Below are my best bets for college football's Week 6, a mix of picks on the spread and player props. 

Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately – as they happen – into our college football free bet tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move:

Note: “ATL” below stands for “Adjusted Thor Line” – my system’s spread. If you want a deeper dive into that system, we have a full college football game model based on my projections. 

Onto the picks!

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR WEEK 5

Auburn at Georgia Pick and Prop

Auburn, 2-3, is a flawed team. But they aren’t nearly as bad as their record indicates. In fact, Auburn’s second-order win total of 3.9 suggests they’re qualitatively more like a 4-1 team.

Turnovers have crushed the Tigers — particularly back-breaking ones in big moments, such as the 61-yard pick-six served up to Oklahoma with four minutes remaining last Saturday. That interception became the Sooners’ game-winning touchdown, helping OU to erase an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Auburn, 27-21.

That interception obfuscated a strong rebound performance for Auburn’s offense in QB Payton Thorne’s return to the starting lineup. Against a strong OU defense, it was easily Thorne’s best performance of the year – 338 passing yards and three TD, with only the one (admittedly contextually enormous) turnover.

That was Auburn’s only turnover of the game. Against an OU defense that entered the day leading the nation in takeaways. Why is that an important data point? Because heading into that game, Auburn, per SP+, had lost 9.1 PPG to bad turnover luck – the impact of actual turnovers over expected turnovers – through the first four games.

Mitigating turnovers was going to make Auburn look like a different team. The Tigers have a top-25 SP+ defense, and a top-20 SP+ special teams. And this might surprise you – Auburn’s offense also ranks a solid No. 35 SP+.

This Auburn team is better than last year’s version that finished 6-7. But even that team, Hugh Freeze’s first, only lost by seven points to Georgia and by three points to Alabama. Both were sweat-free covers against arguably two of the three best teams in the country.

Underachieving as favorites and overachieving as underdogs has been a hallmark of Freeze’s coaching career. Freeze is 29-14 ATS (67.4%) as an underdog. Meanwhile, Freeze is well below .500 in his career as a favorite. Auburn was favored in all three of its straight-up losses this year.

The market seems to be banking on a ticked-off Georgia team running it up against an Auburn squad that has burned bettors. I’m not sure the Bulldogs will even get that opportunity. Auburn’s defense has one pronounced weakness: Explosive downfield passing plays (No. 80). Georgia doesn’t even try to generate those in normal game conditions – the Bulldogs rank No. 113 in air yards per attempt and No. 125 in air yards per completion. 

Georgia’s defense has sagged to No. 11 SP+ in 2024. The Bulldogs’ run defense has been mediocre, and Georgia is not generating turnovers. When Auburn is able to run the ball, and when Auburn isn’t turning the ball over, the offense has been better than the public thinks.

Georgia’s run defense ranks No. 71 in success rate, No. 128 in opportunity rate, and No. 106 in power success rate. That run defense has been particularly susceptible to outside-zone run concepts going back a few years now. 

In last September’s matchup between these two teams, Auburn picked on that weakness mercilessly. Payton Thorne gouged Georgia for 92 rushing yards on 12 attempts. That game was tied until Brock Bowers scored the game-winning TD with less than three minutes to go.

Last week, we saw Alabama pick on the same weakness. QB Jalen Milroe ran for 117 yards and two TDs. The week before that, Kentucky QB Brock Vandagriff – not known for his wheels – ran for 26 yards against Georgia. In the other four games he’s played this year, Vandagriff had 30 rushing yards total.

Thorne has gone over the listed rushing number in all three of his starts this season, averaging 38.3 rushing yards in those games. In the last 10 regular season games of 2023, Thorne had 27 rushing yards or more nine times.

The thing you always have to keep in mind with college quarterback rushing totals is that sack yardage is deducted from the quarterback’s total. Georgia ranks a modest No. 45 in sacks per dropback. The Bulldogs don’t sell-out in this phase.

Thorne’s number is artificially suppressed. On books where you can ladder, sprinkle across the juiced odds at higher numbers. At DraftKings, at the time of this writing, 9-to-1 odds were available at 40+ rushing yards for Thorne.

