Maiava added 20 yards and a TD on the ground while only getting sacked once. He’s a huge upgrade over Moss in the mobility department, and Maiava will likely prove to be a bit of an upgrade as a passer as well.
HC Lincoln Riley has traditionally coached dual-threat quarterbacks. Miller Moss was decidedly not one of those, while Maiava appears to be a good fit for the system.
I think Maiava and company have a huge game against this bad UCLA defense. In particular, the Bruins’ pass defense gives up yards in bunches. UCLA is No. 125 in success rate, and No. 123 completion % against.
If the Trojans indeed are able to ring up touchdowns, UCLA is going to be in big trouble. The Bruins’ No. 100 SP+ offense has been an issue all season. It has only surpassed 20 points in two games – against Rutgers and Nebraska. Terrible offensive line play for UCLA has made life difficult for both the passing and running games.
This is a must-win game for USC. The Trojans, 5-5, are backed up against a wall. Next week, Notre Dame is on the schedule. If USC wants to qualify for a bowl game, there’s no other choice – they must beat UCLA. We expect them to do so.
Thor’s Bet: USC -4.5
Utah vs. Iowa State
Adjusted Thor Line: ISU -2.9
Utah has gotten a huge market correction during its current five-game losing streak. I believe this line – laying near a touchdown at home to Iowa State – has gone a bit too far.
Utah got whipped by Colorado last week, 49-24. That was the Buffs’ fourth-straight win by double-digits. Prior to that, Utah had lost four-straight games by one possession.
Utah’s offense has been the issue this fall. After QB Cam Rising went down, true freshman QB Isaac Wilson was forced into action early. Wilson, the brother of Zach Wilson, was a four-star recruit in the last cycle.
Wilson was questionable last week heading into the Colorado game with illness. He played through it, going 21-for-40 for 236 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. The game-script flipped against Utah early – Colorado led 21-9 at halftime – forcing the Utes out of their comfort zone.
What Utah wants to do is pound the ball on the ground. That is going to be a viable strategy in this matchup, because Iowa State’s run defense stinks. The Cyclones rank No. 107 success rate and No. 113 in yards per carry allowed (sacks omitted).
Meanwhile, Utah’s superb defense, which ranks No. 13 SP+, will have the upper-hand in the matchup against Iowa State’s No. 44 SP+ offense. Iowa State has a lethargic rushing offense that it will at times abandon. The passing attack has been solid, but Utah’s pass defense – No. 14 EPA/dropback – should be able to battle it to a draw after ISU turns one-handed.
The concern with backing Utah is that Wilson will compound mistakes that the Utes aren’t able to overcome. But with such a clear path to ground success in this game – opponents are advised to avoid ISU’s stellar pass defense, as is – and a defense likely to give ISU issues, Utah should be able to play the way it wants.
The Cyclones, losers of two-of-three, haven't looked like a good team in over a month now. It’s a tough ask for Iowa State to go on the road into altitude and beat a well-coached team with a top-20 national defense.
Thor’s Bet: Utah +6.5
Appalachian State vs. James Madison
Adjusted Thor Line: JMU -11.5
James Madison needs to win its last two games and have Georgia Southern lose one of its last two – GSU is an underdog this week to Coastal Carolina – in order to reach the Sun Belt title game.
We think the motivated Dukes match up very well in this game. Appalachian State has the worst run defense we have observed in the FBS this year. Appy is No. 133 in success rate and No. 129 in EPA/run. James Madison has a balanced offense with a very good ground game. The Dukes rank No. 12 in success rate. JMU can name their rushing output in this game.
On the other side of the ball, Appalachian State’s pass-happy, mistake-prone offense is likely to struggle against James Madison’s elite pass defense. The Dukes rank No. 4 in success rate, No. 4 in EPA/dropback, and No. 6 in interception rate.
We like the Dukes to win by double-digits.
