Below are my best bets for college football's Week 5, a mix of picks on the spread and player props. 

Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately – as they happen – into our college football free bet tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move:

Note: “ATL” below stands for “Adjusted Thor Line” – my system’s spread. If you want a deeper dive into that system, we have a full college football game model based on my projections. 

Onto the picks!

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR WEEK 5

Duke vs. UNC Pick and Prop

When this line dropped under a field goal this past Sunday, it became my first bet of the week. It was clearly short, and the market had corrected it by Monday morning, pushing this to Duke -3. That’s where the number remains as of publication time.

That same morning, UNC HC Mack Brown was forced to address reporters’ questions about his postgame comments in the locker room after UNC’s stunning 70-50 home loss to James Madison. Brown told UNC players that if things didn’t turn around, and if they didn't feel he was providing the leadership they needed, he would step aside.

Per reports, a number of players left the stadium that day believing Brown was on the precipice of resigning. The 73-year-old Brown said his message was misinterpreted. "I shouldn't have put that pressure on them, so I'm disappointed in me," Brown said. “I love my job, I love these kids, and I love this place. That's why I hate losing so much.”

Though Brown took responsibility for the chatter around his job status, he stopped well short of falling on the sword. "Things used to stay in the locker room," Brown said on Monday. "The locker room is sacred. It's obviously not anymore.” 

Does this feel like a Tar Heels team that is ready to get off the mat and put forth its best effort of the season? That’s what might be needed to beat undefeated Duke on the road. This will be the first time Brown’s Tar Heels face the Blue Devils on new HC Manny Diaz. 

Diaz, who was fired by Brown in 2013 as Texas’ DC the day after the Longhorns gave up 550 rushing yards to BYU, would seem to be in a pretty advantageous position to get his revenge. 

North Carolina has a tremendous running game thanks to star RB Omarion Hampton. The passing game is a huge question mark – UNC has started three quarterbacks in four games. In the loss to JMU, UNC turned the ball over five times.

Meanwhile, UNC’s defense is once again a sore spot. JMU hung 53 points in the first half against UNC, a single-half record in the history of Tar Heel football. UNC’s run defense is adequate. But the pass defense is a trainwreck, and UNC allows explosive plays at one of the highest rates in the nation. 

That’s why we’re double-stacking QB Murphy’s over passing. The Blue Devils’ offense tilts decidedly towards the pass. And while efficiency has been a hit-and-miss proposition for Duke’s offense, the Blue Devils have shown an ability to hit explosive plays.

Diaz has brought his patented chaotic defensive system to Duke, and the Blue Devils have taken to it immediately. Duke’s defense is currently No. 4 in havoc rate and No. 11 in sacks per dropback. 

The guess here is that Duke stakes out to a lead, forcing UNC to the air. At that point, Criswell is going to be under consistent duress, almost assuredly leading to flipped fields.

The picks: 

  • Duke -2.5 
  • QB Murphy Over 248.5 Passing Yards

UTSA at East Carolina Picks

East Carolina suffered devastating news last week when senior CB Shavon Revel Jr. – a top-15 overall projected draft pick on the boards of The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and ESPN's Jordan Reid – tore an ACL in practice. He will miss the remainder of the season. An anonymous scout told ESPN that Revel had a chance to be “this year's Quinyon Mitchell.”

ECU’s pass defense was struggling before Revel’s injury, despite his lock-down play – with two interceptions in three games. The Pirates’ pass defense currently ranks No. 92 in success rate and No. 84 in EPA per dropback through four games.

ECU has a very good run defense. But that isn’t going to matter as much in this matchup against pass-leaning UTSA. The Roadrunners are a bit down this year, but the way they prefer to play offense directly leans into ECU’s Achilles Heel.

Meanwhile, ECU plays a frenetic brand of offense. The Pirates rank No. 1 in the nation in adjusted tempo. ECU struggles to run the ball (No. 104 success rate), but their aggressive pass-happy offense allows them to move the sticks. Unfortunately, the YOLO tendency of the offense as a whole is deeply inherent to ECU QB1 Mason Garcia’s individual game. Garcia is averaging a little over 250 passing YPG, but he’s also posted a sickly 5/9 TD/INT rate. 

ECU will not be able to run against UTSA’s strong run defense. That’s going to make the strategy of ECU’s hyper-tempo offense in this game predictable – ECU is going to keep the ball in the air. 

