Welcome to Week 1! 

Below are my eight best bets of this weekend in college football Week 1, a mix of picks on the spread and player props. 

Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately – as they happen – onto Fantasy Life’s Bet Tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.

Note: “ATL” below stands for “Adjusted Thor Line” – my system’s spread.

Onto the picks!

Minnesota (+1.5) vs. North Carolina (Thursday)

  • ATL: Minnesota -3

The market reacted aggressively to injury rumors on the Minnesota side, flipping the favorites. This line got as high as UNC -2.5 before settling back.

We’ve been aware – and the Gophers’ staff has been aware – of RB Darius Taylor’s hamstring issue for weeks. Taylor is apparently pushing to play in this game. If he does, it will be at less than 100%, setting up a timeshare with RB Sieh Bangura. Minnesota’s strong OL should guarantee that any configuration has success.

We believe the Gophers’ passing game will be much upgraded (as discussed below).

It’s putting a lot of faith – in our opinion too much faith – in the Tar Heels to install them as a primetime road favorite against a quality opponent in the opener. This is a team with a reconfigured offense – the passing attack will fall off a shelf this fall – and a longtime sore spot of a defense.

We think the Gophers “upset” UNC on Thursday night in a result that won’t be an upset at all.

The Pick: Minnesota +1.5

Stanford (+9.5) vs. TCU (Friday)

  • ATL: TCU -7

After three consecutive 3-9 seasons, it feels like Stanford’s time to take a legitimate step forward. Last year, Stanford quietly played an absolute gantlet of a schedule – it ranked No. 2 SP+ at season’s end.

This year, the Cardinals rank No. 2 in the country in returning production, with 18 starters back.

Stanford’s offense will be significantly improved in HC Troy Taylor’s second season. Dual-threat QB Ashton Daniels had a great offseason. Daniels’ pass-catching corps is legitimately good, beginning with Day 2 NFL Draft prospect WR Elic Ayomanor.

Springing this home upset would be absolutely enormous for Stanford. Following next week’s game against an FCS opponent, Stanford’s schedule gets nasty – my system has a 25% or less win expectancy in eight of nine games immediately after that. This isn’t your typical Week 1 game – Taylor knows that if Stanford loses it, the chances of rallying into a bowl are remote.

I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from TCU since its stunning run to the CFP title game in 2022. Last year, the Frogs fell off a shelf to 5-7. Over the offseason, TCU elected to hand the starting QB gig to Josh Hoover instead of bringing in competition – a decision they could come to regret.

Speaking of regrets, we have mixed feelings about TCU’s decision to hand the defense over to former Boise State HC Andy Avalos. We did not like the things we heard about Avalos at Boise, and some of his coaching decisions baffled us.

Avalos was indeed a Broyles semifinalist as a DC back in the day at Oregon. It’s also true that TCU’s beleaguered defense might not be immediately equipped to transition from former DC Joe Gillespie’s 3-3-5 to Avalos’ 4-2-5. Particularly with TCU’s best defensive lineman, Damonic Williams, leaving for Oklahoma over the offseason.

My suggestion is to wait on this to see if a +10 pops up for extra value. But either way, I’m on Stanford from +7 upwards.

The Pick: Stanford +9.5

James Madison (-7) at Charlotte

  • ATL: JMU -10.5

Earlier this week, this line sat at JMU -6.5. On Tuesday morning, after Charlotte HC Biff Poggi told reporters that 8-9 starters were injured, we hit this line at -7. It has now hit -8 and is climbing.

Even before the injury news, our line on this game was JMU -8. With the injuries, we believe this line is playable up to -10. 

We believe it’s fair to have some questions about James Madison heading into the season – the Dukes are playing their first game under a new HC, and they’re replacing a metric-ton of starters. That said, new HC Bob Chesney is an experienced winner, and the roster he constructed this offseason appears on paper to have enough talent to challenge for an entry into the Sun Belt title game.

Charlotte, on the other hand, was already one of the FBS’ least-talented teams. Coming off consecutive 3-9 seasons, the 49ers were aggressive in the portal this offseason. But losing that many starters from a roster already lacking in depth may submarine Charlotte from viability in this game before it has even kicked off.

The Pick: James Madison -7

Arkansas State (-9.5) vs. Central Arkansas

  • ATL: ASU -16.9

Arkansas State’s fortunes changed last year after QB Jaylen Raynor took over following an 0-2 start. The Red Wolves went 6-4 in the last 10 games to rally into bowl season, with all four losses coming against fellow bowl teams.

This fall, ASU returns 16 starters, including 10 on offense. That’s a lot of experienced talent for a team that has recruited exceedingly well. HC Butch Jones signed the Sun Belt’s No. 2 recruiting class in 2022, and its No. 1 class in 2023.

It’s not just that. Raynor, a sophomore, is the only projected starter on the team who is not either a junior or senior. It would appear that it’s wheels up for ASU to continue the momentum it started generating last season.

Beyond that, we’re almost assuredly going to see defensive improvement from last year’s 30.4 PPG allowed. That was the lowest number ASU had given up in the last five seasons, and I believe ASU will slash it under 30 PPG in 2024 for the first time since the 2010s. 

Lastly, ASU has had top-20 national special teams units all three of Jones’ seasons at ASU and is likely to again.

None of this should be taken as disrespect to Central Arkansas. The Bears finished 7-4 last season and sit No. 21 in my preseason FCS power rankings. I just don’t think they have enough talent to keep this one within single digits.

The Pick: Arkansas State -9.5

Florida (+3) vs. Miami

  • ATL: Miami -1.7

No disrespect to Miami, a team that we think is going to win the ACC.

