In this breakdown of my Commanders vs Eagles predictions for the NFC Championship matchup, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.

I also …

  • Provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.).
  • Highlight any potential best bets I have on the game.
  • Note any players I like to outperform expectations.

Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”

And be sure to check out my Chiefs vs Bills predictions for the AFC Championship.

Obligatory notes.

Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of Sat., Jan. 25, 12:30 a.m. ET.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.

You can get 10% off your FL+ sub with the promo code FREEDMAN.

And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Commanders vs Eagles NFC Championship Betting Odds

  • Spread & Total: PHI -6 | O/U 47.5
  • PHI ML: -278 (DraftKings)
  • WAS ML: +240 (BetMGM) 

Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

A spread of -6 means the Eagles need to win by at least seven points to cash. If the Commanders win outright or lose by no more than five, they cash. If the Eagles win by exactly six, it's a push. A total of 47.5 means that 48 or more points cashes the over and 47 or fewer points cashes the under. A -278 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $278 to win $100; a +240 ML, $100 to win $240.

Just a typical NFC East matchup, amirite?

This will be the third time this year these teams have played, and so far the 2024 series has been evenly split.

  • ATS: 1-1
  • ML: 1-1
  • O/U: 1-1

As one might expect at this time of the year, the large markets for this game look efficient.

Eagles vs Commanders Implied Team Totals

  • PHI Team Total: 26.75
  • WAS Team Total: 20.75

Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.

Projections for NFC Championship Eagles vs. Commanders

Eagles vs Commanders Betting Projections

  • Spread: PHI -6
  • Total: 48.1
  • ML: +/-248.8

Commanders vs Eagles Final Score Prediction

  • Eagles: 27.0
  • Commanders: 21.0

I know what my projections say, and that score is very much possible … but here's my "informed gut" projection: PHI 27, WAS 23.

Eagles vs Commanders Projected Odds to Win

  • Eagles: 71.3%
  • Rams: 28.7%

Eagles Player Projections for NFC Championship

Quarterback

PlayerCompPaAttPaYdPaTDINTRuAttRuYdRuTDFP
Jalen Hurts17.125.4189.71.270.48.637.60.6219.4

 

Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

PlayerRuAttRuYdRuTDRecReYdReTDFP
Saquon Barkley22.5121.20.812.1150.0920
Kenneth Gainwell1.98.60.070.75.10.012.2
A.J. Brown0004.664.50.4311.3
DeVonta Smith0004.653.20.4110
Jahan Dotson0000.98.80.051.6
Johnny Wilson0000.22.20.030.5
Dallas Goedert0003.5360.236.7
Grant Calcaterra0000.44.40.030.8
E.J. Jenkins0000.10.60.010.1

 

Fantasy points are half-PPR scoring and based only on statistics shown. They do not include fumbles, two-point conversions, and miscellaneous TDs. Player order is by position and depth chart priority.

For our player-focused betting tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as our Player Prop Edge Table.

Commanders Player Projections for NFC Championship

Quarterback

PlayerCompPaAttPaYdPaTDINTRuAttRuYdRuTDFP
Jayden Daniels20.430.3212.71.360.599.850.50.2719.4

 

Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

PlayerRuAttRuYdRuTDRecReYdReTDFP
Brian Robinson10.345.70.3817.50.028.2
Austin Ekeler5.825.60.22.823.40.077.9
Jeremy McNichols1.25.20.030.42.30.011.2
Terry McLaurin0.10.304.659.10.4711.1
Dyami Brown0.21.10.013.340.30.27
Olamide Zaccheaus0002.5270.154.8
Jamison Crowder0001.210.60.072.1
Luke McCaffrey00.200.43.90.020.8
Zach Ertz0003.3310.326.7
John Bates0000.76.40.031.2
Ben Sinnott0000.11.20.010.3

 

Top Fantasy Plays for NFC Championship Eagles vs. Commanders

Eagles Fantasy Rankings

Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Eagles in their skill-position groups for the Conference Championships.

Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor. 

For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.

This team is loaded at the skill positions … although the passing attack for the Eagles is vulnerable, as Hurts (knee) is dealing with an injury and has been a modest passer this season, especially since the team's Week 5 bye.

Commanders: Fantasy Rankings

Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Commanders in their skill-position groups for the Conference Championships.

What's most impressive about Daniels' rookie season—in my mind—is not what he has done individually but what he has enabled the Commanders to do collectively. He's a true elevator of his surrounding talent, and that's borne out in these rankings.

NFC Championship Eagles vs. Commanders #RevengeGames

The Commanders selected Jahan Dotson with the No. 16 pick in the 2022 draft, and he had a promising rookie season with 35-523-7 receiving, but his modest 49-518-4 campaign last year resulted in the Commanders insultingly sending him to the division rival Eagles this offseason in a low-stakes pick swap.

With a fury, he showed the Commanders what they're missing in their two games this season, as he annihilated them with 1-8-0 receiving on two targets.

Zach Ertz played for the Eagles for 8.5 seasons and made three Pro Bowls with the team before they traded him to the Cardinals in his ninth season for a fifth-round pick and backup DB.

After 2.5 years in the desert and a hot minute on the Lions in the postseason, Ertz signed with the Commanders this offseason, and in his two games against the Eagles this year he has put the fear of the football gods into them with 7-59-1 receiving and a two-point conversion.

I mean, I guess that's not nothing.