Thor’s Bet: James Madison -6.5
Utah State vs. San Diego State
Adjusted Thor Line: SDSU -0.2
Utah State is inflated in the market right now because the Aggies blew out Hawaii in a snowstorm last week. Hawaii entered the game as slight favorites, but the snow flurries discombobulated the visitors not accustomed to the conditions. The Rainbow Warriors threw five interceptions.
That is a result you can throw out the window. Prior to that, Utah State was 1-7 over their last eight. USU was outplayed in the game it won – 27-25 versus Wyoming – finishing with a 33% postgame win expectancy.
Utah State throws at a top-15 frequency rate. San Diego State’s pass defense is better than its run defense, and the Aztecs have been very good at taking away explosive plays in this phase. Utah State will have to methodically work down the field with more plays. USU QB Spencer Petras, who has thrown 10 interceptions, is likely to add to that total on Saturday.
San Diego State’s offense remains a work in progress under first-year HC Sean Lewis. SDSU is playing at hyper-tempo (No. 13), a staple of Lewis’ system going back years. The offense is balanced from a play-calling perspective. The unit’s standout is RB Marquez Cooper, who has already topped 1,000 rushing yards. The passing game, directed by true freshman QB Danny O’Neil, comes and goes.
What the Aztecs’ offense has done very well is maintain the tempo while taking care of the ball. SDSU ranks No. 21 in turnovers. When SDSU plays solid defenses that have depth, the effect of the tempo is neutralized, the run game gets slowed, and the Aztecs find themselves in the type of third-and-longs situations it doesn’t want O’Neill in.
No team has faced more third-and-longs by percentage than SDSU – a compound effect of the offense taking care of the ball with a risk-averse style with a true freshman behind center.
But in this game, SDSU isn’t likely to be in many third-and-long situations. Because it is facing a Utah State defense that ranks second-to-last in SP+. Not only that, but the Aggies are No. 127 in third-and-longs forced.
We like this matchup for SDSU, we like the situational spot – with Utah State in a deflate spot after the brightest moment of their season – and our system believes we’re getting four points of line value on the Aztecs.
Thor’s Bet: San Diego State +4.5
Kennesaw State vs. Florida International
Adjusted Thor Line: FIU -3.1
It has been a weird inaugural FBS season for Kennesaw State. The Owls started 0-6. Then, Kennesaw pulled one of the season’s most shocking upsets, beating Liberty as 27.5-point underdogs. Two weeks later, Kennesaw forced double overtime at UTEP before falling.
The next day, Kennesaw’s administration announced HC Brian Bohannon had stepped down. Hours later, Bohannon tweeted that he hadn’t resigned, but rather been fired. Five contributors left the team and entered the portal. The fanbase was upset.
In its first game after that, a home game against 7-2 Sam Houston last week, Bohannon was amongst a throng of fans that high-fived players on their way into the stadium. Kennesaw gave Sam Houston everything it could handle, but eventually lost its second-straight game in overtime (23-17).
For all the weirdness around the program, for all the controversy surrounding the Bohannon decision, and through the player defections, one thing is abundantly clear about Kennesaw: The team is still playing hard, and, over the past month, has played easily its best ball of the season.
This week, Kennesaw hosts 3-7 FIU. Kennesaw has a heavily run-slanted offense. FIU has a very good pass defense, but a shoddy run defense (No. 107 EPA/run). We can see Kennesaw grinding out yards in this matchup. On the other side of the ball, Kennesaw’s No. 116 SP+ defense should battle FIU’s No. 115 SP+ offense to a draw.
FIU’s offensive issues are a big reason that most of its games against similarly-talented programs end close. In FIU’s last six games, five have been decided by single digits. We see another close game coming here, and are happy to grab the points with the home ‘dog.
Thor’s Bet: Kennesaw State +9.5
UTSA vs. Temple
Adjusted Thor Line: UTSA -11.8
Temple fired HC Stan Drayton earlier this week, one day after beating FAU to improve to 3-7. So far this season, teams are 4-0 ATS the game after firing their HC.
Temple also recently returned to full strength. The Owls’ best offensive player, WR Dante Wright, returned to the field after missing a month-plus with injury. Wright immediately made an enormous impact, catching 14 balls on 19 targets for 147 yards.