We just like Florida a lot more than the market does. The public is fading the Gators in part because of its No. 1 strength of schedule, and the pessimism that manifests with regards to HC Billy Napier’s job security. 

But that gauntlet schedule makes this a rare must-win opener for Florida. The Gators, improved along both trenches, have the manpower to fight Miami in a phone booth. And the Gators’ skill talent is getting slept on.

Both of these teams are much improved. But we see Florida ambushing the new-look Hurricanes, who assuredly will have to go through an acclimation process as new faces get acquainted with one another, to score the Week 1 mini-upset.

The Pick: Florida +3

Dallan Hayden (RB, Colorado) - Under 37.5 Rushing Yards

  • vs. North Dakota State | Thursday

This one comes down to three factors:

1) Hayden, an Ohio State transfer, was running as RB2 all camp behind holdover RB Charlie Offerdahl, whom the staff seems to trust more. And while we think Hayden gets early-down looks while Offerdahl is the undisputed passing back in a pass-dominant offense, he’s unlikely to get many opportunities to crack this number.

2) North Dakota State has a strong run defense, while Colorado’s new-look offensive line is breaking in several new starters (and praying it is better than last year).

3) North Dakota State’s offense is run-heavy and clock-controlling, while Colorado’s run defense was terrible last year. If nothing else, this will slash possessions and offensive plays on both sides beyond a normal game script.

The Pick: Hayden Under 37.5 Rushing Yards

Max Brosmer (QB, Minnesota) Over 173.5 Passing Yards

  • vs. North Carolina | Thursday

The Gophers targeted Brosmer, formerly RB Dylan Laube’s quarterback at New Hampshire, immediately upon the end of last season, offering him a scholarship while former QB1 Athan Kaliakmanis was still on the roster. Brosmer’s acceptance of that scholarship triggered Kaliakmanis’ subsequent exit in the transfer portal (Kaliakmanis is now Rutgers’ QB1).

Minnesota wanted an upgrade at quarterback, and word out of the Gophers’ building is that they have it. This should lead to a legitimate step forward for the passing game, which last year became hyper-risk-averse to work around Kaliakmanis’ limitations.

The opener is a great scenario for Brosmer’s launch. 

North Carolina ranked No. 90 nationally in passing success rate allowed last year, and No. 103 in completion percentage allowed. And UNC’s up-tempo offense – No. 7 in adjusted pace last year – gets that defense out on the field for more plays.

On top of that, Minnesota RB Darius Taylor was compromised all camp with a hamstring issue. If he plays, Taylor will be at less than 100-percent. Between that, and UNC’s pass defense being the weakness of the entire unit, you can expect Minnesota’s game script to be more pass-heavy from the outset than we’ve seen since at least Tanner Morgan’s graduation.

And in what is expected to be a close game (UNC is favored by under a field goal) against a strong offensive team that plays at tempo, an advantageous game script for Brosmer should hold for four quarters. 

This line is a nod to the Kaliakmanis offense, not the current one. There’s value on the over.

The pick: QB Brosmer Over 173.5 Passing Yards

Dylan Raiola (QB, Nebraska) - Under 245.5 Passing Yards | Under 25.5 Rushing Yards

  • vs. UTEP

It’s asking quite a bit for a true freshman in his first collegiate start, taking over a bad offense, to go over either of these numbers. 

The rushing yardage number, in particular, feels excessively high for Raiola, a pure pocket-passer who doesn’t like to leave the pocket (remember: sack yardage is deducted from college QBs’ rushing totals).

And while Nebraka’s opponent, UTEP, is one of the FBS’ worst teams, we’re not actually sure that helps Raiola’s cause, here. Nebraska can win this one with a patented conservative Rhule approach, keeping the ball on the ground on offense while shutting down the Miners’ offense on the other side of the ball.

And if things get out of hand, as expected, you’d think that Rhule would use the second half to get his backups some playing time. Raiola’s backup, Heinrich Haarberg, was the starter last year – getting Haarberg on the field in the opener, even during mop-up time, should be a priority, if only as a peace offering for sticking around.

Rhule won’t have many more opportunities to do so with the brutal Big 10 schedule right around the corner.

The Picks: QB Raiola Under 245.5 Passing Yards | Under 25.5 Rushing Yards

Colorado (-9) vs. North Dakota State (Thursday)

  • ATL: Colorado -10.8

On appearances the past few weeks, I’ve cryptically mentioned that NDSU had a key injury that was going to compromise their secondary – bad news against Colorado. 

Now that the Bison have gone public with the news, we can name the player: FCS All-American S Cole Wisniewski, who turned down NIL offers from big FBS programs over the offseason, will be out for the foreseeable future after undergoing foot surgery.

For an NDSU team tasked with stopping Colorado’s premier passing attack, this is a cruel twist. The Buffaloes’ WR corps goes four-deep in high-end starters.

Colorado greatly improved this offseason along both trenches, a necessity after they got licked along the lines last fall. The Buffs’ vaunted passing attack is going to provide an enormous challenge for an NDSU secondary that is not full-strength.

On the other side of the ball, North Dakota State hopes to keep the ball on the ground and pound away at Colorado’s defensive front. Last year, that front was putrid. But the Buffaloes signed multiple insta-starters along the defensive front in the transfer portal. We won’t know the exact quality of that front until we’ve seen a few games, but it is indisputably better than it was a year ago.

If Colorado can stake out a lead, NDSU could find the game script slipping from them early in a way that forces the Bison out of their comfort zone.

I understand why some were calling for an upset in this spot. But NDSU is not quite as strong as it used to be during its title-winning haydays, the Bison are not 100%, Colorado is improved, and the Buffaloes are not only taking this game seriously, but they’re viewing it as an opportunity to make a national statement.

The pick: Colorado -9