Below are my best bets for this weekend in college football Week 3, a mix of picks on the spread and player props.
Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately – as they happen – into our college football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.
Note: “ATL” below stands for “Adjusted Thor Line” – my system’s spread. If you want a deeper dive into my system, we have a full college football game model based on my projections.
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Onto the picks!
College Football Best Bets for Week 3
Texas State vs. Arizona State Pick
Adjusted Thor Line: TSU -0.2
We believe that the wrong team is favored. The sharps in the market, who have conspired to drop this line from the open of Arizona State -2.5, appear to agree with us. At some books as of publish time, this game was being listed as a pick 'em in our college football odds tool.
Arizona State is off to a 2-0 start. Scheduling luck has contributed to that. In the opener, ASU hosted what appears to be a dead-on-arrival Wyoming team (Wyoming lost to FCS Idaho this past weekend at home).
Next, ASU hosted Mississippi State, one of the P4’s worst teams, in the Bulldogs’ second game under new HC Jeff Lebby. Arizona State was able to bleed the last five-plus minutes from the clock with its run game – more on that below – to escape with a 30-23 win.
Now, Arizona State — already playing with house money — travels to a Sun Belt opponent with everything to gain in this primetime spot. This is one of the biggest games in Texas State program history.
The Bobcats are 2-0. After this game, Texas State’s two highest-rated remaining opponents in my CFB Power Rankings are No. 76 Louisiana and No. 90 Arkansas State. Both at home. If Texas State beats Arizona State, it may become the G5’s favorite to earn the 12-team CFP entry.
This is also a good on-paper matchup for the Bobcats. Texas State’s balanced, up-tempo offensive system is adaptable to the opponent. So even if ASU’s run defense continues to play well, TSU’s pass game (more on this below as well) should pick up the slack.
On the other side of the ball, Texas State’s defense is very good at keeping opposing offenses off schedule (No. 8 marginal efficiency), but it has a clear weakness of allowing too many explosive plays (No. 125 IsoPPP). The Sun Devils offense, while efficient (No. 20 success rate), is categorically not explosive (No. 119 IsoPPP). That could make ASU points tougher to come by then the market is anticipating.
I’m also on the Texas State +105 moneyline.
The pick: Texas State +2
Texas State vs ASU Player Prop Picks
McCloud has attempted 27 or more passes in each of his first two games at Texas State while averaging 273.5 passing YPG. McCloud also threw an interception in both games. In the last 10 games last season, while at James Madison, McCloud attempted 31 or more passes nine times, going over this passing yardage number all nine times. McCloud was intercepted in eight of those 10 games, and 10 times total during that stretch (an average of one interception per game).
Thursday night’s game is expected to be close, with a neutral game script. McCloud gets passing volume in those. Texas State will additionally be incentivized to throw in order to attack ASU’s defensive weakness (pass defense) while avoiding ASU’s defensive strength (run).
Meanwhile, we’re fading Skattebo as much due to circumstances as the matchup. This past Saturday, against Mississippi State, Skattebo set career-highs in both caries (33) and offensive touches (36).
ASU used Skattebo to attack MSU’s shoddy run defense and shorten the game. Skattebo had 262 rushing yards and nearly 300 total yards (he led ASU in rushing and receiving). That’s why this number is inflated – Skattebo has cleared 100 yards rushing in only four of 14 FBS games.
It is asking a lot for Skattebo to bounce back and handle heavy usage again on short rest for this Thursday night road game. And heavy usage would appear to be Skattebo’s path to the over.
Texas State’s run defense ranks No. 26 in success rate and is top-3 in yards before contact. The Bobcats can get ripped for long runs (No. 117 in yards per successful rush), but Skattebo is not an overly-explosive runner.
The picks:
- TSU QB McCloud OVER 247.5 Passing Yards
- TSU QB McCloud OVER 0.5 Interceptions
- ASU RB Skattebo UNDER 102.5 Rushing Yards
Kennesaw State at San Jose State Pick
Adjusted Thor Line: SJSU -13.4
SJSU beat FCS Sacramento State in the opener, then “upset” the worst Air Force team we’ve seen in years. SJSU HC Ken Niumatalolo’s experience with the triple-option helped with that.
