Below are my best bets for college football's Week 7, a mix of picks on the spread and player props. 

Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately – as they happen – into our college football free bet tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.

Note: “Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full college football game model based on my projections. 

Onto the picks!

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR WEEK 7

Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech (Thursday)

Adjusted Thor Line: Louisiana Tech -7.6

Middle Tennessee’s new coaching staff has only won one game this season. MTSU finished with a 20% postgame win expectancy and was outgained in that seven-point victory over a low-tier FCS opponent (Tennessee Tech). The game was tied until 16 seconds left.

The tree-top analytical profile of MTSU is grisly. The Blue Raiders can’t run the ball, nor stop the run. They have one of the three worst pass defenses in the FBS, and a rotten special teams unit. MTSU’s pass-first offense is the team’s relative “strength.” But that isn’t good either, ranking Nos. 93 and 95 in success rate and EPA/dropback, respectively. The offense does, however, rank No. 18 in explosion. MTSU must hit home runs through the air to score points.

Louisiana Tech has also only beaten an FCS team (though they finished that game against Nichols with a 97% win expectancy). In LTU’s other three games – the Bulldogs have already had two byes! – they have shown to have much more of a pulse than MTSU. LTU lost by 10 to NC State, and had a pair of single-digit wins against fellow G5 teams.

LTU’s offense is bad. The Bulldogs similarly have a pass-first ethos and can’t run the ball whatsoever. LTU’s boom-or-bust pass offense has similarities to MTSU’s, but the splits are more extreme. LTU ranks No. 126 success rate and No. 124 EPA/dropback — but No. 7 in explosion.

The difference between these two teams is on defense and special teams. Louisiana Tech’s defense has been decent. The pass defense has been downright frisky, ranking No. 6 in success rate, No. 35 in EPA/dropback, and No. 48 in suppressing explosion. 

This is why we’re fading MTSU QB Nicholas Vattiato in the prop market. Vattiato has thrown for 210 yards or less in three of five games this season. Vattiato’s yardage at the sportsbooks is inflated because he averaged 374 passing yards in the other two games – against WKU and Memphis, who both have bad pass defenses. 

We also love the over on 0.5 interceptions for Vattiato. Vattiato has thrown 17 interceptions in 17 games since last season. And while Louisiana Tech hasn’t generated a ton of interceptions this season, the Bulldogs rank No. 14 in contested targets forced. Louisiana Tech is there at the catch point, and Vattiato is careless.

On the other side of the ball, LTU’s passing offense has a much better matchup. MTSU’s pass defense is an abomination – No. 126 success rate, No. 132 EPA/dropback, No. 132 completion % against, and No. 62 in suppressing explosion. Because of this, the yardage total on LTU QB Evan Bullock (232.5) at sportsbooks is a good value.

Lastly, LTU also holds a big special teams advantage in this matchup. We tend to think that a double-digit Lousiina Tech win is coming. But if the game ends up being closer, the Bulldogs’ special teams edge could flip a ticket our way.

Thor’s Bets: Louisiana Tech -4 | MTSU QB Nicholas Vattiato Over 0.5 Interceptions | MTSU QB Nicholas Vattiato Under 260.5 Passing Yards | LTU QB Evan Bullock Over 232.5 Passing Yards

Penn State at USC

Adjusted Thor Line: Penn State -6.5

Last week, USC got upset on the road at Minnesota. That was a bad matchup for the Trojans – Minnesota has a strong pass defense and a good rushing offense, and were thus able to put the clamps on Lincoln Riley’s air-leaning offense while controlling the clock on offense.

USC returns home this week, but this is another bad matchup: Penn State is basically just a much better version of Minnesota. 

The Nittany Lions have a fabulous rushing offense — and it appears that rushing offense will return to full strength this week. Penn State HC James Franklin said he's "very confident" that star RB Nicholas Singleton will return for this game. Last week, Singleton missed the first game of his career, a 27-11 PSU victory over UCLA.

Singleton had returned to practice last Thursday and Friday, and he went through pregame warmups. But the staff ultimately decided to rest him to get him healthy for USC. Franklin said Monday that Singleton wasn’t 100 percent but could have played against UCLA. Singleton averaged 102 yards per game over the first four games on a healthy 7.7 YPC.

USC’s run defense has been a problem this season, an issue that the Gophers mercilessly exploited. The Trojans rank No. 105 in yards per carry allowed and also No. 105 in yards per carry before contact. USC’s defensive line is losing at the point of attack.

This is bad news against a PSU run offense that ranks No. 9 in success rate. Singleton and backfield mate Kaytron Allen are going to be spotted an extra yard or two before they get touched against USC. It’s an advantage you don’t want to give them – that duo has helped PSU rank No. 13 in yards after contact per carry this fall.

USC’s defense has improved to a middling No. 62 SP+ – because the Trojans’ pass defense has improved a bit, and because USC has, by the numbers, had the nation’s best conversion rate on stifling third-and-medium and third-and-long attempts by opposing offenses.

The issue? The Trojans do not force good rushing offenses – see: Minnesota game – into those types of scenarios. Penn State also, it must be said, has a far better passing offense than Minnesota does.

