College Football Week 11 Best Bets: Alabama-LSU SEC Showdown
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
After weeks of speculation, we finally got our first taste of the projected 12-team College Football bracket. There weren’t many surprises. The SEC and Big Ten would both get four teams if the tournament started today, leaving one bid each for the Big 12, ACC, and Notre Dame. Boise State is the current leader in the clubhouse for the Group of Five bid.
That said, we all know that things change quickly in College Football. Clemson was looking like a lock for the playoffs after rattling off six straight wins, but a loss last week to Louisville has all but ended that dream.
More teams are going to have their hopes vanquished over the final few weeks of the season, starting in Week 11. Three SEC schools are essentially in “win or go home” mode this week: Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss. All three teams have two losses and are currently ranked between 11 and 16 in the current standings. If they win out, there’s a good chance they’ll get to state their case in the playoffs. But one more loss almost certainly leaves them on the outside looking in.
Ole Miss will be fighting an uphill battle against Georgia, but as just 2.5-point home underdogs, it’s certainly not dead. A win there drops Georgia from the “safely in” tier to the bubble, which would create further chaos.
Alabama and LSU will square off in the most important showdown of the week. It has a true playoff feel, and whoever wins becomes a favorite to make the field of 12. Neither squad has a ranked opponent left on their schedule, so they should be able to cross the finish line.
Ultimately, this is why the SEC reigns supreme. Every week features another matchup between heavy hitters, and it sets up an exhilarating finish to the regular season.
Let’s dive into Alabama-LSU and two other must-see games from CFB Week 11.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The best College Football games for your Saturday viewing pleasure
- Thor Nystrom’s Best Bets for CFB Week 11
- Watercooler: Favorites and Longshots to win the NCAA Championship.
The Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football Week 11
by Matt LaMarca
Michigan at Indiana (-14.5)—3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
If you haven’t been paying attention, this spread probably looks pretty egregious. The defending champs are getting more than two touchdowns against the Hoosiers? Are you sure we’re playing football and not basketball?
However, Indiana is legit, folks. They’re undefeated, and they’re all the way up to No. 8 in the CFP rankings. The Hoosiers haven’t played a particularly tough schedule to date, but they’ve absolutely steamrolled their opponents. They finally trailed for the first time this season last week vs. Michigan State, but they proceeded to rattle off 47 unanswered points for a 37-point victory. They’ve covered the spread in eight of their nine wins, so they’re beating opponents by margin.
Can they keep it going? Michigan has had a down year, but this is still Michigan. Beating the Wolverines would earn the Hoosiers a smidge more respect in some people’s eyes and give them a shot of confidence before facing Ohio State in two weeks.
Colorado (-4.5) at Texas Tech—4 p.m. ET on Fox
Say what you want about Coach Prime, but he has the Buffaloes relevant for the first time in ages. They’re 6-2 overall and 5-1 in the Big 12, giving them a chance to contend for the conference title in their first year.
Part of that is due to Texas Tech, which handed Iowa State its first conference loss just last week. The Red Raiders had dropped two straight prior to that outing, so they’ll look to keep things rolling with another win vs. a ranked opponent.
Travis Hunter has become must-see TV, while Texas Tech is No. 20 nationally in points per game. This has the potential to be a really fun contest, and if Colorado wins, a shot at the Big 12 championship and potential playoff berth is officially live.
Alabama (-2.5) at LSU—7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
While the other two games serve as a nice appetizer, this is undoubtedly the main course. There’s no love lost between these two programs, which have been two of the most successful over the past 20 years.
Somehow, Alabama is still looking for its first road win in conference play this season. It has already lost at Vanderbilt and at Tennessee, and heading into Death Valley for a night game is no joke.
For the Tigers, they’ll have to prove they can stop a dual-threat quarterback after getting torn to shreds by Marcel Reed two weeks ago. Jalen Milroe is a better version of Reed, but the team has at least had an additional week to prepare.
If you like LSU’s chances of winning, your best bet might be to grab them to make the playoffs. They’re priced at +220 on FanDuel, while Alabama is -140. That doesn’t make a ton of sense with the spread on this game sitting at just 2.5 points.
With the stakes as high as they are, the losing coach in this contest should start updating their resume. Kalen DeBoer and Brian Kelly are already on the hot seat, so this could be a “loser leaves town” match in more ways than one.
What About The Rest of the Slate?
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
☕️ Rise and grind. The Week 11 College Football Pregame Show kicks off at 10 a.m. ET.
💰 But who will Derek Carr throw to? Ulrich drops the Week 10 NFL Player Props.
🥊 It’s Prates vs. Magny and more Best Bets For UFC Fight Night.
🚀 Lots of points = good things for NFL bettors. One bettor cashes in on Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson to each throw 4+ touchdown passes.
🏀 Can anyone knock off UConn? Coach Gene Clemons highlights some college basketball futures to consider.
Best Bets for College Football Week 11
by Thor Nystrom
Below is one of my best bets for College Football Week 11, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.
Because the College Football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately—as they happen—into our College Football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.
Note: “Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full College Football Game Model based on my projections.
Onto the picks!
Washington State vs. Utah State
Adjusted Thor Line: Wazzu -23.5
Utah State’s defense is unthinkably bad, ranking dead-last in the FBS in SP+. That defense has allowed 50-or-more points in three of four games, and 45-plus in four of five. It is unsightly against both the run and pass, and it coughs up big plays as generously as it rolls out the red carpet for efficiency.
Utah State has played only three offenses around the same quality as Washington State’s No. 29 SP+ attack—USC, Boise State, and Utah. In those three games, Utah State coughed up 49.3 PPG. That is a reasonable expectation for Wazzu’s output here.
Washington State runs at high-tempo, and its offense is equally adept at running and passing, thanks in large part to breakout dual-threat star QB John Mateer.
Utah State’s pass-happy offense has had its moments this fall. But after losing WR Jalen Royals—a Day 2 NFL Draft prospect—to a season-ending injury, the offense is devoid of star power. It was a devastating injury to the offensive plans of one of the pass-happiest teams in the nation.
This matchup provides an opportunity for the 7-1 Cougars to flex their muscles, and we expect them to do so.
Thor’s Bet: Wazzu -20.5
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