In the first two games, SJSU held opposing QBs to a 1/4 TD/INT ratio and 233 passing yards on 61 attempts (3.8 YPA). Air Force cannot throw, and Sacramento State has not yet been able to settle on a quarterback.
SJSU has benefited from flipped game scripts against poor opponents that have forced those bad opponents to play left-handed.
San Jose State is a middling No. 84 in defensive rushing success rate. Kennesaw State wants to establish the run. The key for the Owls will be carving out enough rushing efficiency to keep this gamescript neutral through the third quarter. That would prevent the Owls’ mediocre passing attack from being forced to throw heavily into an SJSU pass defense that has proved opportunistic against bad passing offenses.
This will be Kennesaw’s third game as an FBS member. In the first two, KSU went 1-1 ATS and lost to a pair of G5 bowl teams by an average of 18 points. Our CFB power rankings rate both of those opponents – UTSA and Louisiana – 14 spots or higher above San Jose State.
The pick: Kennesaw State +19.5
FIU at FAU Pick
Adjusted Thor Line: FAU -4.5
Florida Atlantic has been disappointing through two weeks. The Owls managed to stay reasonably close to Michigan State in the opener, greatly aided by the Spartans’ new passing game pieces struggling to acclimate. Last week, FAU was dominated, 24-7, by one-dimensional Army.
Army completed just one pass.
Instead, the Black Knights lit up FAU for over 400 yards rushing. For the second straight week, FAU struggled to generate offense. The reason? The entire offense is running through limited scrambler QB Cam Fancher. FAU doesn’t have a running game without him, but Fancher doesn’t throw well enough to keep defenses from keying on him.
While FAU appears to have a solid pass defense, it has been getting ripped on the ground. The Owls are fifth-worst in YPC allowed (6.1) and second-worst in rushing YPG allowed (292.0).
Florida International, coming off an emphatic 52-10 win over CMU, has a decent three-RB stable along with dual-threat QB Keyone Jenkins. FIU should be able to exploit FAU’s generous run defense.
FIU is also well-coached. Thus far, the Panthers have only turned the ball over once, while its defense has generated six turnovers. FIU is well-suited to take advantage of an FAU team struggling to find an offensive identity.
The pick: FIU +5.5
Toledo at Mississippi State Picks
Adjusted Thor Line: MSU -8.9
We’re expecting a wild shootout that is decided late. Both teams are running at top-20 adjusted tempos in the FBS. And both teams’ offensive strengths lean into the opposing defense’s weakness.
Toledo has a solid run defense, but a mediocre pass defense, with former star CB Quinyon Mitchell now in the NFL. Through two games against poor opponents, Toledo’s pass defense is No. 68 in success rate and No. 80 in EPA/dropback.
Passing is all Mississippi State wants to do. The Bulldogs have a solid passing offense – they just can’t run the ball at all.
On the other side of the ball, Toledo’s typically-strong rushing offense ranks No. 26 in success rate. While Mississippi State’s pass defense has looked good in the early-going, MSU’s run defense has been an abomination, ranking No. 130 in success rate.
In what appears to be a competitive on-paper matchup, both offenses have wide-open paths to success, and both will get plenty of chances in a projected hyper-tempo-paced game.
The picks:
- Toledo +12.5
- Toledo-MSU OVER 59.5
UCF at TCU Pick
Adjusted Thor Line: UCF -2
TCU actually opened as the 1.5-point favorite. But the market quickly, and correctly, flipped that. At publishing time, it was up to UCF -2.5. We believe UCF is playable at that number.
UCF has one of the nation’s most dangerous rushing attacks. The Knights rank No. 4 in rushing success rate, and their hyper-tempo system currently sits No. 13 in adjusted tempo. If you cannot defend the run, you’re going to have a long day versus UCF.