On the other side of the ball, Penn State’s defense is going to give USC’s offense trouble. Penn State’s front seven might be the nation’s best. The run defense is elite – USC RB Woody Marks will be a non-factor on the ground in this game.

That is going to force USC to be one-dimensional. And it will shine a glaring light on USC’s offensive line issues – the Trojans rank No. 116 in blown block % and, more troublingly, No. 129 in pressure rate allowed. 

Penn State’s nasty pass rush – which ranks No. 8 in pressure rate and No. 20 in sacks/dropback – is going to tee off on USC QB Miller Moss. USC will assuredly try to pepper PSU with quick-hitting concepts to mitigate that issue, but that’s unlikely to work – PSU’s defense ranks No. 11 in yards/dropback and No. 28 in EPA/dropback.

Thor’s Bet: Penn State -4.5

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Wisconsin at Rutgers 

Adjusted Thor Line: Rutgers -3.6

We’ve cashed multiple tickets on Rutgers this season when matched up against poor run defenses and are going to return to the well.

The run-dominant Scarlet Knights rank No. 27 in EPA/rush and No. 12 in yards after contact per carry thanks to star tackle-breaking machine RB Kyle Monangai. Wisconsin’s feeble run defense ranks No. 117 EPA/rush and No. 96 in yards before contact per carry.

On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin’s offense woke up thanks to 359 passing yards in a blowout win over Purdue last week. Rutgers’ elite pass defense – No. 3 success rate, No. 5 EPA/dropback – is going to put the clamps on QB Braedyn Locke, forcing Wisconsin’s Chez Mellusi-less RB room to carry most of the offensive weight.

Thor’s Bet: Rutgers -2.5

Cincinnati at UCF

Adjusted Thor Line: UCF -5.3

UCF, a darkhorse Big 12 champion choice for some over the summer, has turned out to be a flawed team with a few pronounced strengths and a few debilitating weaknesses.

UCF has a tremendous rushing offense (No. 2 success rate), and a tremendous run defense (No. 10 success rate). But the Knights have an inefficient, turnover-prone passing attack. And UCF’s pass defense is atrocious.

Defenses that can take away the run give UCF fits. Cincinnati does not apply. The Bearcats have been getting gouged on the ground all season, ranking No. 108 in success rate and No. 126 in yards before contact per carry. 

On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati’s run game is going to run into a wall, here. Not only is UCF’s run defense top-shelf, but Bearcats RB Corey Kiner was carted off the field in Cincy’s last game. There has been no word on whether or not Kiner will play in this game.

That is going to put a ton of pressure on Cincy QB Brendan Sorsby to move a one-handed offense. And while UCF’s pass defense is terrible, Saturday’s forecast could hinder passing, with winds forecasted for 12-15 mph.

Thor’s Bet: UCF -3.5

Florida at Tennessee

Adjusted Thor Line: Tennessee -11.4

Florida has quietly won two straight to improve to 3-2. The Gators boast the No. 10 SP+ offense and the No. 5 SP+ special teams. The issue has been the defense, which is mediocre (No. 52 SP+).

But can Tennessee’s offense light up the scoreboard enough to cover this inflated number? The Volunteers’ offense is not what people think. Tennessee still spreads the field wide and runs at high tempo. 

But the Vols are running the ball more than they ever have under HC Josh Heupel, and the passing explosion hasn’t been there, with Tennessee ranking No. 84 in yards per successful dropback and No. 73 in percentage of completions for 20+ yards.

That latter issue has to do with QB Nico Iamaleava’s still-developing pocket presence. Though Tennessee ranks a solid No. 26 in pressure rate allowed, the Vols are No. 88 in sacks per dropback and an ugly No. 113 in sacks per pressure. Iamaleava has a troubling 28.6% pressure to sack percentage. Tennessee has had a revolving-door at the offensive tackles, which likely hasn’t helped matters.

Florida’s defense is not good. But it can get after the quarterback – the Gators rank No. 28 in sacks/dropback and No. 43 in pressure rate. The Gators’ pass defense has been mediocre overall, but it has been dragged down by a propensity to allow explosive passes. In this game, Florida’s pass-rush projects to short-circuit Tennessee’s ability to generate those.

Tennessee is going to have success on the ground. Florida’s run defense ranks a rotten No. 126 in success rate. But while you can nick the Gators on the ground all day, Florida’s run defense has, at least, been very good at taking away explosive runs, ranking No. 20 in yards per successful rush.

When Florida has the ball, the Gators are going to have huge issues running the ball against a Tennessee run defense that is one of the nation’s best. However, Tennessee is still having problems defending the pass, ranking No. 92 in success rate. Tennessee’s secondary is a sore spot – the Vols are third-worst in the entire FBS in contented catch percentage. 

Florida’s passing offense has been really good, ranking No. 9 in success rate and No. 7 in completion percentage. The Gators are going to complete quick-hitting passes and force Tennessee’s secondary to tackle in space. This is a sure path to offensive efficiency, and a few explosive plays will almost assuredly be generated after the catch.

