College Football Playoff National Championship: Ohio State (13-2) vs. Notre Dame (14-1)

  • Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
  • January 20, 2025, 7:30 PM EST, ESPN
  • Spread: Ohio State -8
  • Adjusted Thor Line (ATL): Ohio State -5.1
  • Total: 46.5

When Notre Dame has the ball

Notre Dame will have the services of RB Jeremiyah Love (knee) in this game, HC Marcus Freeman confirmed. Love has had 10 days rest since the semis, but will assuredly not be 100 percent again. Outside of Love’s 98-yard TD run in Round 1 versus Indiana, the Irish RBs have been quiet in the CFP.

This is partly due to Love playing through injury. And partly due to mounting injuries on a reshuffled offensive line. Starting Irish freshman LT Anthonie Knapp, who suffered a high-ankle sprain in the semis, will miss this game. Freeman believes starting RG Rocco Spindler – who suffered an ankle injury against Penn State – has a chance to play. Starting C Ashton Craig was already out for the season with a torn left ACL.

But in a beautiful piece of symmetry, Knapp’s replacement for the Ohio State game appears to be… Charles Jagusah! Jagusah, the original starting LT and an NFL prospect, was recently able to return from his “season-ending” torn pectoral muscle from training camp... only because Notre Dame’s season hasn’t ended yet.

Ohio State probably has the nation’s best defense. The Buckeyes rank No. 1 EPA/play defensively, and are top-3 EPA/play against both the pass and the run. It is exceedingly difficult to move the ball on the ground against the Buckeyes. 

Ohio State allows just 3.9 YPC. The Buckeyes have an elite DL, fronted by EDGEs Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau, and iDL Tyleik Williams. All-American S Caleb Downs is used as a sideline-to-sideline fixer against the run, lining up 8-10 deep over the ball and aggressively running allies. If Downs is needed on a running play, he is generally the one to end it.

That’s the bad news for Notre Dame and its run-first offense. The good news is that there are two paths to moving the ball against OSU. First, you must figure out how to manufacture yards on the ground – in non-traditional ways, if necessary. The Penn State game from early November is a good example of this. 

Penn State utterly abandoned its traditional run game — RBs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton were held to a paltry combined 42 rushing yards — but the Nittany Lions had multiple opportunities to force OT or outright beat OSU. That was in part because PSU still scratched out 120 yards on the ground. How? TE Tyler Warren and QB Drew Allar combined for 78 rushing yards that day.

Allar, not really a scrambler, had 31 of those yards. That was Allar’s second-highest rushing output of the season. Interestingly, Allar was one of four quarterbacks in the regular season who posted either their best or second-best rushing outputs of the season against Ohio State – Akron’s Tahj Bullock had 42, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel had 31, and Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola had 31. A fifth, Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava, did it in the CFP, when he ran for 47 against the Buckeyes.

It goes without saying that Notre Dame is going to need QB Riley Leonard to manufacture yards on the ground to remain competitive in this game. If Leonard isn’t over 10 rushing yards by the end of the first quarter, Notre Dame is in trouble. I like Leonard’s chances of breaching his 35.5 rushing yard number in the prop market.

Against Ohio State this year, RBs Kaleb Johnson, Jordan James, Devin Mockobee, and Tyson Lawton all got to at least 73 rushing yards on at least 5.0 YPC. Kalel Mullings was the other success story with 116 and a TD on 3.6 YPC in Michigan’s upset win. 

Ohio State has shut down basically every other RB it has faced, including James in the B1G title rematch. In that game, James had seven carries for 14 yards. Gabriel went 29-for-41 for 299 yards, two TD, and no INT, but it didn't matter because Oregon ran for -23 yards as a team. Because of that, and because Love is very clearly not 100-percent, we’re fading Love in the prop market.

The other area you can exploit Ohio State’s defense is downfield toward the sidelines – one-on-one shots deep against their boundary corners. Ohio State’s defense is built like an old cliché of baseball defense: Strength up the middle. That’s where the stars are, and that’s how the scheme was designed – shut off the spigot to your run game while ratcheting up the heat on your quarterback. 

Where that leaves Ohio State thin is downfield towards the boundaries. CB Denzel Burke, who did not play in the second half against Texas Longhorns due to what HC Ryan Day labeled an "upper extremity issue," is likely to play in the national title, per Ohio State DC Jim Knowles. You can bet that Notre Dame will try to test him.

ND WR Jaden Greathouse broke out in the semis, dropping a career-high seven receptions and 105 receiving yards on Penn State. With WR Beaux Collins dinged-up – Collins did not play against Penn State and was limited prior to that – Greathouse has assumed the downfield role in the offense. We are backing Greathouse in the prop market, while fading Collins, who we expect to see limited snaps if he plays at all.

When Ohio State has the ball

Notre Dame ranks No. 2 in the country with a mere 14.3 PPG allowed. The Irish only trail Ohio State (12.2 PPG). Notre Dame’s defense is similar to its offensive line, in that it has continued to play admirably while injuries have piled up. 

