The holiday weekend is here, and my best bets include a bunch of Boise State/Oregon State props, some insight into a Minnesota RB, a Jacksonville State oversight… and more.
A quick note before we begin: because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets early and immediately – as they happen – into our college football free bet tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move. Also, I rank all 134 FBS teams weekly — if you're here, you're probably going to enjoy that, as well (we have strength of schedule and projected wins, too!).
“Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full college football game model based on my projections.
Onto the picks!
Friday CFB Games
Boise State vs. Oregon State
The model says: Boise -21.5
Boise State struggled to put away Wyoming on Saturday night, trailing until a Broncos touchdown with five minutes left gave us the game’s final score of 17-13.
RB Ashton Jeanty rushed for 169 yards and a touchdown. Jeanty missed one second-half drive while being tended to in the medical tent with an apparent lower-body injury. “He’s going to be just fine,” HC Spencer Danielson said.
With that being the case, it’s difficult to envision Oregon State stopping Boise State on Friday. The Beavers have one of the FBS’ worst run defenses, ranking No. 126 in success rate and No. 118 in EPA/run. Jeanty is going to have a field day.
Oregon State had lost five-straight games before sneaking by Washington State 41-38 last week. But that was a fluky final score, with the Beavers finishing with just a 26% postgame win expectancy.
Oregon State QB Ben Gulbranson made his return to action in that game and draws his third start of November here. Gulbranson’s presence has changed Oregon State’s previous run-first tendencies.
Earlier this month, Gulbranson threw for 292 yards in a loss to San Jose State and 294 yards in an upset win over Wazzu. In those two games, Trent Walker posted 11 catches for 151 yards (San Jose State) and 12 catches for 136 yards (Wazzu). We like the over on both players in the prop market.
Boise State’s defense is far better against the run (No. 20 EPA/run) than the pass (No. 84 EPA/dropback). With gamescript concerns for Oregon State’s running game if this one gets out of hand, we’re also fading Beavers RB Anthony Hankerson’s 80.5 rushing yardage number.
The Mountain West title game is on deck, but the Broncos cannot afford to overlook Oregon State. We expect an emphatic blowout win.
Thor’s bets: Boise State -18.5 | Oregon State QB Ben Gulbranson Over 189.5 Passing Yards | Oregon State RB Anthony Hankerson Under 80.5 Rushing Yards | Oregon State WR Trent Walker Over 71.5 Receiving Yards
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
Minnesota RB Darius Taylor has appeared in 10 games this season. In each of the first eight, Taylor was targeted four times or more. He had a nine-catch game and a 10-catch game. During that stretch, Taylor had an aDOT of positive yardage every game, and over 1.2 yards in five-of-eight.
But the past two games, Taylor was only targeted a total of five times. Despite making all five catches, he had only five total receiving yards. Taylor’s aDOT in both games was exactly -3.0.
Last week, Taylor was on the field for 12 routes, his second-lowest total of the season. Taylor ran 22-or-more routes in all five games before that. His receiving usage has dissipated, and the way the Gophers use Taylor as a receiver has changed. He’s no longer running routes – he’s a dump-off guy when he’s on the field on passing downs.
And I have a theory as to why. In practices over the past month, Minnesota has been getting star true freshman S Koi Perich snaps as a receiving back. Perich, the most talented athlete on the team, believes he can contribute to the offense.
The Gophers staff, which needs to stave off portal poachers and keep Perich in town, have every incentive to keep Koi happy. When Perich is on the field, the Gophers are looking to throw him the ball.
Perich has played two snaps apiece in each of the last two games – one was nullified by penalty – each time drawing a receiving target on one snap and being a decoy on a run play on the other. I’m told to expect Perich in the passing game again on Friday.
Taylor is being used more heavily as a runner, while he’s been phased out of a featured role in the passing game. Taylor has had 15-or-more carries in five-of-six games after failing to get over that threshold in his first four.
Minnesota is going to want to mercilessly test Wisconsin’s shoddy run defense (No. 96), while staying away from the Badgers solid pass defense (No. 38) as much as possible. That gameplan would lean in the direction the Gophers were already headed, which is primarily isolating Taylor’s energy to carrying the rock.
For these reasons, we lean the over on Taylor’s 67.5 rushing yards. But our favorite prop in this one is the under on Taylor’s 24.5 receiving yards.
Thor’s bet: Minnesota RB Darius Taylor Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (At Wisko)
Colorado vs. Oklahoma State
The model says: Colorado -13.4
The Big 12 has turned into a colossal mess. Four teams – Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State – are tied atop the conference at 6-2. But another five – Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, and West Virginia – are right behind at 5-3.