This is the classic Hugh Freeze throw-the-kitchen-sink-at-them spot. We’re getting free line value on a heavy underdog that matches up decently well on-paper.

The picks: 

  • Auburn +23.5 
  • Auburn QB Thorne Over 11.5 Rushing Yards

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Purdue at Wisconsin Pick

In the first half of last week’s game at USC, the Badgers could not have benefited any more from Trojan mistakes. USC turned the ball over three times in the first two quarters, and Wisconsin got a free 63-yard passing TD when USC’s all-out blitz left no safeties deep. Because of all that, Wisconsin led 21-10 at halftime.

The Trojans utterly dominated the second half, outscoring Wisconsin 28-0 to walk away with a 38-21 win. Wisconsin generated a mere 286 yards of offense against a bad defense and had less than 20 minutes of possession. The Badgers have now been out-scored 49-7 the past two games after halftime.

Wisconsin QB Braedyn Locke, who took over the job when Tyler Van Dyke was lost for the season, is not a starting-caliber Big 10 quarterback. At least not yet. In 204 career attempts, he’s completed a poor 50.0% of passes for a minuscule 5.3 YPA. And he adds zero value with his legs (-17 career rushing yards). This year, Locke has an unsightly 27.8% success rate.

All of which is to say that the Badgers’ offense is going to be decidedly one-handed the rest of the way. The rushing offense, meanwhile, is efficient, but not at all explosive. This is why Wisconsin ranks dead-last in the FBS in offensive isoPPP, a measure of explosiveness. 

Wisconsin’s defense has also regressed from precedent set over the past decade. The Badgers rank outside the top-85 in success rate against both the run and pass. The run defense has been particularly susceptible. 

This is the area of the game where Purdue should be able to move the ball a bit. The Boilermakers currently rank No. 26 EPA/run. And I expect the best offensive showing of the season for Purdue this week while benefiting from the dead-cat bounce off OC Graham Harrell’s firing. Harrell’s play-calling was a clear issue going back to last season.

Wisconsin’s offense will have a clear advantage on Purdue when it keeps the ball on the ground – but successful drives are going to be long ones due to Wisko’s inability to generate explosive runs. The Badgers are also going to have a predictable, risk-averse gameplan in this game, because they can’t afford to let Locke sit back in the pocket. Purdue’s biggest strength is its pass rush that ranks No. 16 in sacks/dropback.

Wisconsin shouldn’t be laying nearly two-touchdowns against any Power 4 opponent at this point. If the Badgers overlook Purdue, the Boilermakers may end up making this more of a game than the market is anticipating.

The pick: Purdue +13.5

Houston at TCU Pick

It’s been a difficult transition from Dana Holgorsen’s Air Raid offense to Willie Fritz’s balanced approach. The Cougars were shut out in their first two Big 12 games the past two weeks.

However, Fritz’s first Houston defense has proven to be strong against the pass, ranking No. 31 in success rate and No. 32 in yards/dropback. 

That’s important in a matchup against TCU, one of the pass-happiest teams in the nation. 

The one area of pass defense where Houston has struggled is allowing explosive downfield passes (No. 130). But TCU’s quick-hitting passing game isn’t designed to make many downtown shots. The Horned Frogs rank No. 105 in air yards/target. 

On the other side of the ball, TCU’s defense has struggled against the run all season. When Houston is in a neutral game script, its preference is to keep the ball on the ground.

This is another hold-your-nose and jump bet on a heavy underdog that is getting artificial line value in a game where on-paper it matches up reasonably well.

For a couple bonus prop looks in this game, we’re also on TCU QB Josh Hoover over 0.5 interceptions, TCU WR JP Richardson under 41.5 receiving yards, and Houston RB Stacy Sneed over 39.5 rushing yards.

The pick: Houston +17

Michigan at Washington Pick

This week, we happen to love a bunch of ugly dogs. This matchup is a bit different – we believe the wrong team is favored.

The public perception on Michigan has swung so heavily that they are receiving three points against a Washington team that has also steeply regressed since these teams last met in the national title game.

In that game, in January, we were all over the Wolverines because Michigan had one of the nation’s best rushing offenses, while Washington had one of the P5’s worst run defenses.

We love the on-field matchup in this game for similar reasons.

