Below are my best bets for this weekend in college football Week 4, a mix of picks on the spread and player props.
Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately – as they happen – into our college football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.
Note: “ATL” below stands for “Adjusted Thor Line” – my system’s spread. If you want a deeper dive into my system, we have a full college football game model based on my projections.
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Onto the picks!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR WEEK 4
Appalachian State vs. South Alabama Pick
Appalachian State (-7) vs. South Alabama | Thursday
Adjusted Thor Line: Appy State -9.1
Appalachian State, the preseason betting favorite to win the Sun Belt, improved to 2-1 with a solid road win at ECU. But the market is still penalizing the Mountaineers for the 66-20 whipping they took from an angry Clemson squad the week after the Tigers were humbled by Georgia.
On the other side, the market appears to be giving South Alabama a bit too much residual credit for dropping 87 points on Northwestern State last Thursday. Northwestern State is one of the FCS’ worst teams. Prior to that, South Alabama did not play well in losses to North Texas and Ohio.
South Alabama lost a metric ton of talent over the offseason. The Jags also took a big hit in coaching quality when Kane Wommack left and Major Applewhite was installed to replace him.
South Alabama now plays at hyper tempo. And while they’re going to score, Appalachian State might be able to name its score against South Alabama’s rancid defense. This game could resemble South Alabama’s 52-28 loss to North Texas earlier this season.
The pick: Appalachian State -7
Appalachian State vs. South Alabama Player Prop Pick
Appy State QB Joey Aguilar: 293.5 Passing Yards vs. South Alabama | Thursday
South Alabama’s pass defense is one of the nation’s three-worst. Appalachian State’s passing offense is top-50 in explosiveness. This sets up to be a huge game for Aguilar, who threw for 424 yards in the win over ECU. ECU’s pass defense is significantly better than South Alabama’s.
Since I locked this bet in earlier this week on Fantasy Life’s bet tracker, Aguilar’s number has skyrocketed to between 302.5-313.5 passing yards at the sportsbooks. I obviously prefer my number – a good reminder to check the tracker throughout the week for my bets in real time to beat that kind of line movement – but I can still advocate for an over at current numbers.
I also bet a half-unit on Aguilar over 2.5 TD passes at +126 odds. That number is juiced because Aguilar is averaging 1.7 TD passes per game through three games in 2024.
However, Aguilar went over that number (3+ TD passes) in eight-of-12 regular season games last year. And he’s now facing one of the nation’s very-worst pass defenses in a game with the third-highest total on the college football board this week.
The pick: Appy State QB Joey Aguilar Over 293.5 Passing Yards
Stanford vs. Syracuse Player Prop Pick
Stanford QB Ashton Daniels: 33.5 Rushing Yards (At Syracuse) | Friday
Daniels has gone over this number in each of the first two games – averaging 59 rushing YPG – and four-of-seven to end last season. The three games he didn’t (UCLA, Wazzu, Notre Dame) were all against teams with strong pass-rushes.
Syracuse doesn’t have one of those. The Orange rank No. 81 in sacks per dropback. More importantly, Syracuse has a terrible rushing defense – No. 117 or worse in success rate, YPC allowed, EPA/run, opportunity rate, and yards before contact per attempt.
Over their first two games, the Orange are allowing 53.5 rushing YPG to opposing quarterbacks. Not only is Syracuse susceptible to dual-threat quarterbacks, but this is a gamescript that points heavily towards Stanford manufacturing yards through Daniels in any way necessary, with Syracuse an 8.5-point favorite and a total set at 57.5.
In those ways, it is reminiscent of Stanford’s 34-27 loss to TCU in the opener, when Daniels ran for 87 yards against a defense that was similarly susceptible to coughing up ground yardage.
The pick: Stanford QB Daniels Over 33.5 rushing yards
Michigan Vs. USC Pick
Michigan (+6.5) vs. USC
ATL: Mich -0.9
USC comes in off an early-season bye. The Trojans have played one opponent of substance this year, beating LSU 27-20 in Las Vegas in the opener.
Michigan hasn’t had an impressive start. The Wolverines are 2-1, but 0-3 ATS. Michigan was pummeled by the only quality opponent it has played – the 31-12 home loss to Texas in Week 2.
All of that said, this line appears to be a market overreaction. Our system believes that Michigan should be the slight favorite.
The Trojans have had success running through the first two games. That likely ends here against Michigan’s superb rush defense. The concern, for Michigan backers, is that USC has its way through the air with Michigan like we saw Texas do.