TCU’s run defense is a large part of the reason why we faded TCU against Stanford in the opener. We cashed that ticket. Former Boise State HC Andy Avalos, now TCU’s DC, transitioned the Frogs from former DC Joe Gillespie’s 3-3-5 to a 4-2-5. TCU lost its best DL, Damonic Williams, to Oklahoma in the offseason.
Stanford has a mediocre passing attack, and it doesn’t have much talent in the RB room. However, against TCU, Cardinal QB Ashton Daniels rushed for 120 yards when you omit sack yardage.
This sets up to be a big day on the ground for dual-threat UCF QB KJ Jefferson and the devastating RB duo of RJ Harvey/Peny Boone.
The pick: UCF -1.5
Memphis at Florida State Pick
Adjusted Thor Line: FSU -3.6
Following Florida State’s 0-2 start, our numbers do not believe the market has gone far enough in downgrading the Seminoles.
In our updated power rankings, FSU and Memphis are separated by less than one point. The rest of our projected spread accounts for FSU’s home field advantage. But how much of an advantage will home field be in this game if Memphis is competitive with FSU into the second half?
FSU fans are mad at Mike Norvell right now. If the Seminoles begin struggling with Memphis, the program Norvell left when he took FSU’s HC job, the faithful could turn on the Seminoles.
And while the motivation of G5 road teams heading into a P4 stadium can sometimes be scrutinized, Memphis has far more skin in the game in this one than FSU does. By the odds, Memphis has been one of the G5’s frontrunners to earn the auto-bid into the new 12-team CFP.
This is the last game on the schedule where our system gives Memphis less than a coin flip chance of winning (41%).
Florida State, on the other hand, feels like its on the precipice of packing it in. After going 13-0 in the regular season last year, our system now projects Florida State for 4.8 wins. Even if FSU wins this game, our system would still not project a bowl appearance.
As for the on-field handicap, Memphis’ defense has been stout against the run – that’s the one area FSU needs to have success in order to move the ball due to the Seminoles’ feeble passing attack (more on that below).
And on the other side, Memphis’ balanced offense should be able to move the ball against FSU’s wildly underachieving defense.
The pick: Memphis +6.5
Memphis at Florida State Player Prop Picks
Player prop handicapping can be trickier than handicapping sides due to the unpredictable nature of play-calling tendencies when gamescripts flip. I try to isolate prop bets to the ones that have numerous roads to cashing, and only a few that will result in a loss.
That’s what we have here. As you already know, Florida State has been one of the P4’s least-efficient passing offenses thus far. The Seminoles have categorically been unable to throw the ball downfield, and Uiagalelei only has one passing TD on 69 attempts through two games. For whatever it's worth, my most-recent Power Rankings rank Memphis comfortably ahead of those two opponents (Georgia Tech and Boston College).
Florida State cannot afford to run its offense through Uiagalelei here. FSU needs to have success running, and it needs to take care of the ball. And with FSU RB Jaylin Lucas now out for the year, Uiagalelei has one less outlet who is capable of evading multiple defenders after a screen pass to reach the house.
But we have one other clear path to a win. If Uiagalelei struggles early and Memphis stakes out to a lead at halftime, we may see FSU QB2 Brock Glenn summoned off the bench to give a jolt to the passing game. Uiagalelei’s grip on the starting job at this point is tenuous at best.
I also lean the under on Uiagalelei’s passing yardage (208.5). But there are more paths to Uiagalelei crossing that number regardless of performance – see the Boston College game – so we’re going to stick with the higher-percentage play.
The pick: QB Uiagalelei UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Recapping College Football Picks and Prop Bets for Week 3
Recapping each of the picks made above, for an easy-to-use guide to place your wagers this weekend.
NCAAF Week 3 Picks
- Texas State +2
- Kennesaw State +19.5
- FIU +5.5
- Toledo +12.5
- Toledo/MSU over 59.5
- UCF -1.5
- Memphis +6.5
NCAAF Week 3 Props
- Jordan McCloud over 247.7 passing yards
- Jordan McCloud over 0.5 interceptions
- Cam Skattebo under 102.5 rushing yards
- DJ Uiagalelei under 1.5 passing touchdowns