While the loss of JJ McCarthy has rendered Michigan’s passing offense toothless, the Wolverines still have a strong rushing offense. The Wolverines rank No. 28 in EPA/run, and are top-37 in both yards before contact and yards after contact on run attempts. 

While Washington has an awesome pass defense, the Huskies’ run defense remains problematic. This was the reason we were on Rutgers last Friday against Washington, a ticket we cashed.

Michigan is a better version of Rutgers. It goes without saying that Washington will not have success running against the Wolverines’ vaunted run defense. That’ll make the Huskies one-dimensional throwing into what is in its own right a strong Wolverines pass defense. 

Lastly, Michigan has an enormous special teams advantage – with the No. 4 SP+ unit going against UW’s No. 130-ranked unit – a factor that might come into play in what I expect to be a tight, low-scoring game. Washington has played only two opponents ranked in the top-75 of my Power Rankings – it lost outright both times by a combined eight points. My prediction is 21-17 Michigan.

The pick: Michigan +3 (also on Michigan +120 ML)

Rutgers at Nebraska Pick

We’ve been on Rutgers and cashed each of the past two weeks (against Virginia Tech and Washington). Since the market still does not appear to be giving the Scarlet Knights adequate respect, we’re going to run it back and see if we can’t make it three-for-three.

Rutgers, 4-0, is a run-dominant team behind star RB Kyle Monangai. The Scarlet Knights only throw when they have to, or when they can get the best of a numbers advantage when you’re getting too greedy sneaking extra bodies into the box. You must be stout against the run, or Greg Schiano will bleed the clock to death while playing the field position game all day.

Nebraska has a strong run defense, but it is not elite. Monangai will be able to grind out his yardage in this matchup. It might not be pretty, but it will likely be enough for Rutgers to not have to abandon their ethos.

Nebraska’s offense is much-improved with true freshman QB Dylan Raiola at quarterback. But the Cornhuskers, previously run-dominant, are now one of the nation’s most balanced offenses in run/pass ratio. 

However, the passing attack has generated around 65% of the offense’s total yardage. On a per-play basis, Nebraska’s run offense is roughly FBS-average, while the passing attack is top-25. 

If you can hinder the Cornhuskers’ passing attack, you throw a kink into their entire offensive operation. The upset loss to Illinois provided the blueprint – Nebraska skewed radically to its pass attack in a neutral game script against a good pass defense, and the Cornhuskers’ depreciated offensive efficiency came back to bite them.

Rutgers’ pass defense is a couple rungs above Illinois’. The Scarlet Knights are top-20 in both success rate and EPA/pass. Rutgers also excels at tackling in space, and ranks No. 21 in tackle success rate.

To date, Nebraska has played the No. 104 strength of schedule. It got upset by the best team it has played (Illinois). This is a sneaky step-up in competition. We see Rutgers as a live underdog.

The pick: Rutgers +7.5

Miami at Cal Pick and Prop

College GameDay is headed to Berkeley for the first-time ever. That should give Cal a legitimate home-field advantage in one of this week’s best situational spots.

Coming off an emotionally-taxing scare against Virginia Tech this past week, Miami travels across the country for a game that will not kick off until 10:30 PM eastern. By the time the second half kicks off, it’ll be past midnight on the Hurricanes’ body clocks. It would be stunning if that didn’t have at least a small deleterious effect on the team’s performance.

On the other side, Cal is coming off a bye. The Golden Bears have been preparing for this spot for two weeks with a sour taste in their mouths after they frittered a game away against Florida State that they probably should have won (67% postgame win expectancy).

Beyond that, Cal is going to have its star RB Jaydn Ott at full strength for the first time since the opener. Ott was knocked out of the 31-13 win against FCS UC-Davis in the third quarter with a right ankle injury. 

Ott tried to play through pain – and wasn’t effective – the next week against Auburn. So Cal sat him the following week, a win over SDSU. Ott returned for the FSU game, gaining 79 yards from scrimmage.

Cal’s offense will be better going forward than it has been to this point. The Golden Bears have 3.5 second-order wins in four games despite averaging a meager 3.8 YPC – Ott has averaged only 3.3 while playing hurt. He averaged 5.3 YPC in each of the two previous seasons. Ott also caught 71 balls over those two seasons for over 7.0 YPR. But because of his injury, he hadn’t integrated into the passing attack.

