Florida State (-10.5) vs. Georgia Tech (Ireland) | Total: 55.5

Thor’s line: FSU -14.5 | Thor’s total: 58.5

Lots of moving pieces, here!

Florida State has a new look after losing 10 players in April’s NFL Draft, one short of the ACC record. FSU may not see much of a qualitative QB1 drop-off from Jordan Travis to DJ Uiagalelei, though. The skill positions are another story.

FSU lost RB Trey Benson, WRs Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman, and TE Jaheim Bell. Head Coach Mike Norvell is praying the Alabama duo he plucked out of the portal—RB Roydell Williams and WR Malik Benson—will both have breakout seasons. The WR room appears to be shaky behind Benson. The good news is FSU’s OL is elite—four starters and 190 career FBS starts return from a Joe Moore semifinalist unit last season.

Uiagalelei will have plenty of time to throw on Saturday. Georgia Tech’s already-feeble pass rush got worse when EDGE Kyle Kennard and DT D’Quan Douse transferred out. The Yellow Jackets return a mere three sacks from last year’s team. In the secondary, GT has a pair of strong starting safeties, but the CBs are unproven.

FSU’s pass defense is going to be one of the best in the country. The book-end pass rushers—Patrick Payton and Marvin Jones Jr.—are a nasty duo. In this game, dual-threat GT QB Haynes King will try to avoid them while throwing into one of the nation’s best secondaries.

King had over 3,500 yards of total offense last year, but he needs to cut down on the sacks and turnovers. In this game, the Jackets are going to try to avoid FSU’s pass defense by making ample use of King’s legs, and pounding the ball to RB Jamal Haynes behind an OL that returns four starters.

I have a tough time with Georgia Tech. Yes, it broke through with a 7-6 season in HC Brent Key’s first campaign. But the Yellow Jackets easily could have finished 4-8—they were gifted the Miami win, and needed fortune on their side to top UNC.

Though our system shows a bit of value on FSU now that the line has been driven down to -10.5, we’re electing to pass due to uncertainty about how quickly FSU will coalesce in this overseas game. 

We do, however, like a pair of player props. Georgia Tech can be had on the ground, and FSU’s passing game may take some time to acclimate. With an expected two-RB platoon, we see value in RB2 Lawrance Toafili’s number. We’re also going to fade WR Benson in his FSU debut at a healthy projection.

We considered an over on Haynes King’s rushing—he went over his 41.5 number in 9-of-13 games last year—but we are going to pass due to FSU’s fierce pass rush. In college, sack yardage is deducted from run yards.

The picks: FSU RB Lawrence Toafili OVER 43.5 rushing yards | FSU WR Malik Benson UNDER 60.5 receiving yards

***

Nevada (+24.5) vs. SMU | Total: 56.5

Thor’s line: SMU -25.4 | Thor’s total: 57.0

Until recently, this number was closer to a four-TD spread. Comments from SMU’s staff regarding backups getting playing time quickly conspired to push it down.

SMU went 11-3 last season in the ACC and ranks No. 11 in returning production. SMU’s 2023 offense finished top-25 on a per-play basis. In the prop market, SMU QB1 Preston Stone’s passing yardage is down to 230.5, a drop of nearly 100 yards since open. 

That’s due to SMU declaring publicly that QB2 Kevin Jennings will play. It’s hard to say when SMU will tell Stone to hit the showers, so that deflated number is a pass for us.

Nevada has 12 returning starters from last year’s mess, but new HC Jeff Choate signed a top-15 G5 portal haul. Nevada QB1 Brendon Lewis doesn’t have a lot of skill talent to work with. But Nevada does have a decent OL. 

The strength of Nevada’s defense is the LB unit, which returns Nevada’s top-two tacklers from last year. The DL and secondary, on the other hand, could both be problematic. 

With SMU tipping off its preference to get the second-string work on Saturday, we think there’s value on RB2 LJ Johnson at his current number. SMU recently lost RB3 Camar Wheaton to a season-ending knee injury, shortening the RB rotation. And with this game projected to be a blowout, Johnson should get plenty of work.

We’re also going to take a flier on Nevada QB1 Brendon Lewis at a reasonable passing number. QB2 Chubba Purdy might not be active due to a shoulder injury, so Nevada may ride Lewis for four quarters regardless of the outcome. 

This game script should flip pass-heavy very quickly. Last year, Lewis attempted 24 or more passes four times, including an analogous 2023 opener at USC. SMU’s defensive weakness is its secondary—and there’s a possibility it will be populated with second-stringers as early as the third quarter.

The plays: SMU LJ Johnson OVER 51.5 rushing yards | Nevada QB Brendon Lewis OVER 139.5 passing yards