Notre Dame starting EDGE Jordan Botelho (knee) was lost for the season early, and his replacement, EDGE Boubacar Traore, was knocked out for the season roughly a month later. Projected first-rounder CB Benjamin Morrison, a second-team AP All-American in 2023, is out for the year with a hip injury.

The Texas Longhorns’ defense didn’t achieve many goals against Ohio State in the semis. The one area where it did? The Longhorns shut down freshman sensation Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (one reception for three yards).Texas gave whichever CB was lined up across from Smith over-the-top help.

Texas’ gambit with Smith, of course, opened things up for his teammates. WR3 Carnell Tate exploded for a 7-87-0 line, Emeka Egbuka had five for 51, and RB TreVeyon Henderson had his game-changing 75-yard catch-and-run score right before halftime.

Texas plays a heavy zone-coverage scheme, while Notre Dame is flipped, with heavy man-coverage tendencies. We expect things to even out for Ohio State’s passing game – for Smith and Tate to return to their normal usage patterns. For this reason, we fade Tate in the prop market at his semis-taxed numbers.

Notre Dame’s aggressive coverage strategy is designed to throw off the timing of the opposition. The Irish’s pass defense ranks No. 1 in success rate, No. 4 in yards/dropback, No. 2 in adjusted air yards per attempt, and No. 1 overall in EPA/dropback. CB Ben Morrison’s replacement, under-recruited three-star freshman CB Leonard Moore, has been a revelation, leading the team in pass breakups.

Where you can beat Notre Dame’s pass defense is downfield – the Irish rank No. 74 in marginal explosiveness. This is why we took a stab on Smith’s over 29.5-yard longest reception. Smith’s young-Julio Jones-game is highlighted by his ability to win one-on-one contested situations downfield. He’s going to get his opportunities against Notre Dame. Texas played pick-our-poison with Ohio State’s offense. Notre Dame isn’t going to sell out in that way.

Ohio State QB Will Howard has elevated his game in the postseason, averaging 306 YPG passing on 73.6% completions with a 6/2 TD/INT rate. One crucial aspect to Howard’s success has been the improved play of the offensive line protecting him.

Following season-ending injuries to LT Josh Simmons and C Seth McLaughlin, Howard took two-or-more sacks in three straight games against Nebraska, Penn State, and Purdue, with the latter two opponents each generating 10 pressures. Ohio State’s reshuffled offensive line then appeared to improve for a couple games before collapsing against Michigan’s upper-tier defensive line in the regular season finale, with Howard being pressured a whopping 17 times.

But Ohio State’s offensive line has been exceptional in the three CFP games, allowing only two sacks total. Texas, the last opponent, had the most success, accumulating 11 pressures. Notre Dame, which ranks No. 2 in pressure rate, simply must speed up Howard’s clock. Howard has a 91.3 PFF grade in clean pockets, and a 49.8 PFF grade under pressure. 

The Irish, who rank No. 33 in blitz rate, may crank up the volume on the blitz packages on Monday night. We’ve cashed two straight under tickets on Howard’s rushing prop, and we’re returning to that well with the anticipation that he’s sacked multiple times on Monday (in college, sack yardage is deducted from the quarterback’s rushing total).

Notre Dame’s run defense is a solid No. 20 EPA/run. But its profile is flipped from its pass defense – you can churn out efficiency on the ground against Notre Dame (No. 63 success rate), but the Irish take away explosive runs. 

For this reason, we lean toward a contradictory pairing of OSU RB Quinshon Judkins’ over and RB TreVeyon Henderson’s under in the rushing yardage market – both are currently set in the mid-50s, with Henderson priced a few yards higher. 

I haven’t quite gotten to the window on those – as you can see below, we already have a laundry list of tickets purchased on this game! – but may by kickoff. If you’re interested in bets I add to my card between now and then, pull up my profile in Fantasy Life’s Bet Tracker.

Final Word

In a game between arguably the nation’s two best defenses, we’re taking the points with Notre Dame in what we expect to be a ground-heavy, heavy-hitting, low-scoring game. We expect each offense to connect on a few downfield shots, but we think most of the game’s air yardage will come from those, with a treacherous path to passing efficiency on each side.

Let's call it Ohio State 23, Notre Dame 17

Thor’s Bets

Notre Dame +8.5

Notre Dame-Ohio State Under 46.5

Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard Over 35.5 Rushing Yards

Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love Under 45.5 Rushing Yards

Notre Dame WR Jaden Greathouse Over 20.5 Receiving Yards

Notre Dame WR Jaden Greathouse Over 12.5 Yard Longest Reception

Notre Dame WR Jaden Greathouse anytime TD (+650)

Notre Dame WR Beaux Collins Under 15.5 Receiving Yards

Ohio State QB Will Howard Under 12.5 Rushing Yards

Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson Under 2.5 Receptions

Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith Over 29.5 Yard Longest Reception

Ohio State WR Carnell Tate Under 3.5 Receptions 

Ohio State WR Carnell Tate Under 40.5 Receiving Yards