Betting Records and Trends for NFC Championship Eagles vs. Commanders

Eagles 2024 Betting Records

  • ATS: 12-7, 21.0% ROI | Favorites: 9-7, 7.2% ROI | Home: 5-5, -4.1% ROI
  • ML: 16-3, 32.0% ROI | Favorites: 13-3, 14.1% ROI | Home: 9-1, 19.5% ROI
  • Under: 11-8, 10.9% ROI | Home: 7-4, 22.3% ROI

Betting performance data is via Action Network.

The Eagles have been profitable to back ATS and ML this year … but they've been better as underdogs and on the road than as favorites and at home.

Commanders 2024 Betting Records

  • ATS: 12-6-1, 26.0% ROI | Underdogs: 5-2-1, 31.7% ROI | Road: 5-4-1, 5.1% ROI
  • ML: 14-5, 56.4% ROI | Underdogs: 5-3, 103.6% ROI | Road: 7-3, 75.3% ROI
  • Over: 12-7, 20.7% ROI | Road: 6-4, 14.7% ROI

The Commanders have been one of the league's most successful teams for bettors this year, especially on the ML, where they have absolutely crushed as underdogs and on the road.

Eagles Betting Trends

  • HC Nick Sirianni & QB Jalen Hurts: 35-32-2 ATS, 0.0% ROI | 49-20 ML, 7.5% ROI
  • Sirianni & Hurts at Home: 18-14-1 ATS, 7.1% ROI | 25-8 ML, 3.3% ROI
    Sirianni & Hurts as Favorites: 27-25-2 ATS, -1.0% ROI | 18-32 ML, 8.1% ROI
  • Sirianni & Hurts in Division: 9-10-2 ATS, -9.4% ROI | 15-6 ML, -6.2% ROI
  • Sirianni & Hurts in Playoffs: 3-4 ATS, -19.0% ROI | 4-3 ML, -20.4% ROI
  • Sirianni & Hurts vs. Winning Teams: 21-13 ATS, 18.4% ROI | 23-11 ML, 7.8% ROI

With Sirianni and Hurts, the Eagles have generally been better at winning than covering, and they've been their best at home and against teams with records above .500, but in division and postseason they've been net losers.

Commanders Betting Trends

  • HC Dan Quinn: 52-56-1 ATS, -6.3% ROI | 60-49 ML, 9.6% ROI
  • Quinn on Road: 25-28-1 ATS, -8.3% ROI | 30-24 ML, 29.3% ROI
  • Quinn as Underdog: 25-17-1 ATS, 15.0% ROI | 22-21 ML, 48.1% ROI
  • Quinn in Division: 18-19 ATS, -4.7% ROI | 22-15 ML, 20.2% ROI
  • Quinn in Playoffs: 5-2 ATS, 36.5% ROI | 5-2 ML, 88.7% ROI
  • Quinn vs. Winning Teams: 26-19-1 ATS, 11.1% ROI | 25-21 ML, 32.3% ROI

I tend to be somewhat skeptical of coaches who provide a markedly higher ROI by winning than covering, and it's debatable whether Quinn's record without QB Jayden Daniels is relevant … but throughout his career, Quinn has provided value on the ML, and he's 100% on the positive side of his splits on the road, as a dog, in division, in the postseason, and against a team with a winning record.

Eagles vs. Commanders Injury Report and External Factors

I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.

Eagles: Notable Injuries

  • QB Jalen Hurts (knee): Practiced fully on Thursday and Friday and enters the weekend with no injury designation.
     
  • WR A.J. Brown (knee): Ditto.
     
  • C Cam Jurgens (back): Missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday but got a limited session on Friday, so he has a chance to play through his questionable tag.
     
  • CB Quinyon Mitchell (knee): Exited last week early but finished with consecutive full practices and has no injury designation.

The potential absence of Jurgens is a concern, but the Eagles are about as healthy as a team can be at this point in the year. Not to downplay Hurts' injury … but if a QB closes the week with back-to-back full practices and isn't even questionable heading into a game, then I'm not downgrading him in my projections.

Commanders: Notable Injuries

  • RG Sam Cosmi (knee): Out after tearing ACL last week.
     
  • DT Daron Payne (finger, knee): Exited last week early and failed to practice this week.

Cosmi's loss is significant, and Payne seems to be on the doubtful side of his questionable tag.

Eagles vs Commanders External Factors

  • Home-Field Advantage: HFA is cut in half in division, but the Eagles still have an edge in that the Commanders play on a dissimilar natural surface at Northwest Stadium.
     
  • Travel: The journey from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia is easy, but the Commanders are still playing their fourth straight game on the road while the Eagles are playing their fifth consecutive game at home.
     
  • Rest: The Commanders have a one-day rest advantage coming off last week's Saturday game.
     
  • Weather: The forecast calls for winds of 10 mph and a temperature of 39 degrees.

Eagles vs Commanders Anytime TD Player Prop

  • Zach Ertz Anytime TD: +290 (FanDuel)
  • Proj: 0.32 TDs | +267.6 to Score

In 19 games this year, Ertz has eight TDs and two 2-point conversions.

Over the past eight games, he has six TDs. Over the past four, four.

This year, he was the No. 4 TE in the league with his 29% endzone target share (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report), which has only increased over the past eight games (33%) and four games (38%).

Near the goal line, Ertz this season has benefited from elite usage.

  • Targets Inside the 5-Yard Line: 11 (No. 1 TE)
  • Targets Inside the 10-Yard Line: 14 (No. 1)
  • Targets Inside the 20-Yard Line: 23 (No. 2)

Plus, Ertz is going against his former team in an all-important #RevengeGame.

I probably should've led with that.

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)
  • Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)