Per the Big 12, all nine of those teams could still qualify for the Big 12 championship game – depending on what happens this weekend. If we get chalk this weekend, it’ll be Arizona State-BYU in the Big 12 title game. If all four 6-2 teams win, it’ll be Arizona State-Iowa State.
Colorado remains alive, but the Buffaloes’ chances of reaching the B12 championship took an enormous shot in the upset loss to Kansas on Saturday. The only way Colorado can clinch without a tiebreaker being invoked is to win and have both BYU and Iowa State lose.
Long story short: Colorado doesn’t need to win this game by margin, it just needs to win. And it’ll have divided attention on Saturday coming off last week’s letdown.
The Buffaloes will play without WR Jimmy Horn Jr. again. Horn is a solid receiver who’ll get an NFL look. But this is the one position Colorado can sustain an injury without much dropoff, blessed with a deep stable of talented pass catchers.
Oklahoma State lost 56-48 to Texas Tech over the weekend. But the Pokes soundly outplayed the Red Raiders, finishing with a 97% postgame win expectancy. True freshmen QB Maealiuaki Smith gave the offense a much-needed shot-in-the-arm, replacing the benched vet QB Alan Bowman.
Not only did Smith throw for 326 yards on 26-of-36 passing, but RB Ollie Gordon had 186 yards from scrimmage and three TD. No surprise that the return of Okie State’s passing game opened up spacing for Gordon on the ground.
Will Saturday be Gordon’s final collegiate game? The junior could declare for the draft. But after a disappointing season, he may opt to return to college. Either way, Gordon is 130 yards away from his second-consecutive 1,000-yard season and would seem to be motivated to have another big game. We’re happy to go over his 77.5 rushing yardage total in the prop market.
We’re also going over on Brennan Presley’s 6.5 receptions. Colorado nickel defender Preston Hodge has been lit up for 43 catches and 532 yards. Teams do not like to throw at CB Travis Hunter.
They’ve found the guy they pick on in Hodge. Expect OSU QB Smith, the true freshmen making his second start, to frequently target Presley on quick-hitting concepts. Last week, Presley was targeted 13 times on a microscopic 4.2 aDOT – he finished with 10 catches.
Thor’s bets: Okie State +16.5 | OSU RB Ollie Gordon Over 77.5 Rushing Yards | OSU WR Brennan Presley Over 6.5 Receptions
Saturday CFB Games
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State
The model says: Jax State -2.6
Western Kentucky has lost two-straight, a surprising 12-7 upset loss to Louisiana Tech, and a 38-21 loss to Liberty last week. This matchup doesn’t set up well for the Hilltoppers to turn things around this week.
WKU has a really good pass defense (No. 15 success rate and No. 53 EPA/dropback). But WKU’s run defense stinks (No. 111 success rate and No. 100 yards per rush with sacks omitted).
That’s a bad recipe against Jacksonville State’s offense. The Gamecocks have one of the G5’s best rushing offenses, and it is relentless. The Gamecocks are No. 4 in standard downs rush rate and No. 5 EPA/run.
WKU’s Air Raid will gets its yards against a mediocre Jacksonville State pass defense, but the Gamecocks are top-25 in turnovers forced and interception % and feel like a good bet to flip the field on a WKU offense that throws too many interceptions.
There is a thought that Jacksonville State won’t be motivated for this game because they’ve already clinched homefield in the CUSA title game.
But Liberty clinches the second berth if it can beat Sam Houston on Friday. If that happens, it would render this game completely meaningless for both sides. Beyond that, WKU got waxed last week by Liberty where WKU had all the motivation in the world to win.
Thor’s bet: Jax State +2.5
Arkansas State vs. Old Dominion
The model says: ODU -0.6
Arkansas State has won four-of-five to improve to 7-4. HC Butch Jones’ group has taken another step forward after last year’s breakthrough 6-7 season ended with a bowl berth. Old Dominion has frittered away its postseason chances by losing three-straight games to fall to 4-7.
ODU tends to play in close games. Nine-of-11 games for ODU have been decided by 10-points-or-less. ODU is 3-6 in those games. Conversely, Arkansas State is 6-0 in one-possession games. This is the reason ODU is favored in this game – the perception that they’ve been unlucky, while Arkansas State has been one of the nation’s luckiest teams.
That may be true, but Arkansas State is the home team, and they’re also the more motivated team, with their season continuing on after Saturday. In a game between two Sun Belt teams that almost every week find themselves in a one-score game, we’ll take 4.5 points with the home team every time.
Thor’s bet: Arky State +4.5
Louisiana Tech vs. Kennesaw State
The model says: LTU -7.2
Kennesaw started the season 1-5 ATS but has been on a quiet heater at the window ever since.