UTSA’s pass defense numbers are poor in the aggregate. But the Roadrunners have shown the ability to do two things: 1) Get after the quarterback (No. 44 in sacks per dropback) and 2) Crowd the catch point (No. 26 in contested catch rate). There is a correlation between the two. In this game, expect UTSA’s solid pass-rush to tick up a bit more without having to worry about a run threat. 

This is going to lead to hurried Garcia passes to WRs who are not open. Garcia’s body of work suggests interceptions are coming in that scenario. We think UTSA takes advantage of the situation, pulling off the road upset.

The pick: UTSA +4.5

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Liberty at Appalachian State Pick

My system suggests that this spread should be around Liberty -7 in a vacuum. Outside that vacuum, we have Liberty’s greatest strength (run offense) taking direct aim at Appy’s biggest weakness (run defense). 

Liberty HC Jamey Chadwell’s offenses over the years have always been supremely efficient due to their year-after-year success running the ball out of a shotgun-spread formation. Chadwell’s offenses are generally middle-of-the-road in explosion. 

That’s the case once again this year. If you are unable to stop Liberty’s efficiency, you will never force Liberty to punt, and you are going to be in for a very long day.

This is a very bad matchup for Appalachian State. I watched every play of Appy’s shocking 48-14 loss to South Alabama last Thursday. Why did Appy get run off its home field? Because it couldn’t stop the run. Over and over again, South Alabama gashed Appy on the ground, finishing with 318 yards and five TD on 7.4 YPC.

Through four games, Appalachian State’s run defense is bottom-10 in success rate, yards per rush allowed (non-sacks), and EPA/rush. Not surprisingly, Appy ranks a lowly No. 120 in overall tackle success rate. Liberty’s rushing offense – which ranks No. 27 in YPG, No. 37 in success rate, and No. 19 in yards before contact – is going to tee-off on that putrid run defense.

Much as was the case last Thursday night, Appalachian State’s only recourse will be to try to throw their way out of a hole. ASU QB1 Joey Aguilar struggled mightily against South Alabama, and the on-paper matchup against Liberty’s pass defense appears to be much more precarious. Liberty’s pass defense ranks No. 33 in success rate and No. 31 in completion percentage allowed.

With Boise State, Texas State, and Memphis all suffering losses the past three weeks, 4-0 Liberty is now back in the driver’s seat for the G5’s CFP bid. An emphatic road win against the Sun Belt’s preseason betting favorite would certainly help their cause, as Liberty is going to play few opponents of substance during Conference USA play. We believe a double-digit Liberty win is coming.

The pick: Liberty -3

Mississippi State at Texas Pick

You’re going to have to hold your nose and jump to tail us on this one, and we won’t blame you if you can’t stomach that. But on principle, we had to lock this bet in with 38 and the hook on Sunday night. 

Mississippi State looks like the SEC’s worst team. The Bulldogs are 1-3, with the only win coming against an FCS opponent. And first-year HC Jeff Lebby’s gig got considerably harder when QB1 Blake Shapen was lost for the season to injury in last week’s home loss to Florida.

True freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. takes over at QB for Shapen. Van Buren, a top-60 overall recruit in the past class, went 7-of-13 for 100 yards off the bench in relief of Shapen in the fourth quarter of the loss to Florida.

247Sports’ Andrew Ivins wrote this of Van Buren in his prep scouting report: “Has shown that he can connect on some deep shots, but not exactly a strength of his game and is prone to take some risks. Should be viewed as a dynamic signal caller that can coordinate RPOs and throw with some confidence on the move. … must be a better decision-maker and field-reader if he wants to reach his full potential.”

Lebby was hired because his offensive scheme facilitates both easy looks and pre-delineated one-on-one shots downfield for his quarterback. Van Buren is ahead of schedule, and mistakes should be expected, but he’s a talented prospect who can run the system. Getting to 14 points would give MSU a strong chance to cover – anything more than that probably guarantees it.

Meanwhile, on the Texas side, we may be getting QB2 Arch Manning for one more game. HC Steve Sarkisian said Monday that QB1 Quinn Ewers remains questionable for Saturday as he continues to recover from an oblique strain.

Put simply: Why would Texas rush Ewers back for this game if he’s not a no-questions-asked 100%? The Longhorns do not need him to win this game – they need him for the CFP run later this fall – and Ewers’ Heisman hopes might already be over because of lost time.