The Trojans are coming across the country in its Big 10 debut. The Trojans matched up well with LSU because LSU’s pass defense is horrific. Michigan’s pass defense has underwhelmed, but is still solidly middle-of-the-road in the advanced metrics (and very probably better than that).
Michigan should be able to run on USC. USC’s overall run defense numbers look strong right now, but they’ve played two opponents who wanted to throw. This is a different kind of test, and one that could expose flaws in a USC run defense that currently ranks No. 112 in yards allowed before contact per attempt.
I’m expecting the best Michigan offense we’ve seen so far this season, if simply by virtue of the benching QB Davis Warren for Alex Orji. It was stunning that Warren was given the job over Orji out of camp. Wolverines coaches have acknowledged their error in belatedly handing Orji the gig.
Orji is a very gifted runner who is going to make Michigan’s run game more dynamic. He’s unproven and raw as a passer, but he can’t be worse than Warren, who owns a 2/6 TD/INT rate. (In limited attempts this year, Orji has a 2/0 TD/INT rate).
Michigan is looking itself in the mirror this week. I think we see a different team on Saturday. I also purchased a Michigan moneyline ticket on Sunday at nearly 2-to-1 odds. I think the Wolverines are live.
The pick: Michigan +6.5
Michigan Vs. USC Player Prop Pick
Michigan RB Donovan Edwards: 10.5 Receiving Yards (Vs. USC)
This one might seem odd at first glance in that Edwards has four catches for 13 yards and a TD through the first three games.
But we’re expecting Michigan QB Alex Orji, who takes over for the benched Davis Warren, to be risk-averse through the air, with safe passes close to the line of scrimmage. And with Michigan TE Colston Loveland questionable with an upper-body injury, Edwards’ targets could be on the rise in this get-the-ball-out-quickly-and-safely passing environment.
Any targets are good targets against a USC pass defense that ranks No. 128 in success rate and No. 130 in completion rate allowed.
The pick: RB Edwards Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech Pick
Rutgers (+4.5) at Virginia Tech
ATL: VT -1.9
Our Power Rankings have these teams ranked beside each other with Rutgers at No. 36 and Virginia Tech at No. 37. By the numbers, they also have extremely-similar tree-top analytical profiles.
Both can run the ball. Both have very good pass defenses. And each struggles to stop the run. Rutgers has been more efficient and less turnover-prone in the passing game, albeit by design at a lower volume.
Rutgers also comes into this game off a bye.
Long story short: We see this game as a coin-flip proposition.
We see a huge day ahead for star Rutgers RB Kyle Monangai against Virginia Tech’s shoddy run defense. Recall Virginia Tech’s shocking upset loss to Vanderbilt in Week 1. In that game, Vanderbilt ground away 181 yards on the ground on 48 carries.
Virginia Tech’s efforts to impede Vanderbilt on the ground opened up opportunities for easy looks through the air – Vanderbilt got 190 yards and two TD through the air on nearly 12 yards per attempt.
This is the blueprint for Rutgers, a team several rungs higher than Vanderbilt on the qualitative ladder. The Hokies will have more success on the ground in this game than they did against Vandy (2.5 YPC), but are not going to get bailed out by their passing attack again (VT QB Kyron Drones had 322 passing yards and two TD) if trailing, as they did in the second half of the Vandy game to force overtime.
We think getting a field goal or more with Rutgers is a gift.
The pick: Rutgers +4.5
Oklahome State vs. Utah Pick
Oklahoma State (-2.5) vs. Utah
ATL: OSU -3.5
When we locked this bet in on Sunday, Utah QB Cam Rising’s status was still very much up in the air after Rising missed last week’s win over Utah State with a hand injury. The next afternoon, on Monday, Utah WR Dorian Singer told the media that Rising will be available. Later that day, the Action Network’s Brett McMurphy – an Oklahoma State alum with deep ties to the school – confirmed that his sources were saying the same.
That caused this line to flip as of this typing – Utah is now the -2 favorite.
Either way, we’re riding with Oklahoma State. The Pokes have impressed us this year, beginning with their emphatic win over defending FCS champion South Dakota State in the opener. The next week, against Arkansas, Okie State didn’t play its A-game, but the Pokes showed resilience in rallying to force overtime in an eventual 2OT victory.
Everybody knows that OSU RB Ollie Gordon is one of college football’s best singular offensive talents. But it is Oklahoma State’s improved passing game that has raised this team’s ceiling. Without it, Arkansas wins that Week 2 game in regulation, perhaps by double-digits.