Wright’s presence will be key in this matchup. UTSA’s defense is good against the run (No. 11 EPA/run), but bad against the pass (No. 82 EPA/dropback). Wright and QB Evan Simon should both have big days against the Roadrunners.
When UTSA has the ball, it is passing. That’s good news for Temple, too. The Owls stink against the run (No. 117 EPA/run), but have a decent pass defense (No. 64 success rate and No. 75 EPA/dropback).
Thor’s Bet: Temple +16.5
Kansas vs. Colorado
Adjusted Thor Line: Kansas -2.6
We’ve been riding Kansas and cashing in on the Jayhawks' late-season resurgence the past few weeks, and we’re going to do it again. This is the same line – Kansas +2.5 – that the books offered last week when KU upset BYU on the road.
This time, Colorado comes to town for a game that’ll be played in front of a packed house at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas’ on-campus stadium is being renovated this fall). A high-profile game being played in an NFL venue – no doubt seen by Colorado both as another step toward the Big 12 title game and a possible CFP first-round bye. And also an opportunity to bolster Travis Hunter’s Heisman candidacy and Shedeur Sanders’ draft stock.
But Kansas now has something to play for, too: After upsetting Iowa State and BYU in consecutive weeks, the Jayhawks, standing at 4-6, have a shot to rally into a bowl if they can beat CU and then Baylor next weekend.
Kansas’ rise has not been a fluke. During the Jayhawks’ 2-6 start, Kansas lost five games by six points or less. Seen as a preseason Big 12 contender, KU’s roster is chalk-full of veterans.
The Jayhawks are finally figuring it out – not committing back-breaking turnovers at the end of close games, and in overall gameplay on both sides of the ball. In the first six games, KU underperformed SP+’s offensive projections in each game, and underperformed its defensive projections in five-of-six. Since the mid-October bye, Kansas outperformed SP+’s offensive projections by 9.5-or-more points each time, and outperformed its defensive projections in three-of-four.
Kansas’ No. 30 SP+ offense leans towards a very strong running game led by RB Devin Neal. The passing game has been solid when it isn’t turning the ball over. QB Jalon Daniels threw eight interceptions in the first five games. He’s only thrown two in the last five. Neal should have a strong game, here.
On the other side of the ball, Colorado’s pass-happy attack is going to move the ball. But while Kansas’ pass defense sits only No. 82 EPA/pass, it has been better the past four games since the bye. And because Kansas has a pair of future NFL CBs in Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant, the Jayhawks have been able to crowd the catch point. Kansas is tied for No. 17 in interceptions, and the DBs rank No. 33 in havoc.
Our system favors Kansas, and like the Jayhawks to win this game. That is going to keep Colorado passing throughout the game. Because of that, and because of the constitution of the KU defense, we’re also jumping in on Shedeur Sanders’ prop to throw an interception at near even-money.
Sanders has only thrown 10 interceptions over 21 FBS games. However, five of those interceptions have come in the last six games. Colorado is incentivized to throw in this game, the Buffs’ default prerogative, and Sanders won’t be able to play conservatively if KU is as competitive as we think they’re going to be.
Thor’s Bets: Kansas +2.5 | Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders Over 0.5 Interceptions
Florida vs. Ole Miss
Florida WR Elijah Badger missed the Texas game. I want to give you a breakdown of the other nine games he’s played in this year with one variable.
Badger's receiving line in the five games where QB DJ Lagway attempted 13 passes or more: 19/526/2. That’s an average per game of roughly four catches for 105 yards per game.
Badger receiving line in the four games Lagway attempted fewer than 13 passes: 11/165/1. That’s an average of roughly three catches for 41 yards per game.
It’s clear that Lagway loves Badger. And with target-hound WR Eugene Wilson III out for the season, and depth at the position thin, there’s no reason for Lagway not to target Badger to his heart’s content.
Thor’s Bet: Florida WR Elijah Badger Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