Manning completed 15-of-29 passes for 258 yards with a 2/2 TD/INT rate in his first career start this past Saturday, a 51-3 victory over UL-Monroe. Eight of Manning’s 15 completions were 15-or-more yards downfield. On those eight completions, Manning accrued 210 of his 258 passing yards (81.3% of his total).

Sarkisian said earlier this week that Texas spotted four or five misses where Manning should have checked down. Manning also showed a propensity to force throws under duress – one of his interceptions came directly out of that. In addition, Texas didn’t use Manning’s legs at all – Manning’s pregame rushing total at sportsbooks soared all the way into the mid-30s… he didn’t run once, finishing with -4 yards on one attempt courtesy of ULM’s lone sack.

All of which is to say: Manning is a talented-but-inexperienced quarterback who is going to make mistakes as he learns. Especially since his inclination – in an admittedly small sample – has been to take chances instead of playing things safe.

Mississippi State’s defense hasn’t been good (No. 86 SP+ overall). But it at least has the profile of a defense that could take advantage of Manning’s inexperience and tendencies. The Bulldogs are very good at taking away explosive plays (No. 28 marginal explosiveness) and forcing opposing offenses to nickel-and-dime them down the field (which, to be fair, you can do against MSU to your heart’s desire). 

MSU also ranks No. 34 in blitzes per dropback. Though MSU’s pass-rush has been feeble thus far, the Bulldogs at least attempt to hurry the quarterback’s process while depriving him the opportunity for big plays. If Manning does indeed get the start, is he going to be able, in one week, to flip on its head the way he played the first game to take advantage of the short and intermediate opportunities MSU’s defense leaves open for you?

These questions are of pressing importance in a rare SEC game where the underdog is being spotted nearly 40 points. We’re holding our noses and jumping.

The pick: Mississippi State +38.5

Colorado at UCF Pick and Prop

Simple handicap, here.

UCF’s offense wants to keep the ball on the ground – the Knights are one of the nation’s most run-happy teams outside of the service academies. Colorado has the exact-opposite offensive strategy – the Buffaloes only want to throw it. 

Colorado’s pass defense is wretched. But the Buffaloes’ run defense is much-improved – it ranks No. 41 in success rate and No. 49 in EPA/rush. That run defense should be enough to at least slow UCF’s hyper-tempo run game.

On the other side, UCF has a tremendous run defense. But UCF’s pass defense is terrible, ranking No. 104 in success rate and No. 98 in EPA/dropback. Colorado’s prolific passing attack should tee-off.

This is where the correlated Shedeur Sanders passing prop comes into play. Sanders is averaging 335 passing YPG through four games. UCF’s defense gives up the exact kind of completions that Sanders is hunting for, and the game-script isn’t likely to flip away from CU throwing the ball.

This is not the best situational spot for Colorado. The Buffaloes are traveling cross-country after its epic last-second Hail Mary forced OT in a win over Baylor last Saturday. Meanwhile, UCF comes in off a bye. 

But this is an advantageous on-field handicap for Colorado, and we’re getting value on the Buffaloes against what our system believes to be a fair-market price.

The picks: 

  • Colorado +14.5
  • QB Sanders Over 299.5 Passing Yards

Washington State at Boise State Pick

In an anticipated shootout – the total was 65.5 points at the time of writing – we believe there is solid value on getting Washington State at a touchdown-or-more on the spread.

Wazzu remains undefeated following a 54-52 OT win against San Jose State. On the same day, Boise State beat FCS Portland State 56-14.

To stick with Boise State, you must prevent RB Ashton Jeanty from running wild. While Wazzu’s pass defense has struggled thus far, the Cougars’ run defense has at least been adequate, ranking No. 68 in success rate and No. 34 in stuff rate.

Boise State has one of the nation’s best rushing offenses, of course. Jeanty is a problem. But BSU’s below-average passing game is likely to battle to a draw with Wazzu’s pass defense.

On the other side, Wazzu’s offense has shown to be both efficient (No. 22 marginal efficiency) and explosive (No. 10 marginal explosiveness), while being equally viable running and throwing. Wazzu QB1 John Mateer is a highly-dangerous scrambler.

Boise State’s defense has quietly struggled this year, currently ranking No. 76 SP+. That defense has struggled to defend both the run and the pass. In addition, Boise’s defense has struggled at both efficiency (No. 86) and preventing explosion (No. 73).