Kennesaw is 4-1 ATS in its last five. The game before that, a 14-5 loss to MTSU, Kennesaw (+8.5) failed to cover by a half-point. This is going all the way back to October 15.
While Kennesaw is competing hard down the stretch, Louisiana Tech may be in a letdown spot after being eliminated from bowl season. After last week’s 35-14 loss to Arkansas, LTU dropped to 4-7.
Kennesaw’s strategy is very straightforward: On offense, it’s simply looking to grind towards the sticks on the ground. The Owls play slow and bleed the clock. The defense isn’t talented, but it tackles well and keeps the ball in front of it. The team plays solid special teams, and it avoids penalties.
Louisiana Tech has only scored more than 21 points in two-of-10 games against FBS opponents. The offense is wildly inefficient (No. 130 marginal efficiency) and terrible in the red zone (No. 129 points per scoring opportunity). LTU’s defense will be the best unit on the field. But the Bulldogs’ shoddy special teams unit could end up costing LTU points in this matchup.
We see another close game coming here – a one-possession affair. We’re happy to ride with Kennesaw with this many points on the table.
Thor’s bet: Kennesaw State +12.5
USC vs. Notre Dame
The model says: ND -4
Notre Dame will clinch a spot in the CFP with a win. Margin does not matter for the Fighting Irish. They simply need to win.
In lieu of those circumstances, this line feels rich – our system believes we’re getting three points of line value. Notre Dame, a team with an efficient-but-explosive offense, is traveling back three time zones for this game.
Notre Dame’s pass defense has been elite in 2024. The Irish's run defense, however, has areas that can be exploited. We expect USC’s running game to have a strong showing.
Meanwhile, USC’s run defense has improved enough that we don’t see ND RB Jeremiyah Love going thermonuclear again, as he did last week against Army.
As a final bit of insurance, this number opens up the possibility of a late backdoor cover or push if USC finds itself down by between 10-14 points in the waning minutes.
Thor’s bet: USC +7
Cincinnati vs. TCU
The model says: Cincy -2.6
As we speak, TCU technically is not dead in the Big 12 title hunt. But the Frogs almost assuredly will be by the time this game kicks at 6p EST on Saturday evening.
Prior to that, the Oklahoma State-Colorado, Kansas-Baylor, West Virginia-Texas Tech, and Arizona-Arizona State games will have been played (Kansas State-Iowa State will kick off around halftime, while BYU-Houston has a late-night kick).
Wins by Colorado and Arizona State would eliminate TCU. If one of those teams loses, tiebreaker scenarios could have already locked TCU out. At present time, TCU appears to have the slimmest path of the nine teams alive to reach the Big 12 title game. It’s such a convoluted, low-probability outcome that it’s not worth your time to delve into.
On the other side, Cincinnati has been eliminated from the title hunt, but the 5-7 Bearcats still have everything to play for. After going 3-9 in HC Scott Satterfield’s first season, it would be a nice proof-of-concept to achieve bowl eligibility in Year 2.
I like how the Bearcats match up. TCU, with its base five-DB alignment, has a strong pass defense. But the Horned Frogs’ light front has been ripped by the run all season. TCU ranks No. 109 EPA/run. This sets up to be a big day for Cincy RB Corey Kiner, who has already surpassed 1,000-yards rushing.
Our system believes the wrong team is favored. We think Cincinnati will punch its bowl ticket by “upsetting” TCU.
Thor’s bet: Cincy +2.5
Boston College vs. Pittsburgh
The model says: Pitt -1.7
Pittsburgh started 7-0, but has been reeling with four-straight losses since. Four of those losses came to top-20 caliber teams – SMU, Clemson, and Louisville. This matchup provides an ideal get-right opportunity for the Panthers in advance of bowl season.
Pitt has become one of the nation’s pass-happiest teams. You have to shut down that passing game to beat Pitt. If you can, the Panthers lose their bite real quick.
Boston College is not equipped to do that. The Eagles’ pass defense ranks No. 102 in success rate, No. 72 in yards/dropback, and No. 95 in adjusted completion rate.
Meanwhile, BC has been an extreme run-heavy team in HC Bill O’Brien’s first season. Pitt’s pass defense is suspect, but the Panthers have an awesome run defense – No. 25 EPA/run and No. 10 yards per carry with sacks omitted.
Both of these teams have already achieved bowl eligibility, so there’s no extra motivational factor on either side. Pitt’s struggles over the past month has the market lining up to fade them. But I think this is the perfect opportunity to fade conventional wisdom and hop in. My system believes the Panthers should be favored, and the on-field handicap would agree.
Thor’s bet: Pitt +3.5