Gordon is in line for a big game here against a middle-of-the-road Utah run defense. And Oklahoma State’s offensive line and quick-hit passing game project to mitigate a Utah pass-rush that ranks No. 13 in sacks per dropback. Last year, Okie State finished No. 7 in least sacks allowed per game. And through three games this season, the Pokes have allowed zero sacks.
We bet on Sundays to get the best number. We failed in that regard in this matchup. That said, we still like the Oklahoma State side, and will be looking to buy more if this line hits +3. Our system believes OSU should be favored by 3.5 points, and we like the way the Pokes match up in the on-field handicap.
The pick: Oklahoma State -2.5
Iowa vs. Minnesota Pick
Iowa (-2.5) at Minnesota
ATL: Iowa -3.1
The Hawkeyes finished last regular season 10-2. But Iowa believes it should have been 11-1. Last October, in a home game against the Gophers, Iowa’s Cooper DeJean appeared to return a punt for a touchdown in the late fourth quarter that would have put Iowa ahead 17-12.
Instead, the referees, who initially went to the replay booth to determine whether Dejean had stepped out of bounds (he hadn’t), announced that Dejean had made an invalid fair catch sign – while waving teammates away from the ball after it had hit the ground – that nullified the return.
Iowa coaches and players have brought this up numerous times since – it might be the maddest that Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz has been about any one singular thing in his entire coaching career. Iowa fans now wear shirts that say “It wasn’t a fair catch.”
Meanwhile, that flipped outcome allowed Minnesota to finish 5-7. The Gophers then received the very last bowl bid of the 2023 season because they had the highest APR score. Minnesota beat Bowling Green in the bowl game. The reversed call had the effect of flipping Minnesota from a 4-8 team to a 6-7 finish.
These teams play similar styles. But Iowa is objectively the better version. And the Hawkeyes come to Minneapolis with a mission to get even.
The pick: Iowa -2.5
Iowa vs. Minnesota Player Prop Pick
Iowa TE Luke Lachey: 20.5 Receiving Yards (At Minnesota)
In five full games going back to last season — Lachey was knocked out for the 2023 season early in the third game — Lachey has been targeted 6.4 times per game with 3.8 catches per game.
Lachey averaged 65.5 YPG receiving in the two full games he played in 2023. This year, that number is down to 29.3 YPC over three games. That’s in spite of Lachey posting zero receptions on four targets in the loss to Iowa State.
Iowa’s passing game is once again struggling, leading to a disappointing start for Lachey. The zero-catch Iowa State game was disappointing. But it was the only game out of the five that he’s played in since the start of last season where he didn’t surpass this number.
The pick: Iowa TE Lachey over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Michigan St. vs. BC Pick
Michigan State (+6.5) at Boston College
ATL: Boston College -5.5
The Spartans are still sorting out their new-look offense under HC Jonathan Smith, but we liked what we have seen from MSU so far.
But where MSU has excelled is the defense in general, and high-leverage situational football on both sides. The third-down offense is top-25 overall, and the defense is top-20 in points per scoring opportunity allowed.
Boston College has had an impressive start under its own new HC, Bill O’Brien, having lost to only Missouri thus far. Though Missouri started slow in that game until WR Luther Burden got going, the Tigers provided a road map for Michigan State on how to potentially turn this game into a coin flip.
Missouri was able to hold Boston College’s dangerous running game to a mere 49 yards and less than 2 YPC. Boston College remained viable because its passing game greatly overachieved pregame expectations with 249 yards – albeit with two Thomas Castellanos interceptions mixed in.
Run defense is the thing that Michigan State is best at. Sparty ranks No. 21 in defensive rushing success rate. Sparty’s pass defense isn’t elite to that degree. But it's strong, boasting the No. 9 pressure rate and (No. 15 interception rate.
On paper, this defensive profile is problematic for Boston College. If MSU can stop BC’s run game as Missouri did, forcing Castellanos to the air, we know he’s going to turn the ball over. It’s only a matter of time.
Forcing Boston College into that game script will also require cooperation from Sparty’s offense, of course. There’s a straightforward path to that.
Boston College’s defense has been slightly above-average for the FBS. It would be solidly above-average were it not for the bugaboo of allowing explosive plays (No. 79 marginal explosiveness). Sparty’s attack has showed, if nothing else, an aptitude for generating explosive plays (No. 31 marginal explosiveness).
If Michigan State’s run defense shuts out the lights on BC’s ground game, and Sparty connects on a couple home runs offensively, Michigan State will be live to improve to 4-0. Either way, we’re expecting a closer contest than the market is.
The pick: Michigan State +6.5