Thor’s Bet: Florida +15.5

Northern Illinois at Bowling Green

Adjusted Thor Line: Pick ‘em

Bowling Green has played in four consecutive one-possession games since beating an FCS opponent in the opener. Most recently, BGU split games against bottom-of-the-barrel FBS teams Old Dominion and Akron. Those teams have combined to go 1-7 in their other games.

Bowling Green has a pass-leaning offense. Its defense struggles to stop the run, but is strong against the pass. For those reasons, this is a bad matchup for BGU.

Northern Illinois has one of the G5’s best defenses (No. 43 SP+). That defense has proved equally good against both the run and the pass. The pass defense has held opposing quarterbacks to the eighth-lowest QBR in the FBS.

The issue for the Huskies has been its vanilla, run-heavy offense. Defenses that can shut down NIU’s run game can render the Huskies toothless. But if you can’t stop the run, you’re in deep, deep trouble. Bowling Green would fall into the latter camp. BGU’s run defense is horrific, ranking No. 129 in yards per rushing attempt on non-sacks. 

Thor’s Bet: Northern Illinois +3

Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan 

Adjusted Thor Line: Eastern Michigan -1.4

We think the wrong team is favored. 

Miami (OH), 1-4, has only beaten lowly UMass at home, a 23-20 nailbiter. Last year’s MAC champions will not be repeating - Miami got handled last week in a 30-20 loss to Toledo that was more lopsided than the scoreboard indicated.

EMU, coming off a bye, has quietly started 4-1. The Eagles have not played as tough a schedule as Miami, true, but they beat a likely bowl-bound Jacksonville State, and also went on the road and slapped around UMass – the team that gave Miami trouble – by two touchdowns.

Miami’s defense, so strong in 2023, has fallen off (No. 58 SP+). You can nick the pass defense for short completions, but it has been solid at taking away explosives. Miami’s run defense has been particularly problematic, ranking No. 90 in success rate, No. 99 in EPA/run, No. 111 in yards before contact, and No. 125 in yards after contact.

EMU has a run-leaning offense. The Eagles’ rushing attack isn’t dynamic, but it will nick you with paper cuts if you let it (No. 68 success rate). The passing attack isn’t explosive whatsoever, but it reliably converts quick-hitters, ranking No. 44 in success rate and No. 33 in completion percentage. 

Per SP+, Miami (OH) has the sixth-worst offense in the FBS. The Redhawks have a bottom-three overall run game, the unstated reason that Miami throws the ball on running downs more than any other FBS team. 

That puts a ton of pressure on the passing attack to generate all of the offense’s yards. QB Brett Gabbert has an eye-bleeding 5/7 TD/INT rate on only 55.1% completions. Negative plays have crippled the offense when turnovers haven’t. Gabbert has a comically-bad 31.3% pressure-to-sack rate.

And though the Eagles’ pass defense metrics aren’t great – No. 111 success rate overall – EMU figures to give Miami’s non-threatening passing attack issues. That’s because EMU’s pass rush is very good – No. 5 pressure rate and No. 11 in sacks per dropback. EMU plays an extremely aggressive style, ranking No. 7 in blitz rate.

Against EMU, Gabbert will be under duress all game long. Based on his work to this point, sacks and turnovers are coming.

Thor’s Bet: Eastern Michigan +3.5

UTSA at Rice

Adjusted Thor Line: UTSA -2.8

These teams have been bad to sports bettors, with each sporting matching 1-4 ATS records.

UTSA, despite losing QB Frank Harris to graduation over the offseason, remains a pass-first offense. The Roadrunners have not been throwing the ball nearly as well in 2024, ranking No. 101 in EPA/dropback. To be fair, UTSA’s run game is worse, ranking No. 112 in EPA/rush. 

The biggest strength of RIce’s team is pass defense (No. 12 success rate), and, in particular, the pass rush (No. 1 sacks per dropback). UTSA’s offense ranks No. 114 in pressure rate allowed.

UTSA’s defense has sagged all the way to No. 103 SP+. It is a lopsided unit, very good against the run (No. 5 success rate and No. 16 EPA/run), but terrible against the pass (No. 116 in EPA/dropback). 

The Roadrunners have a dual-throng problem: UTSA gives up tons of wide-open targets (No. 123) and the unit doesn’t tackle well (No. 127 tackle rate) on the whole.

Rice is a pass-heavy team, with a twist: The entire offense is essentially funneled through RB Dean Connors. In addition to leading the team in rushing by a healthy margin, Connors also has five more catches than anyone else on the roster. Rice gets the ball out quickly, and, because of that, doesn’t allow sacks (No. 5).

That’s unfortunate for UTSA, because the only aspect of the Roadrunners' pass defense that has been decent is the pass rush (No. 35 pressure rate).

Rice’s offense is going to get the ball into space quickly and force UTSA to tackle one-on-one while keeping UTSA’s strong pass-rush at bay with quick-hitters. Advantage: Rice. UTSA’s pass-heavy offense must go into the teeth of a very good Rice pass-rush and overall pass defense. Advantage: Rice.

We think the Owls spring the upset. 

Thor’s Bet: Rice +4.5