The guess here? This all that changes against Miami. The Hurricanes’ run defense, which ranks No. 63 EPA/run, will struggle to contain Ott. Ott ran for 1,305 yards last season, and had over 1,500 scrimmage yards. He is the key to any hopes that Cal has of putting a scare into Miami – and we think he takes advantage of this spotlight matchup for his NFL Draft stock.

On the other side of the ball, this is a tougher matchup for Miami’s offense than the market appears to be considering. Miami’s Air Raid offense is extremely tilted towards the pass. You cannot beat the Hurricanes if you cannot slow the aerial assault.

Cal’s biggest team strength is its pass defense. The Golden Bears’ pass defense ranks No. 11 in success rate and No. 12 in EPA/pass. Of QB Cam Ward’s four interceptions in 2024, three have come in the past two games. Virginia Tech scored 14 points off turnovers in its near-miss upset.

Care to guess who leads the country in interceptions? That would be the Cal Bears with 10. It’s fair to point out that Cal hasn’t faced any juggernaut passing attacks, but keep in mind they’ve generated those 10 picks in only four games.

It goes without saying that we’re also on the over 0.5 interception prop for Miami QB Cam Ward.

We love this situational spot, and we think Cal matches up well. The Hurricanes may be headed into an ambush.

The picks: 

  • Cal +13 
  • Cal RB Ott Over 70.5 Rushing Yards

Duke at Georgia Tech Pick

Georgia Tech’s rushing attack has had a baffling regression in 2024 – dual-threat QB Haynes King and RB Jamal Haynes are both under 45% success rates on rushing attempts. That has put a lot of pressure on King to bail the offense out through the air. He has come through, with the passing attack currently top-10 in both success rate and EPA/dropback.

But Georgia Tech isn’t likely to have that kind of aerial success against Manny Diaz’s defense. Duke’s pass defense ranks No. 20 in success rate and No. 5 in yards/dropback. Georgia Tech may try to lean more into the run in this game, but on-paper that’s thorny too if King/Haynes aren’t running better than they have been. Duke’s run defense ranks No. 19 in success rate.

Georgia Tech’s offense is based on efficiency. If Duke can hinder that efficiency, and get the Jackets behind the sticks, it’ll be strength-on-weakness, with Duke’s elite pass-rush pinning its ears back against King in a scenario where he can’t shuttle the ball off quickly around the line of scrimmage.

Duke’s offense surprisingly struggled to throw the ball last week against UNC. This matchup is an ideal get-right opportunity for Duke QB Maalik Murphy. The Yellow Jackets have one of the nation’s worst pass defenses – No. 117 success rate and No. 127 EPA/dropback. 

Not only that, but GT’s pass-rush is non-existent, with only two sacks in four games against FBS opponents. The Jackets only generated one sack total in losses to Syracuse and Louisville – they were lit up for 650 passing yards and six pass TDs in those two games. Duke’s offensive line, which ranks No. 8 in pressure rate allowed, should keep a clean pocket for Murphy on Saturday.

The pick: Duke +8.5

Michigan State RB Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams Prop 

On last Saturday morning’s live show (you can catch us live on the YouTube channel every Saturday at 10 a.m. ET) we advocated for an over bet on Lynch-Adams’ rushing yardage total – priced at 30.5 – against Ohio State. Lynch-Adams only got nine carries in that game, but cashed the ticket with 35 rushing yards.

This is likely why Lynch-Adams’ rushing total opened at 35.5 this week. But Oregon is a more advantageous matchup. Ohio State has one of the country’s best run defenses, while Oregon’s biggest team weakness is its run defense.

The Ducks’ run defense ranks No. 87 in yards per run (sacks omitted) and No. 113 in EPA/rush. 

Michigan State is a 23.5-point road underdog at Oregon. That’s the same spread as last week when Michigan State hosted Ohio State. Standard gamescript concerns apply, but Lynch-Adams will almost assuredly not need double-digit carries to breech this number against Oregon’s middling run defense.

The pick: MSU RB Lynch-Adams Over 35.5 Rushing Yards