In its only two games against FBS opponents this year, Boise State allowed 45 points to Georgia Southern’s Air Raid in a non-cover victory, and 37 points to Oregon’s spread offense in a comfortable cover (but SU loss).

Wazzu’s Air Raid is likely to cause problems for Boise’s defense. That sets us up for a shootout. The over is worth a look – these teams are a combined 5-2 to the over – but we’re going to take what we feel is a generous amount of points with a live underdog.

The pick: Washington State +7

New Mexico State at New Mexico Pick and Prop

New Mexico State HC Tony Sanchez, a former NMSU player, has been talking all week about the importance of the Rio Grande Rivalry. He said that he’s addressed different facets of the historical rivalry with his team throughout practice this week.

Sanchez was on Jerry Kill’s NMSU staff the past two seasons when the Aggies beat the Lobos and ultimately went on to make a bowl game.

NMSU beat FCS SEMO in the opener, but has lost three-straight since. HC Bronco Mendenhall’s Lobos are 0-4, with losses to FCS Montana State and then a mini-gauntlet of Arizona, Auburn, and Fresno State.

The Aggies have already named Santino Marucci QB1 for Saturday. A Wake Forest transfer, Marucci is a skilled athlete and a very raw thrower. He struggled through the air last week against Sam Houston, but should be in a better situation this week with the expected return of C Canaan Yarro from injury. 

The injury to Yarro, a preseason Rimington Trophy Watch Lister – the nation's most outstanding center – had a cascading effect on last week’s offensive line. That’s because OT Shiyazh Pete, a 2023 All-Conference USA selection, is expected to be out until early-October with an ankle injury suffered in camp. 

With Yarro inactive last week, NMSU was forced to shuffle multiple offensive linemen to positions they weren’t experienced at to make it through. NMSU’s OL can now return to its early-season rotation.

New Mexico’s defense ranks dead-last in the FBS in SP+’s metrics. Opportunities will be available. The Lobos also rank bottom-five in special teams. This is a sneaky part of the game where NMSU could add points – the Aggies’ special teams ranks No. 22 SP+.

And while Mendenhall has raised the level of New Mexico’s offense with his quick-hitting passing game, NMSU’s biggest strength as a team – outside of special teams play – is its pass defense that ranks No. 31 in success rate.

We’re surprised the market is backing New Mexico to the degree that is in lieu of these circumstances. We see this as a coin-flip game that NMSU very much has a chance to win.

The pick: New Mexico State +7

Minnesota at Michigan Player Prop

Darius Taylor O/U 65.5 Rushing Yards

The Wolverines have one of the nation’s best run defenses. Through four games, the leading ball-carrier from the opposing team has posted the following rushing yardage against Michigan: 24, 36, 28, 100. That’s an average of 47 YPG.

Darius Taylor, meanwhile, is averaging 11.7 rushing attempts per game through three contests. Taylor was hampered throughout August with a hamstring pull, which is why he missed the opener against UNC. 

Taylor has been ceding touches to RB2 Marcus Major as the Gophers’ staff tries to go easy on his hamstring. Last week against Iowa, Taylor had 12 offensive touches, while Major had nine. Taylor finished that game with 34 rushing yards.

To get over this number against an elite run defense, Taylor is likely going to need at least 15 carries, something we haven’t seen yet. And even that might not be enough to get us over.

Between Taylor’s quasi-timeshare situation, the elite rushing defense he’s facing on the road in this matchup, and the expected gamescript (the Gophers opened +10), this number appears to be artificially inflated.

The pick: RB Taylor Under 65.5 Rushing Yards

Wisconsin at Rutgers Player Prop

Kyle Monangai O/U 101.5 Rushing Yards

Through three games, Monangai is averaging 152.3 rushing YPG. That’s including last week’s disappointing 83 rushing yards in Rutgers’ upset of Virginia Tech.

In this matchup, the 3-0 Scarlet Knights need to ride him. 

Washington is traveling across the country with one of the P4’s worst run defenses. The Huskies’ run defense ranks No. 114 in success rate and No. 106 in EPA/rush. Meanwhile, Washington’s pass defense is top-notch – Rutgers would be advised to avoid the air as much as possible on Saturday.

Monangai is averaging 24 rushing attempts per game. If he gets around that again – and he should, considering the circumstances – it would be stunning if he doesn’t breach this number against Washington’s leaky ground defense.

The pick: Monangai Over 101.5 Rushing Yards